Transcript [00:00] Well, it's looking more and more likely [00:03] that we're going to see attacks on the [00:05] Iranian regime coming very soon. We [00:08] don't know exactly when it's going to [00:09] be. I think one of the most interesting [00:11] aspects of this is that it's starting to [00:13] get close to Purim, to the Jewish [00:15] holiday of Purim, which of course [00:18] commemorates the victory over the [00:23] genocidal [00:24] Persian decree to wipe out all the Jews. [00:29] death. Does death to Israel sound kind [00:31] of familiar? It's kind of getting [00:32] interesting the way things are [00:33] converging at this moment. But what I'd [00:35] like to do is just take a look at the [00:37] indications that things are getting uh [00:40] much more imminent. But also, first what [00:42] we're going to do is we're going to look [00:43] at a short video that I just saw of [00:47] former Sentcom commander uh Bob, what's [00:51] his name here? Bob Harard. So, former [00:54] SenCom commander Bob Harwood talking [00:56] about what a potential US strike would [00:59] look like. And uh yeah, well, you know, [01:01] let's just watch the clip and then I'll [01:03] I'll I'll share my thoughts. Here we go. [01:05] >> Number one, the missiles. That's their [01:07] really their best ability to project [01:10] power. Number two, then the protection [01:12] of the Straits of Hormuz, the ability to [01:14] mine the waterways and that the naval [01:17] forces that can uh put at risk [01:20] international shipping come bringing and [01:23] taking oil. So those would be my two [01:25] priorities. And then after that I'd [01:27] focus on those elements that really have [01:30] oppressed the people they're on the IRGC [01:33] where their facilities their barracks [01:35] their head command and control those [01:37] would be almost a pecking order of my [01:39] priorities. [01:40] >> Is this all simultaneous or this would [01:42] be over a number of weeks? [01:43] >> Well I get it depends on how they [01:45] respond. One of the things that's really [01:48] happened in our military our capacity is [01:51] unprecedented. So the amount of [01:53] ordinance we can deliver real time and [01:56] over a short period of time is massive. [02:00] >> Can military power alone topple this [02:04] regime? [02:05] >> Well, military power in support of the [02:07] Iranian people. Again, this has to be [02:10] about the internal dynamics of Iran. And [02:14] as we've seen, they've had enough. And [02:16] this regime murdered more people in the [02:19] matter of weeks than we lost in the [02:21] Iraqi Irani war over 15 years in those [02:24] wars. So again, it has to be in support [02:27] of the people and they've shown the [02:29] capacity. They've shown the desire. [02:31] They've been murdered. I think that's if [02:34] these strikes and our military actions [02:36] enable and support that transition [02:38] through the people, then it's effective. [02:41] >> Do you believe these military strikes [02:43] are imminent? [02:44] I'd say they're more likely than not. [02:48] And again, it's it's driven by two [02:51] things. I'd say the negotiation, what [02:53] comes out of the negotiation. I would [02:55] also say how well we understand the [02:57] impact of the internal. I think both [02:59] those dimensions are being assessed at [03:01] the moment and that will define if and [03:04] when we go. But I sense it's more a a [03:08] matter of when, not if. [03:11] >> Okay. So, let's unpack what we just saw [03:14] there. [03:16] Um, I think, you know, one of the one of [03:18] the issues that we've been talking about [03:19] a lot in these updates and in the whole [03:21] leadup to potential strikes on Iran has [03:25] been the issue of how do you actually [03:28] bring down the regime? Because as much [03:31] as people are like, "Oh, we need to end [03:32] the regime. We need to attack." I I've [03:35] been pretty open about the fact that I'm [03:37] not sure how one necessarily leads to [03:41] the other. because you can't bomb the [03:44] regime out of existence. [03:46] But here he really lays out uh how you [03:50] know what an American attack would look [03:52] like. And notice what he said. He talked [03:54] about three goals. Goal number one, [03:58] meaning the three priorities, hitting [04:01] the ballistic missile capabilities, [04:03] because as he put it, that's Iran's best [04:06] opport uh uh ability to project power is [04:12] the ballistic missiles, right? Because [04:13] they don't have a nuclear program that [04:14] was devastated in the 12-day war. [04:16] There's pieces of it left. And of course [04:18] the negotiations if you you know in the [04:21] in the media they you know everyone's [04:22] saying that the negotiations are [04:24] focusing on that the enriched uranium [04:26] what do you do with that and are you [04:28] going to be committing not to have [04:29] nuclear weapons and blah blah blah. But [04:31] the truth is the biggest threat that [04:33] that Iran poses is its ballistic [04:36] missiles. The ballistic missile threat [04:37] is formidable and it's actually gotten [04:40] stronger since the 12-day war. [04:44] So he puts as priority number one, [04:46] taking out the ballistic missile threat. [04:48] And the ballistic missile threat is [04:50] really the only threat to anyone else in [04:52] the region, whether it's American assets [04:54] or Israel. It's the ballistic missiles [04:55] that are the big issue. There's also [04:57] been reports that the Iranians are [04:58] moving some of their equipment and some [05:01] of their ballistic missiles u or and and [05:04] other things personnel towards the Iraqi [05:07] border which would put them closer to [05:10] striking distance to Israel uh through [05:12] Iraq through Syria in that direction. [05:15] Uh but it's the ballistic missiles that [05:17] are the big that are really the big [05:19] threat. So he so this former Sentcom [05:22] commander says the first thing we got to [05:24] hit is the ballistic missiles. The [05:26] second thing is the um possible mining [05:29] of the Straits of Hormuz. Let me explain [05:31] that. The Straits of Hormuz are a [05:33] critical shipping lane that Iran has the [05:37] ability to close. During the 12-day war, [05:40] they tried to close the Straits of [05:41] Hormuz. They actually briefly closed the [05:43] Straits of Hormuz. and the Chinese [05:45] Communist Party, Iran's alleged ally, [05:47] forced them to reopen them. Okay? And uh [05:52] and they just conducted the Iranians [05:54] just closed them briefly the other day [05:56] to conduct a joint naval drill with the [05:59] Russians. So they're projecting power. [06:01] They're flexing their muscles, basically [06:03] reminding everyone that they have the [06:04] ability to to close the Straits of [06:06] Hormuz. So number two on his list of [06:09] priorities is is making sure that the [06:11] Straits of Hormuz [06:13] uh any dangers any any dangers posed by [06:16] the Iranians by the IRGC in the Straits [06:19] of Hormuz are neutralized. And then he [06:21] said number three on the priority list [06:23] is hitting regime targets. And he [06:25] specifically mentioned the headquarters [06:27] of the IRGC, the various places where [06:29] they have their personnel and their [06:31] leadership. and that would create the [06:34] conditions that would make it easier for [06:36] the Iranian people to support the [06:37] Iranian people in the potential downfall [06:40] of the regime. Now, that's the best uh [06:44] that's the best case scenario I've heard [06:46] for how the regime falls. But remember, [06:48] even in that scenario, you cannot bomb [06:51] the regime out of existence. You can [06:52] only create conditions that can help the [06:55] regime fall. Now, let's take a look at [06:57] some other things that are going on [06:59] here. uh the Jordanians, you know, one [07:03] of the impacts of this is that the Arab [07:05] partners, the Muslim partners or not [07:08] partners but uh neighbors in the region [07:10] are all getting really really skittish. [07:12] So we already saw a few weeks ago where [07:14] the Saudis and the Qataris who both have [07:16] significant American bases in their in [07:19] their territory declared unequivocally [07:22] that the United States cannot use [07:25] their territory to launch attacks. The [07:28] Jordanians have made noises about the [07:30] same thing. Uh, and they're kind of [07:32] getting stuck because there have been a [07:34] lot of reports of large amounts of [07:36] American weaponry uh of uh American [07:40] planes and uh and and uh and and attack [07:44] uh choppers, attack helicopters being u [07:48] being flown into Jordan. So, let's take [07:49] a look here. Uh we have this headline in [07:52] Wet. Don't want to be part of the storm. [07:53] Jordan fears becoming battleground amid [07:56] US Iran tensions. Satellite images show [07:58] more than 60 US strike aircraft at the [08:01] Muafak al-Salti air base as Aman [08:04] reiterates it will not allow its [08:06] territory or air or airspace to be used [08:09] for attacks despite its deepening [08:12] security ties with Washington. So this [08:13] is getting really interesting. Okay, so [08:17] Jordan is approaching a possible [08:18] escalation with Iran as a country at the [08:20] heart of the storm, but one that does [08:22] not want to be a part of it, a Jordanian [08:25] source said Saturday, hours after [08:28] satellite images showed dozens of US [08:30] fighter jets at Muafak al-Salti air base [08:33] in the kingdom. So, this is a big US air [08:35] base in Jordan. Quote, "Officially, Aman [08:38] confirms it will not allow the use of [08:41] its territory for any attack in a clear [08:43] attempt to establish neutrality and keep [08:45] the country away from the line of fire." [08:48] Now, this is really interesting because [08:51] the Qataris and the Saudis when they [08:53] said weeks ago that they would not allow [08:55] weeks ago they said they would not allow [08:56] the US to use their their bases, we [08:59] haven't seen a buildup in US bases in [09:04] those territories. Jordan also said [09:06] this, but the US is building up their [09:09] equipment there. Okay. The comments came [09:11] after the New York Times published [09:13] satellite images of the air base located [09:15] about 100 kilometers east of Aman. The [09:18] images taken by an Airbus satellite [09:20] showed more than 60 strike aircraft, [09:22] including F-35 stealth jets, as well as [09:26] 68 cargo planes that have arrived since [09:29] Sunday. So, just this week, 60 cargo [09:31] planes. And we're talking about F-35s. [09:35] Additional fighter jets were seen parked [09:37] under protective shelters. [09:39] The Times described the base as becoming [09:41] a key hub in US prepar preparations for [09:44] an attack. [09:46] Public opinion in Jordan is of course [09:47] against the Jordanians being involved [09:51] and this is a very sensitive issue. [09:53] Jordan is watching the situation [09:54] carefully. Earlier this month, Jordan's [09:57] foreign ministry and foreign minister [09:59] said uh foreign ministry said foreign [10:01] minister Iman Safadi spoke with his [10:03] Iranian counterpart Abasar Raki. They're [10:06] trying to keep you know relations uh as [10:09] peaceful as possible there. Safadi also [10:11] said Jordan will not be a battlefield [10:13] for any regional conflict or a launching [10:16] point for any military action against [10:17] Iran. [10:19] Okay. Uh they will not let anyone use [10:21] their airsp. They're not going to let [10:23] anyone use their airspace. [10:25] and they made similar statements in June [10:27] 2025. Now, in June 2025 for the for the [10:30] 12-day war, Israel did not use Jordanian [10:32] airspace. Is the the route that the [10:35] Israeli fighter jets flew to carry out [10:38] all their sorties attacking Iran was up [10:42] into Syria from Israel and then across [10:45] Iraq into Iran. They avoided Jordanian [10:48] airspace at the time. It was also [10:50] interesting the way the Iraqis reacted [10:52] because during the entire 12-day war, [10:54] the Iraqis didn't say anything and then [10:56] only after like they didn't complain [10:58] even once, but then after the war was [11:01] over, after the 12-day war, they [11:03] registered a complaint with the UN [11:05] against the Israelis for using their [11:07] airspace, which which I thought was just [11:08] comical because they didn't complain the [11:10] whole 12- day war, but they didn't want [11:13] to lose face to their other Arab [11:16] countries. So after the war was over, [11:17] they you know they complained about it. [11:20] Um now here's an interesting comment [11:23] towards the end of this article. Despite [11:26] these statements, the United States [11:27] maintains access to several military [11:30] bases in Jordan from which it can [11:31] operate. Quote, "There appears to be a [11:34] contradiction, but we should recall the [11:36] second Gulf War in 2003," said Professor [11:39] Ronitsk, head of Middle East studies at [11:42] Western Galilee Academic College and a [11:44] researcher at Tel Aviv's Tel Aviv [11:47] University's Dian Center. Quote, "During [11:49] the US war against Iraq, this is in [11:51] 2003, Jordan served as a central staging [11:56] ground. The United States used bases and [11:58] deployed patriot systems inside Jordan. [12:02] said Jordan likely plays a significant [12:04] role despite official declarations. [12:07] Quote, "In the end, there is a system of [12:09] interests and strategic considerations, [12:11] including improving relations with the [12:13] United States, increasing security [12:15] assistance, integration into diplomatic [12:18] frameworks, and other benefits Jordan [12:20] can expect as happened after 2003." He [12:23] noted that while the United States has [12:26] broad access to to Jordanian bases, the [12:29] primary buildup appears concentrated at [12:32] Muafak al-Salti. [12:35] Okay. Meanwhile, the National Interest [12:36] reported in recent days that military [12:38] ties between Jordan and the United [12:39] States have strengthened over the past [12:41] year. Okay. They're they've been [12:43] deepening their strategic partnership. [12:45] Okay. Now, let me give you my take on [12:48] what this all means. Okay. Jordan is [12:51] different than the Qataris and the [12:52] Saudis with regard to Iran. [12:55] Okay. The Jordanians, [12:58] the Jordanian government, the king of [13:00] Jordan, Abdullah, they actually want [13:04] good, good relations with the West. They [13:06] already have a peace deal with Israel. [13:08] They don't want to be in anyone's [13:09] crosshairs. They're not trying to [13:11] pressure the Americans. [13:13] That's Jordan. And they've been [13:14] deepening the ties with the Americans. [13:16] They get a lot of aid from the United [13:17] States, right? like Qatar and Saudi [13:19] Arabia don't get aid from the United [13:21] States. There's bases there, but they [13:22] don't get aid. Jordan is really in the [13:26] US orbit. Now, the Saudi when the Saudis [13:30] and the Qataris say you can't use our [13:32] bases, [13:34] my take is that America is going to [13:36] honor that [13:38] because the Saudis and the Qataris [13:40] actually don't want the Iranian regime [13:42] to fall. The Iranian regime falls, it's [13:45] devastating to them. I've explained this [13:47] in a few previous videos. [13:49] The Saudis [13:51] are the big big losers in the region [13:54] other than the the the you know the [13:56] Mullers in Iran themselves, but they're [13:58] the big losers in the region if the if [14:00] the Iranian regime falls. If the Iranian [14:02] regime falls and Iran becomes a [14:03] pro-western [14:05] uh state [14:07] because of the land mass and the [14:09] population size and the fact that [14:10] they're a major oil producing nation and [14:12] they'd be aligned with the West where [14:14] they're located in terms of global trade [14:16] routes, in terms of uh regional [14:17] security, they render the Saudi Arabian [14:20] kingdom basically irrelevant or far less [14:24] relevant, not much of a strategic asset. [14:26] Right now, the Saudis are this huge [14:28] strategic asset. And that's why the [14:30] United States and the West are [14:31] constantly courting them and and they [14:33] get to kind of, you know, lure them in [14:35] and play both sides. And that's why the [14:37] Saudis are always switching sides [14:38] because they're a major strategic asset. [14:40] Everyone wants the Saudis on their side [14:41] because Iran is such a pariah. Iran [14:44] ceases to be a pariah. And suddenly the [14:47] land corridor across the region can run [14:49] through Iran and you have a you have an [14:51] oil producing nation that's pro-western. [14:53] Saudi Arabia is not so important [14:55] anymore. So they don't want the regime [14:57] to fall. They want the regime to remain [14:58] in power. They they're happy with it [15:00] being weak. They've never gotten along [15:02] with them that well, but they don't want [15:04] the regime to fall. Qataris also don't [15:06] want the regime to fall. Qataris don't [15:09] gain from the Iranian regime falling. [15:11] They have a kind of quiet working [15:12] relationship with them when it comes to [15:14] Islamism and terrorism across the [15:16] region. They don't want the regime to [15:17] fall either. But the Jordanians probably [15:21] do want the regime to fall. they [15:23] probably benefit from a more western [15:25] aligned Middle East. And therefore, what [15:28] I believe is happening here is that the [15:30] Jordanians are saying, "We don't want [15:33] you to use our space. We are against us. [15:35] We are against us. We are against us." [15:36] Because they have to say that to save [15:38] face because all the all the uh all the [15:42] regional actors who have American bases [15:44] are all saying that and they can't make [15:46] and they can't appear to be cooperating [15:49] with the Americans. So, they're saying [15:50] we don't want to use our space. We don't [15:51] want to you we don't want you to use our [15:53] space. [15:55] But if there's confidence by the [15:57] Jordanians that the Americans will be [15:59] successful in bringing down the Iranian [16:02] regime or delivering it just a a mortal [16:05] blow and also important neutralizing [16:09] Iran's capabilities to retaliate against [16:12] American assets in the region, which is [16:13] what they'd be afraid of, meaning [16:15] ballistic missiles getting launched at [16:17] them. [16:21] Then if they're confident that they're [16:22] that they're actually safe from [16:24] consequences when when an attack [16:27] actually happens, they probably don't [16:29] mind their territory being used for to [16:32] bring down the Iranian regime. Because [16:33] if the Iranian regime is weakened or [16:35] actually falls, especially if it [16:37] actually falls, then they really have [16:38] nothing to worry about. Who's going to [16:40] retaliate against them? Who's going to, [16:42] you know, who's going to punish them for [16:43] having for having allowed the Americans [16:45] to use their territory? So they're [16:47] messaging that they don't want the [16:48] Americans to use their territory, but [16:50] they're really just going to acquies. [16:52] They can't say no to the Americans. The [16:53] Americans have a have a leverage over [16:55] them that they don't have over Saudi [16:56] Arabia and Qatar. So for all these for [16:59] all these reasons that I've just laid [17:00] out, I believe that the Jordanians are [17:04] just saying that they don't want um that [17:07] they don't want the United States using [17:09] their territory, but they actually are [17:12] happy to have their territory be used. [17:14] Now, at the same time, look at this. [17:16] This relates to what we just said and [17:17] this is in Middle East monitor and um [17:21] which is a kind of pro-Arab site. US [17:23] evacuates hundreds of troops from Qatar [17:26] Bahrain amid Iran tensions. This is from [17:30] yesterday. Okay, so look at this. [17:33] Hundreds of US troops have been pulled [17:35] out of Aluade air base in Qatar. The New [17:37] York Times reported Friday. So this is [17:39] just a couple days ago. After all these [17:41] weeks, the US troops have been remained [17:43] there. they've now they've pulled them [17:45] out of Qatar, citing anonymous Pentagon [17:47] sources. The report also said forces [17:49] have been evacuated from Bahrain where [17:51] the US Navy's fifth fleet is based. [17:53] American forces remain stationed at [17:56] bases in Iraq, Syria, Kuwait, Saudi [18:00] Arabia, Jordan, and the United Arab [18:02] Emirates. The withdrawal is being [18:04] interpreted as a precautionary measure [18:06] amid rising tensions about a possible US [18:09] attack on Iran with Tehran expected to [18:11] respond by striking American forces in [18:14] the region. Sentcom, which covers Iran [18:17] and much of the surrounding region, did [18:19] not respond to a request for comment. [18:22] And [18:24] um in a letter to the UN Secretary [18:26] General, the head of UR Iran's mission [18:29] to the UN said that all bases, [18:31] facilities, and assets of the hostile [18:33] force in the region would be legitimate [18:35] targets and the US would bear full [18:36] responsibility. [18:38] And uh yeah, so they're evacuating [18:40] aloud. Aloud is the US's biggest base in [18:42] the Middle East with 10,000 troops and [18:45] they're starting to evacuate them. And [18:47] meanwhile on another front in in the if [18:51] you know this update is all about how [18:53] everyone's preparing for the strikes in [18:54] Iran the potential strikes Israeli [18:57] strikes kill at least 10 in Lebanon [18:59] officials say. So here what Israel's [19:01] been doing to prepare for potential [19:02] strikes against Iran is neutralizing [19:07] because the proxy of Iran who sat it out [19:10] during the 12-day war has been told in [19:13] no uncertain terms by their bosses in [19:15] Tehran that they ain't sitting this one [19:17] out. Uh you know if if Naim Kasam the [19:19] head ofah sits this one out too. If the [19:24] last thing he want then then he's dead [19:26] either way. If the regime falls, he's [19:28] dead because has no has no lifeline [19:31] without the Iranian regime. And if the [19:32] regime survives and he didn't help, then [19:36] he's dead, too. So, he's stuck. But [19:39] meanwhile, the Israelis are neutralizing [19:40] them. Israeli air strikes have killed at [19:42] least 10 people in eastern Lebanon. [19:43] Israel's military said it targeted sites [19:45] belonging to a Shia Muslim militia and [19:48] political party in the Becca Valley. [19:50] Great. Now, um and confirmed it as well [19:55] in a statement. The Israeli military [19:57] said it had struck what it described as [20:00] command centers and that the group [20:02] systematically embeds its assets within [20:04] the civilian population. In a separate [20:07] statement on Saturday, the Israeli [20:08] military said it had eliminated several [20:10] terrorists of missile array in three [20:14] different command centers recently [20:16] identified as operating to accelerate [20:18] the organization's readiness and force [20:20] buildup processes while planning fire [20:23] attacks towards Israel. Okay. [20:27] Um, and then there's of course the whole [20:29] issue of the fact that was supposed to [20:31] be disarmed and they refused to. [20:33] Lebanese prime minister now Salam [20:36] recently said the situation had become a [20:38] one-sided war of attrition, blaming the [20:40] Israelis basically. And um, yeah. So, so [20:44] that is where things stand. So, so let's [20:48] just sum up what we have here. We have [20:50] uh we saw former Sentcom commander [20:53] giving us a sense of what an American [20:55] strike would look like, neutralize the [20:56] ballistic missiles, deal with the [20:58] Straits of Hormuz so that the Navy can [21:00] operate freely and start hitting regime [21:02] targets. So to facilitate the weakening [21:06] of the regime such that number one, they [21:09] don't have the ability to strike [21:10] American assets, go for the ballistic [21:12] missiles first and also create the [21:15] conditions where the regime can fall. [21:17] And meanwhile, we have the Jordanians [21:19] kind of playing this game. We see a [21:21] massive buildup in Jordan while retreat [21:24] happening from Qatar and Saudi Arabia. [21:26] And the Jordanians saying, "Don't use [21:28] our space. Don't use our space." I don't [21:30] believe them. And finally, we have uh [21:34] what Israel is doing to prepare by [21:36] neutralizing [21:38] in Lebanon. So, that's where things [21:39] stand right now. I believe that attacks [21:42] are imminent. So, a lot of people do, [21:43] but we do not know. As I've said over [21:45] and over again, Trump uh has a doctrine [21:48] of unpredictability and he seems to be [21:50] sticking to it. All right, that's it for [21:52] now. Please make sure to check out all [21:54] the good content we're putting up at [21:55] Israel 365. We're just finishing up in [21:57] Nashville, Tennessee, where we've been [21:59] busy all week at the National Religious [22:01] Broadcasters and there's a lot of great [22:03] content from that up on the Israel 365 [22:06] News YouTube channel. So, keep watching [22:09] and keep sharing and telling people [22:11] about this channel. Thank you so much [22:12] for helping us grow the channel. God [22:14] bless.
