Transcript [00:00] Hey everyone. So, here is uh today's [00:02] Iran update. Uh there's obviously a lot [00:06] is going on. Everyone's watching the [00:07] headlines. It feels like an attack is [00:10] more and more imminent by the day. So, [00:12] let's get to uh just a a series of [00:15] headlines here that could help us [00:17] understand what is actually happening. [00:19] So, first of all, Iran and Russia [00:21] conducted a naval drill in the Gulf of [00:23] Oman in the northern Indian Ocean. I [00:25] pointed this out when they first [00:26] announced it last month that this is [00:28] clearly a u what I call a [00:33] um a a messaging event, meaning it's [00:37] it's a they're trying to posture. That's [00:40] what it's called, a posturing event. You [00:42] see, the Russians have never said, and [00:45] the same thing goes for the Chinese, [00:46] they've never said that they will [00:48] intervene on behalf of the Iranians. So [00:50] instead, what they're doing is they're [00:51] figuring out all kinds of ways to flex [00:53] their muscles and make it look like [00:55] they'll intervene because the Iranians [00:57] are trying to uh make are trying to make [01:01] the Americans believe that there will be [01:02] a wider regional conflict or even a [01:05] global conflict that will erupt as a [01:07] result of strikes on Iran. Now, the [01:09] Russians signed a a uh a strategic [01:12] alliance that included defense [01:15] cooperation with the Iranians. They [01:17] signed it in January of 2025, just over [01:19] a year ago. And yet in June 2025 during [01:24] the 12-day war, the Russians did not [01:26] lift a finger to help the Iranians even [01:28] though they had assets in the region. [01:29] They had some significant military [01:31] assets still in Syria at the time and [01:33] even and Israel was flying air sorties [01:35] over Syria and they didn't do anything [01:37] about it. So, so the so now what they do [01:41] is they have a joint naval drill which [01:43] makes it look like their alliance is [01:44] still intact and it it it gives the [01:47] impression that the Russians will act on [01:49] behalf of the Iranians. But I'm pretty [01:51] confident that they never will. I don't [01:53] think there's a single country in the [01:54] world that will that will attack the [01:56] United States and its assets in defense [01:58] of the Iranian regime. That would be [02:00] kind of suicidal. But nevertheless, [02:02] that's what they did here. So that's how [02:03] we should properly understand it at the [02:05] same and to go along with that muscle [02:07] flexing we have uh the Iranian supreme [02:10] leader he he keeps doing this he did [02:12] another one yesterday the US president [02:14] keeps saying that they have the [02:15] strongest military force in the world [02:16] the strongest military force in the [02:18] world may at times be struck so hard [02:20] that it cannot get up again. Um and [02:23] we'll see a little bit more of that in [02:24] this story. Uh US builds up forces and [02:27] as Iran threatens officials say Iran [02:30] does not recognize red line. So, here's [02:32] a story where we have where we really [02:34] see the double game, the misdirection [02:38] plays that the Iranians are doing. See, [02:41] both sides are doing misdirection plays [02:42] here. That's the real theme. [02:45] So, despite optimistic signals from [02:47] Thran, the vice president warned that [02:49] all options are on the table. So, what [02:51] are the optimistic signals? So, let's [02:52] we'll get to that in a second. So there [02:54] was uh there were talks on Tuesday and [02:57] then Vance said that Thran does not [03:00] recognize red lines and that's a big [03:02] problem. [03:03] And take a look at this. We continue to [03:05] hear that the US is sending destroyers [03:07] to Iran. This is this is Ali Kamayi. [03:09] Okay. The American destroyers are [03:12] undoubtedly dangerous but weapons that [03:14] can sink them are more dangerous. [03:17] Okay. And then he said that the US [03:19] military could suffer a blow so severe [03:20] it would not recover from it. Okay. This [03:22] is all of course nonsense. And I talked [03:25] about this [03:27] um in some of my previous videos that [03:29] Iran, you have to wonder why Iran is [03:31] talking tough. What are they doing? What [03:32] are they thinking about? And I also [03:33] wrote about it in the Jerusalem Post and [03:35] in an opinion piece that was published [03:37] uh just today actually uh in the [03:39] newspaper. It's also up online where I [03:41] talk about the fact that the Iranian [03:43] strategy is uh the Iranian strategy is [03:46] to make the Americans afraid of a [03:50] regional war and that their calculation [03:53] is that they have a better chance of the [03:55] regime surviving if they go to kinetic [03:57] conflict than if they capitulate in the [04:00] negotiations. And that's why they're not [04:01] recognizing the American red lines. [04:05] Later on in this piece though, despite [04:06] all the tough talk from Kamaya, we see a [04:09] quotes from from uh from Abbas Aragchi, [04:12] the Iranian foreign minister, who says [04:14] that good progress had been made and [04:16] that the direction was positive and that [04:18] we have quote we have a clearer picture [04:20] of what needs to be done. There are [04:22] still issues that both sides need to [04:23] work on. So what's this about? If [04:25] they're talking tough, why is Abbasaraji [04:29] making noises about the negotiation [04:31] still going well and and that you know [04:34] we're making progress. Why is he doing [04:36] that? So he's doing that because he w [04:39] that's in order to position any American [04:42] strikes as unreasonable. U because if [04:45] the American strike you can say what do [04:47] you mean the negot we were in the middle [04:48] of negotiations we were between rounds [04:50] of negotiations. we will, you know, we [04:52] were still coming up with, you know, [04:54] with the with what we're going to talk [04:56] about in the next round and and you [04:58] know, of course, you know, negotiations [04:59] take time, you know, that's that is a [05:03] that's the play of Abasaraki while at [05:06] the same time Ali Kamayi is is [05:08] threatening, you know, to, you know, to [05:11] inflict such great damage on the [05:12] American military that it cannot uh that [05:15] it cannot recover. Uh, now in that [05:18] context, I want to play you this video [05:19] here. And I've played this clip before, [05:22] but it's so important. This is a clip [05:23] from April of 2016 when President Trump [05:26] was running for office the first time. [05:28] This is 10 years ago, talking about his [05:31] foreign policy approach. And look at [05:33] this short clip. [05:34] >> And then there's ISIS. I have a simple [05:37] message for them. Their days are [05:41] numbered. I won't tell them where, and I [05:44] won't tell them how. We must [05:52] we must as a nation be more [05:55] unpredictable. We are totally [05:57] predictable. We tell everything. We're [05:59] sending troops, we tell them. We're [06:01] sending something else, we have a news [06:03] conference. We have to be unpredictable. [06:07] And we have to be unpredictable starting [06:10] now. [06:11] So yeah, that's uh that's a clip I love [06:14] and I've written about it. Um, and uh, I [06:16] think it says everything about Trump's [06:18] doctrine of foreign policy and explains [06:20] the behavior here where he specifically [06:23] gives gives these misdirection plays, [06:25] talks about maybe I'll strike, maybe I [06:26] won't strike. The most notable example [06:28] of this was in the 12-day war where two [06:31] days before the B2 bomber attacks on the [06:33] nuclear facilities in Iran. two days [06:36] before you on the the attacks happened [06:39] on a Saturday. On that Thursday, [06:40] Caroline Levit, the press secretary, [06:42] said that President Trump had decided to [06:44] hold off on attacking and think about it [06:46] for two weeks. And the fact that it was [06:48] 48 hours before he attacked [06:50] meant that the the order had already [06:52] been given. So, it was a it was an [06:54] obvious misdirection play. And, you [06:57] know, so the Iranians doing the doing a [06:59] similar thing, you know, the Persians [07:01] know how to negotiate. And we tend to [07:03] look at these um you know these these [07:06] regimes in the Middle East you know who [07:08] are lying all the time and misdirecting [07:10] and we see that as some sort of uh [07:12] nefarious behavior but but I I think [07:14] it's actually smart and President Trump [07:17] you know he's a master negotiator. So [07:19] the misdirection plays if we're confused [07:21] and we're unsure about what Trump is [07:23] going to do understand that that is by [07:24] design. Meanwhile, Israel is on high [07:27] alert uh as Israeli officials assess an [07:30] imminent US strike on Iran. The security [07:33] cabinet has postponed its next meeting. [07:36] Meanwhile, aircraft operators in Iran [07:39] have been told to brace for Gulf flight [07:42] disrupt. I'm sorry, not in Iran, in the [07:43] Gulf. Dami security intelligence is [07:46] warning its aviation clients to prepare [07:49] for disruption to flights in and around [07:51] the Persian Gulf region. The group's [07:53] just the group just released the group's [07:55] just released security assessment says [07:57] US and Israeli forces are preparing for [07:59] imminent attacks on Iran which could [08:01] trigger security threats in neighboring [08:03] countries and airspace. Now obviously [08:04] there you could you could have issued [08:06] this warning any time over the last [08:07] month and a half. That's why it's so [08:09] important. According to Diamy's [08:11] analysts, increased movements of combat [08:13] and support aircraft in the [08:14] Mediterranean Sea and Gulf suggest that [08:16] the Pentagon is now moving from [08:19] signaling posture to a state of [08:22] executable readiness. [08:25] Wow. Commercial air operators in the [08:27] Middle East should anticipate a rapidly [08:29] changing airspace environment if [08:30] military operations commence. short [08:33] notice airspace closures, expanded [08:35] restricted zones, GPS interference, [08:37] increased military traffic, and possible [08:39] missile or drone activity across Iraq, [08:42] Lebanon, Jordan, Syria, Western Iran, [08:44] and adjacent FIRS are a plausible risk. [08:48] So, understand this is a security agency [08:50] telling its clients and they chose to [08:53] they didn't do it last week. They didn't [08:54] do it two weeks ago, they did it [08:56] yesterday. Okay? So, things it looks [08:58] like things are very, very imminent. [09:00] Iran issues notam over planned rocket [09:03] launches on Thursday. US FAA says okay [09:07] now a uh a NOTAM is a notice. It's a [09:10] notice to airmen. Okay. So the Iran [09:13] issued on Wednesday, that's yesterday, a [09:15] notice to airmen that it plans rocket [09:17] launches in areas across its south. The [09:20] notice was issued amid heightened [09:22] tensions with the US. Let's get back [09:24] down to this. The notime system provides [09:25] pilots, flight flight crews, and other [09:28] airspace users with critical safety [09:31] notices. Okay, so Iran is issuing this [09:35] notice for its for its southern region. [09:38] Meanwhile, as I just said, the Diami [09:41] security agency is issuing a notice to [09:43] all of its clients that an attack is [09:44] imminent and the Polish government [09:48] issues a warning. Poles should leave [09:49] Iran immediately. Evacuation may be [09:53] impossible in a matter of hours. And [09:55] this is a brand new story from today. [09:59] Polish citizens in Iran should leave [10:00] immediately. Prime Minister Donald Tusk [10:03] said on Thursday, warning that due to [10:06] potential for armed conflict, evacuation [10:08] may no longer be possible in a matter of [10:11] hours. Hour hours. Okay, so all signs [10:14] point to an imminent attack. Just to sum [10:17] up, Abasaraki, the foreign minister, [10:19] saying negotiations are going very, very [10:21] well. Oh yes, we're making progress. [10:23] That's a misdirection play in order to [10:25] give cover in order to give give cover [10:27] for the Iranians, saying that they [10:30] weren't, you know, they weren't being [10:32] aggressive so that when the Americans [10:33] attack, the Americans look more [10:35] unreasonable. That's what that's about. [10:37] But I believe, and I've been saying this [10:38] now for a while, that the Iranians [10:41] actually want kinetic war. I know it [10:43] sounds crazy, but they they prefer that [10:46] over capitulating to the American [10:48] demands in the negotiations because [10:50] capitulating to those demands they [10:53] believe I believe that they believe pose [10:55] a greater threat to the regime than [10:58] absorbing the US attacks on them. And [11:02] that's and that's something that I don't [11:04] I haven't seen anyone else saying, but I [11:05] really believe this to be the case [11:08] because otherwise you just have to look [11:10] at the Iranian flexing their muscles and [11:12] threatening, you know, threatening a [11:14] regional war and showing all this [11:17] confidence as just this empty bravado [11:19] that makes no sense that they're just [11:21] nutcases. And of course, it's easy to [11:24] say that, oh, they're Islamists, they're [11:25] nutcases, but these are very these are [11:27] very shrewd operators. And I believe [11:29] that this is what's happening here. That [11:31] they actually, I know it sounds crazy, [11:32] but they actually want the United States [11:35] to attack if the other option is giving [11:37] into the demands of the negotiations [11:40] because the regime might have a better [11:41] chance of surviving, which again, even [11:45] everyone who wants attacks on Iran who [11:47] thinks that this is going to bring down [11:48] the regime, it's not so simple that [11:50] bombing will bring down the regime. It [11:51] could cause tremendous damage. But the [11:53] bringing down of the regime can only [11:55] really happen if the Iranian people [11:57] themselves make it happen. If they [11:59] actually rise up and make it happen. And [12:02] uh you know so with all the attacks and [12:04] all the damage they could do. Now listen [12:06] from Israel's security perspective. [12:07] Great. Destroy the ballistic missiles, [12:09] destroy the nuclear, make it [12:12] excuse me, make it impossible for them [12:15] to, you know, to fund their proxies. [12:17] That's what we care about from Israel's [12:18] security perspective. But in the long [12:20] term, in terms of bringing down the [12:22] regime, attacks will help. They can [12:24] create the conditions that make it [12:26] easier for the people to bring down the [12:27] regime. But the regime will only fall [12:29] when the people bring it down. And there [12:30] is a possibility, there's a real [12:32] possibility that there'll be lots and [12:33] lots of bombing and the regime could [12:35] still survive, especially if they manage [12:37] to cause any US casualties [12:40] uh in the area. Uh because if they do, [12:43] then there will be tremendous political [12:45] pressure on President Trump to end this [12:47] thing. There are a lot of people in [12:48] America who are skept skeptical of [12:50] attacks. And the only and the only way, [12:52] you know, the reason that Trump came out [12:55] smelling like a rose in, you know, after [12:57] the B2 bomber attacks and after what [12:59] happened in Venezuela is that no [13:01] American casualties were incurred. If [13:02] there's any American casualties, it's [13:04] going to be a different story [13:05] politically. And if this ends, if the [13:08] America stops the attacks before the [13:11] Iranian regime falls, and they could do [13:13] that, and they could have this kind of [13:14] plausible explanation. Let's say they [13:16] inflict a lot of damage on the ballistic [13:18] missile sites or inflict a lot of [13:19] damage, more damage on the nuclear sites [13:21] and then Trump says, "Okay, that that [13:23] was what we intended to do. We never [13:24] really intended to bring down the [13:26] regime." And the regime remains in [13:27] power. They could just keep their head [13:29] down until Trump leaves office and um [13:33] and they could continue. So, let's not [13:35] be so optimistic that that attacks [13:38] automatically mean the end of the [13:39] regime. It's not necessarily so. Uh I [13:42] keep saying this and I'm going to keep [13:43] saying this. So, let's uh let's keep our [13:44] eye on the ball and uh I'll be back with [13:47] you. I'll be back with you for another [13:48] update tomorrow.
