Transcript [00:00] Balah in Lebanon may have just committed [00:03] suicide. That's right. They decided to [00:06] join the war. We were talking about this [00:08] in leadup to the war. And in the first [00:10] day of the war [00:13] that the other Iranian proxies were [00:17] threatening that they would join the war [00:19] and they would and they would uh you [00:21] know carry out all kinds of attacks. And [00:23] I was predicting that they wouldn't do [00:24] anything. But the other day decided to [00:28] and I don't think it's going to work out [00:30] for them. But let's go through what is [00:32] happening in Lebanon. Okay, so [00:38] here we are. Says a joined war over 15 [00:41] months of Israeli aggression. Statement [00:43] came hours after Lebanon Lebanese Prime [00:46] Minister Nawaf Salam declared that the [00:49] terror group would be barred from [00:51] conducting military operations from [00:53] Lebanese territory. So that's the really [00:54] interesting part of the story is what's [00:56] happening internally in Lebanon. [00:59] Said early Tuesday, that's yesterday, [01:01] that it had joined the war against [01:02] Israel in response to what it described [01:05] as prolonged Israeli aggression against [01:07] Lebanon hours after Lebanon's prime [01:10] minister announced a ban on the group's [01:12] military activity from the country's [01:14] territory. In a statement issued [01:15] overnight, [01:17] said that for 15 months, the aggression [01:19] against Lebanon continued. You notice he [01:21] always says aggression against Lebanon. [01:23] the aggression is always only against [01:26] but he wants to paint it always wants to [01:28] paint themselves as the protectors of [01:30] Lebanon. [01:32] Um so the aggression against Lebanon [01:35] continued including killing and [01:36] destruction and that repeatedly warned [01:38] that such actions cannot continue. So [01:40] now they're saying that the reason that [01:41] they're firing missiles at Israel now [01:43] has nothing to do with Iran but it's [01:45] because of the aggression against [01:47] Lebanon. [01:48] Okay. It is not possible to justify [01:51] prolonged aggression with excuses. [01:56] Confrontation is a legitimate right and [01:58] what the Islamic resistance did was a [02:00] response to aggression. [02:02] No word about no word about Iran or [02:05] anything to do with Iran [02:07] coming out of Okay. The statement came [02:10] hours after Lebanese Prime Minister Na [02:12] Salam declared that they'd be barred [02:14] from conducting military operations. [02:16] Lebanese justice minister Adel Nasser [02:19] told Al Jazzer that the decision was [02:21] published despite objections from [02:23] ministers affiliated withah who did not [02:27] leave the cabinet meeting. Ministers [02:29] from the Shiite Amal movement voted in [02:32] favor of the decision. He said [02:35] move to launch rockets towards Israel is [02:37] a grave mistake [02:41] is a grave mistake and endangers the [02:44] people. The Lebanese government [02:46] emphasized that any military activity [02:48] byah no longer receives any type of [02:51] cover. [02:53] Okay. So they [02:57] announced that it has nothing to do with [02:58] Iran even though everyone knows that [03:00] that's the reason that they attacked [03:01] Israel and they of course invited [03:03] Israeli attacks on them. And you know [03:06] regarding this uh this barring ofah uh [03:10] this decision it's very important to [03:12] understand the the internal dynamics of [03:14] what's going on in Lebanon. So now if [03:16] Salam is very much a moderate uh who if [03:20] he was really fully in charge even [03:22] though he's the prime minister he's not [03:24] really fully in charge because you have [03:26] as part of the government and the big [03:28] issue is that military force even with [03:31] everything Israel's done to it is still [03:34] stronger than the Lebanese army because [03:36] for decades they were really the only [03:39] strong military force there and that's [03:41] why the commitments made by the Lebanese [03:44] government to disarm armizah by the end [03:46] of 2025 were never fulfilled. [03:50] But now they're getting a little bit [03:51] stronger, at least in the things they're [03:53] saying. The decision regarding a state [03:55] of war or peace lies solely with the [03:58] government. We reject any military or [04:00] security action carried out from [04:03] Lebanese territory outside the framework [04:05] of legitimate state institutions. Seems [04:07] like a pretty basic thing to say. Solom [04:11] said activity from now on must be [04:13] confined to the political sphere and [04:15] reiterated that the terror group is [04:17] obligated to hand over its weapons. [04:21] Okay. He also instructed security forces [04:24] to prevent [04:26] any attacks from Lebanese territory and [04:28] to immediately implement the decision to [04:30] concentrate weapons north of the Latani [04:33] River. Okay. Lebanese President Joseph [04:36] Aun. There's a president and a prime [04:38] minister. He echoed the prime minister's [04:40] position saying quote whoever launched [04:42] the rockets were will bear the [04:44] consequences of his actions. Now the [04:46] Lebanese president [04:49] um also led a meeting of the of the [04:53] council of ministers yesterday and this [04:57] meeting led to a decision declaring [05:00] allahel military operations illegal in [05:04] Lebanon. The decision taken by the [05:06] council of ministers yesterday [05:07] preserving the Lebanese state's sole [05:10] right to control decisions of war and [05:12] peace and banning military and security [05:15] activities outside the law is a [05:17] sovereign and final decision from which [05:20] there is no turning back. Aun told the [05:22] quintet committee made made up of [05:24] representatives of the United States, [05:25] France, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt. [05:28] According to the MTV Lebanese news site, [05:32] the Council of Ministers has entrusted [05:33] the army and security forces with [05:35] implementing the decision across all [05:37] Lebanese regions. So what this is, some [05:40] of it is bluster where they're saying [05:41] we're now finally going to take away's [05:44] weapons. They're now illegal. But really [05:46] what you're seeing is a change in tone [05:48] that the Lebanese government, the prime [05:50] minister, the president are fed up [05:52] withahbah is drawing fire from Israel [05:56] for attacking Israel in defense of Iran. [05:58] And while Leb and while sorry while is [06:01] saying we're defending Lebanon, the [06:03] prime minister and the president are [06:04] correctly saying hello the only uh the [06:07] only sovereign who can decide whether or [06:09] not to go to war is us. So this might [06:12] seem like obvious points to make, but [06:14] understand that for decades has kind of [06:18] been occupying. It's really look at it [06:22] this way. Lebanon has been occupied [06:25] territory occupied by the Iranian regime [06:27] because is technically a political party [06:30] and a militia in Lebanon, but they're [06:32] really an arm of the Iranians. They're [06:34] much more than a proxy. Hamas and the [06:38] Houthis got funding from Iran or maybe [06:42] still do. I don't know what the [06:43] situation is now with Iran under attack, [06:46] but they're funded by they're so they [06:48] our kind of proxies meaning that the [06:50] Iranian regime does not own Hamas or the [06:53] Houthis, but they own [06:56] right. When Hassan Nalla was eliminated [06:59] by Israel, the his successor Naim Kasim [07:02] was chosen in Tehran. Okay. It's [07:05] actually an arm of the Iranian [07:06] government. So, control over Lebanon and [07:10] using it as a base of operation and [07:12] becoming the de facto military there has [07:15] really been an Iranian occupation of [07:18] Lebanon. And since Israel started [07:19] hitting earlier in the war after October [07:22] 7th and degrading's capabilities and [07:24] weakening them politically and knocking [07:26] out Nasra, the Iran the the Lebanese [07:29] government has been trying to seize [07:31] control back fromah [07:34] over its own government. And this this [07:37] recent thisbollah attack on Israel in [07:40] this war just now and these reactions [07:42] you're seeing is an escalation in the [07:45] attempt to bring to heal. Meanwhile, on [07:49] the Israeli side of things, IDF expands [07:52] southern Lebanon position, but no big [07:54] invasion until Iran's situation is [07:56] calmer. Okay. The IDF on Tuesday [07:59] announced that it has slightly expanded [08:01] its security zone in South Lebanon, [08:03] adding to the five positions that it has [08:05] held there since the November 2024 [08:08] ceasefire. However, the IDF Northern [08:10] Command said that it was unlikely to [08:12] initiate a larger ground invasion into [08:14] Lebanon until the situation with Iran [08:16] was calmer, if at all. Okay. In other [08:19] words, we're threatening, but we're not [08:21] necessarily going to go full force into [08:23] there. Um, what's more, the IDF said [08:26] that will be substantially harmed by [08:28] losing access to Iranian funds, which [08:31] were almost its sole source of support [08:34] since the war started, and that the [08:35] terror group has angered its own [08:37] constituency, who have not yet received [08:40] reparations for their losses from the [08:43] 2023 2024 conflict with Israel. Okay? So [08:47] the people there are getting are getting [08:49] annoyed and the Israelis are saying, [08:50] "Well, we're expanding, but we're not [08:52] going full force yet." But then we have [08:54] this statement from Defense Minister [08:57] Israel Katz. Defense Minister Israel [08:59] Katz says Secretary General Naim Kasam [09:02] is now a target after the terror group [09:04] fired rockets and drones at Israel. [09:06] Quote, "Theisbah terror organization [09:08] will pay a heavy price for the firing [09:11] toward Israel." and Naim Kasam's [09:13] secretary general who decided on firing [09:16] under pressure from Iran from now on he [09:18] is a marked target for elimination [09:21] that's what Katz wrote on X he said that [09:23] whoever follows the path of Iran's sup [09:25] former supreme leader Ali Kamayi who was [09:28] killed by Israel on Saturday will soon [09:30] find himself together with him in the [09:32] depths of hell with all those eliminated [09:34] from the axis of evil and then uh the [09:38] IDF chief uh Ayal Zamir the chief of [09:41] staff half of the IDF. [09:44] Lieutenant General Alamir said that the [09:46] military insists that be disarmed and [09:49] will not end its new offensive against [09:51] the terror group until the threat is [09:53] removed. Our main effort is Iran. We are [09:55] operating with force and striking the [09:57] terror regime in unprecedented [09:59] cooperation with the United States. Very [10:01] nice. Afterbah opened fire. I instructed [10:05] that we act forcefully against as well. [10:07] The IDF planned and is prepared to [10:10] operate in multiple areas, multiple [10:12] arenas simultaneously. The Lebanese [10:14] government and the Lebanese army have [10:16] recently been warned many times to [10:18] disarmah. They did not act. We will end [10:21] the campaign not only with Iran harmed, [10:25] but withah also sustaining a very severe [10:29] blow. [10:30] Okay. And then what we saw today, [10:32] earlier today, is that Iran and launched [10:35] a simultaneous missile barrage on [10:37] Israel. Again, trying to be more [10:39] effective by by coming from different [10:42] directions and making it simultaneous [10:43] and having a large quantity of of of [10:47] missiles hitting Israel at the same [10:48] time. Missiles from Iran and rockets [10:50] from Lebanon fired at the same time [10:51] towards central Israel and northern [10:53] Israel set off widespread sirens as air [10:56] defenses intercepted the projectiles. No [10:59] injuries were reported. Okay. [11:02] So, um [11:06] yeah, that is [11:08] that is that. Okay. So, there so you see [11:11] that they're that they they're working [11:13] in tandem there. In a separate [11:14] development, look at this. Turkey's [11:16] defense ministry said NATO air defense [11:18] systems in the eastern Mediterranean [11:20] intercepted an Iranian ballistic missile [11:23] headed towards Turkish territory. [11:25] According to the ministry, missile [11:27] debris was located in southern Turkey, [11:29] not far from the Syrian border. No [11:32] injuries were reported. Now, I don't [11:35] know what to make of this because Turkey [11:36] has really been Iran's best friend. I [11:38] don't know if this is just uh signaling [11:40] that, you know, Turkey is not on the [11:42] Iranian side because it's just that it [11:44] was in the eastern Mediterranean and [11:46] some debris fell in Turkish territory. [11:48] Don't take this to mean that Iran fired [11:50] Turkey. Okay, we'll watch that story. [11:53] Um but here's a very interesting take. [11:55] This is from the Institute for National [11:57] Security Studies. It's a very important [11:59] think tank in Israel and [12:03] >> and what's and what you have here [12:06] is is a a little piece of analysis from [12:09] earlier today analyzing [12:12] the cracks in the partnership between [12:17] the other Shiite political party in [12:19] Lebanon, Amal. Let me give you a little [12:21] bit of background. Amal is a Shiite [12:24] political party, but they are not of [12:27] course are also Shiites. So over the [12:29] decades, Amal has been kind of [12:33] cooperating withah. They've gone along [12:35] with them and voted along with them and [12:37] almost been seen like one block, the [12:40] Shiite block. The supporters of Amal and [12:43] the supporters ofah have a lot of [12:45] overlap between them. But look at this [12:48] uh look at this report. Very [12:50] interesting. [12:52] decision to open fire on Israel and drag [12:54] Lebanon into the cycle of fighting has [12:56] created a rift between it and its [12:58] longtime partner Amal. [13:00] Okay. And it talks about how there's [13:03] been relative silence from the [13:04] leadership of Amal, but the central [13:06] indicator of strained relations between [13:08] the two movements was the participation [13:10] of Amal's ministers in the decision by [13:13] the Lebanese government, which we just [13:15] talked about, which made military and [13:18] security activity illegal. Okay. Amal's [13:22] ministers voted with the government to [13:25] makeah military activity illegal. That's [13:28] huge in Lebanese politics because it [13:31] means that the Shiite community is is [13:34] splitting or really largely moving away [13:37] from support forbah. [13:39] He goes on, the gaps between the two [13:41] Shiite movements considered sister [13:43] organizations that have operated in [13:45] close cooperation for years aren't new. [13:48] Although Amal is more moderate, it has [13:51] been drawn by its more radical sister [13:53] into extreme steps in the past. However, [13:56] for Nabi Berry, the head of Amal, the [13:58] opening of a war under the current [14:00] circumstances appears to have been [14:02] excessive given its destructive [14:04] implications for Lebanon. Now, here's [14:07] the most interesting part of this for [14:08] me. Criticism criticisms ofah's actions [14:12] within the Shiite community isn't [14:13] confined to leadership circles, but is [14:16] filtering down to broader components, [14:18] including former supporters. On social [14:22] media, critical messages have been [14:24] shared by Shiite displaced persons who [14:26] were forced to leave their villages in [14:28] southern Lebanon for the second time in [14:30] two years without having yet received [14:33] compensation for the first displacement [14:36] during the original war between Israel [14:38] and in 2324. In other words, pledged to [14:43] give compensation [14:45] uh to those who were displaced or had [14:48] their homes damaged in the war with [14:50] Israel, but they haven't. Of course, [14:52] they don't have any money or whatever [14:54] money they have, they just spend on [14:55] weapons. Particularly notable is a [14:58] statement recently published by the [14:59] Union of Tribes and Families in the [15:02] Balbeck Hermell region, an organization [15:04] representing Shiites closely associated [15:07] withah, praising the government's [15:09] decision that security activity is [15:12] illegal. It's still too early to assess [15:14] the extent of the rift between the two [15:16] Shiite movements and the implications of [15:18] the criticism ofah from within the [15:20] Shiite population. However, it's [15:22] conceivable that the erosion of standing [15:25] could be reflected in the results of [15:27] parliamentary elections which are [15:29] scheduled to take place this year [15:31] despite repeated attempts to postpone [15:34] them. Aha. [15:37] In other words, the parliamentary [15:39] cooperation that we are used to seeing [15:42] that we've seen for decades between Amal [15:44] and these two parties in the government [15:47] that are both Shiites [15:49] looks like it is falling apart. So now [15:52] it's not only that the prime minister [15:54] and the president who aren't from Shiite [15:56] parties, but are the president and the [15:58] prime minister are leading this charge [16:00] to declare's military activity illegal [16:02] and to marginalize them and ramping up [16:05] the rhetoric about disarming them even [16:06] though they haven't done that yet. [16:08] Remember the Lebanese army is not as [16:09] strong asah. But all of this pressure [16:12] coming from the non Shiite parts of the [16:15] government that is kind of expected even [16:17] though it's ramping up. But now we also [16:19] have them losing their main allies in [16:21] the parliament, their main allies [16:22] politically, Amal. And we have an [16:25] election coming up. So this could play [16:28] out ve in a very interesting way in the [16:31] elections in Lebanon. So they're getting [16:33] it from all sides. They're being [16:34] declared illegal. Everyone's against [16:36] them. They're losing Shiite support. And [16:38] that and meanwhile, the Iranian regime [16:40] is crumbling. This could be the end [16:43] forbah. [16:45] And then just to top it off, Lebanese [16:47] pop star Alyssa that one of the Middle [16:49] East most successful artists has called [16:52] a terror organization. That might not [16:53] seem like a big deal, but again, this is [16:56] much more bold and blunt than what you [16:59] would usually have seen out of a [17:00] Lebanese celebrity. Okay. And just for [17:04] good measure to end off this video while [17:05] we're checking in on proxies, the [17:07] Houthis, who said the other day that [17:09] they were going to start disrupting [17:11] shipping again, have not yet done so. [17:14] and they have not yet joined the war for [17:17] now. And we'll talk more about them in a [17:19] subsequent video. Okay, there's our [17:21] update on what's going on with we could [17:24] be seeing the end of them once and for [17:27] all. And it would be kind of their own [17:29] doing. So with everything else that is [17:31] being accomplished in this war, the end [17:33] of would be a welcome welcome [17:36] development. All right, folks. That's it [17:38] for this. Uh, please keep watching, keep [17:41] sharing, keep, you know, keep helping [17:43] grow the channel. Thank you so much. [17:45] It's amazing how how quickly the channel [17:47] has grown. It really shows me that [17:48] there's a uh that there's there are [17:51] people out there who are appreciating [17:53] these updates. And I will continue to [17:55] keep you updated on all the developments [17:57] in the Iran war. And please keep [17:59] checking out all the great content we're [18:00] putting up at Israel 365. We just [18:02] uploaded a new video there that's all [18:04] about the implications for the USChina [18:07] relationship from the war with Iran. God [18:10] bless.
