Transcript [00:00] So, we hear all about the IRGC, the [00:02] Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and [00:05] the Besiege, and that they're getting [00:07] struck right now. And the question is [00:10] also out there, who's actually running [00:12] Iran these days. These are some of the [00:14] things that we're going to deal with in [00:16] this video. But before we do that, I [00:18] just want to mention yet again, Israel [00:20] 365news.com. comments and news website [00:23] based in Israel uh from from of course [00:27] Israel 365 the wonderful organization [00:29] that I uh that I work for. I lead Israel [00:32] 365 action. If you go to Israel 365 [00:34] news, you get headlines and you get an [00:37] you get analysis pieces right here. 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So, first of all, some news, some [01:32] headlines relating to what's going on on [01:35] the ground. Thran drone attacks wipe out [01:37] dozens of Iranian regime enforcers [01:39] within minutes. This is from last night. [01:42] State affiliated farce reports 10 dead [01:44] in mysterious overnight assault, but [01:47] other sources say toll far higher with [01:50] scores of Basie and security personnel [01:52] killed at checkpoints across Thran. [01:55] Iranian officials blame Mossad and [01:57] monarchists for the attack. Iranian [02:00] media reported unusual Israeli drone [02:02] attack an unusual Israeli drone attack [02:04] in Thran on Wednesday night with [02:07] semiofficial forest news agencies saying [02:09] that they struck checkpoints at several [02:11] locations. So there were IRGC and [02:13] besiege security checkpoints that were [02:15] being attacked by drones. [02:18] They said that explosions and clashes [02:19] were reported at multiple points in [02:21] Thran and that about 10 security [02:23] personnel were were killed including [02:26] members of Iran security forces and the [02:29] Basie, a militia linked to the Islamic [02:32] Revolutionary Guard Corps. We'll learn [02:34] more about who they are in a minute. Um, [02:36] other sources said the toll among regime [02:38] operatives was much higher, claiming [02:40] dozens of besiege members being killed [02:42] within minutes. within minutes. Fearing [02:46] unrest, the regime's baze forces set up [02:48] checkpoints on major on major streets to [02:50] restrict civilian movement. This is how [02:53] they're getting into position to prevent [02:56] protests. So, they've been setting up [02:57] checkpoints all over all over Thran. So, [02:59] what did the Israelis do? They went in [03:01] last night and they they carried out [03:03] drone strikes on those checkpoints. And [03:06] remember, Iran no longer has air [03:08] defenses. I talked about this in an [03:10] earlier video that now that there's no [03:11] there's no more air defenses, the [03:14] Israelis can just put drones over the [03:16] area, hover around, and basically have [03:19] their way with the Iranians. And this [03:21] also means that looking down range at [03:24] possible demonstrations in the streets, [03:27] it means that the Israelis are going to [03:30] be able to defend the protesters in real [03:32] time. They're going to be able to have [03:33] drones there taking out IRGC or besieged [03:37] people who are firing on protesters. [03:40] Okay, so this all happened last night. [03:43] And we should also remember that Prime [03:46] Minister uh Netanyahu addressed the [03:49] Iranian public and said we I mentioned [03:51] this in a video yesterday and he said [03:52] quote in the coming days we will create [03:54] the conditions for you the Iranian [03:57] people to take your fate into your own [03:59] hands. Okay, Nathaniel said that and he [04:02] said that right before these strikes. [04:06] Okay, so that's what we're seeing right [04:08] now in in Iran. And then the Jerusalem [04:11] Post reported that strike target that [04:13] there were strikes that targeted Iran's [04:15] bank SEPA data center in Thran disrupts [04:20] military IRGC salary payments. Look at [04:23] this. The data center of Iran's [04:26] state-run bank SEPA was hit by a strike [04:28] in Thran on Wednesday. The disruption at [04:31] the bank, which is largely responsible [04:33] for paying the salaries of Iran's [04:36] military and the IRGC, [04:40] right? So they they struck the data [04:42] center of the bank. They struck the [04:44] bank. They destroyed the data center. [04:47] And the strike occurred early in the [04:49] day. [04:51] Um, the attack occurred while the bank [04:52] was processoring salary payments for the [04:54] military. On Tuesday, both bank SEPA and [04:57] another state-run institution had [04:59] services disrupted [05:01] uh, what's that? [05:04] They both had services disrupted [05:07] um, in an apparent cyber attack. The [05:09] disruptions continued on Wednesday with [05:11] online banking inoperable [05:14] and then of course there was this actual [05:15] attack on the bank. Iranian foreign [05:17] minister Abbasari addressed the attack [05:19] saying this time a branch of my [05:20] country's oldest bank was bombed while [05:22] full while full employees while full of [05:24] employees. They were laboring to ensure [05:26] Iranians have food on the table ahead of [05:29] our new year. We have the Iranian new [05:31] year coming. We're Persians, right? And [05:33] it's our country's oldest bank. You [05:36] know, trying to appeal to the sense of [05:38] of Persian identity. Yeah. Yeah. Sure. [05:41] Ensuring that that Iranian citizens can [05:44] put food on the table. He also promised [05:45] that Iran's armed armed forces will [05:47] extract retribution for this. Okay. And [05:52] there were also media outlets including [05:53] Iran International also reported [05:55] explosions across several neighborhoods [05:57] in Tehran. Okay. So Tehran, the capital [06:00] city and there you have so the IRGC. So [06:03] you have IRGC and besiege getting [06:06] attacked at their checkpoints and then [06:08] we also have their bank and their data [06:11] center that's that was in the process of [06:14] processing salaries and that's where [06:16] that's how they how they have money flow [06:18] out to the hundreds of thousands of [06:20] people in their apparatus. Uh this was [06:22] all bombed. Okay. And then we have this [06:25] story. IDF says it destroyed most of [06:27] main assets of Iran's internal security [06:29] forces and besiege in western Ilam [06:32] province. The western Ilam province [06:34] that's where the Kurds are. The Israeli [06:36] military says it has destroyed most of [06:38] the central assets of Iran's internal [06:40] security forces and bases paramilitary [06:43] force in the Ilam province in western [06:45] Iran. Okay. In the past week, the IDF [06:48] says it ramped up strikes on the on the [06:50] IRG on the internal security forces and [06:53] besiege in several areas of Iran. [06:56] Okay. The military says that Iran's [06:58] internal security forces and bases in [07:00] the Ilam province carried out numerous [07:03] terror plans and among other things [07:05] conducted brutal repression during the [07:07] protests of December and January. [07:10] Okay, but that's Ilam province is where [07:12] the Kurds are. So here you have what [07:14] what the Israelis um I mentioned this a [07:17] few days ago that the war was moving [07:18] into a new phase. The initial phase of [07:20] the war was ballistic missile stores, [07:23] ballistic missile launchers. They're [07:25] still cleaning that up and nuclear [07:28] sites, right? It was very much like [07:30] military sites and then it became um [07:33] bases, military bases, IRGC bases. And [07:36] now what they're doing, they're they're [07:39] going first of all, we have this region. [07:41] We have the Kurdish region and the [07:43] Israelis have been hitting numerous [07:45] bases out there and now they've [07:46] destroyed all of the besiege and and or [07:49] most of the main assets in that region, [07:51] opening it up, clearing it out more for [07:55] for a possible ground incursion by [07:57] Kurds. Okay, you have that going on, but [07:59] you also have them bombing the banking [08:01] system of the IRGC and taking out these [08:04] security checkpoints that were being set [08:06] up to prevent popular uprising. You can [08:09] see where the Israelis are taking this. [08:11] Okay? And and it's emphasizing here, [08:12] this is the Israelis doing this. The [08:14] Americans are not involved in this piece [08:16] of what the Israelis are doing. Okay? [08:18] Now, Alazer, [08:20] and by the way, it's interesting. I had [08:22] to put on a VPN to get to this because [08:24] Alrazer is is blocked in Israel. Has [08:26] Trump misunderstood Iran's IRGC and the [08:29] besieged forces? This is an old piece [08:31] from the beginning from March 1st, from [08:33] the first day of second day of the war, [08:35] right from the very beginning. and [08:37] Alazer ran this piece, but I I wanted to [08:39] go back to it now because now that we're [08:41] talking about the IRGC, I wanted to uh [08:44] educate us a little bit more about who [08:47] they are. Okay, so this article is is [08:49] look at the title. Has Trump [08:51] misunderstood them? And what it's [08:53] referring to is that Trump early on said [08:56] he made a statement on the first day of [08:57] the war to the members of the IRGC, the [09:00] armed forces, and all the police. I say [09:02] tonight that you must lay down your [09:03] weapons and have complete immunity or in [09:05] the alternative face certain death. So [09:08] lay down your arms, you'll be treated [09:09] fairly with total immunity or you will [09:11] face certain death. And the article then [09:14] goes down. It gives a little bit of a [09:15] background of who who the IRGC is that [09:17] they were built to protect the Ayatollah [09:19] after after the revolution in 1979 [09:22] because the army had worked for the sha [09:25] and they wanted a a loyalist group. This [09:27] is very common in totalitarian regimes [09:29] that you have like a a militia that is [09:32] more loyal to the regime separate from [09:34] the army kind of like the um the SS in [09:37] Germany which also had its own air force [09:39] and you know and it was was kind of like [09:41] the the regime army and they worked [09:43] together in good times but it it [09:45] protects the regime it's main that's its [09:48] main purpose and it's composed of ground [09:50] naval and air forces meaning the RGC is [09:52] a full army ground naval and air forces [09:55] troops and includes an internal internal [09:57] security paramilitary militia known as [09:59] besiege. Okay, great. Uh then it talks [10:02] about a little bit about what they do, [10:04] but the main thing I wanted to get to is [10:08] is this [10:10] here. What is the besiege? [10:15] [clears throat] Because you keep hearing [10:16] that word in the news these days, [10:17] besiege. Also founded by Kmeni in 1979. [10:20] The besiege is a volunteer paramilitary [10:23] force that falls under the IRGC and [10:26] enlists civilians motivated by their [10:29] devotion to the country, meaning to the [10:31] regime. Though some analysts say young [10:34] men also sign up for privileges and [10:36] economic betterment. The group [10:37] considered to be deeply ideological, [10:40] often made up of young working-class [10:42] men. They are estimated 450,000 [10:46] personnel in the group. Understand this. [10:48] The IRGC is only about 180,000. The [10:52] Besiege is 450,000 personnel according [10:55] to the Institute for Study of War, [10:58] though that also includes members who [10:59] manage the group's communications and [11:01] socioultural programs. Okay? So, I've [11:03] talked about the IRGC being about [11:05] 180,000 plus their families. It's more [11:07] like if you add in the Bas, it's closer [11:10] to over 600,000 plus their families. [11:13] We're talking about millions of people [11:14] who are part of the regime. Okay? And [11:16] that's why I keep saying taking down the [11:18] regime is not a simple matter. I'm still [11:20] not so I'm still not as optimistic as [11:22] many people are. Besiege personnel are [11:25] often deployed [11:27] on the front lines of protest and have [11:29] played a large role in countering [11:30] uprisings. They're the ones who gunned [11:32] down protesters. [11:34] Okay. During the Iran Iraq war, they [11:36] were on they did they were encouraged to [11:38] undertake martyrdom missions. They would [11:41] clear minefields in human waves. they [11:43] they would commit suicide to clear [11:45] minefields. They're crazy, right? That's [11:47] what you think. So then they say, "Will [11:49] they listen to Trump?" The short answer [11:51] seems to be no. [11:53] Okay, let me back up here and explain [11:55] something. Okay, this is so critical. I [11:58] I did an interview earlier today with [12:01] Dr. Morai Kheddar, who's a Middle East [12:03] expert in Israel, and people disagree [12:05] with him about some things about Iran, [12:07] but there's there was this one point [12:08] that we talked about extensively. you [12:10] might want to go over to the Israel 365 [12:12] News YouTube channel. It's linked in the [12:14] description of of every one of the [12:16] videos on my channel. And I always tell [12:18] you to go over there. It's not just [12:19] because I'm promoting Israel 365 news. I [12:21] put up different types of content there, [12:23] deeper dive analysis content that's up [12:26] there. So, I put up a video there today. [12:29] I think it was uploaded today. Sent it [12:31] to my editor earlier. Uh there's a video [12:33] out there today um which is an interview [12:35] with Dr. Morai Kheddar. And one of the [12:38] main points of the interview, we talk [12:40] about the difference between Shiite and [12:42] Sunni Islam theologically or we might [12:46] even say esquetologically in terms of [12:48] how they think about the end times, how [12:49] they think about their faith. And of [12:52] course, everyone you read the news, you [12:54] hear about IRGC, besiege, all these [12:55] terms, Sunni, Shiite, we know they hate [12:57] each other, but we drilled down into how [12:59] they think differently. And I I'll just [13:02] cut to the chase here, but go watch the [13:04] interview. Shiites, [13:07] their belief, their whole religious [13:09] goal, their whole the whole goal of [13:10] their faith system is to bring the world [13:14] to this apocalyptic end [13:17] where as a result of all the chaos and [13:19] apo and and this apocalyptic turmoil [13:22] that in the world the the the Madi who [13:27] is this hidden imam who is hidden away [13:31] for centuries is going to emerge. He's [13:33] like a Messiah figure who's going to [13:35] come out and emerge to save the day. And [13:38] that might be part of why um they've [13:42] been able to play with this hidden imam [13:45] thing with Mushtabi, [13:48] who might not even be alive, who they [13:49] elected as the next Supreme Leader, but [13:51] no one has seen him since day one of the [13:53] war. They might be positioning him to be [13:55] like he's like the hidden imam. But [13:57] whatever, that's a side point. But [13:59] Shiites actually believe that the way [14:01] that they bring the perfect world is by [14:05] is by bringing the world to a point of [14:08] total chaos and apocalypse. And that's [14:11] what summons the hidden what's called [14:14] the madi. That that's the messiah [14:17] figure. It summons the madi. He comes [14:19] and saves the world from the uh from the [14:21] chaos and Islam reigns supreme. It's a [14:24] very different esquetology, very [14:26] different theology than Sunni Islam. So [14:29] much so that that Dr. Khedar pointed out [14:30] that according to many experts, they [14:32] aren't even really the same religion, [14:34] Sunni and Shiite Islam. They're using [14:35] the same Quran. Even even that's not the [14:37] same. There's some chapters in the [14:39] Shiite Quran that aren't in the Sunni [14:40] Quran. But the Shiites [14:44] want to ferment chaos and also they [14:46] place a much higher value on martyrdom. [14:49] That's why Ali Kamay was never going to [14:52] run away to Russia or go into hiding. He [14:55] was always going to die a martyr's [14:56] death. It's part of Shiite Islam. Okay, [14:59] he would have to die a m I mean it's [15:01] they're much more into martyrdom. I mean [15:03] all Muslims are into martyrdom, but [15:04] they're much more into martyrdom and [15:06] they're especially into this idea of [15:08] bringing chaos and that and and Dr. [15:10] Kadar used that to explain a lot of [15:11] their behavior in this war. You have to [15:14] understand that these are people who are [15:16] willing to walk across a minefield to [15:17] blow themselves up in service of the [15:20] ultimate the ultimate end. [15:23] So they want chaos. They want [15:26] escalation. They want to summon the [15:28] apocalypse. Sunnis are different. And [15:30] Sunnis are much more into sort of [15:32] traditional jihad, we might call it, or [15:33] civilizational jihad and going and [15:35] conquering territory and winning people [15:37] over and running for office and and and [15:39] and and killing infidels because in they [15:42] want, you know, that's what they're [15:43] into. Whereas for Shiites, they also [15:46] want to kill infidels, but it's much [15:47] more about about bringing bringing this [15:50] apocalyptic uh chaos and and end to the [15:53] world. So that's why it doesn't bother [15:55] them to be involved in the drug [15:56] trafficking trade, for example. is just [15:58] bringing more chaos and turmoil to the [16:00] world. Okay, that's this is just like [16:02] very briefly getting into the mind of [16:05] these Shiites. So if we get back to this [16:08] uh this Al Jazzer piece here, [16:12] right? [16:16] If you have a supreme leader here, here [16:17] they're quoting this uh former deputy [16:20] assistant secretary of defense for [16:21] Middle East, Michael Mulroy told Al [16:23] Jazzer in Iran. If you have a supreme [16:26] leader, there are multiple different [16:28] power centers in the clerical and the [16:30] military, the IRGC, the intelligence [16:31] service, they are unlikely to comply [16:34] with pre with what President Trump has [16:35] done. Everything that they are saying [16:37] right now, including recent statements [16:39] from Ali Rejani, is that they intend to [16:42] escalate this and essentially turn the [16:45] region into an allout war, causing as [16:48] much pain not only to the United States, [16:51] but also the Gulf countries in the [16:52] region. This was on the first day of the [16:54] war. He said this, and it's exactly what [16:56] has happened because they want to [16:58] escalate. They want things to get crazy. [17:01] They want the ideology and loyalty to [17:03] the Islamic Revolution and the Supreme [17:05] Leader are key ideological tenants of [17:07] the IRGC. [17:10] Okay. Um, [17:15] right. The IRGC is is is still very [17:18] likely in control despite a turbulent [17:20] year for Iran. Uh, and [17:24] yeah. Okay. So, that's that piece. And [17:26] we're also seeing uh this article in [17:28] Iran International. Desertions and [17:30] shortages and army IRGC rifts strain [17:33] Iran's military. This is talking about [17:35] the Iranian army, which is not the IRGC. [17:38] Iran's armed forces are facing acute [17:40] supply shortages, rising desertions, and [17:43] deepening friction between the regular [17:45] army and the IRGC. [17:48] Among the most serious allegations are [17:50] reports that wounded army personnel have [17:52] been denied assistance by the IRGC. [17:57] Some frontline units are operating with [17:59] minimal ammunition, food, and drinking [18:01] water. Okay, this is all good news for [18:02] our side because it leads to more [18:04] desertions, and that's what we want to [18:05] see. [18:07] Um, so they're denying them medical [18:09] report. Uh, they're denying them medical [18:11] support, and there's all these frontline [18:13] shortages. Okay, so we have that and [18:16] then we have this other article from [18:18] Iran International. Iran's unseen new [18:21] leader, and that's a key word because [18:23] the unseen Imam is the MI. Iran's unseen [18:26] new leader issues first message in [18:28] writing. And this is kind of ridiculous. [18:30] They came out with a message from him in [18:31] writing. I'm not even going to bother [18:33] reading it, but this is, you know, so I [18:35] I believe that their pos that they're [18:38] that the people running the show, we'll [18:39] get into who's running the show in just [18:41] a moment in just a couple minutes now [18:43] that we've laid the groundwork [18:44] understanding the IRGC and a bit about [18:46] their ideology, who they are. [18:50] um who's actually running the show if [18:53] this if Moshaba [18:56] the who's been elected as the successor [18:58] has not been seen in public and now he [19:00] issues his first statement as a written [19:03] statement. So, [19:05] let me um there's this piece a very [19:08] interesting article that I found. I'm [19:09] not going to read the whole thing [19:10] because unfortunately it's beyond the [19:12] scope of the leng of uh it's too long [19:14] for this video. Uh and it's on something [19:17] called GIS reports online. Okay. And [19:20] this is a very interesting website. Uh [19:23] gives u intelligence reports and and it [19:26] its main audience is supposed to be [19:28] business people and political leaders. [19:29] Very interesting website. and they ran [19:31] an article today called revolutionary [19:34] guards take the reigns in Iran and in it [19:39] they go through some of the background [19:40] of how the IRGC leadership has kind of [19:42] taken over and also what the prospects [19:45] are for the future. So just in brief at [19:47] the very beginning it says here after [19:48] the death of Iran's supreme leader [19:50] management of the country and its war [19:52] was officially transferred as per the [19:55] the country's constitution to a trio the [19:57] president poses and two senior clerics [20:00] but in practical terms yet in practical [20:03] terms controlled past diehard command of [20:06] the IRGC [20:08] accompanied by two senior political [20:10] figures Ali Rani you probably heard that [20:13] name and Muhammad Bakir Khalib [20:16] both are retired generals of the IRGC. [20:21] Okay. Now, why is that so important that [20:24] they're retired generals of the IRGC? [20:28] So, so to understand how the Iranian [20:30] regime works today, you have to [20:32] understand the relationship between Ali [20:34] Kamay, the dead Ayatollah, and the IRGC. [20:38] Over the past decade, that relationship [20:40] has slowly reshaped the entire Iranian [20:43] system. So if you go back to 2013, [20:47] at that point Iran was under severe [20:49] international pressure over its nuclear [20:51] program. Okay, that's Obama years, [20:53] right? The economy was suffering badly [20:56] from sanctions and the regime was [20:58] worried about its own survival. So Kam [21:00] at the time made a strategic decision [21:02] that he would allowed he would go into [21:04] negotiations with the West over the [21:06] nuclear issue. Now, if you think about [21:09] Shia, what I just told you about Shiite [21:11] ideology, you never want to negotiate [21:14] because you just want to be a hardliner [21:15] and and and go for maximum chaos, [21:19] right? Sunni Muslims, it's different [21:20] because they're more into like the kind [21:22] of stealth jihad and the actual changing [21:26] of the of people on this world and [21:27] conquering territory. [21:30] But for Shiites, if you're just trying [21:31] to bring the apocalypse, why would you [21:33] ever negotiate? So he knew that this [21:36] would anger the hardliners in his system [21:38] especially the IRGC folks. So he [21:41] justified it. Kamay justified [21:43] negotiating with the Americans in [21:45] ideological terms. He told the IRGC [21:48] leadership that this was an example of [21:50] what he called heroic flexibility. The [21:53] phrase heroic flexibility comes from [21:56] Shiite history from back when the second [22:00] Shiite imam Hassan, this is back in the [22:02] seventh century, temporarily gave up [22:05] power to save the Shiite community from [22:08] destruction. So Kami invoked that phrase [22:11] at the time in 2013 [22:14] and argued that he could do the same [22:16] thing now, make a tactical concession in [22:19] order to preserve the Islamic Republic. [22:21] This is different than the doctrine of [22:22] tea that you might have heard about, [22:24] which is about deceiving enemies when [22:26] you're weak. This is not about [22:27] deception. It's about a tactical [22:29] concession to to preserve the the the [22:34] Shiite community to fight later on. [22:36] Okay, that idea became a turning point [22:39] in Iranian political culture. It was [22:41] talked about a lot and it provided the [22:43] ideological cover for the nuclear [22:46] negotiations and ultimately the deal [22:47] that was signed in 2015. [22:51] But the deeper story is that Kamaya was [22:54] was always balancing these different [22:56] pressures. On one side was the need to [22:59] keep the regime alive economically and [23:01] politically and that's what led him to [23:02] these negotiations. On the other side [23:05] were the IRGC guys that were [23:08] increasingly powerful and extremely [23:11] ideological [23:12] and were uncomfortable with [23:15] compromising. Okay. Over the years that [23:17] followed, since 2013, since 2015, the [23:21] guards, the IRGC expanded their [23:23] influence in almost every part of the [23:25] system. So veterans of that organization [23:28] filled positions in the parliament and [23:29] government ministries and the security [23:31] services. And you see these top advisers [23:33] who are now really running the country [23:34] are former IRGC commanders. And they're [23:37] the most powerful people in the country [23:38] right now. The IRGC became uh a [23:42] political class inside the regime. [23:46] And meanwhile, Iran continued building [23:49] its axis of resistance, right? Hamas, [23:52] Tahutis, all that. And uh [23:57] and and and the regional situation in [24:00] the years since the Iran deal, since the [24:02] Obama Iran deal started escalating. [24:03] Okay, let's fast forward to 2024. Okay. [24:07] In April of 2024, so we're about what, [24:10] like six, seven months, uh, after [24:13] October 7th, seven months or so, Israel, [24:16] you might remember this, Israel uh, hit [24:18] the Iranian consulate in Damascus [24:22] and killed a senior IRGC commander, a [24:26] coup's force commander. And Israeli [24:28] intelligence assumed that Iran would be [24:30] very cautious in its response because [24:33] Israel had killed Iranian officers [24:36] before with in outside of Iran without [24:40] triggering major escalations. They they [24:42] had done targeted strikes before, but [24:44] this time actually responded. Okay. The [24:47] attack pushed the regime toward a more [24:51] confrontational posture at the time. [24:53] Now, at the same time as that was going [24:55] on, there were internal pressures [24:56] building in Iran. The the pressures that [24:58] ultimately led to where we are now, and [25:01] that's the the economic conditions that [25:02] were absolutely collapsing. They were [25:04] deteriorating. There were already [25:06] protests spreading then, public anger [25:08] about the economic situation. [25:12] The IRGC with the besiege were still the [25:15] enforcers and they were meant and their [25:18] job was to suppress disscent and [25:20] maintain order. [25:22] So [25:24] by the mid by the mid 2020s at this [25:26] point 2024 2025 they basically ran all [25:30] the institutions. The IRGC was running [25:32] all the institutions in the country. [25:34] Remember they were originally founded [25:36] just to be the guards you know the group [25:38] that protected the regime kind of a just [25:40] a military group but at this point [25:42] they're controlling pretty much all the [25:43] government institutions. The top [25:45] advisers are IRGC guys. They dominated [25:48] everything security, foreign policy, [25:49] large parts of the economy. All this is [25:52] happening as Kami is really old, is [25:55] getting older and older and incre and [25:57] and sick and increasingly absent from [26:00] public life. So if you put all that [26:01] together, [26:03] he wasn't really running the show [26:04] anymore for two reasons. Number one, he [26:06] was being pushed aside by these IRGC [26:08] tough guys who had taken control and he [26:12] was more pragmatic. They were still a [26:13] little bitter about the Iran negoti [26:16] about the nuclear deal and they and they [26:18] were taking more power and meanwhile [26:20] he's getting sick and he's not so [26:21] involved in public life anymore and [26:22] they're really running the show. So [26:26] everyone in the system understood that [26:27] when he was gone the balance between the [26:31] clerical establishment the Ayatollas and [26:34] the IRGC could change dramatically and [26:37] that's what happened since the beginning [26:39] of this war. Okay. Okay, so companies [26:41] get K gets killed on the first day of [26:45] the war along with several senior [26:46] figures in the national security [26:49] apparatus and the IRGC. But with Kame [26:52] gone, with the supreme leader gone, [26:53] there's now a power vacuum. So the IRGC [26:57] guys who were already the most powerful [26:58] people in the country, they stood up and [27:01] took control. [27:03] Okay, that's the story of of of the last [27:07] decade or so. Like it's a system. It [27:09] once revolved more around the supreme [27:11] leader and the clerical establishment [27:14] gradually shifting towards these this [27:17] military revolutionary group the IRGC [27:20] who are taking more and more power for [27:22] themselves and now with with Kame Egon [27:26] they've basically seized seized power in [27:30] Iran. Okay. Now, a lot of that is in [27:31] this long article. And then at the end [27:34] of the article, it's a long article. At [27:37] the end of the article, they it then [27:38] goes through scenarios of what could [27:40] possibly happen next. Okay. And it says [27:43] the most likely scenario according to [27:46] them is mutual exhaustion and ceasefire. [27:49] US maximum goals not met, regime [27:52] survives. That's what they say is the [27:53] most likely uh outcome. We none of us [27:56] want that outcome, but it could be, and [27:58] I've been warning about it, what I call [28:00] like kind of fake regime change. The [28:02] regime sort of survives. The US says [28:05] that they've accomplished their goals [28:06] and they go home, right? That's the [28:10] that's the first that's what they say is [28:12] the most likely scenario. And I I sadly [28:15] say I I agree. It depends how much the [28:17] Israelis can create more and more [28:19] conditions that don't even allow the [28:21] regime to survive at all. But it's not [28:22] so simple. [28:24] uh what's somewhat what they call [28:26] somewhat likely is a prolonged war of [28:28] attrition where the regime is so [28:30] weakened that even if the Americans stop [28:31] and the war is officially over there's [28:34] going to be there's going to be [28:36] shortages of water food gasoline uh [28:39] electricity and the IRGC doesn't mind [28:42] killing millions of their own citizens [28:44] to survive and meanwhile there's [28:46] civilians rising up and there's there's [28:49] sanctions [28:51] uh you know the Gulf states are are are [28:53] putting the squeeze on them and that [28:54] really the regime is so weak and [28:55] battered that there's just this it's [28:57] like a war of attrition and until it [28:59] until you know as it it just [29:02] deteriorates and deteriorates. Um but [29:05] meanwhile the IRGC is still in control. [29:08] Um and then you have the possibility of [29:10] a mass popular uprising [29:13] uh which they call unlikely [29:15] or a fissure at the top and a pragmatic [29:19] way out of the crisis. [29:21] um which is also I guess a possibility [29:25] but not so likely. Okay, so there there [29:28] you have that. Now to put all this into [29:30] into more context even um Pez Shakyan [29:35] the president you might remember that a [29:37] few days ago he apologized to the Arab [29:40] states for the attacks by Iran on those [29:42] Arab states and then he w and then [29:45] immediately after that the IRGC [29:47] basically said shut your mouth and they [29:50] started firing and they continued firing [29:52] on those Arab states. So Peshan is a [29:55] moderate he's not an IRGC guy. When I [29:57] say moderate, he's not really a [29:58] moderate. Um, he's more moderate than [30:00] the He's not an IRGC guy. He's what's [30:03] called a reformer. He was brought in by [30:05] Kamaya after Raisi was killed in the [30:08] helicopter crash back in 2024. He was [30:11] brought in with with the promise that he [30:14] would pay more attention to the economy [30:16] and as a way of showing that they're [30:19] being less radical and less militant. [30:22] Okay? Because he's a reformer. [30:25] the IRGC guys have no use for him. [30:29] So when he comes out, he wants to make [30:31] peace. They basically said, "No, no, no, [30:33] no, no." And they continued and they [30:35] continued the war. And so here, look at [30:37] this interesting headline. This is from [30:39] today. Peshan speaks with leaders of [30:41] Russia and Pakistan outlined steps to [30:43] end USIsrael war in Iran. And there's [30:45] headlines like this every day. He's [30:47] apologizing. He's looking for [30:49] negotiations. [30:51] He's looking for a for an offramp. And [30:53] meanwhile, the IRGC, this is also from [30:55] today, IRGC statement, enemy crimes will [30:58] be answered at the same level, full [31:01] militancy. We're going full force. So, [31:03] if you're hearing mixed messages coming [31:05] out of Iran of we're going full force, [31:08] we're going to go to the end. We're [31:09] going to, you know, rah rah rah tough [31:11] talk. And at the same time, you see [31:13] Peshyan or others maybe talking more [31:16] about being more consiliatory and [31:18] looking for peace. It's because there is [31:20] a power struggle going on right now. [31:24] The people running the show as we speak [31:26] are IRGC. [31:29] They're the ones who wanted MJaba. [31:32] So they wanted MTA because first of all, [31:35] he's a low-level cleric, which means [31:38] that they don't have to kind of bow to [31:41] higher level clerics that they might [31:43] have to listen to who might who might be [31:44] more moderate than him. He's a real [31:46] extremist and he's also maybe dead or [31:49] injured or out of the picture. they can [31:51] elect him and then he goes into hiding [31:54] and they're basically running the show. [31:56] So what what what what all this means is [31:58] that if the regime survives and it still [32:01] could survive if the regime survives, [32:04] it's going to become a military state [32:08] run by these IRGC guys. That's what we [32:11] might end up seeing or more of a [32:13] military state than it's been. [32:16] Okay? because the IRGC is leadership is [32:19] still running it. And again, the sheer [32:21] size of the besiege and the IRGC, we're [32:24] talking about 600,000 fighting men plus [32:27] all of the other apparatus, millions. [32:29] There's millions of people here. This is [32:31] not removing a regime and then the the [32:35] people all rise up. There are hundreds [32:38] of thousands or over a million of these [32:39] armed ideologues, these Shiites who want [32:43] apocalypse and martyrdom who are going [32:45] to fight to the end. It's not. This [32:48] thing is far from over and it's far from [32:50] a done deal. It's far from a from a [32:53] foregone conclusion that the regime is [32:55] actually going to fall. I know this was [32:57] a long video, but uh I I hope it was [32:59] worth it uh because I I think this was [33:02] this was very important that we talk [33:03] about these things because we're hearing [33:05] all this stuff in the media. Besiege [33:06] IRGC [33:08] and uh I hope I sorted some stuff out [33:10] and gave you some valuable information [33:11] here. Please keep watching, please keep [33:14] sharing and telling everyone about the [33:15] channel. Thank you again for helping [33:17] grow it. Really appreciate it. God [33:19] bless. Stay safe.
