Transcript [00:00] protests in Iran are seriously [00:02] escalating over these last couple of [00:04] days. Really over the course of the last [00:06] 24 48 hours, they've really ramped up. [00:08] And when this whole thing started about [00:11] uh a little less than two weeks ago, [00:13] President Trump put out a truth social [00:14] post, put out a tweet saying that he [00:17] would punish the Iranian regime if they [00:19] started firing on protesters. And the [00:22] other day on Hugh Hewitt's program, he [00:25] reiterated this threat. Have a look. [00:30] whole 47year tyranny. [00:32] >> Well, I don't want to say it, but I will [00:34] tell you they're not doing well, as you [00:36] know, probably better than anybody. [00:37] They're doing very poorly. And I have [00:40] let them know that if they start killing [00:42] people, which they tend to do during [00:44] their riots. They have lots of riots. Uh [00:46] if they do it, we're going to hit them [00:48] very hard. [00:49] >> Now, dozens have been killed. I know you [00:51] don't do red lines, but have you [00:52] communicated to them what that limit of [00:56] your patience is? [00:58] Well, some have been killed by, you [01:00] know, problems of crowd control and [01:02] other things. We're watching it very [01:04] closely. The crowds are so large, [01:06] there's been a stampede. There's been [01:08] three stampedes and people have been [01:10] killed in that. And I'm not sure I can [01:13] necessarily hold somebody responsible [01:14] for that. But they know and they've been [01:17] told very strongly, even more strongly [01:19] than I'm speaking to you right now, that [01:21] if they do that, they're going to have [01:23] to pay hell. [01:24] >> Do you have a message for the people of [01:25] Iran, President Trump? All I can say is [01:28] you should you should feel strongly [01:30] about freedom. There's nothing like [01:32] freedom. Uh you're brave people. It's a [01:34] shame what's happened to your country. [01:36] Your country was a a great country. I [01:38] remember years ago when I was a young [01:40] real estate developer. Friends of mine [01:43] went to Iran and they did great. They [01:45] built buildings in Iran. They they're [01:47] still up barely by the way, but they're [01:50] still up. I see pictures of them, [01:52] apartment houses, and they did very well [01:54] in Iran. Iran. They and I they've passed [01:57] away. They were very successful [01:58] developers. They were great people, [02:00] mostly New York developers, but they [02:02] went to Iran and they built some pretty [02:04] good jobs in Iran. And uh I remember [02:07] they they were saying the people are [02:08] great. The whole place was great. It was [02:10] a tremendous uh market. [02:13] >> Yeah. So, here's President Trump kind of [02:16] hedging and saying that of course we're [02:18] going to punish the regime if they start [02:20] killing people. But then when Hugh Hu [02:22] had asked him about the dozens of people [02:23] who've been killed, he said, "Well, a [02:25] lot of them have been killed by crowd [02:26] control because of course he he doesn't [02:29] necessarily want to step in and start [02:31] having American military action against [02:33] the Iranian regime, but the threat is [02:35] still hanging over their heads and he is [02:37] supporting the people." And this is a [02:38] huge change from the way Barack Obama [02:40] behaved when there were protests in the [02:42] streets of Iran during during his time [02:45] in office and, you know, when he kind of [02:48] said, "Oh, we'll just let things play [02:49] out." and uh we're not going to [02:51] intervene in the uh in Iranian domestic [02:53] issues which of course let the [02:55] protesters hang out to dry. Now he also [02:58] pointed out there that the Iranian [03:00] economy is a great place to do business [03:02] that he had friends who built buildings [03:03] there and the Iranian people are great [03:05] people. I just want to drill down on [03:06] this point a little bit. People sitting [03:08] far away in the west, you look over here [03:10] in the Middle East and you kind of think [03:11] of everyone here being the same, all [03:13] these Muslim countries. Iran is not an [03:16] Arab country. They're Persians. They're [03:17] different culturally. They're actually [03:19] not that Islamic at all. In fact, Iran [03:22] reportedly has the lowest percentage of [03:24] mosque attendance of any Islamic [03:26] country. It's actually a pretty secular, [03:28] fairly educated population. Think back [03:31] to before the Iranian revolution. Before [03:33] 1979, there were regular flights between [03:36] Tel Aviv and Tehran. Again, a very [03:39] pro-western, very secular population. [03:41] So, this isn't a situation like Libya or [03:44] Iraq or Syria or, you know, one of [03:46] these, you know, kind of chaotic Arab [03:49] states that if the regime falls, you're [03:51] going to have all these, you know, [03:52] Islamic militias firing at each other. [03:54] You don't have that. You don't have that [03:56] in Iran. It's actually a pretty [03:59] pro-western society, and that could mean [04:02] that the fall of the Iranian regime [04:04] could lead to an ally of the West. We'll [04:06] talk about that more in a little bit, [04:07] but I want to show you what's actually [04:08] going on on the ground because things [04:10] are getting pretty hairy. So, here, take [04:14] a look. Video shows crowds in northern [04:17] Iran's uh in northern Iran's Rasht [04:20] neighborhood, and they are attacking a [04:23] besiege [04:24] uh a besiege headquarters. Besiege is [04:26] the police that are meant to put down [04:28] the riot. And here you have the people [04:30] attacking the besiege. And that's this [04:33] is a type of violence that we didn't see [04:36] in protests in [cheering] past past [04:39] goarounds over the last few decades. So [04:41] things are definitely getting more [04:42] violent. We're also seeing much bigger [04:44] numbers. This is a crowd shot from the [04:48] protests from from yesterday and you see [04:51] how massive the crowds are getting. Now [04:53] this is significant because in the first [04:54] week and a half of this, the big flaw in [04:57] these protests was that they weren't [04:58] that big. They weren't as big as the [05:00] protest that we saw a few years ago when [05:03] there was this girl who was killed in [05:05] custody for not wearing her hijab. And [05:07] there were big protests then. We didn't [05:09] see crowds of that size yet until [05:12] yesterday. It's also significant because [05:15] these crowds came out after a call by [05:18] Reza Palavi, the the crown prince of [05:21] Iran, uh who was in exile and he called [05:24] for massive crowds to come out. Another [05:27] uh another development that we're seeing [05:29] that we didn't see in earlier rounds of [05:31] protests is the death of IRGC personnel. [05:35] The protesters are actually killing [05:36] people from the regime and that's [05:38] something that we never saw in the past [05:40] and that really marks a significant [05:42] change. Now what we haven't seen yet is [05:45] mass defections from the IRGC and we [05:48] still would want to see that to know [05:50] that the regime is actually falling [05:52] which brings us to what the regime is [05:55] doing. So the regime, according to this [05:58] report here, they have shut down the [06:00] internet and shut down phone service so [06:02] that it's more difficult for footage to [06:06] get out and for the protesters to [06:07] communicate with each other. But Elon [06:09] Musk has reportedly stepped in to help [06:12] the protesters and uh and given them the [06:16] Starlink capability. So things are [06:20] escalating there. There are protesters [06:22] being killed. Reportedly 45 protesters [06:24] have been killed as of that last report [06:27] and everyone's watching to see what [06:29] President Trump is going to do. Now I [06:31] want to pull back the camera and talk [06:34] about what to look for down the road. So [06:37] if the regime starts really getting more [06:38] and more violent and shooting at [06:40] protesters more and more, while this is [06:42] obviously a tragedy, it doesn't mean [06:45] that the protests are failing and that [06:46] the regime is stronger. It actually is a [06:48] sign of weakness because it will make it [06:51] uh it will increase the likelihood of [06:53] more rebellion down the road. It will [06:55] not help the regime in these protests [06:58] long term if they're killing a lot of [06:59] protesters. It could also invite [07:01] intervention by the West, specifically [07:03] President Trump fulfilling his threats. [07:06] I believe that the worst case scenario [07:08] that we could see in these protests is [07:11] actually something that looks like [07:12] regime change but isn't really regime [07:14] change. In other words, let's say you [07:17] have like the second tier leadership or [07:19] like the military leaders would step in, [07:22] overthrow the top level guys, overthrow [07:25] the mullers and say, "We're not like [07:28] them. We're not, you know, we're not [07:30] enforcing the Islamic stuff. We're [07:32] turning on the regime. This is regime [07:34] change and we're also, you know, [07:36] bureaucrats who know how to run things [07:38] because we've been running things for [07:39] years." And the West might buy that [07:41] because President Trump and other [07:43] Western leaders, what they really want [07:44] more than anything else is stability and [07:46] quiet. And if you have a bunch of of [07:48] bureaucrats, these mobsters, these [07:50] criminals who've been running the [07:51] Iranian regime for years, who would have [07:54] an internal coup at the top and say that [07:56] they're not part of the regime anymore [07:58] and there's been regime change and [08:00] they're more moderate and more [08:01] pro-western, but really they would just [08:03] continue to oppress the people and you'd [08:05] have a kind of military dictatorship [08:08] replace the Islamic dictatorship that [08:10] you have now. That to me is the worst [08:12] case scenario because it would make it [08:14] much more difficult for regime change, [08:17] real regime change to happen. So that to [08:19] me is the worst case scenario for us to [08:22] look for down the road. And I also want [08:24] to make a comment about the strategic [08:26] importance of Iran. The Iranian regime [08:29] is close allies with the Chinese [08:31] Communist Party. Back in 2021, they [08:33] signed a 25-year cooperation agreement. [08:36] Uh the Iranians uh sell much of their [08:38] oil to the Chinese Communist Party. The [08:41] Chinese in turn of course provide a lot [08:44] of the funding for the Iranians but also [08:47] provide the Iranians with weaponry. They [08:49] sell them airplanes and ballist and they [08:51] help with their ballistic missile [08:52] program and their air defenses. So the [08:55] Iranians depend on the Chinese Communist [08:57] Party. The Chinese Communist Party [08:58] depends on the Iranians. And they're all [08:59] part of this three-way axis of evil [09:01] between the Iranians, the Russians, and [09:04] and the Chinese. If the Iranian regime [09:06] falls and Iran is is becomes aligned [09:09] with the West, which is a distinct [09:11] possibility here, the big loser in all [09:13] of this is the Chinese Communist Party. [09:15] And it means that America's position [09:17] visav the Chinese Communist Party is [09:19] greatly enhanced, greatly strengthened. [09:21] This this makes Taiwan safer and it [09:24] really changes the geopolitics of the [09:26] whole world. So, this isn't just an [09:27] issue of the Middle East. Now, it's not [09:29] certain that the regime is going to [09:31] fall. A lot can still happen in the [09:33] coming days. Um, and we're going to be [09:35] watching this situation obviously very [09:37] very closely.
