Transcript [00:00] Hey everyone, very emotional day here in [00:02] Israel. As you have no doubt heard, Ran [00:04] Guilli, the final hostage of all the [00:07] hostages alive and dead who were being [00:09] held in Gaza, came home. A war hero, [00:12] someone who fought to the last bullet. [00:14] He himself killed 14 terrorists. And he [00:18] was shot multiple times and kept [00:20] fighting. He's a true true hero. From [00:22] October 7th, he finally came home. That [00:24] saga is over. And it raises the obvious [00:26] question about what is next. So, here's [00:29] a clip from Reserve Lieutenant Colonel [00:32] Jonathan Conrius, former IDF English [00:35] language spokesperson and now a senior [00:39] fellow at the Foundation for the Defense [00:41] of Democracies. He discusses what is [00:43] next and I have a lot to say about what [00:45] he had to say. So, after this clip, we [00:48] will talk about it. Here's first [00:50] Lieutenant Colonel Jonathan Kenriquez. [00:53] Welcome into our conversation rather [00:55] lieutenant colonel reserves Jonathan [00:56] Krikus former international spokesperson [00:58] for the IDF senior fellow at the [01:00] foundation for defense of democracies. [01:01] Thank you very much uh Lieutenant [01:03] Colonel Krikitz for your time. So I want [01:06] us to begin not with the headline nor [01:07] with what is uh to come. Can you imagine [01:10] you can what what the soldiers on the [01:13] ground who's been looking for day and [01:16] night felt when the message came in? [01:20] >> Yes. Shalom. Thanks for having me. I can [01:24] imagine what they felt. I don't want to [01:27] imagine what they and their friends had [01:31] to go through until they found the [01:33] correct body. [sighs] [01:36] >> Yes. Um an entire army looking for the [01:40] last warrior. Um as we said, uh all for [01:44] one and one for all. That's the true [01:46] Israeli uh spirit, if I may. All right. [01:49] with the lack of a better phrasing to [01:51] Colonel Krikus. What now? [01:54] >> Um, right. So, when we look ahead, so [01:57] this is if we detach ourselves [01:59] emotionally as Israelis, as people who [02:02] care about the family deeply, and I join [02:05] in the words that Jonathan said about [02:07] healing, super important. We put that [02:10] aside and look at strategic regional [02:12] business. Then I would say the [02:14] following. This now allows sadly Hamas [02:18] to claim and for the Americans and the [02:21] Qataris and the Turks to go ahead and [02:23] say let's move on to stage two because [02:26] the missing body of murder Rang Villi [02:29] was what stood in the way of that now [02:32] that he has been repatriated. I think [02:34] things will go ahead and this may be a [02:37] surprise but it isn't looking good [02:40] because at the end of the day we're [02:42] going to see a Gaza strip where Hamas [02:45] will still have weapons. Nobody is [02:48] coming to disarm Hamas and Hamas will [02:51] still remain either directly in control [02:54] of the Gaza Strip or indirectly in [02:57] control of the Gaza Strip. And that is a [02:59] far far cry from the number one and two [03:03] goals that the Israeli government set [03:05] forth to achieve which is to disarm [03:08] Hamas and to dismantle their political [03:10] control over Gaza. Those are the two key [03:12] goals that the Israeli government [03:14] decided about a week after October 7. [03:17] The third one has been implemented to [03:19] return the bodies and the hostages, but [03:22] numbers one and two are not being [03:24] implemented and it isn't looking as if [03:27] it's going to happen anytime soon. [03:29] >> So, speaking of Rafa, yes or no? Maybe. [03:33] Choose your battles, etc. Is this is [03:36] this the battle worth taking? [03:40] >> I I think you hit the nail on the head [03:42] there. Exactly. Israel is choosing its [03:43] battles and I think Israel strategically [03:47] without saying so is basically [03:49] forfeiting total victory in Gaza which [03:53] is something that the prime minister [03:54] promised and the entire political [03:56] establishment promised in order to [03:58] achieve bigger gains elsewhere. And when [04:01] I say elsewhere I'm looking northeast [04:04] towards the Islamic Republic of Iran. I [04:06] think it's clear by this stage that [04:08] Israel is not by any means achieving [04:11] what it needs to achieve in Gaza for the [04:14] short, immediate, and and um long-term [04:17] future, but hoping that by agreeing to [04:21] American dictates, recommendations, [04:24] demands, you can choose whatever word at [04:27] the end of the day hoping that bigger [04:29] and better things will happen with [04:31] regards to a much more serious and [04:33] threatening enemy, the Islamic Republic [04:35] of Iran. And I think that the state of [04:37] Israel understands and hopes that it has [04:39] a narrow once in a century opportunity [04:42] to really change the security situation [04:45] in the Middle East. And the only way of [04:47] doing so is working together with the [04:49] US. That is why the Rafa border crossing [04:52] is going to be opened. I have no doubt [04:54] about it. That is why we're going to go [04:56] to stage two. Even though nobody is [04:58] disarming Hamas, Gaza is forfeited, [05:02] hoping to achieve things with regards to [05:04] Iran. So, uh, just to note, uh, what [05:07] we're seeing on the right side of the [05:08] screen at the moment, police vehicles, [05:10] uh, the convoy, uh, bringing Ranik Villi [05:14] back home, um, for burial, uh, [05:18] inconceivable images. Um, and you've [05:20] mentioned it briefly, uh, Lieutenant [05:22] Colonel Kenrikus. We will be getting [05:24] further into this later in the [05:26] broadcast, but but using the [05:27] opportunity, we have to speak with you [05:29] at the moment. Iran, Iran, once again, [05:31] Iran, what what [05:32] >> Okay, so let's talk about that. They [05:34] move on to then talk about the Iran [05:35] situation which we will get to in later [05:37] updates about Iran. But let's talk about [05:39] what he said here. First of all, this is [05:42] as again as happy as we are that the [05:45] hostage situation, the tragic painful [05:47] hostage situation is now over. It does [05:50] now give cover to Hamas, to Qatar, to [05:54] Turkey, to all of the actors on the [05:56] other side of this to say, "Look, you [05:58] got all your hostages back. Time to move [06:00] on to phase two." And of course they're [06:03] now pressuring to open up the border, [06:04] open up the Rafa crossing to both [06:06] directions, which means that uh which [06:09] means that people are going to start [06:10] streaming across in both directions. [06:12] It's it creates a massive security [06:14] problem for Israel. Uh and the and as we [06:18] saw from the World Economic Forum from [06:20] Jared Kushner and and President Trump [06:22] and the Board of Peace, everyone wants [06:24] to now move forward to phase two. And as [06:26] Jonathan Krias said there very [06:28] accurately, this leaves Israel in a bit [06:30] of a bind because Hamas is not disarmed [06:33] and Hamas is still in control in the [06:35] Gaza Strip and it doesn't look like [06:37] they're going to be disarmed anytime [06:38] soon. Now, here's where uh I I want to I [06:42] want to add some more detail to this and [06:44] also talk about why it may not be quite [06:47] the situation that Kenrikus is saying. [06:50] Let me explain. [06:52] So, so first of all, let's go back to [06:55] Trump's actual 20point plan and take a [06:57] look at it. Okay. So, let's I think [06:59] that's the best way to analyze this is [07:00] to see the 20point plan in writing [07:03] exactly as it was written. What was [07:05] actually agreed to and talk about where [07:08] we are. Okay, let's start with that. So, [07:10] here is the 20point plan. I pulled it up [07:13] here from uh you know, you can find it [07:15] anywhere on the internet. I pulled it up [07:16] here from the BBC, but here's the exact [07:18] text. Okay, so let's start. The first [07:20] two points in the plan are just kind of [07:23] uh the overarching goal of what it is. [07:25] Gaza will be dradicalized will be a [07:28] dradicalized terror-free zone that does [07:30] not pose a threat to its neighbors. And [07:31] Gaza will be redeveloped for the benefit [07:33] of the people of Gaza. So that's the [07:34] kind of thesis statement. And then here [07:38] we get here we get to what's called [07:39] phase one. Now it doesn't say phase one, [07:41] phase two, and whatever in the document, [07:42] but you'll see how it works. So here's [07:45] phase one. If both sides agree to this [07:47] proposal, the war will immediately end. [07:49] Israeli forces will withdraw to the [07:52] agreed upon line to prepare for a [07:55] hostage release. During this time, all [07:57] military operations, including aerial [07:59] and artill and artillery bombardment, [08:02] will be suspended and battle lines will [08:05] remain frozen until conditions are met [08:07] for the complete stage withdrawal. So [08:09] what happened was Israel withdrew to an [08:11] internal perimeter which left Hamas [08:15] basically on the other side of that [08:16] perimeter in control of most of the [08:19] populated areas of the Gaza Strip. [08:22] And Israel is on is is is uh didn't [08:27] withdraw from the Gaza Strip. In fact, [08:28] it only withdrew from 47% of it. So, [08:31] Israel is in control of 53% of the Gaza [08:34] Strip on its side of what is of this [08:36] internal border that is called the [08:39] yellow line. Okay. Now, um all military [08:43] operations didn't really cease because [08:45] Kamas started violating the ceasefire. [08:46] There have been some skirmishes, but [08:48] let's go with this. Okay. So, Israel [08:49] withdrew to this internal this internal [08:52] border. Then it says within 72 hours of [08:55] Israel publicly accepting this [08:56] agreement, all hostages alive and [08:58] deceased will be returned. Well, that [08:59] took a lot more than 72 hours. It took [09:01] months. It just ended today. Once all [09:04] hostages are released, Israel will [09:05] release 250 life sentence prisoners plus [09:08] 1,700 gazins who were detained after [09:10] October 7th. Okay. Israel released those [09:13] people. [09:14] That was done early on. Okay. Then once [09:18] all hostages are returned, Kamas [09:20] members, now here's where things get [09:21] sticky. Okay. This is where the [09:24] disarmament of kamas gets mentioned. [09:26] Once all hostages are returned, kamas [09:29] members who commit to peaceful [09:31] coexistence and to decommission their [09:34] weapons will be given amnesty. Members [09:37] of kamas who wish to leave Gaza will be [09:40] provided safe passage to receiving [09:42] countries. Okay, what does that mean? [09:45] That means that if you have kamas guys [09:47] who are willing to give up their [09:48] weapons, we're not they'll be given [09:50] amnesty. They won't be tried in court. [09:53] They won't be arrested. They won't be [09:54] killed. There's it's unclear what that [09:56] means. And it also says that kamas [09:58] members are free to leave. Meaning the [10:01] assumption of this is that kamas will be [10:05] disarmed. It will no longer be there. It [10:09] doesn't say anywhere who does this [10:11] disarming. Who takes the weapons from [10:13] them? This is the big problem. Let's [10:15] keep going. Upon acceptance of this [10:17] agreement, full aid will immediately [10:18] send into Gaza. So this is about [10:20] humanitarian aid. And this already began [10:22] from the very beginning of the 20point [10:24] plan. they began [10:26] uh bringing in aid and that's where it [10:28] says upon acceptance of the agreement. [10:30] So it's still part of phase one. This is [10:31] all still part of phase one. Hostages [10:33] are returned. Humanitarian aid resumes, [10:37] right? Uh Israel withdraws to an [10:40] internal perimeter to allow for the [10:42] hostage and prisoner exchange. And also [10:45] kamas members who are willing to give up [10:48] their weapons, no one did. So we can [10:51] still say well no one wanted to. No one [10:54] committed to peaceful coexistence and [10:56] decommissioned their weapons. No one [10:57] left. So we're this is all still phase [11:00] one. [11:01] And then it talks about continuing the [11:03] distribution of aid. That's also part of [11:05] phase one. That's eight. And now here is [11:09] where everything all the fun begins. [11:11] Gaza will be governed under the [11:13] temporary transitional governance of a [11:16] technocratic apolitical Palestinian [11:18] committee responsible for delivering the [11:21] day-to-day running of public services [11:23] and municipalities for the people of [11:24] Gaza. Now, this is what they've been [11:26] talking about if you've been following [11:28] the news that they created the Board of [11:30] Peace and the Gaza governance group and [11:33] they appointed this guy who was a former [11:36] technocrat from the Palestinian [11:38] Authority to run the thing. His name, [11:40] his last name is Sha, right? They [11:43] appointed this guy to run it. That's [11:44] this, that's what they, when everyone [11:46] talks about phase two, they're talking [11:47] about this. They're talking about nine [11:50] in the 20point plan that that Gaza is [11:53] governed under a temporary transitional [11:56] governments of technocratic apolitical [11:58] Palestinian committee. Okay? And it's [12:00] supposed to deliver daily public [12:02] services made up of qualified [12:05] Palestinian and international experts [12:07] with oversight and supervision by a new [12:09] international transitional body, the [12:11] Board of Peace, which will be headed and [12:13] chaired by President Trump with other [12:15] members and heads of states to be [12:17] announced. That's what this is. Meaning [12:19] what we're currently in, what they've [12:20] currently been announcing, Jared [12:22] Kushner, World Economic Forum, Board of [12:24] Peace, this whole phase two, when you [12:27] hear that in the news, it's talking [12:28] about this. Now, what's the problem with [12:30] all this? Because if we keep going down [12:32] in the proposal [12:34] and then goes on to talk about the [12:35] economic development plan to re-energize [12:38] Gaza and build a beautiful city and it's [12:42] going to be awesome and it's going to [12:44] create jobs and opportunities and hopes [12:46] for the better future. Very nice. That's [12:48] that whole thing that Jared Kushner was [12:50] talking about at the World Economic [12:51] Forum about this beautiful new Gaza. [12:53] Great. That's the plan. Talks about an [12:56] economic zone that'll be established. No [12:58] one will be forced to leave. Very nice. [13:00] But now look at clause 13. [13:04] Kamas and other factions agree to not [13:07] have any role in the governance of Gaza [13:10] directly, indirectly, indirectly, or in [13:12] any form. All military terror and [13:15] offensive infrastructure, including [13:17] tunnels and weapons productions [13:19] facilities, will be destroyed and not [13:22] rebuilt. Who's supposed to destroy them? [13:25] Doesn't say. Keep going. There there [13:27] will be a process of demilitarization. [13:31] Okay. Who's supposed to do this? What [13:34] does it mean there will be a process? [13:36] How is that? Who? How? Right. Under the [13:40] supervision of independent monitors [13:42] which will include [13:44] placing weapons permanently beyond use [13:47] by who? Who's placing the weapons? Who's [13:49] taking them from Kamas? Doesn't say. [13:51] Through an agreed upon process of [13:54] decommissioning the weapons. really [13:56] agreed upon by who? And supported by [13:58] internationally funded buyback and [14:01] reintegration program. What? You're [14:02] going to buy the weapons from Kas? [14:03] They're going to sell them to you. Not [14:05] happening. And this is all supposed to [14:07] be verified by the independent monitors. [14:10] Okay. Very nice. This is where things [14:14] get sticky. Number 14. A guarantee will [14:17] be provided by regional partners to [14:19] ensure that kamas and the factions comp [14:23] meaning the other terrorist groups [14:24] Islamic jihad etc comply with their [14:26] obligations. [14:28] Okay, who's supposed to do this? It [14:29] doesn't say. And then it talks about the [14:32] international stabilization force which [14:34] is supposed to be this new security [14:35] force in the Gaza Strip. And then and it [14:39] and it talks about how they're going to [14:40] work together with the Israelis. Very [14:42] nice. And then the withdrawal of the [14:46] IDF. Remember, at this point in the [14:48] plan, the IDF is still holding their [14:51] position, controlling more than half of [14:53] Gaza. There's not been any mention of a [14:55] withdrawal. You get down to 16 and it [14:58] says that Israel is supposed to then [15:00] start withdrawing. [15:02] The IDF will withdraw based on [15:04] standards, milestones, and time frames [15:07] linked to demilitarization [15:11] agreed upon by the IDF, the [15:13] international stabilization force, the [15:15] guaranurs, and the United States. [15:18] Ah, so this is what I think is going to [15:23] happen next. And I should say what I [15:25] hope will happen next. Okay. And this is [15:27] um I don't know if I'm disagreeing with [15:29] Jonathan Kenrikas or just adding to what [15:31] he said. [15:32] I believe that what has to happen now [15:35] for Israel to have any security and any [15:38] and any chance of success in actually [15:40] getting rid of Hamas is that Israel must [15:44] resist all pressure to withdraw its [15:48] troops even one inch. Okay? And this [15:50] because this is what we're going to see. [15:51] I'm making a prediction now and I'm 100% [15:54] sure of this prediction. Okay? The [15:55] prediction is that in the coming days, [15:57] now that the last body was returned, [15:59] besides the opening of the Rafa crossing [16:01] to Egypt, we are now going to see ramped [16:04] up pressure on Israel to withdraw its [16:08] troops, to begin withdrawing. You're [16:09] going to have the the Arab side is going [16:11] to keep saying, "Oh, Israel has to [16:12] withdraw. Israel has to withdraw." Watch [16:14] for it. You're going to hear it. It's [16:15] going to happen. And remember, when [16:17] you're talking to people about this [16:18] issue, remember the Trump 20point plan. [16:21] Remember what it says. Withdrawal of the [16:23] IDF happens way later after Hamas is [16:27] gone, after demilitarization has [16:29] happened and only when demilitarization [16:32] is proven and is secured and is verified [16:36] and the Isra and in conjunction with the [16:38] Israelis, only at that later date does [16:42] Israel withdraw once you have the [16:44] international stabilization force taking [16:46] control. Right? Let's take a look at [16:48] that one last time. That last point [16:50] there about the international [16:51] stabilization force. Israel will will [16:54] not occupi occupy or annex Gaza as the [16:56] ISF establishes control and stability. [17:00] The IDF will withdraw based on [17:02] standards milestones milestones time [17:05] frames linked to demilitarization. That [17:07] is the key. The key again for Israel not [17:11] to end up in a situation where we once [17:13] again have this terrorist state on our [17:16] border threatening us. That we can [17:18] actually get rid of Hamas. that there's [17:20] actually a chance to destroy them once [17:22] and for all, to remove their weapons. [17:24] Israel needs to stand firm and not [17:27] withdraw its troops. Wait for it. The [17:29] pressure is on its way. Folks, again, a [17:32] very emotional day in Israel. We should [17:34] all be grateful uh to the IDF and to and [17:38] to God uh that we now have Ron Guile's [17:41] body back, but at the same time, keep an [17:43] eye on the international pressure that [17:46] is sure to come. Uh folks, if you're [17:48] enjoying these videos, please make sure [17:49] to like and subscribe and all that [17:50] stuff. And as I always say, go over to [17:53] the Israel 365 channel and see the [17:55] videos that we're putting out there as [17:56] well.
