Transcript [00:00] I'm going to be very, very blunt. I do [00:03] not like Tom Barrack. I think he's a [00:06] dangerous man. He is the US ambassador [00:09] to Turkey or Turkey as he likes to say. [00:12] And he's also Trump's special envoy for [00:15] dealing with like Lebanon and Syria and [00:18] that whole Turkish area of influence. [00:21] And in my opinion, his advice or if if [00:25] that's the advice that the Americans are [00:27] taking the handling of Syria is one of [00:30] the greatest foreign policy disasters in [00:34] in the current Trump administration [00:36] which has many foreign policy successes [00:38] but the handling of of of Syria has been [00:41] a disaster and a lot of that has to do [00:44] with this unhealthy relationship that [00:46] the United States has with Turkey which [00:48] is exemplified by Tom Barrack. Now, all [00:51] that being said, the reason I bring this [00:53] up is that he spoke yesterday or a [00:56] couple days ago at the Antalya [01:00] a conference. What what what is this [01:02] thing called? It's the Antalya like [01:04] foreign policy conference or something [01:07] in that's being held in Turkey. It's an [01:08] event being put on by the foreign [01:10] ministry of Turkey [01:13] and [01:14] and and he gave a little talk and then [01:16] he took some questions. The whole thing [01:18] is about half an hour long and it is [01:20] filled with appalling, appalling [01:22] statements by Tom Barrack. I could [01:24] actually make a series of videos about [01:26] this. But what I want to do here is just [01:27] play you the first 3 minutes of his [01:30] remarks and then [01:33] and then I'll share my thoughts on what [01:34] he had to say there. So here we go. [01:35] Here's Tom Barrack. [01:37] Lebanon 1949 they had an armistice [01:40] agreement. [01:41] It didn't work. Then 15 years of civil [01:43] war. Then 1979 the Taif agreement. Taif [01:46] agreement by the way, if you go back and [01:47] look is exactly what we're talking about [01:48] now in the ceasefire or peace agreement. [01:51] The Taif agreement didn't work. [01:53] It was a realignment of the confessional [01:57] system and a ceasefire except for [02:00] Hezbollah. [02:01] Hezbollah by the way, we I always get in [02:04] trouble because Hezbollah in American [02:07] parlance and most of the West is a [02:08] foreign terrorist organization. [02:10] Hezbollah in Lebanon is also a political [02:12] organization. The Shiites have 27 seats [02:15] in the parliament. [02:17] So it's the opposite of what there was [02:20] in Ireland of saying we have a military [02:21] organization that needs political [02:24] efficacy. It has political efficacy. [02:26] Then we that didn't work. [02:28] So today in effect in Lebanon there's a [02:31] November 2024 cessation of hostilities [02:34] agreement [02:35] which exactly is the same thing we're [02:37] trying to do now. It's a ceasefire south [02:39] of Latani, disarm Hezbollah. How are you [02:42] going to disarm Hezbollah? [02:44] Shiite, if you did a census there hasn't [02:46] been a census in Lebanon since 1938. [02:49] If you take the Shiites, the Palestinian [02:51] refugees, the Syrian refugees, it's [02:52] probably the majority of the people in [02:54] Lebanon. [02:56] And the Lebanese Sunnis which is the [02:57] majority of the Lebanese armed forces [02:59] are not going to go shoot their cousins. [03:01] Especially at a time where Israel is [03:03] bombarding them which only gives [03:06] efficacy to the reason Hezbollah should [03:08] exist to protect itself from Israel. So [03:10] what what's the answer? The answer has [03:12] got to be underlying prosperity. When [03:14] you have a sovereign nation like Iran [03:18] which is supporting a militia [03:21] you cannot get rid of that militia by [03:24] killing them. [03:25] It's the same philosophy [03:29] in each country. You need to start with [03:31] prosperity from the individual to the [03:33] family to the tribe to the community. [03:35] And this is why [03:37] my humble opinion and I think the my [03:39] boss's opinion [03:41] is left to the region. [03:43] The Abraham Accords eventually is the [03:45] answer and Syria is an experiment [03:47] alongside of Turkey who is allowing them [03:50] to do it. Turkey at which happens to be [03:52] the only real economy in the middle of [03:54] this very complicated region. It's it's [03:57] a real nation. [03:59] People, resources, army. We talk about [04:03] NATO [04:04] being the second largest supporter of [04:06] NATO. [04:07] It is but it's also one of our most [04:10] relevant and important engines now when [04:13] we go to this just in case philosophy of [04:16] saying well law of the seas didn't work [04:17] very well with the straits of Hormuz. We [04:19] also have the straits of Dardanelles. [04:21] So the alliance of saying how do you [04:23] marry these convergent points of view? [04:26] It has to be prosperity. [04:28] It has to be alignment of interests [04:30] where the individual is going to be [04:31] better in giving up points of view and [04:33] religion. Let everybody have their own [04:35] religion. Let them have their point of [04:36] view. [04:37] It's just not happening. [04:41] Okay. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, got to [04:44] tell you [04:45] it's [04:47] infuriating to watch this guy. [04:50] Look. [04:53] Um [04:55] Tom Barrack is a smart a smart man, [04:57] okay? And he knows Lebanon and some of [05:00] what he just said [05:02] has to be taken seriously because of the [05:05] position he holds. But there's so much [05:07] in this clip that needs correcting both [05:09] at the factual level and at a deeper [05:11] level that I want to walk through it [05:13] carefully. Okay, let's start with the [05:14] Taif agreement. He started with that. [05:16] Cuz he invokes it as his central [05:18] historical reference point right at the [05:20] beginning and he gets [05:22] everything almost everything about it [05:24] wrong. First of all, the date. He says [05:26] 1979 the Taif agreement. The Taif [05:28] agreement was signed in 1989 and that's [05:31] not a minor slip. 10 years is a decade a [05:35] decade of Lebanese civil war. He also [05:36] whatever his whole timeline at the [05:38] beginning was off. [05:39] Talk about 1943 and then 15 years of [05:41] civil war. The Lebanese civil war [05:43] started in 1975 [05:46] and went until 1990. Okay, the Taif [05:48] agreement was signed at the end of that [05:50] in 1989. In fact, you know what? This is [05:52] a good this is a good point [05:54] for me to [05:56] make my plug. I use you know, I often do [06:00] it later. I do it at different times in [06:02] the [06:04] in the video. But let me make a plug [06:06] here [06:07] for [06:08] for the Israel 365 news YouTube channel [06:11] because the reason I'm doing this right [06:14] now is because of one particular video I [06:18] want to point out to you. Okay, so first [06:19] of all, you got to be subscribed to this [06:21] channel. Um very important. A lot of [06:24] important content I put up here. [06:26] It's not the same as what goes on this [06:27] channel. And if you go down about it was [06:30] 3 weeks ago, there is a there's a a [06:33] video titled something crazy is [06:36] happening in Lebanon right now. Go find [06:38] that video. What that video actually is [06:41] is a [06:42] it's an explainer video. It's 15 minutes [06:44] long and it will explain to you what the [06:47] Lebanese political system is. And it's [06:50] actually that might sound boring. It's [06:51] not. It's a very interesting story and [06:54] it goes back to the founding of Lebanon [06:56] and explains the whole makeup of Lebanon [06:58] and its political system so that you can [07:00] understand what's actually happening. [07:01] When you hear about the Lebanese [07:03] government and President Joseph Aoun and [07:05] and the Prime Minister and the Speaker [07:06] of the House and the Shiites and the [07:07] Sunnis and the Christians, you know, you [07:09] want to understand Lebanon, watch this [07:11] video and then you can watch Tom Barrack [07:13] again and you yourself will realize how [07:16] off he is. But I I digress. Let me [07:19] let me get back to what I'm saying about [07:21] about his comments here. Okay. [07:23] So again, the Taif agreement was signed [07:26] in 1989, 1989, okay? And getting that [07:30] wrong undermines the entire argument [07:32] he's trying to make. [07:33] But the date is again, getting the date [07:36] wrong is the least of the problems with [07:37] what he says about the Taif agreement. [07:39] He he literally said the Taif agreement [07:41] is quote exactly what we're talking [07:44] about now in the ceasefire or peace [07:46] agreement. Now [07:48] this this comparison doesn't hold up [07:50] under even the most minimal scrutiny. [07:53] I'd argue it reveals that he doesn't [07:55] really understand what the Taif [07:56] agreement was at all. [07:59] The Taif agreement was not a ceasefire. [08:03] It was a comprehensive political [08:05] restructuring of the Lebanese state. [08:08] It redistributed power between Lebanon's [08:11] different religious communities, what [08:12] they call the confessional communities. [08:14] And he did mention that. He said it was [08:16] a a reordering of the confessional. Yes, [08:17] it was. But that's what the Taif [08:19] agreement was. It was an internal [08:21] Lebanese restructuring of their [08:24] political system. Watch the video that I [08:26] just mentioned, it'll explain more. But [08:29] here's the key point. In the Taif [08:31] agreement, it shifted balance away from [08:33] the Maronite Christian presidency which [08:35] had been primary, had been the main [08:37] source of power from the founding of [08:39] Lebanon to a more equitable arrangement [08:42] dividing power between Christians, [08:44] Sunnis and Shiites. [08:47] Okay, [08:48] the Taif agreement rewrote the [08:49] parliamentary formula. It redefined [08:52] Lebanon's relationship with Syria. It [08:54] was a constitutional overhaul of how [08:56] Lebanon governs and governs itself. [08:59] And it was brokered by by Saudi Arabia [09:02] and backed by the Arab League. And [09:04] here's the part that makes this [09:05] comparison truly insane, idiotic. Israel [09:09] was not a party to the Taif agreement. [09:10] They had nothing to do with it. It [09:11] wasn't it didn't involve Israel. Okay, [09:14] there was a Lebanese civil war and then [09:16] they restructured the the government of [09:20] Lebanon and that's the Taif agreement [09:22] and it was brokered by by the Arab [09:24] powers. Israel wasn't in the room. It [09:26] was an entirely internal [09:28] negotiation between Lebanese factions on [09:31] how to how to share power in their own [09:33] state. It had nothing to do with the [09:35] Israel-Lebanon military relationship [09:38] because that wasn't what the Lebanese [09:39] civil war was about. In fact it was so [09:42] far from a ceasefire now between Israel [09:45] and Hezbollah that the Taif agreement, [09:47] the one way that Israel actually came up [09:50] in the Taif agreement is that in the [09:51] restructuring of the Lebanese government [09:53] in the Taif agreement one of the [09:56] one of the clauses in the agreement was [09:58] that the only armed group in Lebanon [10:01] would be the Lebanese Army because there [10:03] was a lot of during the Lebanese Civil [10:05] War there's like the PLO and the Syrians [10:07] came in and there was all these [10:09] different and and in the last 10 years [10:12] in the last 8 years of the Lebanese [10:13] Civil War there was now this new group [10:15] called Hezbollah, okay? So there was all [10:17] these different Lebanese Civil War was [10:19] not one war. It was a lot of different [10:20] skirmishes and a lot of different wars [10:22] that dragged in other powers over the [10:24] course of a 15-year period, okay? [10:27] Far beyond the scope of this [10:28] conversation. [10:30] And but one of the clauses in the Taif [10:32] Agreement was that all armed groups had [10:34] to lay down their weapons. There can [10:35] only be the Lebanese Army except [10:38] Hezbollah. Hezbollah is an exception [10:40] because they're fighting Israel. [10:43] And therefore they can stay armed to [10:45] continue fighting Israel. Literally [10:47] that's in the Taif Agreement. So when he [10:49] said it whatever it's it's insane. Now [10:51] if you can now him saying that the Taif [10:53] Agreement is just like the ceasefire [10:55] deal we have now. I mean it's just [10:57] it's idiotic. Look in November 2024 [11:01] Israel signed Israel and Hezbollah [11:04] entered into a ceasefire or cessation of [11:05] hostilities which is the precursor to [11:08] this ceasefire. You can say that those [11:10] two are very similar. That agreement uh [11:14] and and that ceasefire exists because of [11:16] the military confrontation between [11:18] Israel and Hezbollah. Israel's a central [11:20] party to that conflict. Israel versus [11:23] Hezbollah. The entire geographical [11:25] framework of that ceasefire both in [11:27] November 2024 and now has to do with the [11:30] Litani River, the withdrawal [11:31] arrangements [11:33] uh or or the demand for withdrawal. [11:35] Israel giving conditions under which [11:37] they might withdraw in the future, the [11:39] monitoring mechanisms. That's all [11:42] organized around the Israel-Hezbollah [11:45] conflict, okay? And that was brokered by [11:47] the United States, [11:49] not by Saudi Arabia or the Arab League. [11:51] And there's no power sharing dimension [11:54] of having to do with different Lebanese [11:55] factions. There's no constitutional [11:57] reform in the current ceasefire [11:59] agreement. There's no restructuring of [12:00] the Lebanese government. When when Tom [12:03] Barrack says that these two agreement [12:05] that these two agreements that the Taif [12:07] Agreement and the current ceasefire are [12:09] basically the same thing, he's comparing [12:11] an internal Lebanese constitutional [12:14] settlement with no Israeli involvement [12:16] whatsoever to an Israel-Hezbollah [12:19] military disengagement that has no [12:21] political dimension. The only thing they [12:23] genuinely share is that they both [12:24] involve Lebanon and they both involve [12:26] Hezbollah sort of. [12:28] That's roughly as meaningful as saying [12:30] that two completely different contracts [12:32] are exactly the same because they were [12:34] signed in the same city. [12:37] Or that one of the people was the same [12:39] in signing both of them. [12:41] It's [12:42] He doesn't just have the date wrong. He [12:43] doesn't understand what the Taif [12:44] Agreement was. [12:47] What the purpose of the agreement was. [12:50] Okay, this is but you know something no [12:52] one in the room knows either because [12:53] people don't know anything and they're [12:54] all [12:55] >> You know, they sit on these stages and [12:56] they say and they say these diplomatic [12:57] sounding things. Oh and they oh they [12:59] mention the Taif Agreement in 1949 and [13:01] 1979 and they throw out dates and and [13:03] words and it makes it seem very very [13:06] diplomatic and sophisticated. He doesn't [13:08] know what he's talking about. [13:10] He also framed the 1949 armistice right [13:13] at the beginning there [13:14] as a failed Lebanese political [13:16] settlement because remember this this [13:18] conversation is about Lebanon-Israel, [13:20] okay? So he starts off by saying well [13:22] you know they had an armistice in 1949 [13:24] and that didn't work. What are you [13:25] talking about? The 1949 armistice was [13:29] between Israel and its Arab neighbors, [13:31] Egypt, Jordan, Syria and Lebanon, okay? [13:35] And it was at the end of the first [13:36] Arab-Israeli War. It was a regional [13:39] ceasefire, not a Lebanon not a Lebanese [13:41] governance agreement. And it didn't fall [13:44] apart. Israel was not at war with [13:46] Lebanon after that. After I mean [13:48] officially Lebanon doesn't recognize [13:50] Israel's right to exist so officially [13:51] we're in a state of war. But Lebanon [13:53] after 1949 Israel did not have any more [13:56] wars with Lebanon. [13:58] 1967 Six-Day War, 1973 Yom Kippur War, [14:01] Lebanon wasn't part of those wars. [14:04] What on earth is he what does he mean [14:05] that the 1949 armistice didn't work? But [14:08] he also frames it as a Lebanon-Israel [14:10] agreement which it was not. [14:12] Like treating it as the starting point [14:15] of Lebanon's internal political failures [14:17] tying it to what happens in the Taif [14:19] Agreement which which results from [14:22] the Lebanese Civil War which starts in [14:23] the 1970s because the PLO which had been [14:26] kicked out of Jordan comes into Lebanon [14:28] and starts destroying the country and [14:29] causing internal strife. They these [14:32] things have nothing to do with each [14:33] other. [14:34] Okay, um [14:35] then in this clip you saw that he said [14:38] that he mentioned that the Shiites have [14:39] 27 seats in the parliament. Ooh, good [14:42] little fact to make yourself sound like [14:44] you know what you're talking about. And [14:45] his implication is that Hezbollah [14:48] uh has 27 seats in the parliament that [14:50] that's Hezbollah's political footprint, [14:52] right? Because he's talking about the [14:53] Shiites. He said you know Hezbollah is [14:54] not just a you know you know we call [14:55] them a terrorist group but they're a [14:56] political party, you know, you know, the [14:58] Shiites have 27 seats in the parliament. [15:00] Here's the problem. Those 27 seats [15:02] aren't Hezbollah seats. [15:04] They are Shia seats and they're divided [15:06] between two political parties. There are [15:08] two Shia political parties, Hezbollah [15:11] and Amal. [15:12] And Amal [15:14] actually voted with the rest of the [15:16] government to make Hezbollah's uh um [15:19] armed uh an armed Hezbollah illegal [15:22] meaning Hezbollah Hezbollah's military [15:24] activity is illegal according to the [15:27] Lebanese government and Amal voted for [15:30] that as well. [15:31] Okay? [15:33] So Hezbollah and Amal are distinct [15:35] political organizations with their own [15:37] rivalries and separate political [15:38] identities. Conflating all Shia [15:41] parliamentary representation with [15:43] Hezbollah [15:45] in this context he's because what's [15:48] what's the case he's trying to make? [15:49] He's trying to say that you know you [15:50] can't really disarm it's not so simple [15:51] to disarm Hezbollah. They're a [15:52] legitimate political organization. Look [15:54] they have 27 seats in the parliament [15:56] which they don't. [15:59] And he's trying to inflate Hezbollah's [16:01] democratic legitimacy by saying look you [16:04] have all these Shiites. A lot of the [16:05] Shiites are anti-Hezbollah. [16:08] It's just not accurate. [16:10] Now onto the issue of disarmament where [16:11] he's saying you can't disarm Hezbollah. [16:13] He argues that it's essentially [16:14] impossible. [16:16] And his reasoning, let's remember what [16:17] he said there, is demographic, right? He [16:20] says you have the Shiites plus [16:22] Palestinian refugees plus Syrian [16:24] refugees that probably constitutes a [16:26] majority of Lebanon's population. [16:29] And the Lebanese Sunni-dominated army [16:31] isn't going to go fight their cousins. [16:33] Now excuse me, have you paid any [16:34] attention to the Middle East over the [16:36] last I don't know [16:37] um [16:38] 1400 years? [16:40] Sunnis and Shiites massacre each other [16:43] all the time. [16:44] Then okay that's just a ridiculous thing [16:46] to say. But [snorts] [16:49] now [16:50] but his point about how you know you [16:52] know you have this whole constituency of [16:54] the Syrian refugees and the Palestinian [16:55] refugees and uh [16:58] and [16:59] what is that that's [17:01] what does that have to do with disarming [17:03] Hezbollah? He makes it sound compelling [17:06] on the surface but it confuses [17:08] demographic size with armed political [17:11] will. The Lebanese Armed Forces has a [17:14] mandate to deploy south of the Litani [17:17] River. That isn't a sectarian military [17:20] issue. It's a question of state [17:22] sovereignty. [17:24] And here's what he doesn't mention. [17:26] Since the November 2024 ceasefire [17:30] the Lebanese Army has actually been had [17:32] begun deploying south of the Litani [17:34] River [17:36] a little bit. [17:37] Not it's not nothing but it's not much. [17:40] Basically the picture is far more [17:42] complicated than he's presenting it and [17:43] he's doing it for a very insidious [17:45] reason. He's trying to make Hezbollah [17:47] seem more legitimate and more powerful [17:49] than they actually are. [17:51] And he also says [17:53] and I really want to push back on this [17:54] point [17:56] that you cannot get rid of a militia by [17:57] killing them. He literally said that. He [18:00] presents this as settled wisdom. [18:03] But Hezbollah just suffered the worst [18:04] military losses in its entire history [18:06] over this last couple years. Nasrallah [18:08] is dead. Most of their senior command is [18:10] dead. The organization's military [18:12] infrastructure in South Lebanon has been [18:15] severely degraded. And [18:17] whether sustained Now the question of [18:20] whether sustained military pressure can [18:22] fundamentally weaken an ideologically [18:25] driven militia like this is genuinely an [18:28] open and important question. [18:30] But he waves it away as if the answer is [18:32] obvious, right? Oh oh you can't oh you [18:34] can't get rid of them by killing them. [18:37] Now I now I want to address something [18:38] else he said because it bothered me more [18:40] than any of the factual errors [18:43] of which there were as I said many. And [18:45] this is only 3 minutes of this 28 [18:47] minutes or whatever it is half an hour [18:48] talk. I mean this it was ridiculous. [18:52] He said that the Lebanese Army isn't [18:55] going to disarm Hezbollah. And then he [18:57] said especially at a time when Israel is [19:00] bombarding them. [19:03] As if Israel's military campaign emerged [19:05] from nowhere, right? Because he talked [19:06] about how you know that they have to [19:08] defend themselves. You know, it only [19:09] strengthens their argument that they [19:10] have to defend themselves against [19:12] Israel. Everyone in Lebanon knows that [19:13] the only reason Lebanon's getting bombed [19:15] is because Hezbollah keeps attacking [19:17] Israel. The Lebanese people are furious [19:19] at Hezbollah. [19:21] Okay, but but he makes it seem well [19:23] Israel's bombarding them as if Israel's [19:25] military campaign emerged from nowhere. [19:27] He didn't say a bad word about Hezbollah [19:29] in this whole in this whole talk. [19:32] Right? As if Israel simply decided one [19:34] day to start bombing its northern [19:35] neighbor. [19:36] So let's be clear. Let's review the [19:38] sequence of events, okay? On October [19:40] 7th, 2023, if you haven't heard, Hamas [19:43] launched the deadliest attack on the [19:45] Jewish people since the Holocaust. [19:47] Within days Hezbollah began launching [19:49] rockets, drones and anti-tank missiles [19:52] into northern Israel, completely [19:54] unprovoked, unbidden by any Israeli [19:57] action. [19:58] Okay, this was a deliberate decision by [20:00] Hezbollah's leadership to open a second [20:02] front in the war against Israel while [20:05] Israel was responding in the Gaza Strip. [20:09] Now, for nearly a year, approximately [20:11] 60,000 Israeli civilians were displaced [20:14] from their homes in northern Israel, [20:16] unable to return because of continuous [20:18] Hezbollah bombardment. Oh, yes, let's [20:20] add that in. Hezbollah only only attacks [20:24] Israeli civilians. They try to hit [20:27] Israeli civilians. They Their deliberate [20:29] goal is to kill Israeli civilians. [20:31] Israel does not [20:33] deliberately kill any civilians. [20:35] Okay, so you have Hezbollah. He doesn't [20:37] say a bad word about them. It's insane. [20:40] Now, it really [20:43] the fact that Hezbollah bombards Israeli [20:46] civilians with rockets unprovoked by [20:48] Israel just doesn't get mentioned here, [20:50] right? And then there's what's happening [20:51] right now. [20:53] When the United States and Israel [20:54] launched strikes against Iran's nuclear [20:56] program on February 28th, [20:58] um [21:00] or meaning when they launched this war, [21:02] I don't mean on the nuclear program. [21:03] When they launched the war on February [21:04] 28th, Hezbollah didn't stay on the [21:06] sidelines. They escalated their attacks [21:09] and they started launching rockets and [21:10] missiles and drones from southern [21:12] Lebanon, [21:13] right, triggering air raid sirens across [21:15] northern Israel, central Israel. [21:18] Uh [21:19] Hezbollah [21:21] So, they they since March 2nd, I think [21:23] it took them 3 days to join the war, [21:25] right? They've been firing rockets at [21:27] Israel. [21:29] And [21:30] they even There was one evening where [21:32] they sent 100 rockets in a single [21:34] evening. [21:36] And despite the broader [21:38] ceasefire between Israel and Iran that [21:41] that that just started, Hezbollah has [21:42] continued attacking [21:44] until we until we came to the ceasefire [21:46] in Lebanon. [21:47] Okay. [21:49] So, when Tom Barrack frames Israeli [21:50] military action in Lebanon as something [21:53] that gives efficacy to the reason, it [21:55] gives legitimacy to the reason that [21:57] Hezbollah should exist to protect itself [21:59] from Israel, [22:01] it I mean, first of all, [22:02] you're talking about a terrorist [22:03] organization, a [22:05] 12er Shiite fanatical [22:08] terrorist organization that chants death [22:09] to America and death to Israel. And you [22:11] know, well, you know, they have to [22:12] you know, they have to defend themselves [22:14] against Israel. [22:17] Without mentioning anything about why [22:19] Israel is doing this, right? He [22:22] So, he he allows for people to see the [22:25] causality of this backwards. [22:28] Israel didn't attack Lebanon and force [22:30] Hezbollah to defend itself. Hezbollah [22:32] attacked Israel repeatedly across [22:34] multiple conflicts and is still [22:36] attacking Israel. [22:38] And so, he's framing the aggressor as [22:40] the victim. And just cuz the aggressor [22:41] is weaker than the victim doesn't change [22:44] it. It's a distortion. [22:46] And we need to call it out every time it [22:47] appears. Look, [22:48] then he pivots to the Abraham Accords as [22:51] the ultimate solution. This is towards [22:52] the end of that clip. [22:54] The Abraham Accords were a normalization [22:56] agreement [22:57] between or a series of agreements [22:59] between Israel and the UAE, Israel and [23:02] Bahrain, and Morocco, and Sudan. Okay? [23:05] None of these states have anything to do [23:09] with the dynamic that exists with the [23:11] Lebanon-Hezbollah-Israel [23:13] issue. [23:14] Okay, that dynamic has to do with Iran [23:16] and it's a completely different [23:18] It's contextually irrelevant. Presenting [23:21] the Abraham Accords as the answer to [23:23] Hezbollah, [23:25] the Hezbollah-Lebanon problem is a [23:27] complete non sequitur. The Abraham [23:29] Accords were a great diplomatic [23:31] achievement and you cannot apply them to [23:33] a problem that they have nothing to do [23:35] with. [23:36] So, when he calls Okay, [23:38] and then he calls Turkey the only real [23:40] economy in the region. I'm not sure what [23:41] he what metrics he's using and what he [23:43] means by region. [23:45] That claim ignores Israel as a much [23:47] stronger economy than Turkey's. Saudi [23:49] Arabia, the UAE, they all have [23:51] substantial, more stable economies than [23:54] Turkey. [23:55] And Turkey has a a very serious [23:57] inflation problem. Its currency is [23:59] collapsing. [24:01] It But of course, you know, he was he [24:02] was giving the speech in Turkey, so he [24:03] has to say that. [24:05] So, there are real factual and [24:07] analytical problems throughout that [24:09] clip, but I want to end on something [24:11] much bigger. Because underneath all of [24:13] it, and this is like that stuff at the [24:14] end about prosperity, [24:16] underneath is what I want to talk about. [24:19] Because underneath all of that is an [24:21] assumption that I think is the most [24:22] consequential error that Western policy [24:25] makers have made in the Middle East [24:27] since World War II. At the end of the [24:29] clip, Barrack says that the answer has [24:32] to be prosperity. [24:34] That economic alignment of interests [24:36] will ultimately cause people to give up [24:38] their ideological commitments. [24:41] Right? That if we improve material [24:42] conditions enough, the the guns will be [24:45] put down. And I want to ask a simple [24:46] question. [24:48] Has that worked? [24:50] Right? The West poured billions of [24:51] dollars into the Palestinian Authority. [24:54] The The West poured billions of dollars [24:56] to rebuild Iraq. [24:59] Funded Lebanon's government for decades. [25:01] And in each case, the underlying [25:02] assumption was the same that underneath [25:04] the ideology, underneath the the [25:07] jihadist theology, underneath the [25:09] willingness to die [25:11] so that Westerners and and Jews will [25:13] die. [25:14] Right? Underneath all of that, there's a [25:16] rational economic actor who, given the [25:18] right conditions, will choose comfort [25:21] over their ideology, over their their [25:23] murderous convictions. Okay? Now, that [25:26] assumption is wrong. I've talked about [25:28] it many, many times. It I've written [25:30] about it many times. And that is it It's [25:32] like the key kernel of of of all the [25:36] errors that the West makes in dealing [25:38] with the Middle East. [25:40] Okay? [25:41] Hezbollah is not a poverty relief [25:43] organization that picked up guns because [25:45] nobody gave them jobs. [25:47] Okay, people don't This is a mistake. [25:49] Westerners believe that poverty leads to [25:50] terrorism. You hear it all the time. [25:52] There's no evidence for that whatsoever. [25:55] None. Zero. [25:57] There's no correlation. [26:00] I want to make that clear. [26:02] There's no correlation. [26:05] Hezbollah believes it that it is engaged [26:08] in a divinely sanctioned war. They are [26:11] 12er Shiites. They believe in bringing [26:15] an apocalypse to the world [26:18] and slaughtering all those who are [26:21] infidels. That's what they believe in. [26:23] They say it. [26:25] Okay? Its leadership has said this [26:27] explicitly, repeatedly. Iran, which [26:29] funds and directs it, is not a [26:32] desperate nation lashing out from [26:33] poverty. Okay? They could have been a [26:35] very wealthy economy if they chose to [26:37] spend their billions, hundreds of [26:39] billions of dollars from oil sales on [26:41] their country. [26:43] It's a government that has deliberately [26:45] subordinated its own population's [26:47] economic well-being to an ideological [26:50] project of death and destruction abroad [26:53] for over 40 years. And that's Hezbollah. [26:55] Hezbollah is Iran. The prosperity [26:57] argument makes a very Western, very [26:59] modern, very secular assumption that [27:02] material self-interest is the primary [27:05] driver of human behavior. Westerners [27:07] believe that. They believe it so deeply [27:09] that when that when these fanatical [27:11] murderous jihadists say that there are [27:14] that they want to destroy [27:17] the infidel, they go, "Yeah, yeah, yeah, [27:19] but really, if we gave them color TVs [27:21] and and and air conditioning and and a [27:23] better job and and that you know, they [27:26] would they would drop the ideology." [27:27] There's no evidence of that. [27:30] For these jihadist movements, religious [27:31] ideology is not [27:33] it's not it's not negotiable. It's not a [27:36] preference that they're going to trade [27:37] away for GDP growth. [27:41] Okay, it's their identity. It's their [27:43] duty. It's their path to paradise. You [27:46] can't outbid that with a trade deal. [27:49] And this mistake has a history. After [27:50] World War II, [27:52] which was really the last time that the [27:54] West was committed to destroying evil, [27:57] when FDR made it the policy during World [28:01] War II that they would only accept [28:03] unconditional surrender from Nazi [28:05] Germany and from Imperial Japan because [28:07] they were evil ideologies and you had to [28:09] bring them to [28:10] and you had to bring them to their [28:11] knees. But ever since then, the West has [28:13] developed what I would call a diplomacy [28:15] of accommodation, the belief that every [28:17] conflict really has an economic root. [28:23] And that every enemy has a price and [28:25] that the goal of foreign policy is to [28:27] find that price [28:29] and work with it. [28:31] Okay, and that's the framework that made [28:32] sense for rebuilding Europe, but it [28:34] makes no sense when your adversary's [28:36] explicit goal is not prosperity, but [28:39] dominance, [28:42] not development, but the destruction of [28:45] Western civilization. [28:48] What the West lost after 1945 is the [28:50] moral clarity to name evil and commit to [28:53] defeating it, not containing it, not [28:56] managing it, [28:57] not enriching our way past it. [29:00] Okay, you have to defeat it. [29:02] And that clarity, which existed when we [29:04] confronted those evil powers in World [29:07] War II, [29:08] that clarity and conviction has been [29:10] replaced by ideological timidity. [29:14] Right? We mistake accommodation for [29:17] sophistication. It sounds sophisticated. [29:19] Well, let's have the diplomacy. Let's [29:20] have conversations and let's work [29:21] together to find solutions. That It all [29:24] sounds very sophisticated, but it's [29:25] accommodation [29:27] with evil. [29:28] So, when Tom Barrack says that [29:30] prosperity is the answer, [29:32] I wouldn't even say he's being naive. I [29:35] would say that he's reflecting an [29:36] assumption so deeply embedded in Western [29:39] foreign policy thinking that most people [29:41] don't even real- realize that it's just [29:44] this it's just an assumption that's [29:45] wrong. [29:47] But it's it's a very deep-seated [29:49] assumption and it has real consequences. [29:53] Look, it in Gaza [29:56] Gaza is like [29:57] you all know how destroyed Gaza is and [29:59] how [30:00] what a miserable life the people have [30:01] there. And yet [30:03] when polling has been done from the from [30:05] October 7th through till [30:09] this past November [30:11] after the 20-point plan was announced [30:13] and the ceasefire was announced, these [30:15] people have been moved around camp to [30:16] camp. They've been bombed mercilessly. [30:20] Right? Think of the people in Gaza. And [30:21] yet when they were polled [30:23] one of the questions in the poll, and [30:25] this is Palestinian polling. [30:27] Okay, from the PCPSR, which is a [30:28] legitimate Palestinian polling agency. [30:31] And one of the questions they asked them [30:32] was, are you in favor of Hamas laying [30:35] down its weapons [30:37] if it will mean the end to the war with [30:38] Israel? [30:41] Are you in favor of Hamas laying down [30:42] their weapons to end the war? [30:46] And [30:48] over 65% over two-thirds of the people [30:50] in Gaza said, no, they don't want Hamas [30:53] to lay down their weapons if it will [30:55] mean the end to the war. [30:56] Think about that. [30:58] Wouldn't you think they would want the [31:00] end to the war? [31:03] That's what I'm talking about. [31:05] Until we're willing to take seriously [31:08] the possibility [31:10] that our adversaries are motivated by [31:12] something that money cannot touch. [31:14] Prosperity is not the answer. Right? [31:16] Their goals are not just different from [31:18] ours, but they're incompatible with [31:21] peaceful coexistence. [31:23] We are going to keep repeating the same [31:25] failures we've been making for 70 years. [31:28] The Taif agreement [31:31] The Taif agreement didn't fail because [31:33] Lebanon wasn't prosperous enough. [31:35] Right? It failed because [31:37] because because Lebanon is dysfunctional [31:39] and because one one party to that [31:41] agreement, Hezbollah in Lebanon [31:45] was is a terrorist organization [31:48] and continued to bring death and [31:49] destruction on Lebanon by attacking [31:51] Israel. [31:52] Not because they were poor [31:55] but because they have jihadist goals. [31:59] Prosperity's not nothing [32:00] but it's not a substitute for moral [32:02] clarity. And right now the Middle East [32:04] needs less economic theory and more [32:06] honest judgment about what we are [32:09] actually dealing with. If not, we are [32:11] going to be doomed. And this is the this [32:14] is the disconnect that the Israelis have [32:15] with everyone else right now. [32:17] The Israelis are trying to actually [32:19] defeat enemies. [32:21] And we just keep getting stopped before [32:22] we can finish the job. And it's the only [32:24] way that the world has a chance to move [32:27] past these evil evil entities that [32:30] really just need to face defeat. And [32:32] there's like a lack of willingness to [32:34] actually move to defeat. That's the real [32:36] problem we're facing in the West these [32:37] days. All right, I've said enough on [32:39] this. [32:40] Thanks for watching. God bless.
