Transcript [00:00] Hey everybody, it is Wednesday, January [00:03] 28th, 2026. Major update about what's [00:06] going on with Iran. Obviously, the big [00:07] question on everyone's mind is when and [00:09] if the US is going to attack. We've [00:12] talked about the massive military assets [00:15] that the United States is accumulating [00:16] in the region around Iran. The movement [00:19] of the major US aircraft carrier, the [00:21] Abraham Lincoln, [00:23] uh, right up near Iran, seeming like [00:27] preparing for an attack. And at the same [00:29] time, the Iranians have been openly [00:32] saying that if the US attacks them, they [00:35] will retaliate by attacking Israel. So, [00:38] let's take a look now at President uh [00:41] I'm sorry, let's take a look now at [00:42] Prime Minister Netanyahu's response in a [00:45] press conference just yesterday about [00:48] what will happen if the Iranians attack [00:52] the Israelis. Have a look at this. [00:56] for [01:22] it is [01:27] Wow. There you have it. If Iran makes [01:30] the mistake of attacking Israel, they [01:33] will get a response that they cannot [01:35] even imagine. Prime Minister Netanyahu's [01:37] words. So, let's put this into the [01:39] context of what's going on here. [01:41] Because Iran has made this threat that [01:43] they'll attack Israel if the US attacks. [01:46] This means that the decision to attack [01:48] Iran by the United States is obviously [01:51] also an Israeli issue and there has to [01:53] be a lot of working together on on what [01:56] to do because Israelis are not just [01:58] going to sit here and be sitting ducks [02:00] and let the Iranians unleash their [02:02] ballistic missiles at us. And that's why [02:04] at the very beginning of that statement, [02:06] Prime Minister Netanyahu said, "Look, [02:07] Trump's going to do what he's going to [02:08] do. We're gonna do what we're going to [02:10] do." Meaning, we have our own decision- [02:12] making to make for our own national [02:13] security. Does that mean something [02:15] preemptive? Who knows what that means? [02:17] But he he then of course added that they [02:20] will have a response they could not even [02:22] imagine. So in the context of the of the [02:26] thinking the strategic thinking of [02:28] what's going on in the minds of the [02:29] mullers in Tehran, think of it this way. [02:32] During the 12-day war, well, between [02:35] Israel and Iran back in June, on the [02:37] first day of it, the Israelis opened up [02:40] a an air corridor, meaning they opened [02:43] up the skies and gained control of the [02:46] airspace over the entire region and of [02:48] course over Iran. They had already [02:50] destroyed the Syrian air defenses uh uh [02:54] during, you know, earlier after the [02:56] Assad regime fell. The Iraq doesn't [02:58] really have air defenses. And then there [03:01] was the Iranian air defenses that they [03:02] destroyed early on. And ever since then, [03:05] the Israelis have maintained that air [03:07] superiority over the entire region. So [03:10] Israel kind of has freedom of operation. [03:12] So if the Iranians were were to choose [03:15] to do anything against Israel, Israel [03:16] has no problem. It's not just an empty [03:19] threat. Israel has no problem going in [03:21] there and carrying out precision air [03:23] strikes that could be absolutely [03:25] devastating to the Iranians. So why [03:26] would they do it? Why would the Iranians [03:29] want to drag Israel into the conflict? [03:32] No, they know Israel's capabilities. [03:34] They suffered those capabilities uh last [03:36] June. Why would they drag Israel into [03:39] the conflict? Well, they would only do [03:40] it uh if they really feel that the [03:44] regime is about to fall. They would also [03:47] it it's also a good move in the Muslim [03:50] world because there's so much Jew hatred [03:52] in the Muslim world. by attacking [03:53] Israel, they could garner more support [03:56] for the regime from Muslim nations. [03:59] Okay, that's that would be part of that [04:00] would be part of their calculation. But [04:02] basically, attacking Israel would be a [04:04] desperation move which would signal that [04:06] the regime knows that it's about to [04:07] collapse because if if they just want to [04:10] kind of stave off the the American [04:13] attacks and kind of weather the storm [04:15] and remain intact as a regime, they're [04:18] not going to attack Israel. It does not [04:19] serve their purposes. So that's what to [04:21] watch for in that area. Now in terms of [04:24] the you know the calculus of the United [04:27] States and Israel visa v Iran. So [04:30] Ambassador Huckabe [04:32] uh the US ambassador to Israel yesterday [04:35] speaking at a at a major conference that [04:38] took place in Jerusalem had this to say [04:40] about the USIsrael relationship visav [04:43] Iran. Have a look. [04:45] >> Israel does more for the United States [04:47] than most Americans will ever [04:48] understand. [04:50] And one thing we must remind people, [04:52] every enemy of Israel is an enemy of the [04:55] United States. You indeed are the [04:58] appetizer, but we have always been the [05:01] entree. For 47 years, Iran has always, [05:04] in the same sentence, said, "Death to [05:07] Israel and death to America." It is the [05:10] American flag they put on their [05:11] buildings and cause their people to [05:13] march over and stomp on going in to let [05:16] America know how much they hate us. [05:18] Well, we need to be very clear that our [05:22] partnership with Israel is to our [05:23] benefit. Our abandonment of Israel, our [05:27] acting like we don't want to be a [05:28] partner to Israel is to our ever loving [05:31] detriment. And it is only opening a door [05:34] to these crazed people, not the people [05:37] themselves, but the leadership, the [05:39] regime of Iran, that for 47 years has [05:43] taunted, tortured, and done more to [05:46] sponsor the horrific things that have [05:49] killed more Americans than any other [05:50] group on the entire planet. Okay, this [05:54] is a very important statement especially [05:55] because of some of the talk on the [05:58] American right that you see about Iran [06:00] where you have people like Tucker [06:01] Carlson saying, "Well, the Iranians have [06:03] never killed any Americans." Which is [06:04] ridiculous. There was the Marine [06:06] barracks bombing done by the Iranians [06:08] back in the 1980s that killed over 250 [06:11] US servicemen. But that's just here in [06:13] the Middle East. And there's other [06:14] examples of Iranianbacked militias [06:17] attacking Americans. But more [06:19] importantly, you look at what happened [06:21] in Venezuela and how how President Trump [06:24] is trying to shut down the drug trade [06:26] and the human trafficking trade that is [06:28] killing Americans, right? All the [06:30] fentinel pouring into the United States. [06:31] What a lot of Americans don't realize is [06:33] that the Venezuelan Maduro and before [06:36] him Chavez regime was basically one one [06:40] regime with the Iranian regime. They're [06:42] very closely interconnected, not just [06:45] like an alliance between two countries, [06:47] but much more than that. that their [06:48] financial systems were intertwined. Um, [06:51] when Venezuela needed more oil and [06:53] couldn't and couldn't uh, you know, and [06:54] wasn't producing enough and had and uh, [06:56] and had a bit of an energy crisis a few [06:58] years ago, the Iranians shipped over [07:00] sent over a few of their tankers. There [07:02] are Iranian operatives embedded in the [07:05] Venezuelan government. The leaders in [07:08] the Iranian regime own homes in [07:11] Venezuela that they've always seen as a [07:13] safe haven if they ever had to run when [07:14] the regime would fall. lots of [07:16] cooperation between Venezuela and and uh [07:19] and Iran and operates in Venezuela. They [07:22] have training bases there and their drug [07:25] trafficking trade which starts in the [07:26] Middle East but goes all the way to the [07:28] the United States is the source of the [07:30] drugs that come into the United States [07:32] and kill Americans. So there's you can't [07:35] un you can't uh disentangle American [07:39] interests fighting the drug trade and [07:41] fighting the drugs coming across the [07:43] southern border from the enemy in Iran. [07:46] It's all one thing. So Ambassador [07:48] Huckabe is absolutely right that that [07:51] the that Iran is a direct threat to [07:54] Americans and kills Americans. And from [07:57] the Iranians perspective, America and [07:59] Israel is one enemy. And that's why it [08:01] makes sense to them that if America [08:02] attacks them, they're going to retaliate [08:04] by attacking Israel. They see us as the [08:05] same. So despite what all the naysayers [08:08] say from a real politic standpoint, from [08:11] a strategic standpoint, one has to view [08:14] dealing with Iran in the context of the [08:17] USIsrael relationship. There's no way [08:19] around that. Now that said, [08:22] u another another uh issue that Prime [08:24] Minister Netanyahu raised in his press [08:26] conference was the issue of Saudi [08:28] Arabia. And the Saudis have been [08:30] pivoting towards Qatar and Turkey. And [08:33] this is after years of of taking greater [08:37] and greater steps towards reconciliation [08:39] with Israel. In recent months, the [08:41] Saudis have completely turned on the [08:43] Abraham Accords countries that they used [08:45] to be closely aligned with. They've [08:46] turned on the UAE. They're now in open [08:49] hostility with the UAE. And they're [08:51] talking about how they don't want any [08:53] normalization with Israel. And they're [08:54] getting cozier with the Iranians, with [08:56] the Qataris, with the Turks. So the [08:58] Saudis seem to be changing sides. We [09:00] have to stop thinking about the Saudis [09:02] as a as a more moderate uh country. And [09:05] Prime Minister Netanyahu took a swipe at [09:07] them [09:09] where he said in his press conference, [09:11] he said, "We expect from anybody who [09:13] wants normalization or peace with us [09:15] that they not participate in efforts [09:17] steered by forces or ideologies that [09:19] want the opposite of peace." and he's [09:21] talking about that Saudi uh that [09:25] increasing Saudi partnership with the [09:27] Qataris and the Turks. [09:31] So, you know, Saudi Arabia seems to be [09:33] making some bad choices. Now, why [09:35] another reason they're doing that, and [09:36] this is why it's connected to this Iran [09:38] update, is that the Saudis do not want [09:41] the Iranian regime to fall. Now, that [09:43] might seem strange to you, because the [09:45] Saudis and Iranians have a history of [09:46] terrible relations. They even have had [09:48] open warfare with each other over the [09:51] years. So why would the Saudis be trying [09:53] to protect the Iranian regime from [09:54] falling? I made a video about this on [09:56] the Israel 365 YouTube channel last [09:58] week. It might be worthwhile going and [09:59] watching it. But just to summarize the [10:01] key points, the Saudis need the Iranian [10:05] regime to continue to exist because if [10:07] the Iranian regime falls and Iran [10:09] becomes a pro-western democratic uh [10:12] democratic state, the Saudis lose [10:15] leverage and they lose importance in the [10:17] region. they actually need to be the [10:20] power player that they've always been [10:21] where sometimes they're on the Chinese [10:23] side, sometimes they're on the American [10:25] side and the Americans need them because [10:27] they're kind of moderate and they have a [10:29] lot of oil and they have this massive [10:31] land mass in terms of global shipping [10:33] and uh and you know so the Saudis have [10:36] this very this strategic importance but [10:38] if the Iranian regime falls the Iranian [10:41] land mass is so large and is the only [10:44] rival large nation in the Middle East [10:46] and it's also massive oil producing [10:48] nation then that and if Iran becomes a a [10:52] western ally this Saudi Arabia becomes [10:57] less important if if Iran becomes [10:59] democratic than the largest country in [11:01] the region becoming a democracy and [11:03] rejecting Islam that could spill over [11:06] into Saudi Arabia which has a very [11:07] oppressed population. Saudi Arabia is [11:09] not a free country and the last thing [11:11] the Saudis want is a kind of Arab Spring [11:14] where where people want democracy [11:16] because democracy is uh is is uh has [11:20] taken over a neighboring country and uh [11:23] they certainly don't want a pro-western [11:26] free democratic Iran keeping oil prices [11:29] low and disrupting their only source of [11:32] income because Saudi Arabia doesn't [11:33] really have an economy beyond oil. All [11:36] of this provides context for u for a [11:39] statement made by Resa Palvi, the crown [11:42] prince of Iran, who is talking about [11:45] what a postregime Iran could look like. [11:48] Keep in mind the impact that it could [11:49] have, the negative impact it could have [11:52] on the Saudi Arabian Islamic regime if [11:55] this were to happen. So here's Reza [11:58] Palvi just the other day. To all of our [12:01] friends around the world, under the yoke [12:04] of the Islamic Republic, Iran is [12:07] identified in your minds with terrorism, [12:10] extremism, and poverty. [12:14] The real Iran is a different Iran, a [12:18] beautiful, peaceloving, and flourishing [12:21] Iran. [12:23] It is the Iran that existed before the [12:25] Islamic Republic and it is the Iran that [12:28] will rise again from its ashes the day [12:31] the Islamic Republic falls. [12:35] So let me be clear about how a free Iran [12:38] will act towards its neighbors and the [12:40] world after the fall of this regime. [12:45] In security and foreign policy, Iran's [12:48] nuclear military program will end. [12:52] Support for terrorist groups will seize [12:55] immediately. [12:57] A free Iran will work with regional and [12:59] global partners to confront terrorism, [13:03] organized crime, drug trafficking, and [13:07] extremist Islamism. [13:10] Iran will act as a friend and a [13:12] stabilizing force in the region and it [13:16] will be a responsible partner in global [13:20] security. [13:22] In diplomacy, [13:23] relations with the United States will be [13:26] normalized and our friendship with [13:28] America and her people will be restored. [13:32] The state of Israel will be recognized [13:35] immediately. [13:37] We will pursue the expansion of the [13:39] Abraham Accords into the Cyrus Accords, [13:42] bringing together a free Iran, Israel, [13:46] and the Arab world. [13:48] A new chapter will begin grounded in [13:51] mutual recognition, sovereignty, and [13:55] national interest. [13:58] In energy, Iran holds some of the [14:01] largest oil and gas reserves in the [14:03] world. A free Iran will become a [14:06] reliable energy supplier to the free [14:09] world. [14:11] Policym will be transparent. [14:14] Iran's actions will be responsible. [14:17] Prices will be predictable [14:21] in transparency and governance. So think [14:24] about the points that that Resa Palvi [14:27] just made in light of everything that I [14:30] was just saying. keeping pri oil prices [14:33] low, having a pro-western democracy, [14:37] having a a free people that is no longer [14:40] Islamic suddenly makes them so much more [14:43] attractive because the land mass of Iran [14:45] and the population size of Iran, they [14:47] are the biggest country in the region. [14:49] If you add up Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, [14:52] Syria, Israel all together and Saudi [14:55] Arabia, the population does not come [14:57] close to the Iranian population. the [14:59] land mass. Saudi Arabia's got a big land [15:02] mass. Those other countries altogether [15:03] are not equal the size of Iran. If Iran [15:06] becomes a pro-western democracy, it [15:08] undermines the importance, the strategic [15:11] value of Saudi Arabia goes down to [15:14] almost zero because the West doesn't [15:17] need them anymore. You have this [15:18] pro-western massive oil producing [15:21] democracy that is a reliable ally in the [15:23] region. Why should they bother playing [15:25] these games with Saudi Arabia? Saudi [15:27] Arabia is constantly switching sides and [15:29] the fact that that uh you know that the [15:32] Americans and the west needs a reliable [15:34] ally in you know in you know governing a [15:36] large oil producing uh country in the [15:39] region is so such a necessity for the [15:41] west. So Saudi Arabia has all this [15:43] leverage they lose all that leverage [15:45] immediately if the Iranian regime falls. [15:47] So that's why Saudi Arabia is now [15:49] aligning itself with those forces that [15:51] are trying to preserve the Iranian [15:53] regime and and are pivoting against the [15:56] West. They're making a huge mistake [15:58] because if the Iranian regime does fall [16:01] and everything gets realigned in the [16:02] Middle East with Israel's rising power, [16:04] the Saudi Arabian the Saudi uh kingdom [16:07] might end up on the wrong side of the [16:11] entire Middle East. So this is a a [16:14] situation very much worth watching. It's [16:15] a sidebar to the whole question of the [16:17] Iranian regime falling is the impact it [16:19] has on Saudi Arabia. But it's important [16:21] to understand it so that we can properly [16:24] interpret the behavior and the [16:25] statements coming out of the out of the [16:29] Saudi Islamic kingdom down there in [16:32] Riyad. All right, folks. That's it for [16:34] the update today. 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