Transcript [00:00] Hey everyone, it is Friday, January [00:03] 23rd, 2026, and we have a major update [00:05] on Iran. Let's let's level set where we [00:09] are. We The whole world is waiting to [00:11] see what the Americans are going to do. [00:13] President Trump was on Air Force One [00:16] just yesterday and here is what he had [00:18] to say. [00:19] >> Things stand with Iran. The US has got [00:21] sizable military assets. [00:24] >> You know, we have a lot of ships going [00:26] that direction just in case. So, we have [00:28] a big flotilla going in that direction [00:33] and we'll see what happens. [00:36] >> A big force. We have a big force going [00:37] toward Iran. [00:40] I'd rather not see anything happened, [00:42] but we're watching them very closely. I [00:44] stopped 837 [00:47] hangings on Thursday. [00:50] They would have been dead. Every one of [00:52] them would have been hung. This is like [00:55] from a thousand years ago. This is an [00:57] ancient culture. Very smart people, by [00:59] the way. But it's an ancient culture. [01:02] 837, [01:04] mostly young men, were going to be hung [01:07] on Thursday. And I said, "If you hang [01:10] those people, you're going to be hit [01:12] harder than you've ever been hit. It'll [01:15] make what we did to your Iran nuclear [01:17] look like peanuts." And [01:20] an hour before this horrible thing was [01:23] going to take place, they cancelled it. [01:25] And they they actually said they [01:27] cancelled it. They didn't postpone it. [01:28] They canceled it. So that was a good [01:30] sign. But we have a uh an arm motto. We [01:33] have a massive we have a massive fleet [01:36] heading in that direction. [01:38] And maybe we won't have to use it. We'll [01:40] see. [01:41] >> Would you like the supreme leader to [01:43] step down or to go into exile right now? [01:46] I don't want to get into that. [01:49] >> Okay. So [clears throat] this is a huge [01:52] story. Uh, an American fleet has headed [01:55] towards Iran. In fact, it's really [01:57] arrived. We're seeing reports from open [01:59] source information yesterday. Uh, here's [02:01] Aayou Nasir. Breaking news. They're [02:04] here. They're here. The US strike naval [02:06] force led by aircraft carrier USS [02:08] Abraham Lincoln has arrived in the [02:11] Arabian Sea near Iran. The USS Abraham [02:13] Lincoln, a Nimitz class nuclear super [02:16] carrier, is a major move of the US [02:19] forces from the South China Sea to the [02:21] Middle East. and it is it is coming [02:24] right in there to you know to face off [02:27] against Iran. Now this could be directly [02:30] related to what we were just talking [02:31] about [snorts] that the that the Qataris [02:35] and the Saudis said that you can't use [02:36] their their territory as a launch and as [02:39] a launching pad and you can't use their [02:41] airspace. So you know President Trump [02:44] and I pointed this out in one of the [02:46] earlier updates. I don't think President [02:48] Trump likes to be told what he can and [02:49] can't do by states that he's really [02:52] guaranteeing the security of. And while [02:53] he's not going to necessarily say [02:55] something publicly to rupture the [02:57] relationship with the Qataris and the [02:58] Saudis, I'm sure the message was sent. [03:01] And now we have this aircraft carrier [03:03] which is which has F-35s, is very [03:06] advanced, and other US military assets [03:08] in the region are amassing as well. [03:10] Let's take a look at some of the other [03:12] at some of the other uh info we have [03:15] coming out of uh of the area. [03:19] So, um here is a new a story from Fox [03:23] inside Trump's Iran warning and the [03:25] unexpected pause that followed. And [03:28] right there at the beginning of the [03:30] story, look at this. US and regional [03:32] security experts say the decision was [03:33] driven by caution, not retreat. a strike [03:37] risked retaliation against US forces in [03:40] Israel. It also raised questions about [03:42] who would follow in Iran's leadership. [03:45] But then later on uh it it mentions in [03:48] the story the fact that uh that it [03:50] reiterates the fact that President Trump [03:53] did say that he would come to the aid of [03:55] the protesters. A US aircraft carrier is [03:58] currently steaming toward the Gulf that [03:59] we just talked about that and you know [04:03] this this really signals that yes the US [04:05] is still planning to attack. Now here is [04:08] Jonathan Kenriquez. Jonathan Lieutenant [04:10] Colonel Jonathan Kenriquez. He is a [04:12] former IDF international spokesperson [04:15] and a senior fellow at the foundation [04:17] for the defense of democracies. And [04:19] let's take a look at his briefing on [04:22] what he thinks is going to happen. This [04:23] is someone I can tell you is someone who [04:25] lives in Israel. Jonathan Kenrikus is as [04:27] well informed about what is happening [04:30] militarily in the Middle East as anybody [04:32] in the world. So, let's listen carefully [04:34] to his briefing on the situation. And [04:36] joining us now for more is reserves IDF [04:39] Lieutenant Colonel Jonathan Kenriquez. [04:41] He's the former IDF international [04:43] spokesperson. He's now a senior fellow [04:45] at the Foundation for the Defense of [04:47] Democracy. Jonathan, thank you so much [04:49] for joining us. [04:50] >> Thank you. [04:50] >> Well, we just heard from uh the Supreme [04:53] Leader and President Trump. As the [04:54] saying goes, this time it's personal. Uh [04:57] this kind of exchange, you think it's [04:59] bringing us any closer to, for example, [05:02] a US military action against Iran? [05:05] >> I think it adds to the strategic [05:07] ambiguity of what the US is going to do, [05:09] what President Trump is going to order. [05:11] And I think that the most important [05:12] parts are the location of military [05:16] assets, US military assets and [05:18] capabilities in the region, which have [05:20] been building clearly over the last few [05:22] days. And I think that within a matter [05:24] of days, maybe a week, the US will have [05:28] all that it needs in position to take [05:31] meaningful action against Iran, which I [05:33] personally believe is coming. [05:34] >> All right. Well, let me ask you, what [05:37] kind of action could we expect? Uh it [05:40] does seem as if at this stage perhaps [05:42] the US won't be targeting Kame himself [05:44] personally, though we never know with [05:46] President Trump. Uh but what kind of [05:48] action do you anticipate? Well, at this [05:51] stage, I think that the US will have a [05:53] pretty wide availability of different [05:56] tools and different actions. I don't [05:58] think that we will see a Maduro [06:00] operation because it is much more [06:02] difficult to get into Iran and get [06:03] beyond layers of defense in order to [06:06] actually apprehend a leader. So, I would [06:08] put that aside. And I don't think that [06:10] we're going to see ground units. I think [06:12] that we will see eventually standoff [06:14] fire from aerial platforms, from naval [06:16] platforms that will hit specific targets [06:19] that are related to the oppression of [06:22] Iranian the Iranian people. The Basie [06:25] headquarters, the IRGC headquarters, and [06:27] other key nodes of command and control [06:30] and really the centers of power of the [06:33] Iranian regime. The same forces that [06:35] have been basically mowing down Iranians [06:37] on the streets. We're looking at [06:39] everywhere between 8 and 15,000 people [06:42] depending on different reports. It's [06:44] very difficult to get information out [06:46] but we know that thousands have been [06:47] murdered mowed down on the streets. I [06:49] assume that these will be the forces [06:51] that will be the first target and then [06:54] uh an anticipated Iranian retaliation [06:57] whether it's against American troops and [06:59] assets in the region and if it includes [07:01] Israel or not we'll have to wait and [07:03] see. And then a followup which I think [07:06] indeed will indeed target the supreme [07:08] leader Kamina himself and actually aim [07:12] by military force to bring down the [07:14] regime and to allow the protesters who [07:16] have been out on the streets day in day [07:19] out but then mow down in the most brutal [07:21] fashion to give them the kind of you [07:24] know the cavalry is here and let them [07:27] know that now is the time to actually [07:29] take back their country and free [07:31] themselves from 47 years of the Islamic [07:34] regime's horrible oppression of the [07:36] Iranian people [07:37] >> and how do you expect the regime to [07:38] react certainly to initial attack [07:40] something like the restrained almost [07:42] symbolic response we saw last year or [07:45] something more serious that of course is [07:47] likely to target Israel [07:49] >> well I think that the US and probably [07:51] also Israel will be watching that very [07:54] closely watching for the indicative [07:57] signs of opening of silos preparation of [08:00] launching of ballistic missiles and [08:03] anything that will be indicative of [08:05] Iranian intentions to fire towards [08:08] Israel or to fire towards major US [08:10] assets. If that happens, Israel and the [08:13] US will have capabilities at hand in [08:16] order to preempt that. So, I don't I [08:18] don't know exactly what the Iranians [08:20] will do. I think they have a pretty [08:22] limited tool tool toolbox available as [08:26] opposed to a year and a half ago. Two [08:28] years ago, we would have been talking [08:30] about, you know, the entire region [08:31] about, Hamas, the Houthis, and proxies [08:35] in Syria. But today, they're left with [08:38] missiles and the IRGC, and perhaps [08:41] overseas attacks, none of which are [08:44] going to save the Iranian regime from [08:46] what is coming, what I believe is [08:48] coming, and that is an onslaught on the [08:50] headquarters, the command and control, [08:52] and the ability of the Iranian regime to [08:55] continue to oppress the Iranian people. [08:57] Yeah, we do know the US is keeping the [09:00] diplomacy option on the table and we [09:02] heard uh Steve Wickoff, the special [09:05] envo, President Trump's special envoy [09:07] just the other day uh speaking at a [09:09] conference saying we uh we would like to [09:12] still negotiate with the regime. Uh we [09:14] even gave out a list of conditions, some [09:17] of them were acceptable to Israel. [09:18] noticeable not on the list of conditions [09:21] was any move towards protecting the [09:24] protesters or a or or a any kind of real [09:27] fundamental [09:28] >> change of engagement and different use [09:30] of force by regime. [09:31] >> Right. Right. Uh so how likely I mean in [09:34] Israel you're hearing an expression in [09:35] Hebrew lik. [09:43] >> Yes. Well, he is the diplomacy guy. [09:44] It'll be very surprising if he were to [09:47] speak about military options. His [09:49] toolbox is the diplomatic one and he has [09:52] he's someone who has brought significant [09:54] achievements in the Gaza part of the [09:57] world and other areas. But I don't think [09:59] that that is where we are going. I think [10:01] that the actions, the brutality, the way [10:03] that the Iranian regime chose to oppress [10:07] the uprising and the protesters to [10:09] basically mow them down in cold blood [10:12] with bases and IRGC forces with foreign [10:14] mer mercenaries that they brought in [10:16] from Iraq, from Afghanistan and other [10:18] places. That is one bridge too far. That [10:21] is one bloodbath too far. And I think [10:23] that the personal attacks and the [10:25] insults out of Hamini's Twitter account [10:28] and other accounts against President [10:30] Trump, he's only digging his hole [10:32] deeper. And I don't think that those are [10:34] very wise decisions that have been made [10:36] to communicate and to entice personally [10:38] President Trump. [10:39] >> And Jonathan, even if there was such a a [10:42] serious attack, you said against key [10:44] points of the leadership, even taking [10:46] out perhaps the supreme leader, would [10:48] that lead to regime change? We know how [10:51] powerful and entrenched, for example, [10:53] the IRGC and its various bodies are [10:56] >> indeed. And I think that the most [10:57] important back channel conversations and [11:00] the other scenarios that I'm sure are [11:02] happening now as we speak are different [11:04] parts of the Iranian regime, the IRGC [11:08] specifically, but perhaps other parts, [11:11] perhaps the army, I don't think the [11:12] Basie, but army and IRGC. There may be, [11:16] you know, we may see a an Egyptian [11:19] variant of a an Iranian asisi taking [11:23] power and relieving the supreme leader [11:25] of his authority and saying, "I want to [11:28] save the country from a foreign [11:30] onslaught. I want to save us the [11:31] destruction that is coming that you have [11:34] brought upon us and as a defensive [11:36] measure, we're now taking control and [11:38] this will be a transit to some type of [11:41] other governance." That's also a a point [11:44] I agree with you. The Iranian regime is [11:47] entrenched. It is brutal. It is has had [11:50] a lot of time to, you know, build an [11:53] oppressive system that is very powerful [11:55] and still effective. It they came close [11:58] to, you know, breaking. But when that [12:00] came, they simply uh notched up the [12:03] violence, used, you know, basically [12:06] tools of war, machine guns and assault [12:09] rifles and mowed down their own people [12:11] on Iranian streets. That is how [12:13] desperate they were, which I think is [12:16] indicative of how weak they really are [12:18] when they resort to that level of [12:20] violence. So bottom line, yes, powerful, [12:23] yes, very varied, and there are [12:25] different centers of power in the [12:27] Iranian regime. I wouldn't rule out a [12:29] scenario of a general or some other [12:32] strong man that will come in and say, [12:34] "Let's save us the trouble of an Iraq [12:36] scenario or a Libya scenario and let's [12:39] transition into something that is a [12:42] different type of regime and let's not [12:43] go all the way of having to have, you [12:45] know, mayhem and and anarchy on the [12:48] street which could follow if kinetic [12:51] force is applied on the centers of [12:53] gravity of the Iranian regime and then [12:55] the people take over. That could become [12:56] very messy. All right. Could become [12:58] messy. But of course, uh, [13:01] >> wow. So, you know, he answered so many [13:04] questions there that we've been talking [13:06] about in these updates at, you know, of [13:09] course, no one knows what's going to [13:10] happen. But when we talk about will [13:12] attacks actually bring down the regime. [13:15] The question is, what would attacks that [13:17] could bring down the regime look like? [13:19] What exactly exactly is that? So, you [13:21] know, Kenrikus really laid it out that [13:23] there is such a thing as the right type [13:24] of kinetic attacks that could bring down [13:26] the regime. But he also towards the end [13:28] I found this to be the most interesting [13:29] part of his briefing was what are the [13:33] options? And right at the beginning of [13:34] all this I pointed out in these updates [13:37] that my big fear and and what could end [13:40] up happening as the result of all of [13:42] these protests and the teetering regime [13:46] is that the regime could look like it [13:48] fell but it didn't really fall. And [13:51] that's basically what he was describing [13:52] there where there's a there's basically [13:54] a military coup and instead of having [13:58] mullas and and you know at the top of [14:00] the regime and it being this [14:01] ideologically Islamist regime, it's [14:04] still a brutal military dictatorship [14:06] taken over by the top military people [14:08] who are already the same criminals [14:10] running the regime right now. And that [14:12] would still mean that the Iranian people [14:13] aren't really living in a free country. [14:15] But the West might accept that because [14:17] it would mean less chaos and it would [14:20] mean that uh the main existential issue [14:23] for Israel and the main security issue [14:25] for America, which is this radical [14:28] Islamist regime, it wouldn't be a [14:29] radical Islamist regime anymore. It [14:31] would certainly be better than what [14:32] we've had for the rest of us, but it [14:34] wouldn't necessarily free the Iranian [14:36] people. So, and of course, bottom line, [14:39] there are these military assets by the [14:40] US. You saw what he said there that [14:42] there's now a kind of surrounding of [14:44] Iran by various military assets and it [14:46] looks like all the pieces are in place [14:48] to bring down the Iranian regime. Pull [14:50] back the camera a bit and this is my, [14:51] you know, the final point I want to make [14:53] is that I don't think that President [14:55] Trump with all of his grandiose [14:56] ambitions of reshaping the world and the [14:58] way he's always had Iran in his sights [15:00] going back to his first term when he [15:02] killed Kasamsulammani, going back to [15:03] even before he ran for president, he [15:05] would always talk about the Iran threat [15:07] and how Iran can't have nuclear weapons. [15:09] President Trump has always seen Iran as [15:11] the evil regime that it is. And I don't [15:13] think he wants to leave his presidency [15:16] without [15:18] finalizing the end of the Iranian [15:21] regime. I think he would consider it a [15:22] major historic accomplishment as it [15:24] would be. All right, folks. If you're [15:26] enjoying these updates, please be sure [15:29] to like, subscribe, follow, share, etc. [15:31] But also check out all the content going [15:33] up at Israel 365's [15:36] YouTube channel where I put up uh very [15:38] important videos for Israel 365 a number [15:41] of times a
