Transcript [00:00] Hey everyone. So in this Iran update, I [00:02] want to focus not on what's going on [00:03] inside Iran or with the negotiations [00:05] with the US, but what is going on with [00:08] Iran's proxies, you know, the Houthis, [00:11] uh the various uh helpers that I'm [00:15] sorry, the various helpers that Iran has [00:16] in the region. And it's really important [00:19] that at this critical stage of of where [00:21] everything is that we pay close [00:23] attention to Iran's proxies. Let me [00:26] explain why. First of all, Iran keeps [00:28] threatening wider regional conflict and [00:31] escalation. And I've explained this uh I [00:33] I explained this in a video on the [00:35] Israel 365 channel. I also have an [00:37] opinion piece coming out in the [00:38] Jerusalem Post soon that's going to talk [00:40] about this that Iran's calculation is [00:44] that Trump while he's willing to take [00:46] decisive military action, see Venezuela, [00:50] see Midnight Hammer, see what he did to [00:52] the Houthis, uh hammering them for a few [00:55] days or for a few weeks, however long [00:57] that was, he's not he's very averse to [01:01] any kind of escalation or prolonged [01:03] conflict. And therefore they're trying [01:05] to push that button and they keep saying [01:07] it every day. Wider regional conflict, [01:09] wider regional conflict. And I've talked [01:10] about the fact that um when you're [01:13] talking about sovereign states joining a [01:15] conflict, the chances are zero. Zero. I [01:19] call them zero. That any sovereign [01:21] nation that I could think I can't think [01:22] of a single one that would come to the [01:24] aid of the Iranians and fight the [01:26] Americans along with them. That said, [01:30] Iran does have proxies in the region and [01:32] the proxies were largely silent during [01:34] the 12-day war and Iran is threatening [01:36] that the proxies will act up and that [01:39] could bring the wider regional conflict. [01:42] Okay. So, we have to pay attention to [01:44] what is going on with those proxies. So, [01:48] first of all, we have a uh a [01:51] a brand new story here. Where is it? [01:54] Here we go. [01:55] This is is a very recent news item that [01:58] Israel has been launching air strikes [02:01] and this has been going on the last [02:02] Israel's constantly [02:05] uh carrying out strikes in South [02:06] Lebanon. I mean, they do it, [02:09] you know, fairly regularly ever since [02:11] the official ceasefire, [02:13] and they're doing it to enforce the [02:15] ceasefire because continues to violate [02:17] it by having personnel and weapons um [02:21] and trying to rebuild their terrorist [02:23] infrastructure south south of the Latani [02:25] River near Israel's border, but they've [02:27] been ramping them up in the last few [02:29] days. [02:30] Israeli air strikes on southern Lebanon [02:32] killed two people in the last 12 hours, [02:35] Lebanon's health ministry said on [02:37] Tuesday. In a written statement, the [02:38] ministry said Israeli forces targeted [02:40] two towns in the south of south of the [02:42] country [02:45] and um they fired multiple missiles. [02:48] Okay great. [02:50] And then we have and this is a different [02:53] strike also from the last day. Israeli [02:57] forces weapons depots and rocket [03:00] launchers hit in South Lebanon. More [03:02] attacks uh going on in South Lebanon. [03:06] The terrorist organization continues to [03:08] attempt to reestablish terrorist [03:10] infrastructure in southern Lebanon. And [03:12] Israel is uh is eliminating these [03:15] threats. And we also had from from two [03:19] days ago, Israeli strike in eastern [03:21] Lebanon kills four targets, Islamic [03:23] jihad. [03:25] So, Israel is ramping up the attacks in [03:27] South Lebanon. Now, that obviously is [03:30] connected to what is going on in Iran [03:32] because, you know, there's nothing [03:34] pressing per se about the South Lebanon [03:37] situation. When I say nothing pressing [03:40] per se, it's that of course are bad [03:42] actors and they're trying to rebuild [03:43] after all of the losses that they [03:45] suffered during the course of this war. [03:48] We all remember the Beeper attack and [03:49] everything that followed it. But this [03:52] escalation of Israel really ramping up [03:55] the the pace of these attacks and taking [03:57] up weapons depots is clearly linked to [04:01] what's going on in Iran because [04:04] keeps saying that they're going to join [04:05] the war if there's an attack on Iran. [04:08] And Israel is is trying to weaken them [04:10] and degrade them and deter them as much [04:13] as possible in the leadup to that uh so [04:16] that there's little chance of a threat [04:18] coming from them. At the same time, uh, [04:21] the country of Lebanon, yeah, this dude [04:24] here is now Salam. He's the prime [04:25] minister of Lebanon. [04:28] So, Lebanon opens door to expand [04:29] ceasefire oversight as it moves to [04:32] disarmah. And there were also reports [04:34] that at the Munich Security Conference [04:36] just the other day, the Israelis and the [04:38] Lebanese met to talk about this this [04:41] attempt to disarmah. Lebanon's [04:43] government said it's prepared to broaden [04:45] its participation in the international [04:48] committee overseeing the ceasefire with [04:50] Israel and pledging to push forward with [04:52] plans to disarmah in the country's south [04:55] in the most assertive signal yet from [04:58] Beirut that it intends to reclaim [05:00] sovereignty over territory long [05:03] controlled by the Iranbacked militia. [05:06] Um, so Prime Minister Na Salam said [05:09] additional Lebanese civilian experts, [05:11] including lawyers and topographers, [05:13] could be brought in to the US-led [05:15] monitoring body to help resolve the [05:18] outstanding disputes, etc. We're not [05:20] seeking confrontation withah, but we are [05:23] not going to be intimidated by anyone. [05:25] Now, that means that they are seeking [05:27] confrontation. There's no way, just like [05:29] Hamas and Gaza, there's no way to get [05:31] the weapons away from without actual [05:33] confrontation. the Lebanese government [05:36] is kind of stuck here because part of [05:38] the government. They're part of the [05:40] parliament. Um, [05:43] and they have they have all those Shiite [05:46] followers in the south of Lebanon. At [05:48] the same time, the Lebanese are being [05:50] really want to join the more moderate uh [05:54] Arab nations in the Middle East. They're [05:56] not a radicalized population. [05:59] uh and they're really kind of caught [06:01] between, meaning they're not one of [06:02] these heavy heavy uh Islamic [06:05] countries, but they're also, you know, [06:08] not in the Abraham Accords model of uh [06:11] of cozying up to America and Israel. And [06:13] a lot of that has to do withah's [06:14] presence there. So, they're signaling uh [06:17] that they are going to move forward with [06:20] an attempt to arm, I'm sorry, to [06:22] disarmah. Meanwhile, Israel, as we just [06:24] said, is attacking them. and Naim Kasim, [06:27] the head ofbah [06:30] uh has been, you know, the secretary [06:32] general, the head ofah put out a [06:34] statement the other day saying that the [06:37] situation cannot continue. Naim Kasim [06:40] gives two reasons behind patience. In [06:42] other words, he has to justify why is he [06:44] not retaliating against the Israelis as [06:47] they continue to pound him. He's looking [06:49] he's looking completely impotent. He's [06:52] getting air strikes carried out killing [06:54] his operatives in South Lebanon. He's [06:56] not doing anything. So he gives two [06:58] reasons in this statement for his [07:01] restraint. He says here, "We do not want [07:02] war. We do not seek it, but we will not [07:05] surrender and we are ready to defend. [07:06] There's a big difference between defense [07:09] and initiating war." He explained that [07:12] patience is intentional and based on [07:14] polit on a political calculation rather [07:16] than weakness. You know, he has to [07:18] justify. If you have to explain to [07:19] people why you're not really being weak, [07:21] you're probably pretty weak. We are [07:22] patient for two reasons, he said. First, [07:25] the state is responsible and must carry [07:28] out its duties, meaning he doesn't want [07:29] to go to war with the Lebanese [07:30] government. Second, out of care for our [07:33] society and our country at this stage. [07:35] Oh yes, cares so deeply about Lebanese [07:38] society and Lebanese country. They would [07:40] never take any actions that would bring [07:42] destruction or bring attacks on the [07:44] Lebanese. Oh no, no, no. You see, this [07:47] is what he's signaling here is [07:51] um that that they care about Lebanon. [07:55] You see, the Lebanese people, other than [07:58] the actual Shiites who support hatebah [08:01] becauseah is the cause of so much of [08:03] their of their trouble. If not forbah, [08:06] they wouldn't have Israelis bombing [08:08] their cities and and they wouldn't have [08:11] all of the problems that they have. If [08:13] they didn't have there, they would [08:15] probably be part of the more moderate [08:17] circle of nations in the Middle East. Uh [08:19] they have a large Christian population. [08:21] They have other sects there that are not [08:23] interested in any kind of jihad against [08:24] Israel. So he's saying here that we care [08:27] about society. Uh because he has to give [08:29] an excuse for why they haven't lifted a [08:31] finger in response to Israel carrying [08:34] out these strikes against them. So [08:37] they're they look pretty deterred and [08:38] weak right now even though they keep [08:40] saying that they're going to join the [08:41] war. Uh in a televised address [08:44] commemorating the anniversary of the [08:45] martyrdom of seniorbah [08:48] commanders Naim Kasum said the [08:50] resistance remains unwavering affirming [08:53] our school of thought is solid and [08:55] persistent and we will carry on the path [08:57] paved by the martyrs. Right? He's [08:59] talking tough. The confrontation with [09:01] Israel is existential. [09:04] Okay. So he is signaling that he's [09:08] willing to fight. We do not want war. We [09:10] do not seek it, but we will not [09:11] surrender. We are ready to defend. [09:15] And there's a vast difference between [09:16] defense and initiating a war. So, he's [09:18] talking tough, but again, if history [09:20] shows anything, uh I don't think we have [09:22] to worry about joining any kind of [09:25] escalation. They don't really have the [09:27] capabilities. And I think we're going to [09:28] see more of this in the coming days [09:31] before any possible strikes against Iran [09:34] by the Americans. I think we are going [09:37] to see more and more acceleration and [09:41] escalation of Israeli strikes onah to [09:43] degrade them as much as possible to make [09:46] their participation in any war uh of [09:49] Iran against the US or against US assets [09:52] against Israel less likely. Now let's [09:54] check in on the on the Houthis in Yemen. [09:57] Yemen's ansula that's the Houthis warns [10:00] against US warns US against any raid on [10:04] Iran. Muhammad Bukiti told Iranian TV [10:07] that attacking Iran would amount to [10:09] full-scale war in the region. We are men [10:11] of action, not words. Ansarula's support [10:14] comes as the Iraqi anti-terror [10:16] resistance movement, Iraq, Iraq's Kata [10:19] Kisbollah, has also expressed its [10:21] backing for Iran in the event of a war. [10:23] The movement said it was ready to enter [10:24] any possible war in defense of Iran, [10:27] calling on resistance fighters worldwide [10:29] to mobilize for this purpose. In a [10:31] strongly worded statement issued [10:33] recently, the movement called on those [10:35] willing to confront the front of [10:37] disbelief. It really should be [10:38] translated as unbelief because that's [10:40] not about disbelief in English implies [10:42] like you know you're not well I can't [10:44] believe that this is but this is [10:45] referring to uh to the infidels to those [10:48] of us who don't believe in Allah. The [10:50] front of disbelief and hypocrisy to [10:52] prepare for a cons a comprehensive war [10:54] in support of Iran. It described the [10:56] Islamic Republic as a fortress and [10:58] source of pride for the Muslim Ummah. [11:00] Okay. So, here we have uh the Houthis [11:04] pledging that they will be a part of it [11:05] and they're warning the United States [11:07] against uh you know against uh against [11:10] this war. Look, I'll just remind you [11:12] again during the 12-day warbellah [11:15] did nothing. [11:18] Iraqi, what's called Katibisbah, [11:21] launched a few drones, didn't do much, [11:24] and the Houthis launched three missiles [11:26] that caused very little damage. And but [11:28] now they're all signaling, they're all [11:30] messaging that they're going to join and [11:32] they're going to fight and they're [11:33] warning and escalation because this is [11:35] all part of the Iranian strategy to [11:38] plant these seeds of doubt, uh, these [11:41] fears of escalation. And what they're [11:43] hoping for also, and they're getting it, [11:45] is that from the more uh isolationist [11:47] wing of the America First movement, they [11:49] will get a lot of fear-mongering like [11:51] they got last time, saying that, you [11:53] know, there's going to be an escalation, [11:54] there's going to be an escalation, and [11:55] therefore America uh should, you know, [11:58] should look for an off-ramp and not get [12:00] involved in any kinetic conflict. Uh [12:02] meanwhile, uh just to throw in a word [12:06] about China, who is not a proxy of Iran, [12:08] just the opposite. Iran's more of a [12:10] proxy of China, but but China is Iran's [12:12] main ally. They purchase about 80% 80 to [12:14] 90% of Iran's oil. And [12:18] this is a very interesting story from [12:20] just a couple days ago. It went under [12:22] the radar, I have to admit, I didn't [12:23] notice it at first, that Trump and [12:25] Netanyahu agreed that the US should [12:27] press Iran to cut oil sales to China. [12:31] Looking so basically looking at some [12:33] renewed sanctions perhaps to curb Iran's [12:37] oil exports to China. Let me explain the [12:39] background of this. This is very [12:40] important. During Trump's first term, [12:43] there were sanctions on Iran that [12:47] prohibited any country from purchasing [12:49] Iranian oil. And if any country, any [12:52] country that would purchase Iranian oil [12:54] could not do business with the US. And [12:56] that meant that the only country openly [12:58] purchasing Iranian oil was North Korea. [13:00] The Chinese were still purchasing some [13:03] Iranian oil, but they were they were [13:05] using all sorts of what's called ghost [13:06] fleets where you take the oil out and [13:08] you move it to another ship and you kind [13:10] of conceal the fact that it's coming [13:12] from the source that it's coming from. [13:14] So, they were doing it on the sly. The [13:16] quantities were far less than they are [13:18] now. Um, and so the Chinese were not [13:21] officially buying Iranian oil. During [13:23] the Biden administration, all of the [13:25] sanctions on Iran on the Iranian uh oil [13:28] industry were lifted by the Biden [13:29] administration and China then signed a [13:32] massive agreement with Iran to purchase [13:35] large quantities of their oil. [13:39] And when Trump came into office, [13:40] although he put a lot of sanctions back [13:42] on Iran, he did not put back this [13:45] sanction. He did not put back this [13:48] prohibition basically on any country on [13:51] all countries from buying Iranian oil, [13:53] the sanction if they do so. Uh that they [13:56] can't do business with the US. He didn't [13:58] put it back. And at the time I raised [14:00] the issue in some of the videos I made [14:01] and some of my writings that why is he [14:03] not doing that? And I understand though [14:06] why Trump did not put that back because [14:07] you know Trump is looking at the whole [14:09] map and he knows he's got to deal with [14:11] the Chinese Communist Party eventually. [14:13] But that would be a very it's a very [14:15] aggressive move to prevent China from [14:18] being able to buy Iranian oils even [14:19] though it would the Iranian [14:21] regime which Trump is interested in. He [14:24] doesn't I don't think he wants to [14:25] antagonate the ch I don't think he wants [14:27] to antagonize the Chinese in that way at [14:31] this time. And that's how I interpreted [14:32] the fact that he hadn't put those [14:33] sanctions back. So I think it's very [14:35] interesting that now uh in the midst of [14:38] all of this he there is now they're now [14:41] signaling possibility of moving back [14:44] towards those types of sanctions where [14:46] China wouldn't be able to buy Iranian [14:48] oil. Now if if that actually happens [14:51] that would be huge. Although the Chinese [14:53] are pushing back on this [14:55] uh according to the story here um you [14:59] know the Chinese are are basically not [15:00] happy. Asked about the report, China's [15:02] foreign ministry said on Sunday that [15:05] normal cooperation between countries [15:07] conducted within the framework of [15:08] international law is reasonable and [15:10] legitimate and should be respected and [15:12] protected. So basically saying, look, [15:14] our purchasing of oil from Iran is two [15:16] sovereign nations and we're doing [15:17] business and you shouldn't do anything [15:19] to curb that. Again, this is all don't [15:21] get don't get fooled by this nonsense. [15:24] These despotic regimes that rule over [15:26] their people against their people's will [15:28] are not legitimate regimes. Okay? These [15:31] are criminal organizations that have [15:33] taken over. If I just take over a [15:34] country by force and force everyone by [15:37] the, you know, by the point of a gun to [15:39] do what I say, I'm not a legitimate [15:40] government. So trade between the Iranian [15:43] regime and the CCP is not, we don't have [15:46] to worry about legitimacy here, but [15:48] they're obviously pushing back on this. [15:50] The Chinese Communist Party does not [15:52] want this. Um and you know while so [15:54] while Trump wants to weaken Iran [15:56] possibly in preparation for taking down [15:58] the regime as he's been indicating in [16:00] the last couple of days that he is [16:02] interested in regime change he doesn't [16:04] want to antagonize doesn't want to [16:07] antagonize the Chinese too much but u [16:10] moving in this direction is is another [16:13] very significant escalation. Okay. So [16:16] that's it for uh for the um [16:20] that'll be it for the for our uh Iran [16:22] update for today. Again, focusing on [16:25] what's going on with the you know with [16:26] the proxies and the allies. Bottom line, [16:28] my belief still is that no one is going [16:31] to join the fight. I don't believe the [16:33] proxies are even going to do very much [16:35] uh in this fight and that the main [16:38] possibility of escalation might come [16:41] from the Iranians themselves launching [16:44] uh advanced missiles and a large [16:46] quantity of missiles and getting a few [16:48] of them through the air defenses that [16:51] the US is putting up all over the region [16:52] and that Israel has and that other [16:54] nations, you know, the British are [16:55] coming in now also with some air [16:56] defenses. Um, and that the Iranian [16:59] strategy is to is like I've been saying [17:01] to cause a few US casualties and cause [17:04] the pressure on Trump to mount to get [17:06] out of the region and end the conflict [17:08] before the regime can fall. That's how I [17:11] see it. Uh, all right. Uh, I hope this [17:14] is helpful. Please drop a line, drop a [17:17] comment, let me know what you think of [17:18] these videos. And please make sure to uh [17:21] you know tell other people about this, [17:22] share these videos, and check out all [17:24] the great content we're putting up at [17:26] Israel 365 News. Uh I'm in Nashville, [17:29] Tennessee. I'm attending the National [17:31] Religious Broadcasters Convention, and [17:33] uh I'm going to be putting up some [17:34] content from that convention over the [17:36] next few days as well. God bless.
