Transcript [00:00] Well, apparently there are negotiations [00:02] going on between the United States and a [00:04] senior Iranian official. We talked about [00:07] this last week about how there were [00:10] rumors, there was reporting that [00:13] that the Trump administration was [00:15] speaking to speak Iranian Parliament [00:18] speaker Qalibaf and I talked about who [00:21] he is. He's a very bad dude and we'll [00:23] talk about that a little bit more in a [00:25] few minutes. We're going to get into the [00:27] whole issue of what is actually [00:29] happening with these negotiations, what [00:31] what we might expect to see in the days [00:34] ahead. Before we get into all of that, [00:37] please be sure to go to [00:39] Israel365charity.com [00:42] and help out. There's a lot of demands [00:44] on the home front, a lot of families who [00:46] are struggling with a lot of the fallout [00:48] of what's going on with the war and the [00:49] Passover holiday coming up. [00:51] Israel365charity [00:53] is plugged in to a lot of great people [00:56] on the ground and your money will get [00:58] into the right hands helping these [01:00] families who are dealing with a whole [01:02] range of issues. So, [01:03] Israel365charity.com, [01:07] please give generously. Please go there, [01:09] drop a few nickels in the bucket. Now, [01:12] to start this video, I want to play an [01:14] old clip that I've played in a few [01:16] videos on this channel. It's been a [01:18] while since we looked at it. Frankly, I [01:20] think about this clip almost every day [01:21] these days. [01:23] This is from a speech that Trump gave in [01:24] April of 2016. He was not yet even the [01:27] Republican candidate. He hadn't had the [01:29] nomination. He was [01:31] he was he was running for president and [01:34] this was his first major foreign policy [01:37] address. It was given on April 27th, [01:39] 2016 and I just want to play you a [01:41] 20-second clip of it. If you're if [01:43] you've been with me for for the for the [01:45] last few months on this channel, you've [01:47] probably seen this clip before, but it's [01:49] always worth going back to. Here we go. [01:53] And then there's ISIS. I have a simple [01:56] message for them. Their days are [01:59] numbered. I won't tell them where and I [02:02] won't tell them how. We must [02:10] We must, as a nation, be more [02:13] unpredictable. We are totally [02:15] predictable. We tell everything. We're [02:18] sending troops, we tell them. We're [02:20] sending something else, we have a news [02:22] conference. We have to be unpredictable. [02:26] And we have to be unpredictable starting [02:28] now. [02:30] Okay, this this clip is [02:33] huge. It's monumentally important [02:36] because all of the speculation, all the [02:37] talk that you hear in the media, oh, [02:39] Trump changes his mind, he looks [02:41] confused, he's giving these mixed [02:43] signals and it there's there's a [02:46] prevailing wisdom out there that Trump's [02:48] foreign policy is confused and that he's [02:51] unsure and that's why you're hearing him [02:53] say conflicting things. [02:55] But Trump said this [02:57] himself right here. And notice he was [02:59] reading from the teleprompter. His his [03:03] belief in the best way to handle foreign [03:05] policy and here he wasn't talking about [03:07] foreign policy like, you know, doing a [03:08] trade deal with, you know, with a [03:10] European nation. He's talking about [03:11] dealing with enemies. [03:13] And in that context, he said that it's [03:15] important for America to be [03:16] unpredictable. This is a doctrine. [03:19] I call it the doctrine of [03:20] unpredictability. I wrote a column about [03:22] it in the Jerusalem Post as well a [03:23] number of months ago that [03:25] this confusion people have about what he [03:28] about what he's thinking is deliberate [03:30] and we're going to see as through the [03:31] rest of this video, the reason I played [03:33] it in this video specifically cuz we're [03:35] going to look carefully at in a few [03:37] minutes is how Iranian state media [03:41] is [03:43] is dealing with all of these mixed [03:45] signals and all of the and the whole [03:48] negotiations issue. And you can see that [03:51] this doctrine of unpredictability is [03:54] actually driving them a little nuts. So, [03:56] let's get right into the rest of this. [03:58] So, first of all, this story broke [04:00] yesterday. Trump puts Iran on notice, [04:02] reveals to the post. This is an [04:04] interview with the New York Post that [04:05] Trump did. [04:06] He revealed to the post his one-week [04:08] ultimatum for new speaker after Tehran's [04:11] attack on Israeli oil refinery. [04:13] President Trump on Monday put Iran and [04:16] the speaker of the Islamic Republic's [04:17] parliament [04:18] on notice after Tehran attacked Israel's [04:21] biggest oil refinery and told the New [04:24] York Post that his response is coming [04:26] shortly. Iran escalated its attack on [04:28] infrastructure by striking a water and [04:30] electrical plant in Kuwait and an oil [04:32] refinery was set ablaze in the northern [04:34] Israeli city of Haifa after the Iranian [04:38] missile attack. As for this his [04:40] response, he told the post, "You'll see [04:42] shortly." [04:43] As Trump brings more military might into [04:45] the region that could inflict [04:47] catastrophic damage on Iran, he [04:49] encouraged what's left of Iran's regime [04:51] to make a deal before it's too late and [04:54] said he would hit them where it really [04:55] hurt, their energy infrastructure. He [04:58] exclusively told the post that the US [05:00] will find out whether the speaker is [05:02] willing to work with Americans soon. [05:04] We're going to find out. [05:06] Trump told the post when asked about [05:08] Iran's Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, "I'll [05:10] let you know that in about a week." [05:12] Qalibaf issued his own warning in [05:14] response writing on social media that [05:16] attacking Iran's infrastructure would be [05:18] a big mistake. "The enemy promotes its [05:20] desires as news while threatening our [05:22] nation at the same time. Big mistake. If [05:25] they hit one, they'll take several back, [05:27] God willing." "The people of Iran under [05:29] the leadership of the supreme leader [05:31] will make the enemy regret the [05:32] aggression and reclaim their rights." he [05:34] wrote. [05:35] The president, Trump, described a [05:36] dramatic shakeup inside Iran claiming [05:39] the old guard has effectively been wiped [05:41] out and replaced by a new group he said [05:44] has so far been easier to work with. [05:46] Quote, "There has been a total regime [05:48] change because the regimes of the past [05:51] are gone and we're dealing with a whole [05:52] new set of people." Trump said. "And [05:54] thus far, they've been much more [05:56] reasonable." [05:58] Um okay. Pressed on whether these are [06:00] new figures compared to the past [06:02] adversaries in Tehran, Trump didn't [06:04] mince words. "Pretty much, the other [06:05] people are all dead." [06:07] And [06:09] then they talk about how the supreme [06:11] leader could very well be dead. [06:13] Several major figures in Iran's [06:15] leadership have died. Okay. Trump's [06:17] decision to give Qalibaf a week could be [06:19] tied to his April 6th deadline for Iran [06:22] to come to a peace deal with America. [06:24] It's unclear how safe the Iranian [06:26] speaker is or if he's on any type of [06:29] kill list. The White House did not [06:30] respond to an inquiry on the matter. [06:34] Iranian leaders have not publicly [06:35] confirmed that they are participating in [06:37] talks with the US. Meanwhile, their [06:39] blockade of the Strait of Hormuz [06:41] has taken has shaken stock markets [06:44] around the world. [06:46] Okay. And then later on, they say in [06:49] this interview, Trump said, "Great [06:51] progress has been made." He's talking [06:52] about the negotiations. "If for any [06:54] reason a deal is not shortly reached, [06:56] which it will probably which it probably [06:58] will be." That's Trump always [07:00] expressing optimism about a deal. "And [07:02] if the Hormuz Strait is not immediately [07:04] open for business, we will conclude our [07:05] lovely stay in Iran by blowing up and [07:08] completely obliterating all of their [07:09] electric generating plants, oil wells, [07:12] and Kharg Island." [07:14] Okay, that's pretty much it for this. [07:17] Now, who's this guy Qalibaf? So, I did a [07:18] video about him recently. I also did an [07:21] interview on Israel365 News with Dr. [07:23] David Wurmser where we talked about who [07:25] Qalibaf is. So, Qalibaf is a guy who is [07:28] a career IRGC thug. He made his his rise [07:34] through the ranks came from being [07:36] especially brutal to citizens. He was [07:38] behind the massacre of protesters in [07:40] 1999 when there were student protests [07:43] and he was one of the main people behind [07:46] the mass murder of Iranian citizens back [07:48] in January. He is a brutal [07:51] thug. Of all the people in the Iranian [07:53] regime, [07:54] he may be the most hated and feared by [07:58] the Iranian people. So, when Trump says [07:59] that all the top other people are gone [08:01] and this is really a regime change, [08:04] if Qalibaf is the guy, I've said this [08:05] before, if Qalibaf is the guy that Trump [08:07] tries to do a Venezuela deal with where [08:11] he's empowering whatever remains of the [08:13] regime after decapitating the top and if [08:15] he does that with Qalibaf, it will be [08:17] understood correctly by the people in [08:19] Iran that it wasn't really regime [08:21] change. Okay. So, be that as it may, how [08:24] how are the Iranians responding? [08:26] So, on Tasnim, so I've said this before, [08:30] there are two [08:31] major English language Iranian state [08:35] media outlets. Okay? [08:37] There's one called Iwana. [08:39] We're going to look at them as well and [08:41] there's one called Tasnim. Tasnim is [08:43] more of the mouthpiece of the IRGC, of [08:46] the revolutionary of the Islamic [08:48] Revolutionary Guard Corps. That's all [08:49] the thugs and that's the more radical, [08:52] more hardline side of the regime. And [08:55] then there's Iwana, which is much more [08:57] of a kind of narrative framing kind of [08:59] propaganda outlet [09:01] on behalf of the regime and they're not [09:03] always in lockstep. We'll see this here. [09:05] So, here's today's front page of Tasnim [09:08] and you notice that there isn't even any [09:10] mention in the top stories of the [09:13] negotiations. IRGC launches blitz on the [09:15] US-Israeli targets. Iran to end war only [09:18] on its own terms and they're quoting [09:21] Masoud Pezeshkian. And then it says [09:23] Pezeshkian lauds Iraqi support amid [09:26] Israeli [09:27] US-Israeli war. And then it says the [09:29] Iranian army shot down uh [09:33] uh shot [09:34] down enemy drones. Iran condemns the [09:37] strikes on steel plants. [09:40] Iran rejects Ukraine's baseless [09:42] allegations. Iran strikes US command [09:44] centers. [09:45] Um [09:46] talks about how they hanged a few [09:48] opposition people. [09:50] And it goes on and on and on and there's [09:51] no mention [09:53] there's no mention until we get all the [09:55] way down here near the bottom here, Iran [09:57] refutes any talks with the US. [10:00] Okay? Their only comment on the [10:02] negotiations is that they refute that [10:03] there are any talks. [10:05] Okay? [10:06] And the rest of it is all about their [10:07] aggression. But I want to focus in on [10:10] these two stories here. Two stories [10:12] back-to-back, both about Masoud [10:14] Pezeshkian. He's the president. The [10:16] president of Iran is a figurehead, [10:17] doesn't really have a whole lot of [10:18] power. He's generally responsible more [10:21] for civil matters. [10:23] Um civil governance. Whereas the IRGC is [10:26] more focused on the power of the regime [10:29] and uh and and the terrorist network and [10:32] all of that. [10:33] So Pezeshkian has been reportedly [10:36] sidelined. He's He is known to be more [10:39] of a moderate. [10:40] Uh in fact, he beat out Ghalibaf in the [10:43] election to become president. The [10:45] president is still, like everyone else, [10:47] subservient to the supreme leader in the [10:48] IRGC. But since this war has started, [10:51] there's been reports of Pezeshkian [10:54] really trying to end this thing and [10:56] negotiate and the IRGC digging in and [10:58] refusing to negotiate. [11:00] And there was a report on [11:03] on Israeli Channel 14 News, Zohar [11:05] Behzad, who is the who's fluent in [11:08] Persian and he has a lot of sources in [11:10] Iran, and he is the lead uh journalist [11:13] who covers Iran for Channel 14 cable [11:15] news in Israel. Extremely well-sourced. [11:17] He often breaks stories cuz he has [11:19] informants in the Iranian regime. And he [11:22] put out a a report, and his reports are [11:24] very credible. He put out a report [11:25] yesterday that says as follows, [11:27] "Exclusive, the hostage president." [11:29] Senior Iran analyst Zohar Behzad reveals [11:32] explosive leaked details of a deepening [11:34] rift between President Pezeshkian and [11:37] the Revolutionary Guards. In a heated [11:38] confrontation, Pezeshkian reportedly [11:41] lashed out at the IRGC [11:43] commander-in-chief, [11:44] warning, "Quote, you're ruling the [11:46] country like suicidals. If this [11:48] continues for another 3 weeks, the [11:50] economy will collapse." The sources [11:52] reveal a presidency under total siege. [11:55] The IRGC [11:56] has seized control of all security, [11:59] civil, and economic issues. These are [12:01] things they're not supposed to be [12:02] governing. Pezeshkian has been [12:04] repeatedly blocked from resigning. He [12:06] can't even resign. [12:08] The IRGC is sidelining the president [12:10] from US negotiations, fearing he will, [12:12] quote, "Give everything to end [12:14] sanctions." Meaning they're worried that [12:15] he will actually make a deal. They don't [12:17] want to make a deal. [12:18] And look listen to this quote from [12:19] Pezeshkian. "I feel like a hostage," [12:22] Pezeshkian reportedly claimed. "The only [12:24] job I have is to read your crazy [12:26] script." That's what he said to the IRGC [12:28] guys. These leaks confirm the IRGC now [12:31] holds absolute control, steering around [12:34] toward an increasingly extreme and [12:35] dangerous path. Now, obviously, [12:37] uh the IRGC, the regime doesn't want to [12:40] project outwardly that there's that [12:42] there's this uh [12:44] infighting and there's this disagreement [12:46] at the top levels of the regime. So I [12:48] found it very interesting that on [12:49] Tasnim, they specifically run these two [12:52] stories that, quote, Pezeshkian, "Iran [12:55] to end war only on its own terms." As [12:57] though Pezeshkian is now [12:59] aligning up with the hardliners. And [13:02] also, Pezeshkian lauds Iraqi support [13:05] amid US-Israeli war. So here, they're [13:08] trying to project outwardly that [13:10] Pezeshkian is is in lockstep with the [13:14] IRGC. That's the purpose of these two [13:16] stories. They want to They want to [13:17] project unity and stability because [13:20] there's reports like this one by Zohar [13:21] Behzad that are saying that the regime [13:24] has is has a lot of infighting and [13:26] instability in it. Okay? That's That's [13:28] what that is about. [13:29] Meanwhile, Iran refutes any talks with [13:32] the US. This was also from yesterday. [13:34] Spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign [13:36] Ministry emphasized that Tehran has had [13:38] no direct negotiations with the United [13:40] States. Now, that completely contradicts [13:42] President Trump. [13:44] And he uh and rejects claims that the [13:46] Islamic Republic has agreed to [13:47] Washington's proposals, describing any [13:49] such assertions as baseless. In comments [13:52] at his weekly press conference on [13:53] Monday, Bagheri responded to US [13:55] President Donald Trump's claims that [13:57] Iran had that Iran had accepted US [13:59] proposals. He reiterated that Iran's [14:01] position has been consistent from the [14:03] start, rejecting excessive and [14:05] unreasonable demands [14:07] through intermediaries. Okay? Again, he [14:09] stated Iran has had no direct [14:12] negotiations. Repeats it a few times in [14:14] here. [14:16] He noted that it's unclear how many in [14:17] the US take their own claims of [14:19] diplomacy seriously. He emphasized that [14:21] Iran's [14:22] stance is clear and does not shift as [14:25] the US position does. [14:28] Okay. Um [14:32] He concluded that US claims are not [14:34] considered credible, noting that Iran [14:37] has experienced previous betrayals [14:39] during negotiations firsthand. [14:41] The US and the Israeli regime launched a [14:43] large-scale unprovoked military campaign [14:45] against Iran following the assassination [14:47] of leader of the Islamic Revolution, I [14:49] Ali Khamenei, along with several other [14:52] senior military commanders and civilians [14:54] on February 28th. [14:57] Right? And because their narrative is [14:58] that we were in the middle of [14:59] negotiating and the and the the [15:01] Americans were just using negotiations [15:03] as a cover to prepare for the next [15:04] attack, and therefore they're accusing [15:07] Trump of doing the same thing now. Okay? [15:09] That's and and and saying that we're not [15:10] really involved in any negotiations. [15:13] Meanwhile, in Iran International, this [15:15] is an opposition Iranian outlet that's [15:17] actually based in England, but so it [15:19] covers Iran Iranian news, but from an [15:21] opposition standpoint. And they're They [15:23] also The The Iranian opposition in exile [15:26] does not want there to be a deal with [15:28] Ghalibaf. That's an important point. [15:30] Again, the Iranian opposition in exile [15:32] does not want a deal if it means that [15:35] Ghalibaf stays in power. Cuz from the [15:37] perspective of Iranians, Ghalibaf [15:39] remaining in power means that the regime [15:42] remains in power. It means that the [15:43] revolution The IRGC remains in power. It [15:45] means the Basij and all the thugs who've [15:48] been oppressing the Iranian people [15:49] remain in power. That's what that means. [15:53] Unfortunately, Trump keeps signaling [15:55] that he wants this Venezuela model where [15:58] you keep people from the regime at the [16:00] very at at the top level that you can [16:02] deal with, and that holds the system [16:04] together, and that's who you deal with. [16:06] Okay? So if Trump actually is talking [16:08] about how Ghalibaf is a reasonable [16:10] person and he wants to deal with him, [16:11] that's a bad sign. [16:12] Um and and therefore you see that the [16:14] opposition [16:17] uh is is trying to throw cold water on [16:19] this. Ghalibaf and Trump escalate [16:20] rhetoric as prospects for talk remain [16:23] for talks remain vague. [16:25] At the diplomatic level, reports suggest [16:27] indirect contacts [16:29] contacts are continuing even as the gap [16:31] between public rhetoric and [16:33] behind-the-scenes diplomacy appears [16:34] wider than ever. [16:37] Okay? Ghalibaf accused the United States [16:40] of duplicity, saying Washington was [16:42] publicly speaking of negotiations while [16:44] privately preparing for escalation. [16:47] He warned that Iranian forces were ready [16:49] to inflict heavy losses on any US troops [16:52] attempting a ground operation, as well [16:54] as on the regional allies. Okay? So this [16:56] is being echoed over and over again from [16:57] the Iranians that they believe that [17:00] these negotiations are really just a [17:02] cover for preparing the next attack, [17:05] which maybe they are. Remember Remember [17:07] Trump. Remember that clip I played to [17:08] start this video of Trump talking about [17:10] being unpredictable. But this is what [17:12] the Iranians are are saying, [17:14] which means that they're digging in and [17:17] and and the reason that Iran [17:18] International is elevating that is they [17:21] want to project this Iranian opposition [17:24] group wants their [17:27] wants the wants the message of this news [17:29] item to be that the Iranians aren't [17:31] serious about this and that the [17:32] negotiations aren't really going to go [17:34] anywhere. Okay? Now, let's go over to [17:36] WANA. This is Iranian state media. So [17:39] their their front page today, as and if [17:41] you've been with me before when I've [17:43] done reviews of Iranian state media, top [17:45] news, the top story is never really a [17:47] news item. It's this common in [17:49] totalitarian regimes where state media, [17:51] the top story in state media will often [17:53] be an editorial cuz it's basically [17:55] laying out policy. So their top story [17:58] today is Trump's two scenarios for [18:01] ending the conflict with Iran. [18:04] And what they lay out in this piece is [18:06] that there are two possibilities for [18:09] what Trump has in mind, for what he's [18:12] doing with these negotiations. [18:15] So what they say here is, "Following the [18:17] direct US attack on Iran, the American [18:19] administration initially appeared to [18:21] believe that a combination of targeted [18:24] assassinations and limited strikes could [18:27] deliver um [18:29] a tactical advantage and give them and [18:32] and move and make this a quick victory." [18:35] Okay? And then it says that Iran [18:37] responded rapidly, and because of all of [18:40] this, taken together, these developments [18:42] deprived America and Israel not only of [18:45] the prospect of victory, but even of the [18:47] feeling of victory. [18:49] Now, roughly a month into the conflict, [18:51] the consequences of that strategic shift [18:53] are becoming increasingly visible. [18:56] Following the military developments, [18:57] yeah, the UN condemned uh saying that [18:59] the UN's uh Human Rights Council [19:02] condemned America and Israel for [19:04] attacking them. [19:06] On the broader level, the effects of the [19:07] closure of the Strait of Hormuz are [19:09] beginning to show up in the global [19:11] economy and international livelihoods, [19:13] while Washington has so far demonstrated [19:15] neither the capacity nor an effective [19:17] mechanism to open it. On the military [19:20] front, enemy air defense systems have [19:22] struggled to contain Iran's missile [19:23] barrages. Yeah, whatever. And even [19:25] advanced American aircraft, such as the [19:27] F-35, have not been able have not been [19:30] beyond the reach of Iranian air [19:32] defenses. That's all not true. [19:34] Alongside these developments, the [19:36] Iranian Republic's strategy of combining [19:38] resistance with negotiation [19:41] has increasingly been presented both [19:42] domestically and abroad as a more [19:44] rational and defensible approach. The [19:46] cumulative result of these developments [19:49] is that the United States and Israel [19:50] have not only fai- [19:52] failed to secure decisive victory, but [19:54] have also lost the ability to credibly [19:56] and cost-effectively claim an absolute [19:58] victory. [19:59] Under these conditions, Trump faces a [20:01] fundamental problem. How to exit the [20:04] conflict without allowing defeat to be [20:07] formally stamped on the White House. And [20:09] then they go into the two options for [20:11] for Trump. Two scenarios before Trump. [20:15] Scenario number one, declare victory and [20:17] end the conflict unilaterally. You know, [20:20] unilaterally. [20:22] Okay, before we get into the two [20:23] scenarios they lay out here for the two [20:25] options Trump has now going forward. Let [20:27] me explain what's going on. [20:29] Trump has, as we said, he's deliberately [20:32] unpredictable. This is why I started the [20:34] video with that. He's deliberately [20:35] unpredictable. [20:37] And he is driving them a little nuts. [20:39] And that's why they're writing articles [20:41] like this. Articles like this that try [20:42] to figure out the different options that [20:44] Trump has and project [20:48] what Trump is thinking and what Trump's [20:51] strategy is. So, why do they do that? [20:53] Not to reveal not to show their cards, [20:55] but it's a way of saying you're not [20:57] fooling us. We have you figured out. [21:00] You think that you're fooling us. You [21:02] think that you're keeping us guessing. [21:03] No, no, no. We know exactly what you're [21:05] doing. So, here's the chessboard and [21:08] here is exactly what you're trying to [21:09] pull on us. Okay, it's a way of [21:11] projecting power and saying we're on to [21:14] you. Okay, so scenario number one, [21:15] declare victory and end the conflict. [21:18] The first scenario and the less costly [21:20] option for Trump would be for the US [21:22] president to declare an end to the [21:23] conflict through media and messaging [21:26] alone without any meaningful shift on [21:28] the battlefield while simultaneously [21:30] claiming victory. Okay? Trump has done [21:32] this before. When the US was attacking [21:34] the Houthis last year, they inflicted [21:36] some damage, but originally Trump said [21:38] he would wipe them out. He didn't and [21:39] then [21:41] he just said, okay, we've done what we [21:42] planned to do and he left. [21:45] Now, it's true they stopped a lot of the [21:46] attacks on on global shipping, but that [21:48] wasn't the original uh intent of that [21:50] operation. So, they're they're betting [21:53] uh and this is I've been saying this [21:54] since before the war. They're betting [21:55] that because of all of these problems in [21:57] the in the Strait of Hormuz and the rise [21:59] in oil prices and and and the and the [22:03] pressure domestically to end this thing, [22:06] that Trump is looking for an off-ramp [22:07] and therefore they're saying Trump could [22:09] just declare victory and go away. In the [22:11] eyes of many observers, this is the most [22:13] likely option currently available to the [22:14] White House. Under this scenario, [22:17] Trump would attempt to rely on media [22:20] framing and narrative management to [22:22] portray withdraw withdrawal not as a [22:24] retreat, but as a successful completion [22:27] of the limited objectives. [22:29] The problem, however, is that such a [22:30] claim would be difficult to sustain even [22:33] if amplified by the American media [22:35] apparatus [22:36] because it would ring hollow in the eyes [22:38] of both the US and the US's allies. [22:42] Okay, that's so that's number one. [22:45] Okay? So, [22:47] scenario number two, a big move to [22:50] manufacture the image of victory. Okay, [22:52] so scenario number one that Trump has, [22:55] option number one that that the Iranians [22:56] are saying that Trump has to end the war [22:59] is just to declare victory and say we've [23:00] accomplished our goals and leave. And [23:02] that is a possibility. Trump could do [23:04] that. [23:06] The sec but I it's it's unlikely [23:07] considering the behavior. The second [23:09] scenario is far riskier and in the logic [23:12] of this analysis far more reckless. In [23:14] this version, Trump might seek to escape [23:16] the current deadlock and create a more [23:18] tangible image of victory by pursuing a [23:20] dramatic but costly action. [23:24] And he would then [23:26] he would uh and it would be large enough [23:28] to ops to offset other setbacks [23:31] and it would look like a big [23:32] achievement. That big bite could take [23:33] the form of a high-profile commando raid [23:36] inside Iran, an attempt to temporarily [23:38] seize one of Iran's islands in the [23:39] Persian Gulf, or a visible but limited [23:42] strike on critical Iranian [23:43] infrastructure, especially in the energy [23:45] sector. In other words, they're saying [23:47] scenario number two is that Trump wants [23:49] to project the image of victory that's [23:51] more convincing than scenario number one [23:54] and therefore he's going to do some [23:55] dramatic big-time operation that looks [23:57] like it's changing the balance of [23:58] things. A me maybe attacking as they [24:01] said, seizing one of the islands in the [24:02] Persian Gulf, attacking Iranian [24:04] infrastructure connected to energy, [24:06] something like that, a high-profile [24:07] commando raid. [24:09] Within this framework, some analysts [24:11] also point to more complex chaos-driven [24:13] possibilities. Okay. [24:18] It says uh and then on and then they go [24:20] through the different details of this. [24:23] Iran's islands, a potential trap for the [24:25] for an American gamble. From the [24:26] perspective of some some analytical [24:28] circles in Iran, they always do this. [24:31] If Trump moves toward the second [24:33] scenario, he will be stepping into risks [24:35] that extend far beyond the assumptions [24:37] of the American military and security [24:39] establishment. In other words, the idea [24:41] of seizing an Iranian island pushes [24:43] Trump toward an impulsive commando [24:45] operation, which would actually unfold [24:47] on the ground [24:49] what would actually unfold on the ground [24:51] may bear little resemblance to the [24:52] victory image. Okay, so that could be [24:54] risky. So, they're saying, okay, the [24:56] seizure of an island, which would be one [24:58] dramatic option for for scenario number [25:00] two, could be a little too costly. [25:04] Okay? [25:06] And then it says, another option is [25:07] striking infrastructure. [25:09] That's another version of option two. [25:11] Another version of the second scenario [25:13] where Trump wants to do some big [25:14] dramatic act to signal victory would [25:17] involve a limited but highly visible [25:19] attack on Iran's energy infrastructure [25:21] and strategic facilities. Yet even this [25:24] option, according to the same line of [25:25] analysis, offers no guarantee of [25:27] shifting the balance. [25:30] Okay, first, if Washington were to move [25:32] in this direction, it would likely not [25:33] be seeking an all-out war, but rather a [25:35] limited operation intended to produce [25:38] psychological shock and media impact. [25:40] The problem is that Iran's energy [25:41] architecture, contrary to the [25:43] assumptions of some Americans, is [25:45] neither entirely centralized nor easily [25:48] crippled and therefore even if Trump [25:49] chose some big attack on an energy [25:51] facility, it wouldn't have the desired [25:53] effect. [25:55] Second, Iran's options are not confined [25:57] to defense within its own borders. [25:58] Tehran could respond by escalating [26:00] missile strikes on sensitive targets, [26:02] extending maritime pressure from the [26:04] Strait of Hormuz to Bab el-Mandeb, [26:07] or activating allied fronts against [26:09] Israel elsewhere in the region. [26:12] Bab el-Mandeb, let's just review what [26:14] that means. Let's pull it up on screen. [26:17] Bab el-Mandeb Strait. [26:19] Let's go to the map. [26:22] Let's go to the map. [26:24] Get rid of that. [26:25] Okay. [26:27] This is the Bab el-Mandeb Strait here. [26:29] Let's pull out a little more. [26:31] Here we go. [26:33] Here's Iran. Here's the Strait of [26:35] Hormuz. This is where all the fighting's [26:36] taking place. Strait Strait of Hormuz. [26:38] Here's Here's Here's Iran. Here's Saudi [26:40] Arabia. Here's Yemen. This is the Bab [26:43] el-Mandeb Strait down here. Okay? Down [26:45] here. [26:46] This is the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and [26:48] this is where the Houthis are. So, here [26:52] what they're saying in this in this [26:54] piece is, look, the retaliation if Trump [26:56] wants to try to do some dramatic thing [26:58] like hitting some energy infrastructure [27:00] or taking one of the islands in the [27:01] Persian Gulf, we have ways of [27:02] escalating. We could shut down shipping [27:04] in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which would [27:06] only make the problem Trump's trying to [27:07] solve in the Strait of Hormuz even worse [27:09] cuz we could cut off even more global [27:10] shipping. How would they do that? With [27:12] their Houthi proxies, which is why it's [27:14] notable that the Houthis res- joined the [27:16] war a couple days ago, started firing [27:18] missiles and drones at Israel again. [27:20] Okay? So, [27:23] um and then and then they say [27:26] and here's how they end the piece. The [27:27] broader conclusion of this analysis is [27:29] that under the second scenario, Trump is [27:31] already in a structurally losing [27:33] position. Any attempt to manufacture an [27:36] artificial victory through limited but [27:38] high-risk operations offers no guarantee [27:40] of success and may instead drag [27:42] Washington into a deeper and more [27:43] dangerous quagmire. [27:45] See, they're playing to the fears of [27:47] Trump of the Trump administration of [27:48] getting entangled in a quagmire. [27:51] Um in this framework, Trump's current [27:54] position resembles that of a man trapped [27:56] up to his neck in a deep swamp. The only [27:58] fragile lifeline still within his reach [28:00] is to pull back from the confrontation [28:02] with Iran and declare it over in [28:04] whatever form he can. In other words, [28:06] option number one. [28:07] The alternative thrashing The [28:09] alternative thrashing harder through [28:11] limited strikes on energy infrastructure [28:13] and adventurous commando operations may [28:15] still remain on the table, but for many [28:17] observers, its outcome is already [28:18] predictable. Higher costs, a deeper [28:21] crisis, and a heavier defeat. This is [28:25] an amazing piece. Okay, let me [28:28] Let's Let's just sum up what just [28:29] happened here. Stay with me. [28:32] Since the beginning of the war, since [28:34] before the war, I've been saying that [28:36] the entire strategy of the Iranian [28:38] regime, they know they can't beat the [28:40] Americans on the battlefield. They're [28:41] not even trying to. [28:42] The Americans and the Israelis. They're [28:43] not even trying to. That is not their [28:45] strategy. [28:46] Their strategy is only to prolong this, [28:50] to to cause the [28:52] the the gas prices to rise, to cause [28:55] more global instability, to make the [28:58] whole world uneasy about this, [29:00] to cause political problems at home for [29:02] Trump because of these economic issues [29:04] that the war is causing, [29:05] to make it last longer than Trump wants [29:07] it to last and to make Trump uh [29:10] impatient [29:12] and [29:13] and that shifts the leverage in the [29:15] negotiations in their direction. If [29:17] Trump wants to end the war and and is [29:19] desperate to move forward on that, [29:21] then they gain and they have a chance at [29:24] surviving. They don't care how much [29:26] damage is done to their country. Okay, [29:27] let's make it clear. [29:29] All they care about is that the regime [29:31] is still in charge when the dust settles [29:32] because then they can they can play ball [29:34] with Trump, keep their head down until [29:36] the end of the Trump administration. The [29:38] Chinese will come in with their money. [29:39] The Chinese need to rebuild Iran. It's a [29:41] very important asset for them. The [29:42] Russians also have an interest in this [29:44] and the Chinese helped Iran rebuild very [29:46] quickly uh the 12-day war and they could [29:50] reconstitute themselves. Their whole [29:52] goal in this war is to simply drag it [29:55] out, escalate, and stay in power. [29:57] And here they lay out with Trump [30:00] with Trump signaling, they're reading [30:02] between the lines and saying, you know, [30:04] it looks like he's trying to end this. [30:06] Trump keeps talking about he originally [30:07] said it would be it would be, you know, [30:08] 5 weeks or so. We're coming up on that. [30:11] Uh they know that Trump keeps talking [30:13] about there's going to be a deal very [30:14] soon. We destroyed them. We basically [30:16] won. They see Trump looking for an [30:18] off-ramp. [30:19] So, what they're signaling here is, [30:21] "Dude, you got a choice. You can either [30:23] just end this now in which case we're [30:25] still, you know, you could say it's a [30:26] victory, but you're gone and and we're [30:28] still in power. Or you can try something [30:30] dramatic, but that's also not going to [30:32] work out for you." [30:33] This is a way of signaling to Trump that [30:37] he's better off just ending the war now [30:39] and leaving. [30:40] Uh and that any other option is only [30:42] going to be worse for him. [30:45] Uh and then they also had this this [30:47] other piece up which was posted a couple [30:49] days ago, a 10-day pause or an exit [30:51] plan. And this is similar stuff. It goes [30:53] through [30:54] all the options of why Trump uh [30:58] extended the deadline on his ultimatum [31:01] for the Iranians to make a deal. [31:03] Um [31:05] this 10-day pause, right? So, [31:08] is it performative diplomacy, building a [31:10] shield of legitimacy while he prepares [31:13] for the next strike? Is it just a [31:14] military pause while, you know, while [31:17] you know, while they assess the damage [31:19] and reposition their naval assets and [31:21] move equipment into the region? [31:23] Which, by the way, is a real suspicion [31:25] the Iranians have. Let's go back to this [31:27] map. Right now, the US has a couple of [31:29] aircraft carriers in this area here in [31:31] the Mediterranean or the one of them is [31:33] in Crete. [31:35] And the the plan is to move them down [31:37] through the Suez Canal and bring them [31:39] down through the Red Sea and get over [31:40] there to join the fighting. They could [31:42] even join the fighting by porting here [31:45] in Saudi Arabia and then flying sorties [31:47] across Saudi Arabia. They could do that, [31:48] too. [31:49] But that's [snorts] uh and that's one uh [31:52] one uh common speculation right now by [31:56] experts [31:57] that perhaps uh that's why the Houthis [31:59] have just joined the war and started [32:00] firing missiles at Israel because they [32:02] want to uh they want to make it [32:05] uncomfortable for the Americans to move [32:06] those aircraft carriers down into the [32:08] Red Sea. [32:10] So, they're speculating that maybe [32:11] that's what Trump is doing with the [32:12] 10-day break. Uh and then it says, [32:15] "Controlled ambiguity, a war advanced [32:17] through uncertainty." This is great. [32:19] This is them interpreting Trump's [32:21] unpredictability doctrine. Announcing 10 [32:24] days of patience generates several [32:26] several conflicting signals at once. And [32:29] they might be right about this, by the [32:30] way. For Iran, it raises the question of [32:32] whether the attack has been canceled or [32:34] postponed. For the US allies, it creates [32:37] uncertainty over whether Washington is [32:38] still prepared to escalate or is looking [32:41] to reduce tensions to burn off-ramp. And [32:43] for public opinion, it suggests that the [32:45] crisis may be nearing its end, which is [32:46] good for oil prices. The ambiguity is [32:49] itself a tool of pressure. It keeps the [32:52] other side waiting. It suspends its [32:54] calculations and slows decision-making. [32:56] In many wars, controlled uncertainty, [32:59] bolded. Look at that. Only bolded words [33:00] here. Controlled uncertainty becomes as [33:03] much a part of the operation as the [33:05] strikes themselves. This is an [33:07] absolutely fascinating [33:09] uh section here, paragraph, cuz it's [33:11] basically it's very accurate. It's [33:12] saying, "This is what Trump is doing by [33:15] giving mixed signals. It's controlled [33:17] ambiguity." And I think they're right [33:18] about this. And this is why I said [33:21] they're freaking out. [33:23] This this piece and the previous piece [33:25] that I showed you are just trying to [33:27] interpret Trump's mixed messages. You [33:30] can see that they're freaking out, that [33:32] they're confused. So, they're they're um [33:35] their coping mechanism is to put out [33:37] there all of the analysis that covers [33:39] all of all the bases and then and then [33:41] they can kind of it's it's weird, but [33:43] they can say that we they can kind of [33:45] save face by saying that they understood [33:48] what Trump was doing all along. Look, we [33:49] just said it. [33:52] And they said um [33:54] and then it might be preparing an exit [33:56] operation. [33:57] Uh [33:58] might be, you know, this is this 10 days [34:00] might be a a cover for them just [34:02] planning to get out of there. [34:04] And then they finish off uh well, they [34:07] have they have what do they have? Sorry, [34:08] they have six options for what Trump is [34:09] doing with this ambiguity. One of them [34:12] is a gap between Washington and Tel [34:14] Aviv. That uh it's signaling that [34:17] America is doing things more, you know, [34:20] uh [34:20] it's thinking about more different [34:23] factors in the war. Israel seeks rapid, [34:25] hard, maximalist blows, whereas the [34:27] United States thinks beyond the [34:30] thinks beyond the battlefield to energy [34:32] markets, domestic political costs, [34:34] potential casualties, regional [34:35] spillover, and the risk of being dragged [34:38] into a prolonged war. [34:40] And that that is why any pause is not [34:43] necessarily only a message to Iran, but [34:46] it could also be a message to Tel Aviv. [34:48] A message suggesting that Washington may [34:50] no longer be willing to absorb unlimited [34:52] costs for a war whose returns are [34:55] increasingly unclear. So, what they're [34:58] trying to say here here they're trying [34:59] to put out there that maybe this is a [35:01] signal that the US and Israel are no [35:03] longer standing at exactly the same [35:05] point in this war. And number six, time [35:08] is being bought for the American [35:09] domestic front, too. [35:12] And here he's saying that maybe the 10 [35:13] days gives enough time to craft the [35:15] messaging, to give the media time to [35:17] absorb what's coming next, to give the [35:20] Republican political base time to align [35:22] itself, to allow the opponents of this [35:25] war to [35:26] or of this ultimatum to scream and yell [35:28] and let it die down. And then the White [35:31] House can decide how they're going to [35:32] package what they do next. So, that's [35:34] about managing the domestic front. [35:37] Okay. And so, this is a fascinating [35:39] piece cuz again, all it is is trying to [35:41] figure out what Trump is doing with this [35:44] 10-day [35:45] with this 10-day delay. Okay. So, that's [35:48] the state of things now. I don't know if [35:49] I've answered any questions, but at [35:51] least we've at least we now see [35:54] how the Iranians are thinking. [35:56] They're They are confused. They're I [35:59] think they're kind of panicking over the [36:01] fact that they don't know what Trump is [36:02] going to do. [36:04] Ghalibaf is denying that he's in [36:05] negotiations. Trump says he is. I [36:07] believe Trump. I believe that Ghalibaf [36:09] is speaking to him. I believe that [36:10] that's a mistake for the reasons that I [36:12] laid out. [36:13] But at the same time, the Iranians are [36:15] are signaling that they're very [36:16] suspicious of the Americans, that they [36:18] believe that to some extent or that they [36:21] believe that these negotiations may very [36:22] well be just a cover for moving more [36:24] military assets into the region. We know [36:26] that ground troops are arriving. We have [36:28] these aircraft carriers arriving. [36:30] And they think it might be a cover for [36:32] an attack. That's how they saw the [36:33] 12-day war. There were negotiations [36:35] happening. There were supposed to be [36:36] negotiations that, you know, that [36:38] weekend and then Israel launched the [36:40] 12-day war. Same thing happened with [36:42] this war. There were negotiations, then [36:43] they launched the war. So, the Iranians [36:45] fear that that's what's happening now. [36:47] And you can see as they're trying to [36:49] understand Trump, but they're also [36:51] trying to you know, to to shape things [36:53] and signal that if Trump doesn't get out [36:56] soon, this war could end up being [36:58] everything he doesn't want it to be, [37:00] prolonged conflict, boots on the ground, [37:04] more um [37:05] you know, more more global disruptions [37:07] in the oil markets, etc. So, that's [37:09] where things stand right now. [37:11] Uh [37:12] I I I don't know what to think, folks. I [37:14] don't know if if there's going to be [37:17] another, you know, if Trump's going to [37:18] escalate, if that's what [37:20] if the negotiations are just a cover for [37:22] that. He is unpredictable. I am worried [37:24] about him making a deal with Ghalibaf, [37:26] but if he does, [37:28] it's just not going to last because the [37:29] Iranian people won't stand for it. The [37:30] regime will be very weakened. And if the [37:32] people take to the streets, [37:34] the protests aren't going to be able to [37:37] be suppressed in the way that they used [37:38] to be. So, that's where things stand [37:40] right now. Hard to say where things are [37:41] going, but that's my report. God bless.
