Transcript [00:00] Yes indeed. This is yet another update, [00:04] war update for today. This is March 1st [00:07] and I want to focus on two issues in [00:10] this video and they're both brought up, [00:12] they were brought up backtoback in a [00:14] briefing done today by Brigadier General [00:17] Amir Avivi who is the head the founder [00:21] of the Israel Defense and Security Forum [00:23] known in Hebrew as Habitistim. It is a [00:26] think tank and a forum mostly made up of [00:29] former senior officers in the IDF and it [00:32] is really the premier defense and [00:35] security think tank in Israel and Amamir [00:38] Vivi does these amazing briefings uh [00:40] every so often and he brought up two [00:43] issues backtoback in this briefing [00:46] today. So let's go ahead and watch the [00:47] clip and then uh I have uh I have some [00:50] comments to make about it. Here we go. [00:53] So here's Amir Avivi. [00:55] >> General, I'm curious if you can kind of [00:57] compare this to the 12-day war of last [00:59] year and how, you know, the aspirations [01:01] of this war are seem to be much greater [01:03] ultimately with the regime change. Um, [01:06] but is this just a bigger 12-day war? [01:09] Israel and the US are hitting more [01:10] military sites or or is there something [01:13] dramatically uh different this time [01:15] around? [01:16] >> It's very different. First of all, you [01:17] know, having both countries fighting [01:21] together side by side, this is a [01:23] completely different scenario [01:27] and the the [01:30] amount of airplanes and capabilities [01:33] that are being used are on a completely [01:36] different scale. So is the goal a change [01:39] of regime is not attacking some military [01:42] sites. It's a whole different thing. [01:44] It's about really eliminating all the [01:46] leadership. It's about destroying all [01:48] centers of government, its [01:50] communications. [01:51] It's about um the basic forces and uh [01:55] also [01:57] we're talking about revolutionary [01:59] guards. [02:01] Um we're talking about destroying the [02:04] Iranian navy which President Trump [02:07] talked about. [02:09] Um so it's a completely different kind [02:12] of uh operation and what we see is that [02:16] um [02:17] this time [02:19] uh the US is not calling immediately the [02:22] Iranians to go out and uh and storm you [02:26] know their centers of government. We [02:29] don't want to endanger them again and [02:32] have tens of thousand people killed. We [02:34] first want to really [02:38] degrade dramatically the capabilities of [02:40] the basic forces and the revolutionary [02:42] guards [02:44] and dismantle them as much as possible [02:47] and only then call for the people to [02:50] rise and fight for their country. It's [02:52] it's obvious that in order to have a [02:56] regime change, you need on one hand this [02:59] massive attack. On the other hand, you [03:01] need the Iranian people. You cannot do [03:04] regime change without the Iranian people [03:06] themselves, you know, pushing it and uh [03:09] fighting for it. But they need help and [03:11] they're getting the all the help they [03:12] need to make it happen generally. [03:16] >> Okay. So, let's talk about that first [03:17] issue he raises here, which is the [03:20] regime change issue. Okay. Um, and what [03:24] makes this war different than the 12-day [03:26] war? I thought that was very well put. [03:28] the combined military action by the by [03:31] the Americans and Israelis. We didn't [03:32] see that in the 12- day war. The 12- day [03:33] war was the Israelis and then the [03:35] Americans came in just to do Operation [03:37] Midnight Hammer, taking out the nuclear. [03:39] And here you actually have a combined [03:41] attack by the two militaries. Israel is [03:44] providing what it provides, America what [03:45] it provides, and they they have this [03:47] shared battle plan. But the more [03:48] important point that he made here was [03:50] that we're talking here about a regime [03:53] change war. This is so important because [03:56] in the leadup to this, it was all about [03:58] the nuclear, the nuclear, the nuclear. [04:00] And that's what the Americans, a lot of [04:02] the Americans were signaling. And [04:03] American media, they're still talking [04:05] about the nuclear weapons and preventing [04:07] the nuclear program. Yeah, that's one of [04:10] the issues. And it was and to a lot of [04:12] people, it was the only real [04:13] justification to go to war. But it's not [04:16] about that. It's about removing this [04:18] evil regime and the whole litany of [04:20] problems that they cause around the [04:22] world and have been causing around the [04:23] world for decades and just changing the [04:25] geopolitical map. That's what's that's [04:28] what it's about. So, if you want to take [04:29] down a regime, it takes a lot more uh it [04:33] takes a lot more than what it than what [04:35] taking out the nuclear, which was the [04:36] goal of the 12-day war was the stated [04:39] goal was. But what's so interesting is [04:41] what he said there about how they [04:43] actually have not called, meaning the [04:45] Israelis and Americans are not really [04:46] calling for the people to go out into [04:48] the streets just yet because you don't [04:50] want to endanger them. Very interesting [04:52] point. I've been mentioning that we're [04:54] kind of waiting to see how are the [04:56] people going to react. Are they going to [04:57] step up to bring down the regime? But [04:59] here Amiri makes a great point. We don't [05:01] want them out there yet. The United [05:03] States and Israel have a lot more work [05:05] to do degrading the IRGC, degrading the [05:08] besiege. If you remember the besiege, [05:09] those are the shock troops that are [05:11] there to kind of put down all the [05:13] protests. They're like the gestapo [05:15] of the, you know, the stormtroopers of [05:18] the Iranian regime. [05:20] We still have a lot of work to do. [05:21] Meaning we the Americans and Israelis [05:23] still have a lot of work to do. [05:24] Degrading the IRGC, degrading the [05:26] besieged forces, taking out leadership, [05:28] and really bringing the regime to a [05:31] point that then when the people are [05:33] called out into the street, it could [05:35] actually be much more successful and [05:37] they won't be in danger. if they come [05:38] out into the if if the people come out [05:40] to the street too early, there could [05:42] still be besiege and IRGC that could [05:44] that could shoot people that could put [05:46] down the riots and that could actually [05:47] embolden the regime that they have a [05:49] chance of survival. So, it's an [05:51] interesting uh game here that perhaps [05:53] it's better that the people actually [05:57] wait a bit before they go out into the [06:00] street. And along those lines, you see [06:02] here that Trump uh said today, this is a [06:04] fairly recent story. He said that the [06:07] military campaign against Iran could [06:08] last for four weeks or less. Here it [06:11] says US President Donald Trump says the [06:13] US military campaign undertaken in [06:15] partnership with Israel could extend for [06:17] four weeks. Quote, "It's always been a [06:19] four-week process. It's a big country. [06:20] It'll take four weeks or less." Trump [06:23] told the Daily Mail, commenting on the [06:26] war's first three deaths of American [06:27] service members. Trump said, "We expect [06:30] that to happen. Unfortunately, it could [06:33] happen again." This is huge. Trump is [06:36] really signaling and messaging to the [06:38] American people that there will be [06:40] casualties. Don't hold up casualties and [06:42] panic when there's a few casualties as a [06:45] as a way of saying we have to stop this. [06:47] We have to get out of here. We're going [06:48] to see a big political fight on the [06:51] right in the America First movement in [06:53] the coming days over this issue. I [06:55] guarantee it. He says Operation Epic [06:57] Fury, the US name for the operation, is [06:59] proceeding as planned. and he said that [07:02] they've killed they've likely killed 48 [07:05] of Iran's top leaders. He says he's [07:08] getting ready to give another address to [07:09] the nation on the ongoing Iran strikes. [07:13] He's hopeful that democracy will spread [07:14] in Iran, but a lot of things could [07:16] happen. A lot of very positive things [07:19] could happen. Okay, so that was the [07:20] first issue I wanted to talk about from [07:22] this interview, from this briefing by [07:24] Amamira Vivi. And now he gets into an [07:26] issue that I've been talking about a [07:28] lot. If you watch my channel, you watch [07:30] the Israel 365 channel and that is the [07:32] behavior of the proxies, the Iran's [07:36] proxies. Here we go. [07:39] >> And can you give us an update about the [07:41] proxies [07:42] the Houthis? What is their level of [07:44] involvement as of right now? [07:47] It's very interesting to see that at the [07:49] moment they're not fighting. [07:51] Kizala said if [07:54] Kabay will be targeted or if they will [07:58] Israel and the US will try to do a [08:00] regime change they will attack and and [08:02] they didn't. I think they're very very [08:04] deterred and frightened from the power [08:08] you know that is being used against [08:12] Iran. And by the way, even if they don't [08:14] shoot at all, we have to deal with them [08:17] and we'll have to dismantle them. So now [08:20] we are focused on Iran and um we really [08:23] want to [08:25] um win decisively and they have a regime [08:28] change. But the moment we finish with [08:31] Iran, we have to deal with the Houthis [08:33] and with [08:35] one way or another. It's either they [08:36] dismantle because they lose Iran or we [08:40] have to deal with them. We cannot have [08:42] them staying and building their [08:45] capabilities the way Iran did. This is [08:48] not going to happen. Israel will [08:49] maintain freedom of operation to deal [08:52] both with the Houthis and the Hisbala [08:55] and the militias in Iraq. There will be [08:57] a moment that will deal with them also. [08:59] >> And then in terms of understanding, [09:02] >> okay, [09:06] so let's check in on these uh on these [09:08] proxies here. Lebanon's vows to confront [09:11] the aggression of the US and Israel. [09:12] This is a statement made today. Look at [09:14] this. Lebanese terror groups vows to [09:16] confront the United States and Israel [09:18] over their strikes on the group's key [09:19] backer Iran. Quote, "We will undertake [09:23] our duty of confronting the aggression [09:25] of the US and Israel." [09:27] Chief Naim Kasim said in a statement, [09:30] adding that they would not leave the [09:31] field of honor and resistance. Okay. [09:36] mourns Kami but stops short of joining [09:39] the Iran war. So they're talking tough. [09:41] Lebanon's on Sunday mourned the killing [09:43] of Iran Supreme Leader Ali Kami but [09:46] stopped short of announcing it would [09:47] join the ongoing war alongside Thran. So [09:50] here you have a statement from them [09:53] saying that they will confront the [09:55] aggression but they haven't really said [09:57] that they're rejoining the war and they [09:58] haven't or that they will join the war [10:00] and they haven't joined the war. Okay. [10:02] um they pledged to continue the path of [10:05] resistance and reaffirmed support for [10:07] Iran but did not announce any direct [10:09] military involvement in the conflict. [10:12] See so there they don't know what to do [10:14] and there was this great piece in wet in [10:17] the Israeli in the Israeli media why an [10:20] analysis piece why is holding back for [10:24] now. So let's take a look at this. We [10:26] start to understand the situation. A [10:28] carefully defined division of roles has [10:29] been set between Lebanon's president and [10:31] prime minister. President Michael Aun, [10:34] Michelle Aun, sorry, maintains direct [10:36] contact with the country's military [10:37] command. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam, [10:40] who's actually closer toah, has declared [10:42] a neutral policy regarding the attack on [10:44] Iran. In between standsbah which has [10:48] warned that any strike on Iran supreme [10:50] leader would be considered a red line [10:52] and said it would it will enter the [10:55] fighting only if it is directly [10:57] attacked. What does a red line mean? [10:59] Okay. Um and Israel of course continued [11:03] to to attack uh [11:07] weapons depots and and bases in the days [11:11] leading up to this war. The president [11:13] and prime minister sent clear signals to [11:17] not to join the war. [11:20] Look what it says here. Despite those [11:21] appeals, residents of southern Lebanon [11:23] near the Israeli border remain [11:25] unconvinced. On Saturday, meaning right [11:27] after the war started, they started [11:28] traveling northward, afraid that would [11:31] enter the war and bring Israeli air [11:33] strikes onto South Lebanon. [11:36] A Beirut resident who asked to be [11:38] identified only by his initials said [11:40] food shortages have worsened in Lebanon. [11:43] Has taken control of the bakeries in [11:45] Beirut, [11:47] excuse me, and other northern areas, he [11:50] said, as well as fruit and vegetable [11:52] markets. Residents wait in the streets [11:54] for delivery trucks, and those who can [11:56] afford it buy the goods at inflated [11:58] prices. This is how is making money now. [12:01] They've taken control of the fruits and [12:03] vegetables and the bakeries and they're [12:05] jacking up the prices to gouge people to [12:08] make money. Okay, that's what is doing [12:11] now in South Lebanon. So, they're not [12:12] endearing themselves to the people. [12:14] Lebanon's leadership is closely [12:16] monitoring US and Israeli strikes and [12:18] Iran's response, keen to avoid appearing [12:21] aligned with Israel. At the same time, [12:24] observers say there appears to be an [12:25] understanding between Israel's security [12:27] establishment and the presidential [12:29] palace. Aoon himself served as Lebanon's [12:32] army commander until about a year and a [12:34] half ago when he was appointed president [12:36] and he maintains close working ties with [12:39] the current army chief. Okay, [12:43] response remains on hold. They've [12:45] signaled that they will not act unless [12:48] there's a major blow against them and [12:50] they will not intervene as long as [12:52] Kamayi is not harmed. They view an [12:55] assassination attempt against Kamayi [12:59] as a red line. But even following the [13:01] reports that Kami was killed, they [13:03] didn't they didn't join the attacks. [13:06] Okay. [13:09] Um between sirens in Israel and Persian [13:12] Gulf states, Lebanese army troops have [13:14] been working to deepen their control [13:15] south of the Latani River. So the [13:16] Lebanese army is now taking advantage of [13:19] this situation and they're trying to [13:21] gain more control south of the Latani [13:23] River. Meaning the Lebanese army is is [13:27] trying is trying to [13:29] displace [13:32] from being the force in the south of [13:34] Lebanon. That's what they're trying to [13:35] do. The army chief has publicly signal [13:37] that forces are prepared to move to a [13:39] second phase of disarmament north of the [13:43] river. In practice, however, [13:44] coordination between the Lebanese army [13:46] andbah has been reported in some cases. [13:49] Um the army generally avoids friction [13:52] withah given its limited capabilities [13:55] and the delicate balance because kind of [13:57] like a party in Lebanon and they control [14:00] part of the population. So there's [14:01] always this dance that they do. The [14:03] Lebanese army is trying to gain control [14:05] of the country. They're supposed to be [14:06] disarming but they don't really want to [14:08] go to war with it. [14:10] So what we see here is that u is that is [14:15] kind of stuck not attacking saying they [14:18] will join saying they're going to they [14:21] vowed to confront the aggression but [14:24] they've been warned not to join in by [14:25] the Lebanese government and they're kind [14:28] of you know paralyzed right now. the [14:32] what meanwhile in Iraq is actually [14:35] attacking. They've launched a series of [14:37] drone attacks. Iran Iranianbacked [14:39] militias in Iraq have launched a series [14:41] of drone attacks targeting US bases in [14:44] Iraq. And you know because the US still [14:47] has personnel there. There's a whole [14:48] bunch of different groups with, you [14:51] know, with uh hard to pronounce names in [14:54] Iraq that are backed by the Iranians. [14:58] And it seems that they've now woken up [15:00] because the the the US has carried out [15:04] some attacks against them. The US [15:06] military has facilities in Iraq [15:08] primarily in the Kurdistan region. And [15:10] this this this makes this a little bit [15:12] more interesting. So what's happened [15:13] here? First, let's get a sense of the [15:16] lay of the land. Okay. Many of these [15:18] militias are part of the Iraqi [15:20] government's par paramilitary forces [15:22] even though they're also backed by the [15:23] Iranians. that makes it kind of [15:25] confusing or you know they're they're [15:27] they're part of the Iraqi army sort of [15:31] but they're also sort of backed by Iran. [15:34] So Katibbahbah [15:37] al- Nujaba and Assib alak are mostly [15:41] sanctioned by the US as terrorist groups [15:44] but they serve Iran but they're also [15:47] part of the Iraqi government. You see [15:48] what a mess this is? In other words, let [15:52] me make this simple. [15:54] Iran kind of occupies [15:57] Iraq to a certain extent. They have a [15:59] similar position there as they have with [16:01] Lebanon. It's different in some ways. [16:03] It's similar in other ways, but they [16:05] fund, they back, the Iranians back a [16:09] whole bunch of these jihadist militia [16:10] groups in Iraq who also function kind of [16:13] as parties in the government and even as [16:15] part of the military, which means that [16:17] Iran has a hold on Iraq. One of the [16:20] effects of the Iranian regime falling, [16:23] if it does fall, will be kind of the [16:26] liberation of Iraq. Not that Iraq is [16:29] going to become like this free [16:30] Jeffersonian democracy. What I mean is [16:32] that they will no longer have their [16:34] decisionmaking [16:36] um be under the thumb of the Iranians. [16:39] And that means that Iraq will will be [16:41] able to actually make its own decisions. [16:42] We don't even know where Iraq stands. [16:44] Ever since Saddam Hussein fell, it's [16:46] been kind of occupied by different [16:48] people. the Americans partially, the [16:50] Iranians partially, and it hasn't really [16:52] been an independent state. There are [16:54] some 100,000 men in these militias. [16:57] Okay. In northern Iraq, there are [16:59] Kurdish dissident groups who oppose the [17:02] Iranian regime. Okay? And here he gives [17:05] the names of some of them. So, because [17:07] there's these Kurdish militias in near [17:11] the Iraq border, okay? and they're [17:14] opposed to the Iranian regime. They want [17:16] Kurdish independence. [17:18] And there's a group, and I mentioned [17:20] this in one of my updates, I think [17:21] yesterday, that these these groups of [17:24] Kurds have banded together and they're [17:25] getting ready to, you know, to pick at [17:29] the carcass of the Iranian regime, as it [17:31] were, or to aid the fall of the Iranian [17:33] regime. They're gunning for some sort of [17:34] independence. So, they're anti-Iranian [17:37] regime. So, what did these militias do? [17:40] They've not only targeted the uh US [17:43] forces, they've also targeted the [17:45] Iranian dissident group. So the Kurds in [17:48] Iraq who are opposed to the Iranian [17:51] regime have become targets of the [17:55] pro-Iranian militias in Iraq. [17:59] Kind of like a little proxy battle, a [18:01] little proxy attacking enemies of the [18:04] Iranian regime in Iraq on behalf of [18:06] Iran. That's kind of so that's the way [18:10] the Iraqi [18:12] the Iraqi uh militias backed by Iran [18:17] have sort of jo uh joined the war since [18:20] the war began. Some of the Iranianbacked [18:22] militias have appeared mobilized to [18:24] attack US forces. Drones have also been [18:26] launched against the Kurdistan region. [18:30] Okay. [18:31] So uh yeah and there were also drones [18:34] that hit the air bill international [18:35] airport. That's an airport in Iraq [18:39] and uh and and Kurdish headquarters [18:41] there. Okay. So, that's what's going on [18:43] in Iraq. So, they're stirring a little [18:45] bit. The the Iraqi Iran the [18:48] Iranianbacked Iraqi militias are are [18:50] stirring a little bit. They're not quite [18:52] as impotent and paralyzed asbellah in [18:56] Lebanon. [18:58] Okay. Meanwhile, the Houthis, let's [18:59] check in on them. The Houthis made an [19:01] announcement today. The Iranianbacked [19:03] Houthis in Yemen have decided to resume [19:05] missile and drone attacks on shipping [19:07] routes and on Israel in support of Iran. [19:10] Uh-huh. They've made an announcement. [19:12] They're going to start attacking [19:13] international shipping routes. That's [19:15] according to two senior Houthi officials [19:17] who spoke on in condition of anonymity [19:19] because there's no official announcement [19:21] from the Houthi leadership. They've just [19:23] said they're going to start attacking [19:25] international shipping again. Get ready. [19:28] One of the officials said the rebels [19:30] first attack could come as soon as [19:32] tonight. The rebels ceased their attacks [19:34] on the Red Sea shipping route as part of [19:35] a deal with the Trump administration [19:37] that also halted US strikes against [19:40] against the Houthis. Remember that when [19:42] the Trump administration was was uh [19:44] hitting the Houthis to get them to stop [19:46] attacking international shipping in the [19:49] Babel Mandam Strait down there in the uh [19:51] the Horn of Africa. They were attacking [19:54] them to get them to stop attacking [19:56] international shipping. They stopped [19:58] attacking international shipping. It was [19:59] a deal with the Trump administration and [20:01] now they're saying that they will start [20:03] attacking international shipping again, [20:04] but it's not an official statement. And [20:08] the presidential council of Yemen has [20:11] warned the Houthis against escalation. [20:14] The presidential council has warned the [20:16] Houthi militia against engaging in [20:18] dangerous military escalation which [20:21] could drag Yemen into a devastating [20:23] international conflict. The council led [20:25] by President Rashad Alimi condemned [20:28] Iran's attacks on neighboring countries [20:31] and held Tehran responsible for the [20:33] consequences. [20:35] It expressed solidarity with the [20:37] affected countries and called for [20:38] international action to deter such [20:40] violations. The council also reviewed [20:42] efforts to normalize the situation in [20:44] Aden and liberated provinces and praised [20:47] government efforts to improve services [20:48] and security with Saudi support. There [20:52] you go. The Saudis have been attacked by [20:53] the Iranians. The Saudis, as we talked [20:56] about earlier today, are are uh are, you [20:59] know, they were encouraging President [21:01] Trump quietly behind the scenes to [21:03] attack Iran. They hate the Iranians. And [21:06] this presidential council of Yemen is [21:08] backed by the Saudis and they're [21:11] pointing at the Houthis and saying, [21:12] "Don't enter this war. Don't drag Yemen [21:15] into this." Okay. The council supported [21:17] financial and administrative reforms, [21:20] including the approval of the national [21:21] budget, and commended the military's [21:23] readiness to thwart Houthi plots. So, we [21:26] have a little bit of a of another little [21:28] proxy struggle going on where the [21:31] Houthis are backed by Iran. The [21:33] presidential council of Yemen is backed [21:34] by the Saudis. So, we could have another [21:36] little u another little hot spot down [21:39] there in Yemen, uh which is another [21:42] proxy battle in this larger war. Okay. [21:46] There's our check-in on the on the [21:50] Iranian proxies. I hope this uh helped. [21:53] I hope this this clarifies a few more [21:54] things for you. Please make sure to [21:57] share and uh and tell people about this [21:59] channel and and like it and and and and [22:02] drop a comment. Let me know what you [22:03] think of what we're doing on this [22:04] channel. Let me let me know what you [22:05] think of these videos. If there's any [22:06] any questions you have or any topics you [22:08] want me to cover, I try to get through [22:10] the comments. Uh, so I'll uh I'll keep [22:12] reading them although it's been a really [22:13] busy couple days obviously and I'll be [22:15] back with uh you know with more updates [22:17] tomorrow. Please be sure as always to [22:20] check out all the great content we're [22:21] putting up at Israel 365. God bless you.
