Transcript [00:00] Hey everybody, it is Thursday, January [00:02] 15th, 2026, and we have an important [00:05] update about what's going on in Iran. [00:07] Just to recap, President Trump has been [00:10] warning all along that if the Iranian [00:12] regime is killing protesters, shooting [00:16] protesters, or hanging protesters, the [00:18] United States would step in uh would [00:21] step in with military action, and they [00:24] have been killing protesters. We're [00:26] going to get into all of that, but [00:28] bottom line is things are really coming [00:31] to a head. So, let's get right into it. [00:34] So, yesterday, President Trump came out [00:37] with the following statement. [00:40] We've been told that the killing uh in [00:42] Iran is stopping and it's stopped. It's [00:45] stopping and there's no plan for [00:48] executions or ex an execution or [00:50] executions. So, I've been told that on [00:53] good authority. will find out about it. [00:55] I'm sure if uh happens, we'll all be [00:58] very upset, including you. We'll be very [01:01] upset. But that's just gotten to me some [01:05] information that the killing has [01:07] stopped, that the uh executions have [01:10] stopped. They're not going to have an [01:11] execution. [01:12] >> Okay. So, there you have President Trump [01:14] saying that he has he has it on good [01:17] authority that the killing has stopped, [01:20] that they're not carrying out the [01:21] executions. Now, that may or may not be [01:24] true. We don't know. There is actually [01:26] very little direct information coming [01:28] out from the protest now that the Iran [01:30] now that the regime has done a much [01:32] better job at blocking all of the [01:33] internet. And there's a lot of suspicion [01:36] that this report to President Trump that [01:38] the killing has stopped and and that [01:40] they're not executing people is really [01:42] coming from sources that don't want [01:45] America to attack. Again, we don't know [01:48] for sure, but that is the suspicion. And [01:51] in terms of that that pressure on on [01:54] President Trump not to attack, where is [01:57] it coming from? So this is where things [01:59] get super interesting. Have a look at [02:01] this. So Qatar warned that any US [02:04] escalation would be catastrophic for the [02:08] region. Qatar has been pressuring very [02:10] hard for the administration not to take [02:12] any action. A military escalation [02:14] between the United States and Iran would [02:15] have grave consequences for the region. [02:18] Qatar said [snorts] on Tuesday after [02:20] Washington threatened strikes in [02:22] response to a government crackdown. We [02:24] know that any escalation would have [02:26] catastrophic results in the region and [02:28] beyond and therefore we want to avoid [02:29] that as much as possible. So here's the [02:32] Qataris pressuring the United States not [02:34] to do anything. It's also been reported [02:36] that Qatar rejected any use of the of [02:39] any US use of its air base on its soil [02:43] for military action against Iran. Now [02:45] this gets very interesting. The United [02:46] States has its largest base, the [02:48] Sententcom headquarters in the region is [02:53] in Qatar. It's a massive army base in [02:55] Qatar, massive air force base in Qatar. [02:57] And here is here are the Qataris vetoing [03:00] American use of this. Now, at at the [03:03] same time as short-term, we could look [03:05] at that and say, whoa, they could [03:06] actually stop the Americans from doing [03:08] this. And and and President Trump has [03:11] been very careful about his relationship [03:13] with the Qataris. views them as an ally. [03:16] Uh he recently signed an executive order [03:18] saying that if they come under attack, [03:20] he would the United States would defend [03:21] them. But here's the Qataris essentially [03:24] tying the Americans hands, tying Trump's [03:26] hands. So it it could very well be that [03:29] that down the road this could kind of [03:31] backfire on the Qataris because I don't [03:33] think President Trump is going to forget [03:35] the fact that his decisionmaking was [03:38] influenced by the Qataris telling him [03:40] what he can and can't do. Nevertheless, [03:42] the Qataris are pressuring pretty [03:44] strongly. But it's not only Qatar, it's [03:46] also Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia has made [03:48] it known that they will not allow their [03:51] airspace to be used in a strike on Iran. [03:55] And that's super interesting because [03:57] traditionally the Saudis are mortal [03:59] enemies of the Iranian regime. They've [04:01] been at war with each other. Uh the [04:04] Saudi Arabia has been at war with [04:05] Iranian proxies. You know, the Houthis [04:08] and Saudi Arabia have been have been at [04:10] war with each other for years, and it's [04:12] quite well known that the Saudis view [04:14] the Iranians as a major threat. So, that [04:16] leads to the question, why are the [04:18] Saudis [04:20] trying to prevent the Americans from [04:23] carrying out an attack against the [04:24] Iranian regime? It doesn't make any [04:26] sense, right? Don't they hate the [04:27] Iranians? And there's a lot of [04:29] speculation about what the reasoning is. [04:32] reasoning that that made sense to me. My [04:35] first thought was well the Saudis and [04:37] the Qataris also they don't have [04:39] democracies and the last thing that they [04:41] need is some kind of democracy breaking [04:45] out all across the region. And I think I [04:46] said this in my update from yesterday [04:48] and that was my thinking that they it [04:50] was kind of you know political in the [04:53] broad sense in the kind of philosophical [04:55] sense or in the societal sense that they [04:57] didn't really want the you know whatever [04:59] is happening in the Iranian street to [05:01] spread to their own countries but then I [05:04] read a fascinating post by David Worms. [05:07] Now, David Worms was an adviser on the [05:10] Middle East in the first Trump [05:11] administration and in the Bush [05:13] administration and he's been on this on [05:15] the National Security Council and he is [05:18] a senior fellow and the head of the [05:20] Middle East department at the Center for [05:22] Security Policy in Washington DC. He is [05:24] suffices to say that David Worms, if you [05:26] haven't heard of him, you should follow [05:28] him. David Wormser is one of the top [05:32] um he is one of the top experts in the [05:34] Middle East in the world and he put up [05:38] uh a a tweet yesterday and I should also [05:40] I should also point out that he's a good [05:41] friend of mine and um I'm I'm proud of [05:44] that and he put up a tweet yesterday [05:47] about why Saudi Arabia is opposed to the [05:50] United States striking Iran and it's [05:53] absolutely fascinating. So let's take a [05:54] look at that tweet. So here's what he [05:57] writes there. [05:59] He writes, "If Iran falls, Saudi is [06:01] irrelevant because it would change the [06:04] complexion of Iraq too, which would [06:06] create an alternative corridor and [06:09] strategic block that links with [06:11] India/Japan [06:14] to the east, is anchored to post [06:17] Ayatollah Iran and UAE, Iraq, Jordan, [06:20] and then Israel onto Cyprus and Greece." [06:23] Now let me explain what he's saying [06:24] there. Iraq is basically not a country. [06:27] After the after the Saddam Hussein [06:29] regime fell, ever since then it kind of [06:31] became an American protectorate, but [06:33] there's also someah there. It's a bit of [06:36] a mess, but it doesn't really have air [06:38] defenses [06:40] and it can kind of go either way. So, [06:44] Iran Iraq sits just north of Jordan and [06:50] west of Iran, north uh and a little bit [06:52] northeast of Syria. That's where Iraq [06:54] is. And with Jordan being a [06:57] pro-American, pro-western uh kingdom and [07:03] Syria now kind of within the within the [07:06] orbit of the Americans and Israel [07:08] controlling the airspace over that area. [07:10] If the Iranian regime falls and becomes [07:12] pro- West, Iraq also would come into [07:16] that orbit because there'd be no reason [07:18] for them to be to be anti-West at that [07:21] point. And of course thebah there would [07:23] dry up or or be gotten rid of because [07:25] they wouldn't have Iran backing them. [07:28] But the main point that he's making in [07:29] this opening paragraph of this is that [07:32] there would be a corridor a trade [07:34] corridor that goes across from the east [07:37] from India/Japan from the far east all [07:39] the way through to the Mediterranean [07:41] that would make Saudi Arabia relevant. [07:43] More on that in a moment. Let's finish [07:44] what he's saying here. Saudi Arabia is [07:47] far overplaying its hand. Iran is [07:49] strategically 50 times as important as [07:53] Saudi and has one of the globe's most [07:57] talented, industrious, and educated [07:59] populations. We've talked about that in [08:00] our previous updates. If Iran switches [08:02] sides and aligns with the US, the the [08:05] UAE, and Israel, Saudi is rendered of [08:09] marginal importance. [08:11] Some might argue, but the oil. Does [08:13] anyone really think the Saudi regime [08:16] would cut off the only significant [08:17] source of revenue it gets to fund its [08:20] essentially socialist economy, maintain [08:22] its entire national structure, and pay [08:24] all the foreign contractors upon which [08:26] every single aspect of life in Saudi [08:28] Arabia depends. It has no real industry, [08:30] nor has it even educated its population [08:33] sufficiently to have any industry emerge [08:35] beyond the oil sector in the future. [08:39] Now, let me explain what he's talking [08:40] about here. This is really, really [08:41] critical. You see, the United States has [08:47] an interest in creating a trade corridor [08:52] that goes from the Far East all the way [08:54] through to Europe. Okay? And they've [08:56] been working on this plan. The plan is [08:59] called the IMEC Corridor. Let me show [09:02] you this so you so we can illustrate the [09:05] point. Okay? This is the this is the [09:07] plan. The India Middle East Europe [09:09] economic corridor is a plan of the [09:11] United States to connect India and of [09:14] course the Far East connects easily [09:16] easily to India to connect it through [09:19] mostly a land route so that you could [09:20] have you could have trains, you could [09:23] have other ways of shipping things by [09:24] land that would bypass a lot of the [09:27] waterways and go through to Europe [09:29] through America friendly countries. And [09:32] the plan currently is called the Ital [09:34] India Middle East Europe corridor. And [09:36] it goes from India through the UAE [09:39] through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Israel, [09:42] and then onto Cyprus and Greece. And [09:45] this bypasses all of these problematic [09:47] countries. It bypasses Iran, of course, [09:49] which is this mass mass over here. It [09:52] bypasses Iraq. It bypasses Turkey, [09:55] right? And it's and it's a trade [09:57] corridor. And why is the United States [09:58] so hot on creating this trade corridor? [10:01] Because the the Chinese Communist Party, [10:03] the main existential threat to America, [10:07] has a similar plan that they've been [10:09] working on and they've been moving [10:10] forward on called the Belt and Road [10:12] Initiative, which is their trade [10:13] corridor linking the Far East to Europe. [10:17] And that trade corridor runs through [10:19] their allies. It runs through Iran, [10:21] which of course the Iranian regime is [10:23] closely allied with with China, and it [10:26] runs through Turkey. So you have the the [10:29] uh the belt and road initiative. Now if [10:31] China were to achieve its belt and road [10:33] plan to have this land route that links [10:36] the Far East with Europe, that's a [10:38] massive advantage in trade. So the [10:41] United States is trying to create a [10:44] competing corridor, the IMC corridor. [10:48] And as you saw from that map, Saudi [10:50] Arabia is a critical component to the [10:52] IMC corridor. But Saudi Arabia is always [10:55] kind of hedged and they're like they're [10:56] sort of pro-western. They're, you know, [10:59] let's remember that the guys who who [11:01] blew up the World Trade Center and [11:02] al-Qaeda, they used to be based in Saudi [11:04] Arabia, Saudi Arabia was a very [11:06] radicalized Islamic country. And then [11:07] they they shifted and they're going [11:09] through quote unquote reforms. Even [11:10] though their population has not been [11:12] educated toward these reforms, they [11:14] becoming they're becoming closer to the [11:16] West. They're they're critical to the [11:20] IMC corridor so long as there's a [11:22] there's an anti-West Iran. Once Iran is [11:27] not anti-Western anymore, right? You [11:29] know, again, take a look at the map. [11:31] Once Iran is not anti-West, you don't [11:34] need Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia doesn't [11:36] have that leverage anymore. And the and [11:40] the corridor could just run up through [11:42] it could run up through Iran. In fact, [11:44] it's it's even smoother. there's less [11:46] water to get through and Saudi Arabia is [11:49] of course a an Islamic dictatorship and [11:53] therefore it the Americans would very [11:56] likely choose to work with a pro-western [12:00] uh Iran a pro-western postyatollah Iran [12:04] over dealing with the Saudis or at the [12:06] very least they'd have their options and [12:08] therefore and and I'm sorry and also in [12:11] terms of providing uh oil to the west [12:14] Saudi Arabia would become [12:17] would become less important because [12:19] currently Western nations don't buy [12:21] Iranian oil. So the Saudis have every [12:24] interest. Let me boil this down. The [12:26] Saudis actually don't want the Iranian [12:29] regime to fall. They want the Iranian [12:32] regime to be weak but to remain. Because [12:35] as long as the Iranian regime, this [12:37] radical anti-Western, death to America, [12:39] death to Israel regime, remains in [12:41] Thran, [12:43] that means that Western nations won't [12:44] buy their oil, it means that they won't [12:47] be part of the Americans corridor. And [12:49] that increases Saudi Arabia's importance [12:52] and gives them all this leverage because [12:53] the Americans need them and the West [12:55] needs them. If the Iranian regime falls, [12:58] David Worms explains, if the Iranian [13:00] regime falls, the Saudis become [13:03] irrelevant. And that is what they are [13:05] terrified about. So that's the reason [13:08] why the Saudis are are screaming from [13:11] the rooftops that America should not [13:13] attack Iran, saying you can't even use [13:15] our airspace. Apparently, they warned uh [13:18] the other day, I saw a report that they [13:20] warned the Americans that there will be [13:21] a massive spike in oil prices in the [13:24] United States if Iran gets attacked. I [13:26] do not know why that would be the case. [13:28] And if it would be, it would probably [13:29] only be very short term. Let's recall [13:31] that there were also, you know, these [13:34] same voices were screaming that if [13:36] Iran's nuclear facilities were hit in [13:39] the 12-day war in June, there'd be this [13:40] massive spike in oil prices, which of [13:42] course never came. So, it's [13:44] fear-mongering by the Saudis, but as [13:46] David Wormser explains, and I think this [13:48] is a fantastic explanation, [13:51] the Saudis are terrified of losing their [13:53] own power base. Now, it might also be [13:55] true that they're afraid of democracy [13:57] spreading in the region. It's the last [13:58] thing they need. But that's what is [14:01] behind Saudi Arabia's attempt to prevent [14:05] the Trump administration from attacking [14:09] Iran. And we still don't know where this [14:12] is going to go. Again, President Trump [14:14] has been really cozying up to the [14:16] Qataris and the Saudis ever since he [14:17] came into office. And now that they're [14:19] pressuring him not to attack Iran along [14:22] with the more isolationist wing around [14:24] him, very much led by Vice President J. [14:27] D. in the White House who are pushing [14:28] against military action. But on the [14:31] other hand, if President Trump does not [14:34] take military action, then he becomes [14:36] just like Obama who he disparaged the [14:39] other day, making empty threats and not [14:41] fulfilling them. And that's why he has [14:43] to claim [14:44] he has to claim or people around him [14:46] have to claim that the killing has [14:48] stopped. Someone told President Trump [14:50] the killing has stopped. And you saw in [14:51] that video that he's a little skeptical. [14:52] He's like, "Yeah, we'll see. We'll see [14:54] if it's true. We'll look into it." [14:55] because someone's been telling him that [14:57] the killing has stopped. They're not [14:58] executing people, so there's no reason [15:00] to attack, giving giving cover for [15:03] President Trump to not attack and not [15:06] fulfill his threats. So things are are [15:09] really tense right now with kind of a [15:11] standoff, kind of a game of chicken, and [15:13] we're going to see where this is headed. [15:14] We will continue to bring you more [15:17] updates in the coming
