Transcript [00:00] It wasn't about the imminence of the [00:01] nuclear threat. [00:02] Uh the people have been misunderstand [00:04] that. And besides, if someone wants to [00:05] kill my family and I know that they're [00:07] making such plans, I don't wait till the [00:09] threat is imminent before I deal with [00:10] it. [00:14] Is the Iranian regime nearing its [00:16] breaking point? Their economy is [00:18] collapsing, their currency is in free [00:20] fall, and the Ayatollahs are facing [00:23] growing pressure not just from the [00:25] outside, from the US and Israel, but [00:28] from within. So, has Tehran already [00:30] crossed a point of no return? Join me [00:33] now to break it down as our good friend [00:35] Rabbi Pesach Wolicki, executive director [00:37] of Israel 365 Action. Pesach, great to [00:41] see you as always, my friend. Hey, [00:42] you've been saying that the Yeah, the [00:44] Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, or [00:46] IRGC for short, the real power brokers [00:49] in this regime, you've said they are now [00:51] in full survival mode. Pesach, what are [00:54] you saying that tells you the regime [00:56] knows it may be running out of time? [01:00] Well, first of all, uh the fact that uh [01:02] President Trump said that they're having [01:04] some negotiations, and I don't think [01:05] that he would be lying, even though the [01:08] Iranian regime is is denying it. And the [01:11] only reason they would ever have any [01:13] negotiations is if they fear that they [01:15] are on the verge of collapse, and they [01:16] need they need to negotiate in order to [01:18] survive. Because remember, let's Eric, [01:21] until the regime falls, they're not [01:23] gone. And their entire strategy is built [01:26] on prolonging this, escalating, raising [01:29] the price of oil, making it painful for [01:31] President Trump in the hope in the hope [01:33] that is now escape you know, is [01:35] fleeting, the fleeting hope that they [01:37] will be able to survive this war, and [01:39] then keep their head down till the end [01:41] of the Trump administration, and they [01:43] could and they could rebuild themselves. [01:44] So, [01:45] but what are the signs, you know, the [01:47] signs that they're that they're falling? [01:49] Also, we see all of the all of the [01:51] decapitation of layer after layer after [01:54] layer of their leadership, the strikes [01:56] on besieged forces, uh the strikes on [01:59] the IRGC. And here's a critical point [02:00] that everyone in the audience needs to [02:02] know. We're all waiting, like, when are [02:04] the people going to come out into the [02:05] streets? When are we going to see [02:07] protests that are going to bring down [02:08] the regime? Let's remember, folks, this [02:10] isn't a Netflix show where we got to get [02:11] to the next uh episode before we lose uh [02:14] before we lose interest. The best The [02:17] worst outcome that could possibly happen [02:19] in this war [02:20] would be, I mean, for the Iranian [02:21] people. The worst outcome would be them [02:23] coming into the streets too early. If [02:26] they If the people come out into the [02:28] streets, and the regime still has enough [02:30] power left, the Basij and the IRGC still [02:33] have enough power left to suppress those [02:36] riots, and to still commit acts of [02:37] violence against those protesters, and [02:39] to set the protesters back and scare [02:41] them back into their homes, if that [02:43] happens because the people came out too [02:45] early, that could spell disaster, and it [02:48] could set all the goals for regime [02:50] change back. And so long as the Israelis [02:54] continue to do what they're doing, cuz [02:55] the Israelis are focused on degrading [02:57] the regime, degrading IRGC, degrading [02:59] Basij, as long as they're doing that day [03:01] by day, and the and those forces keep [03:04] getting weaker, [03:06] the chances of protests succeeding [03:09] obviously come when the regime is at its [03:11] weakest. So, there's no reason for them [03:13] to come out into the streets until the [03:15] regime is at its absolute weakest. They [03:17] should stay in their homes until the [03:18] Israelis and Americans have finished the [03:20] job of doing their degrading, and then [03:22] they can come out to the streets when [03:23] the regime has no ability to stop them. [03:26] And what we will see when they [03:27] eventually do, mark my words, is the [03:29] Israelis will be flying drones and maybe [03:32] helicopters over the protests, [03:35] protecting them from those same those [03:38] same uh uh Basij and IRGC forces that [03:41] massacred them back in January. They'll [03:43] get air protection uh from the Israelis. [03:46] You're going to see that. It's going to [03:47] be a joint operation. The ground forces, [03:49] as it were, is going to be the Iranian [03:51] people in the streets with air cover by [03:53] the Israelis when the regime eventually [03:56] falls. Pesach, great breakdown all [03:58] around, my friend. And encouraging to [04:00] know that Israel will be helping the [04:02] Iranian people. They need that help. [04:04] Hey, about a minute left, and we'll [04:05] bring you right back after the break. [04:06] But in the next minute, breakdown for [04:08] us. Look, further, it seems to me the [04:10] regime is desperate, firing at the [04:12] Temple Mount, missiles firing at Dimona, [04:14] the nuclear reactor in Israel on [04:16] Saturday, targeting the Diego Garcia [04:18] base. It seems, Pesach, that perhaps [04:21] these are last gasps from this regime, [04:24] throwing everything but the kitchen sink [04:26] out there before, God willing, their [04:28] inevitable demise. About 40 seconds [04:30] left. [04:32] Uh absolutely. That's what we're [04:33] expecting. And even with the direct hits [04:35] that they that there've been in Israel [04:36] and all the all the concern people have, [04:38] the number of air raid sirens, the [04:41] number of rockets that are being fired [04:43] has been diminishing day by day. The [04:45] regime is in its dying moments, and it [04:48] is a wounded animal, and it's lashing [04:50] out, but it is going away. President [04:52] Trump's leadership has made a massive [04:54] difference here, no doubt. Peace through [04:56] strength in real time. We're seeing it [04:58] play out. It always works, by the way, [05:00] but is there a chance, God forbid, is [05:04] there a chance that when the dust [05:05] settles, that perhaps some elements of [05:08] the Iranian regime are still in power? [05:10] Is that possible? We'd hate to see it, [05:13] but could it happen? [05:15] Unfortunately, Eric, it's extremely [05:17] possible, especially because President [05:19] Trump, from the opening days of the war [05:21] through till a press conference he gave [05:24] just the other day, he has been touting [05:27] the what he calls the Venezuela model. [05:29] He keeps bringing it up, saying that [05:31] they they hope just he was on the [05:34] uh he was on the tarmac at Palm Beach [05:38] Airport just today. [05:39] And he said, you know, he was talking [05:41] about regime change, and he said, "Look, [05:43] things are going great in Venezuela. We [05:44] love what we have there. We hope we can [05:46] find a similar arrangement uh in in [05:49] Iran." And what does that mean, the [05:50] Venezuela model? That means decapitating [05:53] the top of the regime, but keeping the [05:56] structure of the regime and the main [05:57] bureaucrats, mobsters, and criminals [06:00] who've been running it intact. Because [06:01] look at Venezuela. You took out Maduro, [06:04] but Delcy Rodriguez, who was Maduro's [06:06] number two person, who was the, you [06:09] know, running that evil regime with him, [06:11] stayed in power, and and the people who [06:14] voted for Maria Corina Machado [06:17] democratically, and she won [06:18] overwhelmingly, she's not in the [06:20] picture. So, if we if that's what Trump [06:23] is gunning for, he's going to have a [06:25] he's it's going to be a disaster because [06:27] Iran is not Venezuela. The These are [06:30] Twelver Shiite apocalyptic [06:32] >> Yeah. uh ideologues, and Trump is [06:35] signaling that he wants that, and [06:37] there's now a report out in the New York [06:39] Post, and the Jerusalem Post also [06:40] reported it, that they're speaking to [06:42] this guy Galibaf, the speaker of the [06:44] house, who is one of the most brutal [06:46] uh he's one of the most brutal members [06:48] of the regime. He was the one who was [06:50] who who uh who made the call to kill [06:52] students to kill student protesters in [06:54] 1999. He was very much behind the [06:56] slaughter of the protesters back in [06:57] January. And if that's who the Trump [07:00] administration is talking to because [07:01] they want to keep the structure of the [07:03] regime intact [07:04] to avoid chaos. I understand why they [07:06] why they think it's a good option [07:07] because it avoids the chaos of a regime [07:09] change where the regime falls and it [07:11] devolves into chaos and internecine [07:13] internecine fighting. So, you keep the [07:15] bureaucracy intact by, you know, holding [07:18] on to it, and it keeps it keeps law and [07:20] order, so to speak, and you work with [07:22] those criminals. It's not going to work [07:24] in Iran. If he does that, the people [07:26] will not accept it, and the Israelis [07:28] probably will not accept it, and it'll [07:29] just mean a forever war. It'll mean [07:31] fighting this war down the road because [07:33] you'll keep an IGRC IRGC ideologue at at [07:38] the top in power. Yeah, and the [07:40] president has said [07:41] >> Yeah, and that's he said that's exactly [07:43] what he doesn't want. He doesn't want [07:44] American forces to return to Iran 5 [07:47] years, 10 years from now. As you would [07:48] think, again, that apocalyptic ideology, [07:51] the Iranian regime is a different beast [07:53] than, say, Venezuela, for sure. Speaking [07:56] of that, Pesach, some in the US [07:59] intelligence community, I should say [08:00] former officials, Joe Kent I think of, [08:03] somehow he was leading the National [08:05] Counterterrorism Center for the past 2 [08:07] years. He's He's out now. He resigned [08:09] last week. But they say, "Look, this was [08:11] not an imminent threat. Iran was not an [08:14] imminent threat. President Trump [08:15] shouldn't have taken action. Israel [08:17] pushed the US into this." For me, as an [08:20] American, I've been following for [08:22] decades Iran's jihad against America. [08:25] How do you see this as an Israeli? [08:28] Well, as for Joe Kent saying that Joe [08:31] Kent also tweeted a few years ago that [08:33] we should bomb Iran's nuclear and [08:34] ballistic facilities. So, I don't know [08:36] what Joe Kent personally actually [08:38] believes, but there are many voices [08:39] saying that this wasn't an imminent [08:40] threat, and it would have to be an [08:41] imminent threat. Look, the strike on [08:44] Diego Garcia, which was uh about twice [08:48] the distance away from Iran as the [08:50] Iranians claimed they could hit, and way [08:52] further than Israel. That was a missile [08:55] that flew uh that could fly 4,000 km. [08:58] Um [08:59] Far beyond the distance of Israel. You [09:00] could hit London from Iran with a [09:02] missile like that. And that itself [09:04] showed that this threat was was really [09:06] imminent. You know, and also people [09:08] misunderstand imminent threat. Everyone [09:09] focuses on the nuclear. Marco Rubio, [09:11] Secretary of State, made this very clear [09:13] in the opening days of the war. It [09:14] wasn't about how close they were to a [09:16] nuclear weapon. The ballistic missiles [09:19] that they were developing at an [09:21] increasing rate, they had upped it from [09:23] 30 to 50 a month to over 100 a month [09:26] just in the just since the 12-day war, [09:28] and that would provide them a protection [09:31] umbrella [09:32] to shield them and from attack under [09:36] which under that umbrella they could [09:38] then advance their nuclear program. It [09:40] wasn't about the imminence of the [09:41] nuclear threat. Uh the people have been [09:43] misunderstand that. And besides, if [09:45] someone wants to kill my family, and I [09:47] know that they're making such plans, I [09:48] don't wait till the threat is imminent [09:50] before I deal with it. [09:51] >> That's right. [09:51] Yeah. What a great point, Pesach, as [09:53] always, my friend. Look, things are [09:55] coming to a head, and I think in the [09:57] next few days, perhaps, certainly weeks, [10:00] we'll get a resolution here. We can only [10:02] pray, as you said, when the dust [10:03] settles, that this regime is in the ash [10:05] heap of history, where it belongs. We're [10:08] praying for the Iranian people. I know [10:09] you are, too. And what you shared about [10:11] Israel, perhaps helping the Iranian [10:13] people, was very, very encouraging. [10:15] Great analysis, breakdown, as always, my [10:16] good friend, Rabbi Pesach Wolicki. [10:18] Folks, check him out at the Israel 365 [10:21] Action Fund, X, Instagram, across social [10:23] media. pesach.org. God bless, my friend. [10:25] We'll see you again soon. Keep up the [10:26] great work.
