Transcript [00:00] I think something is shifting in the way [00:03] that the Iranian regime is talking about [00:05] the war. And what I mean is that [00:09] you know, what we've been used to since [00:11] before the war in the early weeks of the [00:12] war was this constant bluster about how [00:15] they're going to inflict all this [00:17] terrible damage on the Israelis and the [00:18] Americans and they're and they're going [00:20] to destroy Tel Aviv and they're going to [00:21] destroy the the American forces and and [00:25] and you know, we all kind of rolled our [00:26] eyes at that, but that was the language. [00:29] And now [00:30] um I'm going to show you a few things, a [00:32] few stories, a few statements which seem [00:35] to indicate that both Hezbollah, which [00:37] is the Iranian foreign legion as it were [00:40] in Lebanon [00:41] and the Iranian regime itself [00:44] I think is is in panic mode and [00:47] preparing its people with spin, [00:50] preparing them for the actual defeat in [00:54] a way. Um [00:55] See, if you listen carefully to what [00:57] they're saying, again, Hezbollah and the [00:59] regime in Tehran [01:01] uh you see that they they know they're [01:03] losing [01:04] and they're trying to make everyone see [01:07] the losses which everyone sees as [01:09] victory. [01:11] So, again, it's not the usual bluster we [01:12] saw before the war. Um [01:16] let's get right to the point. Hezbollah [01:18] leader Naim Qassem gave a speech [01:19] yesterday. [01:21] And now obviously I'm not going to play [01:22] you the speech. It was in Arabic. I saw [01:24] a subtitled version with Hebrew [01:25] subtitles in it. And uh I've been asked [01:29] by many of you when I've played Hebrew [01:31] language or a foreign language um videos [01:34] to just go ahead and say it instead. So, [01:37] I'm just going to share with you a [01:38] couple of quotes from Naim Qassem's [01:41] speech. Now, much of the speech was a [01:42] diatribe against the Lebanese government [01:46] because they're negotiating with Israel. [01:48] But there was a point in the speech [01:50] where he talked about victory. [01:53] Okay? And he even he even framed it by [01:56] by kind of admitting that everyone [01:58] realizes that they're losing. So, listen [02:00] to this quote. Quote, "They always say [02:03] to you, you keep saying you're [02:05] victorious even though you're being [02:07] killed." [02:09] Right? How can you Right? [02:11] They keep saying to you that you know, [02:13] you guys are just getting slaughtered [02:14] and you're just getting hammered by the [02:16] Americans and the Israelis. Why do you [02:18] keep saying that you're victorious? Or [02:20] in Hezbollah's uh example, just the [02:22] Israelis. The Americans aren't fighting [02:24] Hezbollah. [02:26] So, let me uh [02:27] yeah, so you keep saying you're [02:28] victorious even though you're being [02:29] killed. "No, my dear, no. We are [02:33] victorious from now and at every moment [02:37] despite the great sacrifices. [02:40] Victory is to stand firm on the [02:42] battlefield. [02:44] Victory is to continue confronting the [02:47] enemy. [02:48] Victory is to inflict pain on this enemy [02:52] and we are inflicting pain on him. See, [02:55] victory in this Shiite uh in this [02:59] fanatical Shiite viewpoint [03:01] is not defeating your enemy. It's not [03:04] achieving your war aims. It's continuing [03:07] to fight. It's continuing to exist. It's [03:10] continuing to impose a cost. That is [03:12] victory. [03:14] Now, it gets even clearer in this quote [03:17] from the speech. This is a great quote. [03:19] Quote, "We are men of Karbala. We do not [03:22] surrender in humiliation. Rather, we [03:25] fight until martyrdom or victory is [03:27] achieved." [03:29] And again, what victory [03:31] what he just said what victory is. [03:33] "And this is what happened with Imam [03:35] Hussein, peace be upon him. Those who [03:38] were with him were martyred and the [03:39] community has been victorious from his [03:42] time until now. And we are among his [03:46] followers and his students." [03:49] I've talked about this in other videos, [03:50] but it bears repeating. [03:52] The Battle of Karbala took place in the [03:54] year 680. [03:56] Hussein, Imam Ali Hussein, the founder [03:58] of Shiite Islam was the grandson of the [04:01] Prophet Muhammad and he led a small [04:03] group against a much larger force loyal [04:07] to the Umayyad ruler Yazid. This was a [04:10] This was a um a battle for succession in [04:13] early Islam. Now, militarily, it was not [04:17] a close fight. That's important here. [04:19] So, the the origin story of Shiite Islam [04:22] involves a horrific defeat at the hands [04:26] of a much more powerful force. Okay, it [04:29] wasn't close at all. Hussein uh was was [04:33] killed. Hussein and his followers, they [04:35] were all surrounded, they were cut off, [04:36] they were ultimately all killed in the [04:38] battle. Now, from a from a conventional [04:40] perspective um [04:43] obviously, they were terribly defeated. [04:46] But in Shiite Islam Karbala is the [04:48] formative event. They talk about it all [04:50] the time and it's understood [04:51] differently. [04:52] Hussein is seen as standing for truth [04:55] and justice, you know, fighting the man. [04:58] He's standing up against an illegitimate [05:00] power that's way more powerful than him [05:01] and he's resisting. His death was not [05:03] viewed as failure, but as a moral [05:05] victory, as an act of sacrifice that [05:08] gives uh lasting legitimacy to the cause [05:11] of Shiite Islam. [05:13] And the community that identifies with [05:15] him sees itself as continuing that [05:18] struggle across time. [05:21] Okay, now let's go back to what Qassem [05:23] is actually saying. When he invokes [05:25] Hussein and says, "We are among his [05:27] followers and his students." [05:30] He's [05:31] he's placing the Hezbollah fighters and [05:33] all the Shiites in southern Lebanon [05:35] inside that entire framework of [05:37] sacrifice, endurance. Right? Defining [05:39] victory as survival. [05:42] Uh and and as and as and as you know, [05:45] living to fight another day and [05:46] inflicting some pain on the enemy even [05:48] if you know, even if you're getting [05:50] beaten down. [05:52] Okay, so that's Naim Qassem's speech. [05:54] So, clearly I mean, he even frames it by [05:56] saying, "Well, you know, people are [05:58] saying you're getting killed. How How [05:59] How can you call it victory?" Meaning [06:01] they're trying to spin what's what's [06:03] obvious to everyone as a humiliating [06:04] defeat. They're trying to spin it as [06:06] victory. And now, let's take a look at [06:08] Iranian state media. Okay? Uh because [06:11] we're seeing something we're seeing a [06:13] similar type of messaging [06:15] if I may uh in the Iranian state media. [06:18] So, [06:19] let me just get to it. Here we are. [06:23] Okay, here's Iranian state media. [06:26] Tasnim, the IRGC media. [06:29] And look at what they are are are are [06:30] saying here. Okay? So, first of all, on [06:32] the [06:33] uh on the front page, I wanted to show [06:35] you the front page before going to the [06:37] articles I'm going to show you [06:38] because on the front page of Tasnim, [06:40] this is this is the top story. Naval [06:42] blockade will trigger retaliation. So, [06:44] there's a warning there. [06:46] Not like the It's not like the US cares [06:48] about their retaliation. [06:50] Uh is Iran asserts right to continue [06:52] uranium enrichment. But look over on the [06:54] side. Most visited. These are the top [06:55] stories. Okay, today. The most popular [06:58] stories. Now, are they actually the most [06:59] visited? This is IRGC regime media. Look [07:03] at the second story. [07:05] Spokesman lauds serviceman who lost [07:09] hands in defense of homeland in [07:11] US-Israeli war in Iran. Now, remember, [07:14] there has not been any ground invasion [07:16] at all. There's been no [07:18] hand-to-hand combat of any sort or like, [07:20] you know, direct combat. Like there's no [07:23] no one's attacking people on the ground. [07:25] And I guess if he's part of the Basij [07:26] and the Israelis are carrying out air [07:28] strikes. It's a very strange story. [07:31] And again, every story in here is [07:32] planted. Some of them deal with the [07:34] actual headlines like these top stories [07:36] on this on the side here. But what is [07:38] this story about? So, this is a very [07:40] weird story. [07:42] Okay, again, spokesman lauds serviceman [07:44] who lost hands in defense of homeland in [07:46] US-Israeli war. Check this out. The [07:48] spokesman for the Iranian Foreign [07:50] Ministry paid tribute [07:52] to a young Iranian soldier for [07:54] displaying courage and patriotism after [07:57] he lost both his hands while defending [07:59] the homeland during the recent [08:01] US-Israeli war of aggression. [08:04] Quote, "Homeland for Iranians is [08:07] something far beyond a mere attachment [08:08] to land and soil. It is a legacy as [08:11] ancient as a civilization stretching [08:13] back thousands of years passed down from [08:15] ancestors to their descendants. It is [08:17] precisely the civilizational quality [08:20] that in [08:21] imbued with a spiritual essence that has [08:24] caused all aggressors to ultimately [08:26] regret their savage acts." Spokes [08:29] spokesperson for the Iranian Foreign [08:30] Minister Esmaeil Baqaei said in a post [08:32] on his X account on Tuesday. "This is [08:34] how Iran has endured throughout history [08:37] and this is how it will continue to [08:39] endure proudly," he added. Baqaei also [08:41] attached a photo of the selfless [08:43] serviceman saying, quote, "A brave young [08:46] soldier who lost his hands while [08:49] defending his country before he could [08:50] even hold his newborn baby in his arms." [08:54] It's a very bizarre story. It's not [08:56] about someone who was killed. [08:59] And there hasn't been a ground invasion. [09:01] And how exactly there's no context given [09:04] other than we have this guy who lost his [09:06] hands and he was being praised by the [09:08] spokesman of the Foreign Ministry. [09:10] So, what are they doing here? [09:13] Okay, one of the great things as I've [09:14] always said about regime media is that [09:16] it's not free press. Everything is [09:18] planted and and carefully chosen for [09:20] messaging purposes. So, what exactly are [09:22] they doing? [09:24] So, [09:27] wait. Okay. [09:29] So, let's go back to Karbala because [09:31] this relates to Karbala as well. At the [09:32] Karbala battle [09:34] back in 680 Abbas ibn Ali [09:38] who was Imam Hussein's half-brother [09:41] is one of the central heroes of Karbala. [09:44] Okay, according to the Shiite tradition [09:46] he was sent to bring water to the camp. [09:49] And in the process [09:51] both of his arms were cut off in the [09:53] battle. [09:54] And and then he continued forward [09:57] without arms until he was killed. [10:00] So in Shiite memory that detail is not [10:03] incidental. Okay, it's emphasized. It's [10:05] remembered. It's reenacted in rituals. [10:08] It represents loyalty under extreme [10:11] loss, continuing, persevering even after [10:14] being physically mutilated. You lost [10:16] your hands. You've lost your arms. [10:19] And that's part of the [10:20] you know, the cultural resonance, the [10:22] emotional, spiritual resonance of [10:25] Karbala. [10:26] Okay, now obviously it's a devastating [10:29] injury. It's a sign of the cost of war, [10:31] but that's not what it means to the to [10:33] the people to the Shiites who are [10:35] reading this news item. [10:37] Right? It's it's a symbol. It's a man [10:39] who loses his hands in battle and is [10:41] still held up as a hero. [10:44] Okay, this is again it it it's it's [10:46] evoking one of the most powerful images [10:48] of Karbala. I cannot stress enough that [10:51] mentioning Karbala like Naim Qassem did [10:53] or that the or the regime does or when [10:55] we did a video about about the 40 days [10:58] after Ali Khamenei and why why the 40 [11:01] days is so important and you'll see and [11:03] I said it at the time. I predicted it, [11:04] but you're already start seeing it. The [11:06] regime when they talk about the fighting [11:08] continue in in story after story talking [11:11] about how it lasted 40 days. These are [11:13] all [11:14] resonance from [11:17] from the cultural memory of Shiites and [11:20] in this part of the world in the Middle [11:21] East with [11:23] with with groups like this [11:25] history is not ancient history. History [11:28] is is the template that you're living [11:30] every single day. [11:32] Okay? So in this news story they don't [11:35] have to state the parallel [11:37] explicitly cuz it's a Shiite audience. [11:39] It's immediately recognizable. Now you [11:41] might wonder why it's in English. [11:43] Tasnim just translates all their stories [11:45] into English. [11:46] Uh but the message here is very clear. [11:49] Physical loss, even extreme loss does [11:51] not negate victory. Remember what Naim [11:53] Qassem said about victory. It can [11:54] actually reinforce victory. [11:57] Okay, so what are they doing? They're [11:59] shaping how the public interprets the [12:02] events. They're taking real losses. [12:03] They're taking casualties. There's tons [12:05] of destruction. They're inflicting [12:07] almost no damage on the Americans and I [12:10] mean relative to what they're uh [12:12] experiencing on the Israelis either. [12:14] And it's placing all of this destruction [12:18] and humiliation into a narrative in [12:20] which those losses are not actually [12:22] defeat. [12:25] Right? And that's when I said at the [12:27] beginning of this video that this is a [12:29] change in the messaging. At the [12:30] beginning of the of the war, it was more [12:32] like denying that anything bad was [12:34] happening to them and just saying we're [12:35] going to you know, we're going to [12:37] inflict unbelievable damage. We're going [12:38] to destroy America. We're going to [12:39] destroy Israel. Now they've shifted. Now [12:42] it's we know about all the damage, but [12:44] the damage is actually not a humiliation [12:46] at all. It's actually victory. It's [12:48] actually heroism. It's actually it [12:50] actually fits right into our tradition [12:53] of heroism. [12:55] Right? Cuz they understand that they're [12:56] losing. So they're working really hard [12:59] to make sure that the population that [13:01] the that the public interprets it [13:03] properly. So they're redefining the [13:05] terms. So survival is victory. [13:08] Continuing to fight is victory. [13:10] Suffering um even severely is is you [13:14] know, but if you remain committed you so [13:17] you've still won. [13:19] And and this brings me to one more news [13:22] item that I think also sort of fits into [13:24] this. Before we get to that, please make [13:26] sure to click the link in the [13:28] description of this video uh to [13:30] subscribe to Israel 365 News and Israel [13:33] 365 Action. Israel 365 News is a daily [13:36] news update, short newsletter with [13:39] headlines of some analytical pieces and [13:41] some headlines from Israel that you're [13:43] not going to get in mainstream media uh [13:45] both in terms of the of the specific [13:47] news items that you're going to get and [13:49] also in terms of the type of analysis [13:51] and type of perspective that we bring. [13:53] Israel 365 News daily newsletter. In [13:56] this day and age you cannot rely on on [13:59] good uh [14:00] on on good accurate information from [14:02] Israel coming to you organically cuz [14:05] you're just not going to get it if [14:06] you're just scrolling through X. You [14:07] have to seek it out and at Israel 365 [14:09] News this is news from Israel with a [14:12] biblical perspective. So Israel 365 News [14:15] letter and then Israel 365 Action weekly [14:19] newsletter [14:20] which uh [14:21] you know, which will keep you up to date [14:23] on all of the different issues that we [14:24] are pursuing and give you action items [14:27] and also feel and also um [14:30] give you [14:31] um [14:32] information about upcoming webinars and [14:34] other and other goings-on with Israel [14:36] 365 Action. [14:38] Okay. [14:39] Look at this item in Tasnim also. This [14:41] is I think like on the on the main page. [14:43] I think it's like the third story. Yeah, [14:45] here it is. It's right here. Third [14:47] story. [14:48] Israel has not abandoned Lebanon, [14:50] spokesman. I love this. You have a [14:52] headline of saying we haven't abandoned [14:55] Lebanon. Now what does that tell you? [14:58] It tells you they've abandoned Lebanon [14:59] because the problem is that Iran is [15:01] going into this like ceasefire with the [15:03] Americans, this supposed ceasefire. I [15:06] made another video about that. It's not [15:07] really a ceasefire. [15:09] But they're going into this ceasefire [15:10] with the Americans into these [15:11] negotiations and meanwhile Israel's just [15:13] pummeling Hezbollah and Iran the Iranian [15:15] regime claimed at the beginning of the [15:17] ceasefire that it included Israel [15:19] stopping [15:20] to attack Lebanon. The Americans said [15:21] no, it doesn't and Israel just has [15:23] continued going about its merry way [15:26] degrading Hezbollah in Lebanon. [15:28] And meanwhile the Lebanese government [15:30] has started negotiating with Israel [15:32] about the disarming and removal of [15:33] Hezbollah and Naim Qassem gives this [15:35] speech because they're panicking about [15:37] that. So they have to save face and say [15:40] Iran has not abandoned Lebanon. Let's [15:42] read this story. [15:43] A spokesman for the Iranian Foreign [15:45] Ministry Ismail Baghaei [15:46] dismissed claims that Iran has abandoned [15:49] Lebanon during the recent Pakistani [15:50] mediated talks with the US in Islamabad. [15:53] In comments at a weekly presser on [15:54] Wednesday, Baghaei said Iran has always [15:57] praised the legitimate resistance of the [15:59] people of Lebanon [16:01] the people of Lebanon. Hezbollah is an [16:02] is Iranian. Anyway, and other elements [16:05] of the resistance and has constantly [16:07] stood by them. He noted that a ceasefire [16:10] in Lebanon was raised as one element of [16:12] the recent negotiations in Islamabad [16:14] adding that the other sides backtracking [16:16] does not mean Iran has withdrawn from [16:19] its commitments. [16:20] The spokesman noted that Iran's support [16:22] for Lebanon was pursued in Islamabad and [16:25] will continue to be pursued. And [16:27] continue to be pursued. They said we [16:29] want a ceasefire in Lebanon. The [16:30] Americans said no. [16:32] The Israelis said no. [16:34] And then what did they do in response? [16:37] Nothing. Okay, but they said that [16:39] they're going to continue to pursue it. [16:40] We haven't deserted you. Don't worry. [16:42] We're going to keep asking for a you [16:44] know, for a ceasefire in Lebanon and [16:45] that assertions that Iran has abandoned [16:47] Lebanon are entirely incorrect. [16:49] Regarding the ceasefire in Lebanon, he [16:51] said that Pakistani side had said [16:53] explicitly [16:54] that a ceasefire was part of the [16:55] negotiations and that no excuse or [16:57] justification for failing to implement [17:00] it would be acceptable. On the reports [17:02] that the United States and the Zionist [17:03] regime are playing good cop, bad cop, [17:05] Baghaei said that neither is acting as a [17:07] policeman and that both are criminals. [17:09] He also maintained that the [17:11] international focus on Iran's nuclear [17:13] program had been the product of of a [17:15] deceitful media operation. But you know, [17:18] the headline on this Iran has not [17:20] abandoned Lebanon. I don't think there's [17:21] a greater evidence that they know that [17:24] that uh you know, that they actually [17:26] have abandoned Lebanon. You know, let's [17:28] put it that way. So the upshot of all of [17:30] this [17:31] of all of the stories that I shared with [17:33] you, Naim Qassem's speech and the story [17:34] about the guy with the you know, with [17:35] the missing the hands is that [17:38] they're being humiliated. They're being [17:40] destroyed. They're losing badly. [17:42] Hezbollah they couldn't even get [17:45] uh a ceasefire in Lebanon. They couldn't [17:47] even get the Americans to get the [17:49] Israelis to stop attacking Hezbollah in [17:51] Lebanon. They couldn't even get that. [17:53] And and and they're just being [17:55] humiliated all over the place. So [17:57] they're spinning [17:58] both Hezbollah itself and Iran [18:02] are spinning everything that's happening [18:05] to try to maintain [18:08] uh uh um [18:10] a a veneer, an image that they're still [18:13] being victorious. I don't know what [18:14] works on the on their Shiite population [18:16] and what doesn't. But when we look ahead [18:18] to what's coming next where you know, [18:20] Trump is really working to get all of [18:23] his demands met. He wants capitulation. [18:26] He wants surrender. [18:28] And uh it's going to be very interesting [18:29] to see what that might look like and and [18:31] what you know, what spin he will allow. [18:35] Um and what spin the situation will [18:37] allow. [18:39] Uh but uh I I think [18:44] is panicking. Again, they've pivoted [18:46] away from tough talk about how they're [18:48] going to destroy everybody to [18:51] repackaging their defeats uh to convince [18:55] everyone that uh they haven't abandoned [18:57] Lebanon and really the and and and [18:59] really even if they're getting beaten [19:01] down, it's heroic and it's still a type [19:03] of victory. [19:04] So I think the end might be near for the [19:06] regime in Tehran. God bless.
