Transcript [00:00] Hey everyone. So, this is Iran update [00:02] number two for Thursday, February 26th. [00:06] If you haven't seen the first Iran [00:08] update that I did today, it focused on [00:10] the Iranian people, the opposition, and [00:14] what moves are being made that indicate [00:17] some chance of regime change or moves [00:20] being made to try to facilitate regime [00:22] change. Again, I am I'm pessimistic [00:25] about regime change here, but actions [00:28] are being taken on the ground, and [00:29] that's what that previous update was [00:30] about. In this update, we're going to [00:32] focus more on what's happening with the [00:34] negotiations between the United States [00:36] andor preparations for war. And at the [00:38] end of the video, we'll talk also about [00:40] what the Iranian proxies in the region [00:42] are up to. Okay, so let's get right to [00:45] it. Iran says agreement with US within [00:49] reach. [00:51] Let's do this. Iran says agreement with [00:53] US within reach as nucle nuclear talks [00:57] nuclear talks begin in Geneva Middle [00:59] East live. And now take a look at what [01:01] it says here. Immediate agreement within [01:03] reach says Iranian adviser Ali Shamhani. [01:06] A prominent adviser to Iran Supreme [01:07] Leader Shamhani is a name you got to get [01:09] familiar with. He's in the midst he's in [01:11] the middle of everything. He suggested [01:13] that an agreement can be reached if the [01:15] negotiations focus solely on Iran's [01:18] commitment not to develop nuclear [01:20] weapons. If the main issue of the [01:22] negotiations is preventing Iran from [01:24] producing nuclear weapons, this would be [01:26] in line with the Supreme Leader's Fatwa, [01:28] his religious edict, and Iran's defense [01:31] doctrine, and an immediate agreement is [01:33] within reach. He added that the Iranian [01:35] foreign minister Abbas Arachi, who is [01:37] leading the talks for Thran, has [01:39] sufficient support and authority to [01:42] secure this agreement. This is a very [01:44] important uh point as we watch the [01:48] dynamics right now. The Iranians are [01:50] insisting, the regime is insisting that [01:54] the only items under discussion are [01:57] nuclear weapons and the lifting of [02:00] sanctions on the regime. They refuse to [02:02] discuss the ballistic missiles. They [02:04] refuse to discuss support for the [02:06] proxies. Uh there was a statement put [02:08] out by the foreign minister saying, [02:10] "Well, you know, we don't really support [02:13] the proxies at all. We just support [02:14] them, you know, politically and morally [02:16] because they're resistance fighters. We [02:19] they're denying they actually support [02:20] them militarily and financially which is [02:22] just absurd. Israel is still [02:24] intercepting and the United States also [02:26] intercepting weapons shipments going [02:28] toah going to the Houthis. It's just [02:31] ridiculous. Of course they support them. [02:32] Iraqibahbah [02:34] we'll get to them in a few minutes. So [02:38] they refuse to discuss the ballistic [02:39] missiles. And the reason this we have to [02:41] keep an eye on this even as these [02:43] negotiations are going on is because [02:45] according to the US officials, the US [02:47] officials have actually been bringing up [02:48] the ballistic missiles more frequently [02:51] in the recent days. President Trump [02:53] brought up the ballistic missiles in his [02:56] uh in a state of the union address where [02:57] he talked about very soon that uh the [03:00] Iranians will have intercont [03:02] intercontinental ballistic missiles that [03:03] could reach the United States. and we've [03:06] seen other US officials bring it up. And [03:08] that's significant not only because of [03:10] the gap between them and the Iranians [03:12] who only want to talk about nuclear, but [03:14] also because President Trump was talking [03:16] only about nuclear for a while in the [03:18] middle of this uh where whereas [03:20] Secretary of State Rubio was bringing up [03:22] the ballistic missiles. And here's a [03:24] report from Reuters from today. Check [03:26] this out. Senior Trump administration [03:28] officials on on Wednesday, that's [03:30] yesterday, made the case that Iran poses [03:33] a major threat to the United States. [03:35] Ahead of Thursday negotiations over [03:37] Thran's nuclear program, US and Iranian [03:40] negotiators are due to meet in Geneva. [03:42] The third round of nuclear talks this [03:44] year. It keeps calling them nuclear [03:46] talks as the US has built up one of its [03:48] biggest military deployments in the [03:50] Middle East ahead of possible strikes on [03:51] the Islamic Republic. [03:54] In his State of the Union speech, [03:56] President Trump accused Iran of [03:58] restarting its nuclear program and [04:00] working to build missiles that soon [04:02] would be capable of reaching the United [04:03] States. as I just mentioned and of being [04:06] responsible for roadside bombings that [04:07] have killed US service members, [04:09] civilians. That's the terrorism. He also [04:11] warned that it'll be a very bad day if [04:12] they don't reach a deal. Great. Rubio, [04:15] Secretary of State Rubio was speaking to [04:18] reporters during a trip to St. Kits and [04:21] he had the following to say. After their [04:23] nuclear program was obl was obliterated, [04:26] they were told not to try to restart it. [04:28] And here they are. You can see them [04:29] always trying to rebuild elements of it. [04:32] They're not enriching right now, but [04:33] they're trying to get to the point where [04:35] they ultimately can. And Rubio said Iran [04:39] also possessed a very large number of [04:41] ballistic missiles that threaten US [04:43] interests in the region and that it was [04:45] trying to develop weapons that can reach [04:46] the continental United States. Beyond [04:49] just the nuclear [04:51] program, they possess these conventional [04:53] weapons that are solely designed to [04:55] attack America and attack Americans if [04:58] they choose to do so. So they already [05:00] possess weapons that can reach much of [05:02] Europe already now as we speak. [05:05] Okay. And Thran's insistence on not [05:08] discussing the topic of ballistic [05:10] missiles in the Geneva talks was a big [05:12] problem, Rubio said, adding that he did [05:15] not want to characterize the Thursday [05:16] talks as anything other than the next [05:20] opportunity to talk, even as he hoped [05:22] for progress. [05:24] Okay. Iran has the largest stockpile of [05:26] ballistic missiles in the Middle East [05:28] according to the US Office of the [05:30] Director of National Intelligence. [05:33] Okay. Um [05:36] yeah. So you see here that that the [05:37] ballistic missiles are actually a very a [05:39] real issue according to the Americans. [05:41] The Iranians are saying they refuse to [05:43] discuss them at all. But you're also [05:45] seeing something else. Notice that in [05:46] Rubio's comments he was emphasizing the [05:49] threat to Americans and American [05:51] interests. didn't mention Israel and and [05:54] President Trump in his State of the [05:55] Union address was talking about how [05:58] the how they're soon going to have [06:00] ballistic missiles that can reach the [06:01] United States. And this is a very [06:03] important narrative point about making [06:06] the case that even without the nuclear, [06:09] Iran is a threat to the US. So Trump [06:11] also brought up, you know, roadside [06:13] bombs that are funded or by the Iranians [06:16] that that have killed Americans over the [06:19] decades. We'll get back to that point in [06:21] a bit because I think it's really [06:22] important. But I I want to play this [06:24] clip that I've played parts of uh parts [06:26] of it before in earlier videos, but [06:29] right now we have to see this clip [06:30] again. It's a short clip of Steve [06:34] Witkoff being interviewed by Lara Trump. [06:36] So, apologies for the repetition. You [06:39] could fast forward it if you know what [06:40] he says, but it's really worth paying [06:41] attention to what he says here in light [06:43] of everything I've just said and what [06:44] I'm going to say after we play the clip. [06:48] So, let's have a look at this. So, the [06:49] future of the Middle East largely also [06:51] depends on what happens in Iran. And I [06:53] know that you've been very deep in talks [06:55] with Iran. Uh we just saw this week in [06:58] in Geneva there was conversation, but [07:00] there have been some very hard red lines [07:02] drawn. The US of course wants to [07:04] dismantle Iran's nuclear arsenal. Iran [07:07] says that is a non-starter. So, based on [07:10] what you've seen in the negotiations [07:12] that that you've been part of, what [07:14] could a deal actually look like with [07:16] this regime? Well, I think the president [07:18] has uh has he gave Jared and I direction [07:21] before we went over there. There were [07:23] red lines, zero enrichment. We have to [07:26] have the material back. You know, they [07:28] say that it's all about their about [07:31] their civil program. And yet they've [07:33] been enriching well beyond the um number [07:37] that you need for uh for civil nuclear. [07:40] It's it's it's up to 60%. They're [07:43] probably a week away from having [07:45] industrial uh industrialgrade [07:49] bomb making material and that's really [07:52] dangerous. So I can't have that. This is [07:54] something that they have to stick with [07:56] until they prove to us that um you know [08:00] they can behave. [08:01] >> I know that you we have red lines here [08:03] from the US. How about over with Iran? [08:05] >> The president asked me that this morning [08:06] and he's I don't want to use the word [08:09] frustrated. It's almost because he he [08:11] understands he's got plenty of [08:12] alternatives, but it's curious. He's [08:15] curious as to why they haven't [08:19] I don't want to use the word [08:20] capitulated, but why they haven't [08:21] capitulated. [08:23] Why under this sort of pressure with the [08:26] amount of um uh sea power, naval power [08:29] that we have over there, why they [08:30] haven't come to us and said, "We profess [08:32] that we don't want to be we don't want a [08:34] weapon. So, here's what we're prepared [08:36] to And yet it's hard to to sort of get [08:38] them to that place. [08:42] >> Okay, you see this [08:44] a couple of very very key points in this [08:48] video. Okay, so let's unpack it a little [08:51] bit. First of all, on the issue of the [08:53] civil nuclear, right? He says they're, [08:55] you know, they're, you know, they insist [08:57] that it's only for civil purposes, but [08:58] they're enriching beyond civil. Okay, [09:01] let's put this issue to rest. I've [09:04] mentioned this article before and I want [09:06] to show it to you right now. Okay, this [09:09] phenomenal piece done months ago during [09:12] this was around the time of the 12-day [09:13] war done by Daniel Greenfield, the great [09:16] Daniel Greenfield of the Horowitz [09:17] Freedom Center u that he that he wrote [09:20] for for JNS. Iran is not building a [09:23] civilian nuclear weapons program. Okay, [09:25] they're not. It's insane. And he lays [09:27] out the case very well. You should read [09:29] this piece. It's from May. from before [09:30] the June war when all the negotiations [09:32] were going on. And he and I'm just going [09:35] to read you a couple lines from this. [09:36] Iran has some of the cheapest [09:38] electricity prices in the world. The [09:40] average cost of electricity in the [09:42] United States per kilowatt hour is 18. [09:46] In Iran, it's um [09:50] a four. It's 0.004. [09:54] Okay. So 04 of a cent. Okay. Okay. 04 of [09:58] a cent. That's what it is. So, a country [10:01] where electricity is vastly cheaper than [10:03] America's is not looking to lower costs. [10:04] And he goes on to explain that you're [10:07] talking about a country that is one of [10:09] the richest countries in terms of oil [10:11] and natural gas. One of the richest [10:13] countries in terms of oil and natural [10:14] gas. Yes, Iran has an electricity [10:16] crisis, right? The people don't have [10:18] electricity and they're complaining no [10:19] electricity and that's part of the [10:20] economic collapse. Why don't they have [10:23] electricity? Because they don't care. [10:25] They prioritize exporting. They export [10:27] electric electricity to Iraq. They [10:30] export oil and natural gas to countries [10:33] around. Okay? The only reason they don't [10:36] have enough electricity is because they [10:37] don't bother investing in the [10:39] infrastructure and the refinement that [10:40] they need to produce electricity for [10:43] their own people. They could not care [10:44] less. Okay. What's more, [10:48] having an electricity crisis [10:50] domestically gives them cover for their [10:53] nuclear program. You follow? Oh, you [10:55] might say, "What? That's insane." So [10:56] they're going to starve out their people [10:58] from electricity just as cover for the [11:00] nuclear program. This is a regime that [11:01] murdered 32,000 according to Trump's [11:05] number. 32,000. It could be higher, it [11:07] could be low. I don't know what the [11:08] number is. Tens of thousands of their [11:09] own people murdered them in cold blood [11:12] just to suppress the protest. They don't [11:14] care using their people as cannon fodder [11:16] is what they do. [11:20] They don't have a nuclear program. And [11:21] one of the best points that Greenfield [11:22] makes in the piece is that having the [11:26] nuclear program has caused sanctions on [11:29] the country and they've lost an an [11:31] estimated trillion dollars from the [11:35] sanctions because they have a nuclear [11:37] program. If they wanted cheaper and more [11:40] abundant energy, they would and they [11:42] have again they are an oil and natural [11:44] gas producing nation. They would simply [11:48] invest in refinement and in [11:51] infrastructure to use their own vast [11:54] resources to provide more energy for [11:56] their people. And that would be way [11:58] cheaper than the trillion dollars [12:00] they've lost in sanctions because they [12:02] have a nuclear program. Okay, let's put [12:03] this to bed. It's worth reading this [12:05] piece. It's worth saving it. You could [12:07] you could search for Daniel Greenfield [12:09] and Iran isn't building a nuclear a [12:12] civilian nuclear program. You can just [12:13] put that in. It's on JNS. It's again [12:15] it's from back in May. It don't buy the [12:19] argument. It it's not even a [12:21] possibility. They are not interested in [12:22] civilian nuclear energy. Okay, good. [12:24] Let's move on. Now, the other thing that [12:27] that Wickoff said there that was so [12:29] important. Okay, and and and we can't [12:32] and we can't ignore this. And this is [12:33] this is the main, you know, jaw-dropper [12:36] of that clip. And that's why I keep [12:38] coming back to it. I don't just keep [12:40] coming back to it. I keep thinking about [12:41] this clip. I I can't believe Wickoff [12:43] said what he said on TV. I I'm not sure [12:45] if he got in trouble for saying it, [12:47] saying that President Trump is [12:48] frustrated or curious. [12:52] Why haven't they uh why haven't they [12:54] capitulated? You know, all of this [12:56] firepower that Trump's bringing into the [12:58] region, why haven't you know that Trump [13:00] is frustrated? [13:02] Why haven't they capitulated yet? And [13:04] said, "Okay, we'll make a deal." This is [13:07] the strategic miscalculation that Trump [13:09] is making and Witco just let it out of [13:11] the bag. Now, I wrote an op-ed. I wrote [13:13] a column in the Jerusalem Post last, it [13:16] was published last week where I laid out [13:18] the Iranian strategy. I'm going to put [13:20] it in one simple sentence. The Iranian [13:23] regime believes that the chances that [13:25] the regime collapses [13:28] are greater if they capitulate to the [13:31] demands in the negotiations than if they [13:33] absorb a US military attack. Period. And [13:38] therefore, there's no reason for them to [13:40] capitulate. Not that they welcome an [13:42] attack. Of course, it'll be it'll be [13:44] difficult to you know this is a they're [13:47] making a calculation based on riskreward [13:50] like which where's the risk greater and [13:52] they believe that the risk is greater if [13:54] they capitulate to the demands of the [13:56] Americans that that will cause them to [13:59] be much much weaker domestically and of [14:02] course they all they are also [14:03] ideologically committed to [14:07] to destroying Israel etc. But the main I [14:11] believe the main strategic calculation [14:13] is that they see all they care about is [14:15] the survival of the regime. That's all [14:18] they care about. If you read their you [14:20] read their media as I do, you'll see [14:22] that that that's all they care about. [14:24] The survival of the regime. That to them [14:26] is victory. After the 12- day war, they [14:27] declared victory. Why? And they even [14:29] said because the goal of the Americans [14:31] and the Israelis was to topple the was [14:33] to topple the well they don't call [14:35] themselves the regime. And they [snorts] [14:37] and they failed. Okay, that's how they [14:39] define things. They So they believe that [14:43] giving into the American demands is a [14:46] worse option than absorbing the military [14:48] strikes. They also have as part of their [14:50] calculation, I I laid this out in the [14:52] column, and this is also important right [14:54] now in this moment, as I'll I'll show [14:56] you some headlines in a moment, but they [14:58] believe that President Trump doesn't [15:01] actually want to attack as Whit Whit [15:04] just let it out of the bag. Trump is [15:05] frustrated that they haven't [15:06] capitulated, which means that really [15:08] he's bringing all these weapons and all [15:10] these assets in there, but he doesn't [15:11] want to attack. He wa he wants them just [15:13] to capitulate and give in and and he's [15:16] getting frustrated that they're not [15:18] doing so. They understand Trump. They [15:21] know that he doesn't want any US [15:23] casualties. None. And he doesn't want [15:26] any entanglements and he doesn't want [15:27] any long-term wars and he doesn't want [15:29] any escalation. And therefore that's [15:32] everything that they are threatening [15:34] because they want to put more and more [15:35] pressure on Trump to back off and give [15:38] into them. So let's take a look at the [15:42] confirmation we have of this. Take a [15:43] look here. This is a political story [15:45] from yesterday. Look at this. This is an [15:48] amazing story. White House officials [15:50] believe that the politics are a lot [15:52] better if Israel strikes first. H [15:56] interesting. Who wants Israel to make [15:58] the first move? senior adviserss to [15:59] President Donald Trump would prefer [16:02] Israel strike Iran before the United [16:04] States launches an assault on the [16:06] country. According to two people [16:08] familiar with ongoing discussions, the [16:09] Trump administration officials are [16:11] privately arguing that an Israeli attack [16:14] would trigger Iran to retaliate, helping [16:17] muster support from American voters for [16:19] a US strike. The calculus is a political [16:21] one. that more Americans would stomach a [16:24] war with Iran if the if the United [16:26] States or an ally were attacked first. [16:30] Recent polling shows that Americans and [16:32] Republicans in particular support regime [16:34] change in Iran, but are unwilling to [16:36] risk any US casualties to achieve it. [16:40] Look at that. That means Trump's team is [16:43] considering the optics of how an attack [16:45] is conducted in addition to other [16:47] justifications such as Iran's nuclear [16:50] program. [16:53] Aha. So this the poll they're talking [16:57] about was done by Breitbart. It was done [17:00] was a Breitbart exclusive that Americans [17:03] want to topple the Iranian regime but [17:05] are unwilling to risk even a single [17:07] American life to do so. And if Trump's [17:09] people have this poll in their sights [17:12] and or this sentiment, not just I'm not [17:15] saying the exact poll, but if that's [17:16] what they're thinking, we want to figure [17:18] out a way to do this in a way that we [17:20] don't have any US casualties. [17:23] Look, war brings casualties. When Israel [17:25] went into Gaza, they didn't assume that [17:27] there'd be no Israeli casualties. Okay? [17:30] But the US, [17:32] you know, the sentiment in the US about [17:34] this is like this poll says, they're not [17:37] going to be able to stomach any US [17:39] casualties. And that means the the [17:41] Iranians, that's part of their [17:43] calculation. That's part of why they see [17:46] absorbing absorbing military strikes, [17:48] going to war as a better option than [17:50] capitulating because if they capitulate [17:52] to the demands, they're weak. If they go [17:55] to war, they absorb some attacks. as [17:57] long as they can remain in power and and [17:59] and and the regime doesn't fall. And [18:02] it's very difficult to topple a regime [18:04] like the Iranian regime. This is not [18:06] I've said this many times. This is not [18:07] like Iraq or or uh or Libya or Syria [18:11] where there's one little family they [18:13] get, you know, Assad flies to Russia, [18:15] Syrian regime is gone. Does not work [18:17] that way. The Iranian regime is not [18:19] going to be so simple to bring down. So [18:20] their calculation is that if they can [18:23] absorb the attacks [18:26] and cause any US casualties, any [18:28] American casualties anywhere, [18:31] that they have a better chance of [18:32] surviving. Now, let's talk about those [18:33] US casualties because that's that's the [18:35] subject right here. You see, [18:39] after the attacks [18:42] the in the 12-day war, the B2 bomber [18:44] attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, [18:46] after that, the Iranians retaliated. [18:49] remember that they let the Americans [18:51] know in advance and they fired at some, [18:53] you know, they didn't cause any US [18:55] casualties. They warned them. Same thing [18:56] after Sulammani was killed in Trump's [18:58] first term. They fired at some empty [19:00] buildings and they gave a warning in [19:01] advance. They're not going to do that [19:03] this time [19:05] because if the goal of the attacks is to [19:08] bring down the regime, they're going to [19:10] literally fire at US assets. And these [19:13] American soldiers and all these [19:15] different bases around the region, they [19:16] don't have Iron Dome. They have they [19:20] have some defenses against missiles, but [19:22] they're not they're nowhere near [19:23] airtight. And the Iranian regime is [19:26] going to be desperate. They're going to [19:27] be firing in all directions. And if any [19:30] US casualties are caused, what's that [19:32] going to do to the Trump administration? [19:33] What's that going to do to this [19:34] calculation? [19:36] [snorts] What's going to what? Right. [19:37] Think about the Breitbart poll that [19:39] we're looking at here. What's that going [19:40] to do with this? Right. [19:44] Unwilling to risk even a single American [19:45] life to do so. So the Iranians are never [19:48] going to capitulate. There's no reason [19:50] for them to. [19:52] And what's more, we have these other [19:53] voices and Iran strikes threaten to [19:56] deplete US weapons and supplies and put [19:58] American troops at risk. So this is uh [20:00] Pentagon officials and Hill lawmakers [20:03] are are worried. General Dan Kaine, the [20:06] Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair, has raised [20:08] concerns about the military shortage of [20:10] air defense interceptors. That's exactly [20:12] what you need for missile defense on all [20:14] these American assets. since January, [20:17] according to a person familiar with the [20:18] conversations. But fears have magnified [20:21] in recent weeks as the Pentagon has [20:22] amassed the largest military buildup in [20:25] the Middle East since the Iraq war. They [20:27] follow a huge expansion of the nation's [20:29] military operations, [20:31] etc. Uh, and then it talks about um, do [20:34] we have enough interceptors to restain [20:36] to sustain retaliation? Said a person [20:38] familiar with the talks. We don't have a [20:40] discreetly focused objective. Is it [20:42] regime change? Is it ballistic missiles? [20:44] There are voices in the administration [20:46] who are raising these concerns. Now, at [20:48] the same time, the Department of War uh [20:52] says that it the Pentagon says that it [20:54] has everything it needs to execute any [20:56] mission at the time and place of the [20:57] president's choosing and on any [20:59] timeline. That was said by spokesperson [21:01] Sean Parnell of the Pentagon. [21:04] Okay. So, so there's all all of these [21:09] fears put together and then you have [21:11] Witoff saying, you know, Trump really [21:12] was hoping that they'd capitulate. [21:15] They're not going to capitulate, folks. [21:17] All right, let's check in now on the [21:20] proxies. Okay, that was the last that's [21:21] the last thing I want to do in this [21:23] video is check in on what's going on [21:24] with the Iranian proxies. So, [21:27] after saying that they would for sure [21:29] join a war, now look at what they're [21:30] saying. Okay, things have changed [21:32] withah. Okay, [21:36] official says, "How do I get this here?" [21:41] Official says, [21:43] "How do I get this headline up?" [21:49] Uh, let's get rid of this ad. Here we [21:50] go. [21:54] official [21:58] says that [22:00] gosh, it will not intervene [22:03] if the if the US strikes Iran. Okay, [22:07] that's the newbah line. I don't know [22:09] what's going on. Oh, here we go. [22:14] Official. I can't get rid of this ad. [22:16] It's so so annoying. Um, okay. It will [22:20] not intervene if the US strikes Iran. [22:22] That's what is now saying. They're [22:23] saying that they will not intervene. And [22:26] the article goes on to say that a kisbah [22:29] official told AFP on Wednesday that the [22:31] Lebanese movement would not intervene [22:34] militarily in the event of a limited US [22:36] strike on its backer Iran, but would [22:38] consider any attack against Supreme [22:40] Leader Ali Kami, a red line, its backer, [22:42] Iran. You see, now it's called its [22:43] backer. The US has repeatedly threatened [22:46] Iran over its contentious nuclear [22:47] program and Lebanese authorities [22:49] fearblah could become involved if the [22:51] potential US attack triggered a regional [22:53] war. But the official told AFP on [22:56] condition of anonymity in the event of [22:58] limited US strikes on Iraniza's position [23:01] will be to not intervene militarily. [23:05] If the group determines, however, that [23:07] the United States is trying to provoke [23:09] the downfall of the Iranian regime or to [23:11] target the Supreme Leader, then they [23:13] will intervene. [23:15] The official predicted that in a [23:17] hypothetical scenario where the US [23:18] attempted to militarily unseat the [23:20] Iranian government, US ally Israel would [23:23] inevitably wage a war against Lebanon. [23:25] You see, sobbah is stuck between a rock [23:29] and a hard place here. They need to [23:31] intervene to help Iran. That's their [23:33] that's their back or that's their arm. [23:34] If they don't, they look impotent. But [23:37] if they do, then they bring hellfire [23:39] down on Iran on the on Lebanon. And the [23:41] Lebanese people have already had it up [23:43] to here withah and and and they need to [23:46] preserve some peace at home with the [23:48] Iranian with the Lebanese government. So [23:51] now we have saying that they won't [23:54] intervene if it's limited strike. So now [23:56] they don't necessarily look weak if they [23:58] don't intervene, [24:00] but because they're saying, you know, [24:02] we're going to, you know, we're going to [24:03] try to stay out of it if the strikes are [24:05] limited. It could also be that the [24:06] Iranians are now seeing that Trump is [24:09] kind of hesitating and talking about [24:11] limited attacks and that maybe and that [24:13] maybe he's getting cold feet. [24:16] It's interesting, but it is interesting [24:17] to see that [24:20] is is is getting is is saying that [24:22] they're going to back that they're not [24:23] going to do anything. What the Lebanese [24:25] fear is a chain reaction, an American [24:27] strike against Iran, [24:29] aisbah retalatory strike against Israel [24:32] followed by massive Israeli response, [24:34] said a Lebanese official. [24:36] Leader Naim Kasim has said that his [24:38] group is in a defensive position. What [24:40] would but would consider itself targeted [24:43] by any US attack on Iran. [24:47] Okay. So, [24:49] so that's where's at giving a little [24:51] mixed messaging. Now, Iraqi, otherwise [24:54] known as Katibbah, condemns US threats [24:57] against Iran, warns of regional [24:59] consequences. I love these guys. Uh, a [25:02] senior security official of Katibbah in [25:04] Iraq has strongly denounced Washington's [25:06] recent military posture towards Iran, [25:08] warning that any American attack would [25:10] ignite serious repercussions across the [25:12] region. They're not saying what the [25:13] repercussions will be. Serious [25:15] repercussions across the region. Okay, [25:16] this is a this is a terrorist group in [25:19] Iraq. In a message published on social [25:21] media platform Telegram on Tuesday, Abu [25:24] Ali al-Scari, the security chief of [25:26] Katzbah said, "Threats issued by the US [25:29] President Donald Trump, along with [25:30] expanded US naval deployments and the [25:33] reinforcement of American bases in the [25:34] region reveal clear preparations for a [25:37] new act of aggression against the [25:39] Islamic Republic and its sovereign [25:40] capabilities." [25:42] Okay, it does. But what's the threat [25:45] here? [25:47] He warned that any attempt by the US to [25:50] exploit Iraqi territory as a corridor [25:53] for attacking Iran would constitute a [25:56] grave violation of regional sovereignty [25:58] and would be confronted decisively. [26:02] Okay. [26:06] Now, [26:08] what happened in the 12-day war was that [26:10] Israel flew its jets through Iraq. Okay. [26:15] It flew them the the route they took to [26:17] Iran was they went up through Syria, [26:19] across Iraq, and then over into Iran. [26:23] Okay. So, uh, and the US has assets in [26:26] Iraq, still does, and in Syria. Uh, and [26:30] so what they're threatening here is [26:32] they're threatening to retaliate. It was [26:36] another statement I saw where they were [26:38] threatening to retaliate against Syria [26:40] [snorts] [26:41] uh because they see that this corridor [26:43] could be used again by the Israelis, by [26:47] the Americans. We'll see how that works. [26:50] But in the 12-day war, they did not lift [26:52] a finger. The entire time the Israelis [26:54] were flying their jets back and forth [26:56] over Iraq, [26:58] Iraqi did nothing. Virtually nothing. [27:00] They sent a few drones over um didn't do [27:03] much. [27:05] And the Iraqi government didn't do [27:06] anything either. It was after the war [27:08] was over that the Iraqi government [27:10] complained to the UN that Israel [27:11] violated their airspace. It was all [27:13] bluster. Anyway, [snorts] [27:15] so the so the proxies, I think, are [27:18] actually uh showing weakness. I don't [27:22] think there's anything to fear from them [27:23] in any real way. The Houthis have have [27:26] been silent over the last couple of [27:27] weeks. They're busy with their own civil [27:29] war. So all these threats of regional [27:31] war, I continue to be convinced, as I [27:35] said weeks ago, that it's all nonsense. [27:37] There's no threat of a regional war. The [27:38] only threat of a regional war is Iran [27:40] with its ballistic missiles firing them [27:42] in all directions at American targets [27:45] and at Israel. That could happen, but [27:47] that's the only escalation that we [27:48] really need to fear here. So that's [27:51] where things stand. I'll keep you up to [27:53] date as best I can as things happen. and [27:56] and right now we're waiting for the [27:57] second round of today's negotiations. [28:00] We're waiting for them to come out. [28:01] We'll see what the statements are later [28:02] today. All right, that's it. Uh talk to [28:04] you guys later. That's the Iran update. [28:07] And uh please keep sharing and [28:09] subscribing and telling people about [28:10] what we're doing on this channel if you [28:12] think it's important. And of course, as [28:15] always, go check out everything we're [28:16] doing at Israel 365 News YouTube [28:18] channel. God bless.
