Transcript [00:00] Hey everybody, it is Friday, January [00:02] 16th, 2026, and here's an update about [00:05] what's going on in Iran. As we talked [00:07] about yesterday, uh, President Trump [00:10] decided to hold back and not carry out [00:12] attacks on the Iranian on Iranian sites [00:15] to bring down the regime. from reports [00:17] that uh we're getting, it turns out that [00:20] there was an attack planned, but that [00:23] President Trump did not feel confident [00:24] that an attack that this attack would [00:27] bring down the regime, and he doesn't [00:28] want to carry out an attack that won't [00:30] have that effect. And there's some logic [00:32] to that because if you carry out an [00:34] attack that doesn't bring down the [00:36] regime, although you might think that [00:38] you're helping the protesters, it could [00:40] add it could lead to a lot more [00:42] bloodshed. could lead to all sorts of [00:44] retaliations against Israel and against [00:46] American um other American assets in the [00:49] Middle East which could lead to all [00:51] kinds of escalation and might not hasten [00:54] the downfall of the regime. The regime [00:56] is teetering anyway. The protests are [00:58] ongoing and uh we're going to take a [01:00] look at those protests right now. So, [01:02] just before we get all up in arms about [01:04] the fact that maybe President Trump was [01:06] held back from carrying out an attack, [01:08] I'll remind you, as I've said in a [01:10] number of these videos, the Iranian [01:12] regime is not some little mom and pop [01:14] shop like some of these other [01:15] dictatorships in the Middle East like [01:17] Libya used to be under Gaddafi or Iraq [01:20] under Saddam Hussein or Syria under [01:22] Assad that if you remove the top guy, [01:24] the regime is no longer. It doesn't work [01:26] that way. It does not work that way in [01:29] Iran. both because of the sheer size of [01:31] Iran, also because of the the massive [01:35] structure of its government and of the [01:37] IRGC. It's not so simple to just take [01:41] down the regime. Uh and the United [01:43] States has to weigh its options very [01:45] carefully. We also pointed out in the [01:47] previous update that Qatar and Saudi [01:50] Arabia were were uh preventing the [01:52] United States from using their airspace [01:54] or in Qatar's case using the base on [01:56] their property. We will get into that in [01:59] a few minutes, but first let's go to an [02:00] update of what is actually happening [02:03] in in Iran these days. So, we're now [02:07] seeing that the the Iranian regime has [02:09] instituted martial law, basically making [02:13] it illegal for anyone to be outside [02:16] and they're strictly enforcing that. Uh [02:18] here we'll take a look at a scene. This [02:20] is this is some footage that made it out [02:22] uh of the martial law being implemented [02:24] in Thran. Take a look at this. [02:28] So you see what it says here telling [02:30] everyone to go inside their houses [02:34] >> to distinguish yourselves from you and [02:36] the rioters go inside your homes [02:41] and you hear gunshots being fired which [02:43] could be just trying to frighten people [02:46] but the streets getting very empty now [02:48] that doesn't mean that everyone is being [02:50] obedient about uh following along with [02:54] the martial law as we'll see here this [02:56] is After the martial law was [02:57] implemented, there are still crowds and [02:59] crowds of people in the streets. This [03:01] it's kind of dark, but if you see this [03:03] big mass of people going all the way [03:05] around the corner here, there are still [03:07] pretty big protests going on. [03:10] Uh but but they have uh implemented [03:13] martial law. And here this uh this [03:15] Twitter this Twitter account writes, [03:18] "This is Iran now. Iranians opposing the [03:21] Islamic regime are defying martial law [03:23] and refusing to leave the streets. [03:25] Despite repression, the public remains [03:27] resilient. Very good. And we are of [03:29] course praying for them. Now, here is [03:31] some very chilling footage. This is [03:33] actually a few days old, but it is [03:35] footage of a protester being shot. So, [03:38] let me take you through this footage. [03:40] What you have here is confrontation. [03:42] Here's the protester right here. This is [03:44] the protester and he's sort of being [03:46] tackled to the ground by this by this [03:48] member of the besiege of the security [03:51] force [03:53] and [03:55] sort of struggle and he pulls him to the [03:57] ground and then once he's got him on the [03:59] ground they shoot him. Here we go. [04:04] And they kill the protester right there [04:06] on the ground. So there's more and more [04:08] of this footage coming out of protesters [04:10] actually being killed in Iran. Now here [04:12] this is interest this is an interesting [04:13] angle. We've talked about Resa Palvi the [04:16] crown prince. Now he is the son of the [04:19] sha of Iran. Just to review for those [04:21] who don't know the terms the sha of Iran [04:23] was the leader of Iran before the [04:25] revolution. He was a reformer. He was [04:27] making Iran much more of a pro-western [04:29] place. He sort of had he had the title [04:31] of king but that doesn't mean that Iran [04:32] wasn't a democratic place. It was king [04:34] kind of the way you have a queen in [04:36] England or a king in Jordan where [04:38] there's still a legislature and there's [04:39] still freedom but a lot of leadership [04:41] and decisions are made by the sha. Now [04:44] the sha was not he was sort of mixed [04:48] popularity and that's what led to the [04:50] revolution. Uh part of what led to the [04:52] revolution in 1979 was that he was [04:55] extremely permissive [04:57] uh about uh western behavior about you [05:01] know women walking around not dressed [05:03] modestly and things that offended that [05:05] offended Muslims and there was a little [05:07] too much permissiveness and liberalism [05:10] for this traditional culture and that [05:12] led to the backlash that ultimately [05:13] brought the Islamic regime to power. [05:16] Ever since then, Reza, the son, has been [05:18] living in exile and he is now [05:22] positioning himself to lead coming back [05:25] into Iran. So, that's a little bit [05:26] controversial. First of all, some of the [05:28] other opposition groups don't want a [05:30] return of Asha. Uh, I would say a fair [05:33] number of them. And it's always been an [05:36] open question to what extent does he [05:38] actually have popular support in the [05:40] streets of Iran. He has been throughout [05:43] the protests putting out these [05:44] encouraging messages. We've shared some [05:46] of them in our updates [05:48] and the the population has been [05:50] responding. There have been people [05:52] chanting in the streets for him. Uh but [05:54] it is an open question about how popular [05:56] he is. Frankly though, it's kind of u a [06:00] question that's not worth even dealing [06:02] with yet because no one's coming in to [06:05] replace this regime until the regime [06:07] actually falls. But there are uh there [06:10] are many in the left-wing media and the [06:12] mainstream media who have been starting [06:15] to attack Raza Palvi even though he's [06:17] basically a freedom fighter for his [06:18] people. Whether or not he becomes the [06:21] next leader of Iran is is a question. Uh [06:24] but they've been attacking him. And this [06:26] is an interesting interview that took [06:27] place just the other day. Let's take a [06:29] look at this. [06:32] >> As a as more of a unifying figurehead or [06:34] do you see yourself actually wielding [06:36] power? I'm talking about this phase of [06:38] transition being the only person that [06:40] people can trust as being a neutral or [06:42] >> you're gonna run anything. [06:43] >> I have offered my services in that [06:46] capacity and I believe the trust that [06:48] people have given to me behooves me to [06:52] respond to that call and say I accept [06:54] that uh uh responsibility. I'm not [06:57] working alone. Obviously I'm trying to [07:00] bring as many people who are like-minded [07:02] in on on the basis of three very simple [07:04] principles. Number one is Iran [07:06] territorial integrity. The second [07:08] principle that we invoke, a clear [07:10] separation of religion from state, not [07:13] to have yet again a dominant single [07:15] ideology. And the most important point, [07:20] a guarantee of self-determination by [07:22] means of free elections. And that's [07:24] ultimately what leads us to a democratic [07:26] alternative. The minute the ultimate [07:28] will of the people is ratified by means [07:30] of a final referendum, the temporary [07:33] government will transfer power to that [07:36] elected parliament and new government. [07:38] >> But just to be very clear that that [07:40] period will take a while. In that period [07:42] you will rule by decree. [07:44] >> This is not a process where a temporary [07:45] government gets elected. It is a [07:48] voluntary step taken by people like [07:50] myself and whoever I'm working with [07:52] which of course the endorsement and the [07:54] support of the people. I'm not doing [07:56] this against their will. I'm doing this [07:57] at their ask. That's the difference. So [08:00] the ask itself means that they want this [08:02] to happen and they want to be able to [08:04] trust someone and that that person at [08:07] this point is me to do that for them. [08:09] And as I said, I'm not doing this. [08:11] >> Well, there are there are many people [08:13] you have you have a number of and a [08:15] reasonably large fraction of the Iranian [08:17] population is is are fervent supporters [08:19] of yours, but not everybody is. Not [08:21] everybody is. What is the legitimacy [08:23] that you are using to do this? I mean, [08:26] you know, one could say you're coming [08:28] in, you've spent your entire life since [08:29] you were in your a teenager outside the [08:31] country. Your father was not exactly a [08:33] popular figure and now you're coming in [08:35] and saying, "Right, I'm here in charge [08:37] again, and this is what I'm going to [08:38] do." [08:38] >> I'm only responding to what people are [08:40] asking for. What name has been chanted [08:43] in the streets of Iran in the last few [08:44] months? What name do you see be written [08:46] on the walls? What slogans have they [08:48] chanted in the recent weeks? They have [08:51] chanted the name of my family. They have [08:52] called for me specifically. [08:55] I think that's pretty much of an [08:56] indication of what the people want. [08:58] >> That's I guess that's what I'm asking. [08:59] Do you think that I mean yes there have [09:00] clearly been [09:01] >> Isn't that sufficient to establish? [09:03] >> It's not everybody, right? [09:04] >> Of course it's not everybody. Do can you [09:06] tell me anywhere in the world that [09:08] somebody has a 100% vote of everybody? [09:10] Of course not. [09:11] >> But the majority believe in that [09:13] direction. It's not even an issue of the [09:15] final form. Republicans, monarchies, [09:18] that's not even the debate. I'm not here [09:20] to advocate an outcome, but I'm a breach [09:22] to that destination. [09:25] >> So, yeah, that's an interview with the [09:27] editor-inchief of the economist. Uh, and [09:31] you see what Resa Palvi is saying there. [09:33] He's being attacked that, you know, do [09:35] you really have legitimacy? And he's [09:36] saying, look, you know, there are people [09:39] chanting my name. There is a lot of [09:41] popular support. They are chanting [09:42] Palvi. Some of that is sentimental that [09:44] they're chanting the name of the of the [09:47] last leader before the revolution took [09:51] place in 1979, which is his father. So, [09:53] they're yearning for that pre-Islamic [09:56] revolution time. And and and Reza Palvi [09:59] is saying quite openly, look, I I'm a [10:01] you know, I'm advocating for the freedom [10:03] of my people. I'm advocating for an open [10:05] and democratic society with freedom of [10:07] of religion and no state religion. [10:09] That's what I'm advocating for. And I am [10:11] and and he is the symbolic leader of the [10:14] opposition. Now he referred to [10:15] monarchists and republicans. Let's get [10:17] used to those two terms because if God [10:20] willing if God willing the regime does [10:23] fall, you're going to hear those two [10:24] terms a lot. Let me explain who they [10:26] are. Among the exile community, the [10:29] diaspora community of Iranians of [10:32] Persians who live all over the world, a [10:34] lot of them in Europe, a lot of them in [10:35] the United States. California has a big [10:37] population of them. Um among the the [10:39] Iranian exile community [10:43] there are monarchists. Monarchists are [10:46] the ones who support Resa Palvi. They [10:48] support the the return of the Sha [10:50] family. [10:52] And then there are Republicans. That's [10:53] what they call themselves. Nothing to do [10:55] with the Republican party in the United [10:56] States, but they are the ones who don't [10:59] want to return to to the monarchy. They [11:02] want to have a pure westernstyle [11:04] democratic republic without any [11:06] figurehead monarch. [11:08] uh at the top of it. And while while [11:11] these two factions, the Republicans and [11:15] the monarchists disagree on what the day [11:17] after in Iran should look like, that [11:19] doesn't mean that they're hostile to [11:20] each other in an ongoing basis. They [11:22] both do cooperate as part of the [11:25] dissident anti-regime Iranian population [11:28] in exile. So, it's not like a, you know, [11:31] it's not like there's going to be a [11:32] shooting war between them. uh but but [11:35] there are these two these two different [11:37] factions and they might very well end up [11:39] becoming two different political parties [11:42] in a post uh in a post regime [11:45] in a post-regime Iran. So yes, so that's [11:49] this becomes an open an open question [11:51] that hopefully will become a question [11:53] that really has to be taken seriously [11:54] because if it has to be taken seriously, [11:56] it'll mean that uh excuse me, it'll mean [11:59] that the regime has fallen. Now, one [12:01] last thing I wanted to share with you. [12:03] Take a look at this here. Uh, I [12:04] mentioned this in the previous update [12:06] that Qatar said that it won't allow [12:07] attacks from its Aluade base against [12:10] other countries. Now, the Aluade base is [12:12] the major United States uh base, the [12:16] Sentcom base in Qatar. That's America's [12:18] headquarters in Qatar. And as I [12:20] mentioned in the in the previous update, [12:23] Qatar has refused to allow the US to use [12:25] it. So, Mark Levvin, the famous talk [12:26] show host, points out the obvious. Qatar [12:29] is using our base there to actually [12:31] limit our ability to make independent [12:33] decisions in our national security [12:35] interests. We can't let a terror state [12:37] with 300,000 people aligned with Iran to [12:40] control what we do. They're using our [12:42] base against us. Right? So he he's [12:45] making an obvious point and this is a [12:47] point it's not [12:50] in the short term it could be that the [12:52] Qataris get their will but bear in mind [12:56] if the Qataris are telling are tying the [12:59] Americans hands even if President Trump [13:00] decides in the end not to attack [13:03] the fact that he's being told what he [13:05] can and can't do with an American base [13:07] in Qatar by the Qataris is going to [13:11] leave a mark as they would say it's [13:12] going to have some damage down the road. [13:14] it does not do well for the Qataris. Uh [13:17] and it it it puts a crack in this whole [13:19] love affair between the Trump [13:20] administration and the Qataris. Uh and [13:22] and Mark Lebin points out the obvious. [13:24] Don't tell us what to do with our base. [13:25] Now, in response to this tweet, a member [13:28] of the Qatari royal family, this guy [13:30] here, what's his name? It's it's written [13:33] here in Arabic, KBJ Alani. The Alani [13:37] family, you see, Alani is his name. The [13:39] Alani family is the ruling family in [13:42] Qatar because these these these Arab [13:46] countries are basically run like family [13:47] businesses. They're like mafia families, [13:49] right? So the Alani family, that's [13:51] Qatar. Qatar only has uh you know a [13:55] limited number of people who are [13:56] citizens and if you're not a citizen, [13:58] you can't become a citizen. Everyone [13:59] else there are guest workers or slaves. [14:01] So, this member of the Qatari uh royal [14:05] family [14:06] writes the following in response to Mark [14:08] Levven. Check this out. Owning an [14:10] apartment in a residential neighborhood [14:12] doesn't give you the right to control [14:14] the fate of that neighborhood simply [14:15] because you own the apartment. You are [14:17] merely a tenant of a military base in [14:20] Qatar. So, do not act as if you are [14:22] doing us a favor because everyone knows [14:24] it benefits you far more than it [14:25] benefits us. If Qatar decides to [14:28] dismantle the American base on its [14:29] territory, it would not harm us much. [14:32] But for you, it would amount to cutting [14:34] off one of your hands in the Middle [14:36] East. In short, the state you label as [14:38] terrorist is the very state you are [14:41] pleading with to maintain the military [14:43] base and host your troops. When the [14:46] decision concerns the sovereignt When [14:48] the decision concerns the sovereignty [14:50] and general interest of the Arab region [14:51] and the Gulf, the decision is [14:53] undoubtedly a Gulf decision, not an [14:55] American one. Shut up, Mark. Now, that [14:59] to me is, you know, the there's a [15:01] Yiddish term that's become a kind of, [15:02] you know, popular word in English, this [15:05] is the ultimate hutbah. Look, this this [15:08] base in Qatar protects Qatar. It it it [15:14] President Trump, let's go back to when [15:16] Israel attacked [15:18] uh the kamas leadership in Qatar a [15:22] number of months back. And Trump was not [15:23] happy with that. remember they launched [15:25] an air strike trying to kill these these [15:27] Hamas leaders. And at that time, [15:28] President Trump put out an executive [15:31] order, a very controversial executive [15:32] order [15:35] uh pledging that the United States would [15:38] grant protections to Qatar similar to [15:40] what are called article 5 protections in [15:42] the NATO alliance, which means that like [15:45] in in NATO, if any NATO member state is [15:48] attacked, all NATO member states have to [15:50] respond and come to their defense. [15:52] That's article 5 of NATO. So, President [15:54] Trump extended this tight article 5 type [15:56] protection to Qatar as a push back [15:59] against the Israelis and as a kind of [16:01] warning to the Israelis uh saying that [16:03] if Qatar gets attacked, the United [16:05] States will come to Qatar's aid. Okay, [16:09] so Qatar is basically an American [16:11] protectorate. Okay, they're not I mean [16:14] calling the American base there a tenant [16:16] in Qatar is a little bit of skewing the [16:20] actuality here. Qatar gains a tremendous [16:22] amount. It it it gains this this very [16:26] important security protection especially [16:28] considering the fact that other states [16:30] in the region right immed right around [16:33] it immediately like Bahrain and the [16:34] Emirates and traditionally the Saudis [16:37] even though lately they've been on [16:38] better terms have had very hostile [16:40] relationships to Qatar. There was almost [16:42] a shooting war, a literal war between a [16:45] Saudi Aradileled coalition [16:48] against the Qataris back in 2017. The [16:51] Americans stepped in and stopped it. The [16:52] Americans have protected the Qataris on [16:54] a number of occasions. So, it's pretty [16:56] uh amazing to me to see this mayor this [16:59] to see this member of the Qatari royal [17:01] family saying, "Yeah, you know, you [17:03] don't get to tell us what to do with [17:04] your base." But again, as I said at the [17:07] beginning of the video, long-term, this [17:09] could have some serious implications for [17:12] Qatari US relations. I think that's a [17:14] good thing. I think the Americans do [17:15] need to realize that the Qataris cannot [17:18] be trusted to protect American [17:19] interests. The only ally in the region [17:21] that is really reliable to protect [17:23] American interests is Israel. [17:25] Um, and this whole love affair that the [17:27] Trump administration has had with the [17:29] Qataris and the compromise, you know, [17:31] you have a number of people very close [17:32] to Trump, including his own kids and [17:34] Steve Whit who have been in business [17:36] with the Qataris. Cash Patel, the head [17:38] of the FBI, uh, before he was in before [17:42] he was the head of the FBI, there was a [17:43] period of time where he was a registered [17:45] agent uh, being paid by the Qataris. Pam [17:48] Bondi, the attorney general, uh was [17:50] registered under the foreign agent [17:52] registration act on the payroll of the [17:55] Qataris. So there's a lot of compromise [17:57] in the Trump administration in his inner [17:58] circle from Qatar. And that has led to [18:02] this kind of tiptoeing around the [18:03] Qataris and what they want. But [18:06] President Trump is also someone who [18:07] doesn't like to be told what he can and [18:08] can't do. So, I I I think that this is [18:11] this is a plotline that we're going to [18:13] watch carefully and we'll include it in [18:15] our later updates.
