Transcript [00:00] Welcome to this episode of [00:01] Shouldertoshoulder, a podcast where a [00:03] pastor and a rabbi get to the heart of [00:04] issues that matter to people of faith. [00:06] I'm Pastor Doug Reed here with my friend [00:08] Rabbi Pesaki. And on this episode, we're [00:10] going to have a conversation about a [00:11] recent article I wrote in the Christian [00:13] Post. And then we'll be joined by our [00:15] friend, military and security expert [00:17] Elliot Choff to talk about the latest [00:19] happening in the Middle East. Before we [00:21] jump into our conversation, please like [00:23] our Facebook page and join our Facebook [00:24] group, the Shoulder-to-Ser Community, [00:26] where you can interact with Pesak and me [00:28] all week long. The best way to support [00:31] this podcast is to go on over to [00:32] Patreon, subscribe to [00:33] Shouldertoshoulder. For just $10 a [00:35] month, you're helping bring this message [00:37] of shoulder-to-shoulder to more and more [00:38] people all around the world. As a thank [00:40] you for your $10 subscription, you'll [00:42] get exclusive access to chapterby [00:44] chapter Bible study beginning in Genesis [00:46] chapter 1 from Rabbi Pesak and myself. [00:48] So, go on over to Patreon, subscribe to [00:50] Shouldertoshoulder for just $10 a month. [00:53] We are grateful for our sponsor, Israel [00:55] 365 News, which is the place for you to [00:57] go and get your news and information [00:58] before going to anyone else. Go on over [01:01] to israel365news.com [01:04] to check out some of their articles and [01:06] be sure to read Rabbi Pesak and my [01:07] columns. Peso each and every week. [01:10] Israel 365 has incredible products and [01:12] initiatives that they are supporting. [01:15] What are we supporting here on [01:16] Shouldertoshoulder this week? [01:19] >> Well, we've been talking about a lot of [01:20] charities and good causes lately, but [01:22] what I what I think we all need to do is [01:25] get plugged in to good information. We [01:28] talk about it all the time about going [01:29] to Israel 365 News. Uh but I also want [01:33] to uh alert everyone to we talked about [01:36] it before Israel 365 action the [01:38] organization that I lead and that is a [01:40] project of Israel 365 which is really [01:42] all about equipping you equipping all of [01:45] us with good information and good [01:47] arguments keeping our ear to the ground [01:49] and letting you know what is actually [01:51] going on so that you can defend Israel [01:53] and advocate for Israel. So, uh, please [01:56] go to israel365action.com. [02:00] Israel365action.com [02:03] and there you will, uh, you will have a [02:06] very easy sign up. Put in your name and [02:07] your email address and you'll get a [02:09] weekly newsletter which will keep you up [02:11] todate on all the hottest topics that [02:13] relate to Israel with important [02:15] information. You'll also, of course, [02:18] you'll also get uh, access to all of the [02:20] video clips of various interviews that [02:22] I'm doing in different media outlets. [02:24] So, if you if you if you don't get [02:25] enough of me on this podcast, you'll [02:27] have uh you you'll get it all there. But [02:30] please go to israel365action.com. [02:32] We live in a time where every single one [02:34] of us, whether it's in our social media [02:36] or in our interactions, every one of us [02:38] is on the front lines of the information [02:39] war. And this what it is. It is an [02:42] information war. And Israel 365 Action [02:44] is all about equipping you to be a an [02:47] effective combatant in the information [02:50] war. So go to israel365action.com [02:53] and make sure that you are subscribed to [02:55] our newsletter. [02:56] >> So important to stop by there and make [02:58] sure you do that. And speaking of the [03:01] information war pesak, I wrote an [03:04] article recently in the Christian Post [03:06] that carried it last week and uh it got [03:08] some traction and we're going to dive in [03:11] and talk about it. [03:13] >> Oh, so wait a sec. Let's just The [03:16] Christian Post, if I remember correctly, [03:18] you got hammered. you got attacked last [03:21] time you wrote for them for uh you know [03:23] I guess being a Judaizer or being or or [03:26] rejecting u too much Christian theology [03:29] because your argument against [03:30] replacement theology was all based in [03:32] the in the Hebrew Bible in the in what [03:35] Christians call the Old Testament. So um [03:38] I I guess you were you know you rolled [03:39] up your sleeves and we're ready for [03:40] more. So So what did you write about [03:42] this time? No, it's interesting because [03:44] I I try and pick the articles that I'm [03:46] going to post thinking about the [03:48] intended audience. And so if I'm going [03:50] to write for the Christian Post, I'm [03:51] trying to think with that end user in [03:53] mind. Uh it's not just about [03:55] pontificating. I pontificate plenty. I I [03:57] have plenty of opportunity to do that on [03:59] Sunday mornings and podcasting and and [04:01] and other spheres. And so I was trying [04:04] to be intentional. I actually wrote this [04:06] article about two months ago and I [04:08] played with it a little bit and I sat on [04:10] it a little bit and just kind of let it [04:12] uh marinate. But ultimately [04:15] I really wanted to make a case that [04:20] from the New Testament because the the [04:22] the heat that I took last time I wrote [04:26] an article out of the book of Jeremiah [04:28] that as long as the sun, moon, and stars [04:30] are in place, God's going to have a [04:32] covenant with Israel. And people took [04:33] issue with that because well, you're not [04:36] taking into account the New Testament. [04:38] You know, Jesus is coming and he [04:40] fulfills certain things and therefore uh [04:42] these things and very replacement [04:44] theology stuff. And and that was the I [04:47] think we had something like two or 300 [04:49] comments in the first 24 hours. And I [04:52] would say most of them were from that [04:54] standpoint because you didn't reference [04:56] the New Testament. Therefore, I can [04:57] disqualify what you wrote. So I said to [05:00] myself, all right, I I want to write [05:03] from a New Testament perspective. If I'm [05:06] going to put an article again in the [05:07] Christian Post, I have to just I'm just [05:10] going to use New Testament. [05:12] >> Hold on. Let me just let me just [05:13] interject here because especially [05:15] because we have a lot of Jewish [05:16] listeners as well. Could you just fill [05:18] us in about about a little bit about the [05:20] Christian Post, who its audience is, and [05:22] what you what significance it has as an [05:24] outlet? [05:25] >> Yeah. So, so the Christian Post has [05:26] several million uh subscribers, readers, [05:30] uh it's all over uh the internet. Uh it [05:34] tends to the one of the arguments in [05:36] Christianom is it tends to be uh maybe [05:38] center left. It's not quite a [05:40] conservative outlet of [05:42] >> interesting, you know, Christian [05:44] theology. Uh but it does a pretty good [05:47] job of spreading uh in the op-eds. They [05:50] they have people from all different [05:51] perspectives and they do a pretty good [05:53] job in in that department. But one of [05:55] the cases that I think a lot of [05:56] evangelicals and others make is that it [05:59] tends to lean a little bit into the [06:01] social gospel and into some of the uh [06:03] kind of left-leaning uh spaces of [06:06] Christianom. [06:07] >> Yes. So, so that's what you meant when [06:08] you said you think about the audience [06:10] like Israel 365 news audience. You know, [06:13] you're you're preaching more to the [06:14] converted and the Christian Zionist [06:16] world and here and here you have to make [06:18] your case to [06:20] >> to the you know to the crowd. [06:22] >> Correct. Then you have a lot of people [06:24] in traditional uh kind of Christian [06:27] churches, your Baptists, your reform [06:30] style churches that are reading uh the [06:32] Christian post. And so I'm trying to [06:34] write with that in mind. And so I I laid [06:37] out this argument previously in Jeremiah [06:39] that I thought was pretty [06:41] hermeneutically sound, pretty loctite, [06:44] but I got a lot of flack for it. And the [06:47] biggest piece that I got was, well, [06:48] you're not using the New Testament. [06:50] Obviously, there are some things here uh [06:52] in the New Testament that are [06:54] significant that change the way we look [06:56] at certain things uh in the Old [06:58] Testament. So, I said, I'm just going to [07:02] make a case for Israel's inclusion, [07:05] redemption, uh continued covenant from [07:08] the book of Acts. The book of Acts is [07:10] about the establishment of the church. [07:12] It's G it begins with Jesus's ascension [07:14] into heaven and a conversation he has [07:17] with his disciples that sets the tone [07:19] for the entire rest of the book. And so [07:22] in the very beginning of the book of [07:23] Acts, Jesus has been uh we just came [07:26] through Easter. He's been crucified, [07:28] buried, resurrected, and he spends the [07:31] days leading up to the day of Pentecost, [07:33] up to the great feast of Pentecost, the [07:35] Jewish feast that they were all [07:36] celebrating together. And on the great [07:39] day of the feast, this uh powerful [07:42] encounter where we believe that God uh [07:44] poured his spirit out on 120 uh of his [07:47] followers in the upper room and [07:48] commissioned them to take his good news [07:51] to the whole world. But in the beginning [07:54] of all of that, before that whole event [07:56] happens, Jesus spends uh 50 days hanging [08:01] out with his disciples that they are [08:05] taught and they are wi with the fully [08:08] resurrected Jesus on the earth. And if [08:11] anybody should have had their theology [08:12] correct and straight at that point, it [08:14] should have been them. you're hanging [08:16] out with uh you know the resurrected [08:19] Lord and he's teaching you and the very [08:23] first question that's recorded in the [08:25] book of Acts as he's getting ready to [08:26] ascend into heaven and these angels [08:28] appear the disciples ask him Lord is it [08:31] at this time you're going to restore the [08:33] kingdom to Israel he's been teaching [08:35] them for 50 days and the best part is is [08:38] Jesus doesn't correct the question Jesus [08:42] answers the question by saying it's not [08:44] for you to know the times times or [08:45] season and when the father's going to do [08:47] that. Essentially, he doesn't say, [08:48] "Israel is not important anymore. Don't [08:50] you guys realize I've come? I've been [08:51] teaching you the last 50 days." He [08:53] doesn't say, "I'm about to send you guys [08:55] out and the church is going to replace [08:56] Israel. Why are you asking such a silly [08:58] question?" He's been teaching them for [09:00] 50 days in resurrected form. And the [09:02] question they asked before he ascends, [09:05] "Lord, is it now that you're going to [09:07] reestablish the kingdom and and fulfill [09:09] all the promises of the prophets?" And [09:11] he says, "It's not for you to know the [09:13] time. It's coming." He he again he [09:15] doesn't correct the premise. He doesn't [09:16] correct anything else. And that's the [09:18] way the book of Acts begins is with [09:20] these disciples who've been taught for [09:22] 50 days by the resurrected Lord asking [09:24] him if he's going to restore the kingdom [09:26] to Israel and him not dismissing the [09:28] question, saying, "Look, you got the [09:29] question right, but the timing is [09:30] wrong." [09:31] Well, wouldn't a supersessionist argue [09:34] that Israel [09:38] is I mean this is their whole argument [09:40] that in certain contexts Israel really [09:43] just means the church and Jesus [09:45] ambiguous answer saying it's not for you [09:47] to know the time could have been saying [09:50] it's going to mean something else. I [09:51] mean I I could see let's put it this way [09:53] if I'm a super sessionist you haven't [09:55] checkmated me with your argument yet. [09:57] >> Correct. Sure. And I in the comments to [10:00] some of this uh I I saw some of those uh [10:04] they go and quote Paul and they go and [10:05] quote a couple different other areas. [10:07] But the very next thing that happens is [10:09] Jesus ascends into heaven and the angels [10:12] reaffirm to everyone that hey the same [10:15] way that you're seeing him go, he's [10:17] going to come back to this same place. [10:18] So geographically, not not only is the [10:21] question and the premise correct, but [10:24] then the next thing that happens is he [10:26] ascends and the angels say, "Hey, this [10:27] place is really important. He's coming [10:29] back to this place." They they tie him [10:31] to a geography, not just historically, [10:34] but in a future sense. So not just what [10:37] he taught and where he was from and what [10:38] you know that Judaism happened to be the [10:40] vehicle that God chose to use. No, he's [10:43] coming back to this same location to [10:45] Jerusalem and and from here is going to [10:49] uh you know rule and reign and and all [10:51] that comes at the end of the book of [10:53] Revelation. But the the angels tie him [10:54] to that. And then the very next thing is [10:57] the day of Pentecost, a Jewish feast in [11:00] a Jewish city with Jewish followers [11:03] talking about a Jewish holiday. And God [11:06] takes that uh that that day and makes it [11:09] a special day for the church that ties [11:12] it all the way back to the roots of the [11:14] law and the Torah and everything that uh [11:17] Moses established there on Mount Si [11:19] during the day of Pentecost. And that [11:21] theme carries for the next 28 chapters. [11:24] When you get to the Jerusalem Council, [11:26] when you get to uh in Acts 15 and and [11:29] several other places where Peter [11:30] preaches and where other people preach, [11:32] they continue to tie back to the [11:34] promises of the prophet and all that [11:36] God's going to do. They there's never a [11:39] moment in the book of Acts where well, [11:42] you know what that Israel stuff just [11:43] forget it. We we have a new thing that [11:45] we're doing here. Even in Acts 10 when [11:48] Peter has the dream that the Gentiles [11:51] are going to come into the fold and are [11:53] going to be included, he has this dream [11:55] and and God presents to him all of these [11:58] uh unclean animals and tells him to eat. [12:01] And he's absolutely appalled that God [12:05] that God's telling him to do this. Why? [12:06] Because he kept kosher because he was [12:08] Jewish. And and to me, that's the thing [12:11] that, you know, as people read the text, [12:14] so many Christians are, as we said on [12:16] our last episode, are reading it and [12:18] they're superimposing a modern theology [12:22] onto an ancient text instead of letting [12:23] the text say what it said and and seeing [12:25] it for what it is. And so, there were so [12:27] many of those little nuggets and and in [12:29] a thousand words, I couldn't give a [12:30] dissertation on the 28 chapters of the [12:32] book of Acts, but I tried to pull those [12:35] little spots where it's like, guys, this [12:36] is so obvious. Israel's included. It's [12:39] all about the redemption. It's about [12:40] coming back to Jerusalem. And so I [12:43] that's the case I made. Um it didn't uh [12:46] didn't get as much flak as the other [12:48] ones, but there were some folks there [12:49] were several folks that shared it was [12:50] like, "Thank you. This was so helpful." [12:53] Uh I did get a lot more actual positive [12:55] traction with it. And so I'm pro I'm [12:58] probably gonna tackle uh and try and do [13:01] it with a few more of the New Testament [13:02] books just because I if that if that's [13:05] what it takes to get people to spin and [13:07] think differently. All right, let me if [13:09] that if that's your argument against me [13:11] using Zachchariah or against me using [13:13] Amos. Okay, fine. Let's use your text [13:16] and and I'll prove it to you from there. [13:18] You know, it all this makes me think [13:21] that, [13:23] you know, the whole argument the [13:24] supersessionists make about how, you [13:28] know, the promises have been transferred [13:29] and that the the actual physical [13:32] restoration of the Jewish people to the [13:34] land of Israel is has been is not [13:37] actually going to happen and it's not [13:39] really it's no long that promise is no [13:41] longer in force. And they they then base [13:43] it on all sorts of interpretations of [13:46] verses in the New Testament and saying, [13:47] "Well, this this time it says Israel, [13:49] it's actually referring to the church [13:50] and this time it's, you know, this time [13:52] it's not. And this and when it says the [13:54] land, it doesn't really mean the land. [13:56] When it says the Jewish people, it [13:57] doesn't, you know, and these are all [13:58] interpretations. And it all begs the [14:00] question that the restoration of the [14:02] Jewish people to the land of Israel is [14:04] not just another prophecy. It's not just [14:06] another promise. It is the throughine of [14:10] the entire Hebrew Bible. It is the most [14:13] repeated prophecy [14:15] by far. I mean by far in the entire [14:18] Bible. It's kind of the story of the [14:19] Bible over and over and over again. So I [14:22] you know if you instead of getting into [14:24] the minutia of this or that [14:26] interpretation of this or that verse, [14:28] there's a big question that these guys [14:30] can't really answer, which is hold on a [14:32] second. If the entire Hebrew Bible is [14:35] saturated with this single promise being [14:38] repeated over and over and over and over [14:40] again, especially when you get into the [14:41] prophets just non-stop. [14:44] If that was actually revoked, [14:48] I if God's intention with the coming of [14:50] Jesus was to change that, don't you [14:53] think that he would have expressed that [14:57] explicitly at least once just to say it [15:01] outright instead of leaving it up to [15:05] disputed interpretations? Meaning, if [15:06] that if like the again, it's not just [15:09] another prophecy. If he if if that was [15:12] being negated, don't you think he would [15:14] have just come outright and said it? [15:16] These promises no longer apply to the [15:17] Jewish people. Just come out and say it. [15:19] Especially because you have all the [15:20] passages in the writings of Paul that [15:22] say just the opposite as we know we've [15:24] talked about many times in the book of [15:25] Romans. You have it in Ephesians as [15:27] well. The the you know where where it he [15:29] actually kind of says that the Jews are [15:31] you know salvation is of the Jews and [15:33] the grafting and all of that. You know [15:35] is God trying to be deceptive? Like I [15:37] mean it kind of like begs the question [15:38] it's this is not about a particular [15:40] interpretation but it's like why like in [15:42] other words the supersessionist would [15:45] have to give a legitimate answer to that [15:47] question like okay let's say you're [15:50] right that it was all revoked what [15:54] why wasn't why didn't he tell us that [15:56] you know [15:57] >> exactly [15:57] >> and that's and I think it's fascinating [16:00] too when you get in another article I've [16:02] had on the back burner for a little bit [16:03] that I'll uh hopefully release at some [16:06] point in the not too distant future is [16:08] when you get into these conversations [16:10] with uh supersessionist replacement [16:12] theology folks, you end up all of the [16:15] curses are literal and on Israel and all [16:20] of the blessings are applied to the [16:22] church. [16:23] >> So it's very fascinating. [16:25] >> Meaning it's selective, it's selective [16:27] replacement theology, [16:28] >> right? In the same verse where God will [16:31] say this is going to happen to you if [16:33] you don't do this and then this will [16:34] happen if you do do this. We go, "Well, [16:36] we're going to take that blessing, but [16:37] the curse, I mean, the Jews obviously [16:39] missed it. They get the curse. We're [16:40] going to take the blessing." And you [16:42] could see that repeated again and again [16:44] and again. And I'm I go, "You you can't [16:46] hermeneutically. You can't split a [16:48] verse. Like, you can't cut it in half [16:50] and apply this half to these people and [16:52] this half to those people." And so I I'm [16:54] working on an article on that as well [16:56] because I think if you're going to say [16:58] that the curses are all there and and [17:01] they miss Jesus and therefore all of [17:03] this is applied to them, well then the [17:05] blessings and the restoration have to be [17:06] applied because they're literally in the [17:08] same paragraph. They're in the same [17:09] verses and context. You can't separate [17:12] that and not say that the culmination [17:14] then of all things uh is going to be [17:16] their restoration and fulfillment and [17:18] Israel established. [17:19] >> Yeah. You know, Doug, between you [17:21] writing that and and the piece that I [17:23] wrote in the Jerusalem Post about [17:24] Catholics a few weeks ago, which got a [17:27] lot of I got a lot of feedback. I got a [17:29] lot of uh you know, I was talking about [17:31] why this new trend among cath among what [17:34] are called traditional Catholics who [17:36] view them who who even reject Vatican 2, [17:39] who are now saying that the Jews of [17:40] today aren't the Jews and their whole [17:41] temper tantrum that they're throwing. I [17:43] think this all speaks to the big issue [17:45] and you and I have talked about this so [17:47] many times. Every listener to this [17:48] podcast has heard us talk about this [17:50] that there is, you know, among the many [17:52] upheavalss that we're living through in [17:54] our in our time. One of the things we're [17:56] living through is a major existential [17:59] uh crisis for some for for others it's [18:02] it's it's beautiful and to be celebrated [18:04] and sing hallelujah, but it's a major [18:06] existential crisis for Christianity [18:08] across all denominations and and the [18:11] question of the Jews in Israel because [18:13] of how foundational it is in everything [18:15] you're talking about. I mean, if you [18:17] read the New Testament and the question [18:18] of the relationship of Jews to Gentiles [18:21] within within the family of believers in [18:24] Jesus is a fundamental central question. [18:27] It's it's touched on throughout the New [18:29] Testament and how to uni which side of [18:33] the argument you come down on and how to [18:34] understand the relationship of [18:36] Christians to the Jewish people. Um, it [18:38] it it strikes at the core of what it [18:41] means to be a Christian, what it means [18:43] to be someone who believes in Jesus. [18:44] It's it's not it's not just another [18:46] theological question. And I think that [18:48] that the the success of the state of [18:49] Israel, the current state of affairs, uh [18:52] and you see this the way that Paul the [18:54] way that this theological issue has [18:57] become such a flash point in the [18:59] political discourse right now really [19:02] speaks to the fact that this is and it's [19:04] great that you're writing this about, [19:05] you know, with the New Testament and [19:06] Jerry McDermott of course wrote his, you [19:08] know, wrote a whole book making a New [19:09] Testament argument for, you know, for [19:11] Christian Zionism. It's very important. [19:14] Um, and there's others, you know, Brad [19:16] Young has done a lot of great work in [19:17] this area talking about the, you know, [19:19] the Jewishness of Paul and the [19:20] Jewishness of Jesus. And these questions [19:23] really are they're not separated from [19:26] the politics. And I don't know, I don't [19:28] know what it looks like on the other [19:30] side of this, but there's but there's [19:32] clearly a, you know, there have been [19:34] other ruptures in the church since since [19:36] uh since the time of Jesus. Judaism has [19:39] had its own ruptures and splits [19:40] throughout our history where we've had [19:42] breakaways whether Sadducees, Pharisees [19:43] is is goes back to temple times, but [19:45] there's been other ones. I I think [19:47] there's a major rupture in the church [19:49] that is that is going on right now that [19:51] we're that we're just in the middle of. [19:53] We're in the eye of the storm of and uh [19:56] and and you know, here on this podcast, [19:58] you know, we are you know, you know, [20:00] we're living on the front lines of that [20:02] argue. [20:03] >> Absolutely. And uh I'm going to continue [20:05] to write those things which I believe [20:06] and I and I think it's important for the [20:09] church to wrestle through that [20:11] biblically. You can have your opinions, [20:12] you can have your geopolitics, you can [20:14] like Netanyahu, not like Netanyahu, but [20:16] the Bible's the Bible and it's been that [20:18] way for thousands of years. And our job [20:20] is not to read our preferences into it, [20:22] but it's to let the text speak. And I [20:24] think that's so important for uh our [20:26] Christian listeners because we all have [20:28] our opinions and we have the things that [20:29] we've been raised in. Uh but it's so [20:31] important to go back to the heart and [20:33] the language and the root of why God [20:35] said what he said and did what he did. [20:37] Um because it speaks to the character of [20:38] God and the God that we claim to worship [20:40] through Jesus. Uh I I want to know that [20:43] God fully truly uh clearly and the only [20:47] way I can do that is through the text [20:48] and allowing him to speak through that [20:51] text. [20:52] >> Amen. Beautiful. Well, there's lots [20:54] going on in the world and we have our [20:57] friend uh joining us uh for a little [21:00] update on the Middle East. I mean, [21:02] there's not I guess there's some things. [21:03] There's not much to talk about in the [21:04] Middle East. It's not like the entire US [21:07] Navy's there and all of that, but uh [21:09] Pesok, why don't you bring Elliot on in [21:11] and let's let's talk some Middle East [21:13] conflict. [21:14] >> All right. To our to the [21:15] shoulder-to-shoulder audience, [21:16] obviously, this man needs no [21:18] introduction. Major uh Reserve Major [21:21] Elliot Cho, who is al also uh the the [21:24] host of Conflict Uncovered, a podcast [21:26] you have to listen to. If you really [21:27] want to understand uh if you're nerdy [21:29] enough to really want to understand [21:31] what's going on in the Middle East, you [21:32] got to listen to Conflict Uncovered. [21:34] Elliot is an expert in all things Middle [21:36] East, including the history. Uh uh he's [21:39] uh he's been a a lecturer in many, many [21:42] contexts for a very long time. Many [21:43] people rely on him, as do we. I don't [21:46] know if I have to go through the whole [21:47] bio every time. Elliot, but Elliot, [21:49] please don't. [21:50] >> All right, welcome back to Shoulderto [21:51] Shoulders. So, Elliot, we have now [21:53] >> to get back. Wait, wait, wait. Before [21:54] you ask, I got to throw in my two I have [21:57] to put in my two cents on the on the end [21:59] of the last conversation that I heard. [22:01] I'll really do it in like two sentences. [22:04] You know, I I I've studied [22:05] anti-semitism. I'm co-authoring a book [22:07] on it. It's it's as usual books take [22:10] longer than planned. But one of the [22:12] things that we have learned, my [22:14] co-author and I, and have concluded, and [22:17] this may actually uh speak to both what [22:20] you, Doug, and and what you pass up were [22:22] saying, is that anti-semitism, Jew [22:26] hatred is the starting point, not the [22:28] end point. In other words, if you if you [22:31] start from there, you find all the [22:34] explanations you want. And if it means [22:36] splitting verses, if it means saying the [22:39] Jews are simultaneously the bankers and [22:41] the communists or whatever it is that it [22:44] just doesn't fit logically, you'd say, [22:46] "Well, if I were using those to conclude [22:49] to come to the conclusion of [22:50] anti-semitism, it wouldn't work." But if [22:52] I start from hating the Jews, everything [22:55] works. [22:57] >> No, it's a good point. [22:59] >> Oh, yeah. Yeah. And that's and that's [23:02] very interesting point. A a lot of what [23:03] you're what you're saying, Elliott, is [23:05] actually very deep, which is that the [23:06] cause and effect is reversed in people's [23:08] minds. It's not because people have bad [23:10] theology, they hate the Jews. It's [23:12] because they hate the Jews, they develop [23:13] bad theology. [23:15] >> Correct. [23:17] >> All right, Elliot, we're going to pivot [23:18] to the Middle East. There's there's [23:20] obviously a ton going on. And, you know, [23:23] I I'm always pointing out that, you [23:25] know, Trump's uh unpredictability [23:28] is a doctrine. It's something that he [23:30] talked about ever since he first [23:32] campaigned for president. Uh there's a [23:34] great speech he gave in April of 2016 [23:37] where he there's a whole section of the [23:38] speech where he talks about the need [23:40] when dealing with adversaries, not not [23:42] when dealing with everyone in the [23:43] foreign stage, but when dealing with [23:44] adversaries, there's a need to be [23:46] unpredictable. It's clearly driving the [23:49] Iranians nuts because they're they're [23:51] used to being they're used to being the [23:53] the sneaky, unpredictable ones who know [23:56] how to negotiate their way out of a [23:57] paper bag and and Trump is bamboozling [24:00] them. Uh and now we have a situation [24:02] where Trump is trying to open the [24:04] Straits of Hormuz and then when the [24:06] Iranians refuse, he says, "Okay, I'll [24:07] just close them up myself." [24:10] >> Tell us what's going on. Make us smart [24:12] about what we're looking at downrange. [24:15] Okay. So, first of all, um I agree with [24:17] you for Trump at least the [24:20] unpredictability is um is a method. [24:24] I am not sure that the [24:28] short-term erratic movement is method as [24:31] much as it is personality, but the two [24:33] go together. [24:36] Um he's trying to [24:40] uh do the impossible of of the the [24:43] Yiddish phrase, you can't dance [24:46] simultaneously at multiple weddings. [24:48] He's trying to dance at multiple [24:50] weddings simultaneously. [24:52] >> What do you mean? [24:53] >> Okay, so first of all, he's got there's [24:55] the Iran issue and this comes back um to [24:59] what we were saying earlier about [25:00] anti-semitism. The anti-semmites will [25:01] say, you know, it's all about Israel. [25:03] Let Israel do it itself. It's not our [25:05] war. Uh he's known for decades that that [25:08] Iran is an issue. He's he's on record [25:10] for decades. Uh and for good reason. And [25:14] he's going after them now. This is for [25:17] sure. [25:19] At the same time, and he's and he's [25:21] beaten along with with Israel handinand [25:24] beaten them up badly. [25:27] At the same time, he's facing domestic [25:30] issues. [25:31] Uh he's got a a midterm coming up. He's [25:34] got a party that's split in part because [25:38] of its anti-semitic fringe, in part [25:40] because of simple mis misunderstanding [25:42] of uh international relations strategy [25:45] and foreign policy. Uh, I'm I'm very [25:49] much in favor of the idea of not getting [25:52] involved in endless wars. Certainly not [25:55] in wars that are fighting other people's [25:58] uh other people's battles when they have [26:00] no impact on you. Um, but the United [26:06] States is a global power. It has [26:08] interests around the world. And this [26:10] idea that you can lock yourself up and [26:12] and shut, you know, shut the gate, so to [26:15] speak, uh it's not a city-state of of [26:18] medieval times. And even then, it was [26:20] difficult to do it. So, [26:23] he's got a constituency that's not that [26:25] that's not with him. Um he's trying to [26:30] maintain a timetable that I say is is mo [26:33] I'm talking about a short-term [26:35] timetable, a daily timetable that's [26:37] affected by two totally irrelevant but [26:40] critical factors. One is the CNN news [26:43] cycle. And when I say CNN, I mean the [26:47] whole fast food news business, all of [26:48] them. And the other is the Dow, the the [26:51] Dow Jones Industrial Average. In other [26:53] words, those two things are having a [26:55] huge impact on his short-term decision-m [26:58] and we're seeing that as well. Uh now [27:01] there's there's stuff that's not clear [27:03] that this two week or maybe not too weak [27:05] or we'll see the Iranians rejected the [27:08] offer. Uh but the pause if it was simply [27:12] done to give the Iranians a chance to [27:15] rethink it was a strategic error. They [27:18] are taking advantage of it. And there's [27:21] an old saying in strategy, nothing good [27:23] ever comes from a pause, [27:26] and we've seen that here historically [27:29] over and over again. On the other hand, [27:31] and I don't know this, I've seen [27:32] reports, but I I have not confirmation [27:35] that the US forces needed a break for a [27:38] whole bunch of logistical personnel [27:41] reasons and that sort of thing. If [27:43] that's the reason, 100%, you know, the [27:46] right right decision to make. Sometimes [27:47] you do have to stop and take a breath [27:49] and get everybody back everybody [27:51] physically and and and logistically back [27:53] online. So, we're in this kind of middle [27:58] space. [27:59] Um I think he's surprised [28:03] at the determination of the Iranians. [28:05] anybody's familiar with radical [28:09] ideologies and I'm I'm intentionally not [28:11] saying radical Islamic because radical [28:12] ideology doesn't have to be religious [28:15] and it doesn't have to be Islamic uh [28:17] cenote Hitler cenote Imperial Japan that [28:21] you cannot convince them rationally to [28:25] quit because quitting is the end of them [28:29] other words you can't negotiate the [28:31] Iranian leadership out of its position [28:33] it's death as far as they're concerned [28:36] and they're not giving in. You've also [28:39] got once again radical ideological [28:42] leadership. Doesn't care about its [28:44] population, doesn't care about its [28:46] population's well-being. All those [28:48] threats that would normally work in any [28:52] sort of a system where the government [28:55] has even an iota of sense of [28:57] responsibility simply is not going to [28:59] work here. So, I think he he and Witoff [29:03] and and friends are still feeling their [29:04] way on that, although they're learning [29:06] for sure. Um, but they're still going to [29:10] try and I I'll finish this off with with [29:14] a sentence and to a certain extent it's [29:15] good that they're trying. It would be [29:16] nice to be able to negotiate this away. [29:19] The problem is it won't work. [29:22] >> Yeah. So Elliot, one of the refrains [29:25] we're hearing in the media is that [29:27] actually Israel and the US is losing. [29:31] This has been uh an absolute [29:33] catastrophe. Give us a sense of what the [29:36] military victories have been. What was [29:39] Iran's capacity 2 months ago and what is [29:42] their capacity today? What has actually [29:44] been done on the ground? What has been [29:46] destroyed? What is uh the state of [29:49] affairs in Iran? [29:51] All right, let let me do this sort of [29:52] layer by layer. Uh the first the [29:56] tactical operational their navy no [29:58] longer exists for all intents and [29:59] purposes. It's reduced to a bunch of [30:01] fast boats which are dangerous in the [30:02] straits of Hormuz but have no real value [30:05] outside of there. What little air force [30:08] they had no longer exists. What few air [30:12] defenses were left after the previous [30:14] campaigns are gone. And here I I just [30:18] want to be clear on something. I'm [30:19] speaking in military terms, not in [30:22] absolute terms. Okay? So, yes, they [30:25] might have an occasional missile like [30:27] the the one that took brought down the [30:29] F-15 a couple of weeks ago. Uh that's [30:32] not a military threat. That that's an [30:34] off offhanded offshot chance. Uh [30:38] >> and apparently apparently it was also it [30:41] was a mobile missile. It was a it was a [30:43] it was a shoulder missile. [30:45] >> Right. So again, it's not zero, but in [30:48] military terms, it's zero. If you're [30:49] flying thousands of sordies a day and [30:52] you've been doing it for over a month [30:54] and one plane was shot down and then [30:56] okay, then then the A-10 was was damaged [30:58] in the in the rescue operation. Uh [31:01] that's not military anti-aircraft [31:04] capability. [31:06] Uh that's nowhere near that. So that's [31:09] on that level. their nuclear [31:14] uh capabilities badly damaged in the [31:16] earlier rounds, further damaged in this [31:18] one. But that story is not over yet, [31:21] which is why it's still a sticking point [31:22] in in negotiations. Uh but it's a [31:25] setback. I'll come back to the idea of [31:27] setback in a moment because it's very [31:28] important here as well. their ballistic [31:31] missile capability tremendously reduced [31:33] which is why what we've see what we saw [31:35] in Israel up until the ceasefire and if [31:38] if we go back to it we're going to [31:40] probably see it again next week the week [31:43] after if things start up again is once [31:47] again in military terms harassment [31:51] firing two or three missiles at Tel Aviv [31:54] is harassment that doesn't mean they're [31:55] not they're not dangerous and it doesn't [31:57] mean they don't cause damage if they get [31:58] through and if when pieces fall and and [32:01] cause casualties. But given that the [32:04] first time around they were firing [32:07] between 80 and 100 missiles at a time, [32:11] they don't have that. They can do it [32:14] twice, three times. I don't know exactly [32:16] how many they've got, but they can't do [32:19] that with any sustainability. And what [32:21] they would rather do correctly [32:23] strategically is fire five a day or six [32:26] a day at Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, and Kyifa, [32:30] harass millions of Israelis in the [32:32] process, [32:34] uh, and be able to do it essentially [32:37] indefinitely because if they have 200 [32:39] missiles, they can do that over a [32:42] two-month period and get away with it. [32:46] And that shows how badly that's been [32:49] damaged. Having said all of and now I'm [32:51] sorry one other layer their production [32:53] capability military and uh I'll call it [32:57] protomilitary [32:58] has been heavily damaged. military in [33:00] the sense of missile production, drone [33:03] production plants, uh missile fuel [33:07] production and so on. But [33:09] protoamililitary [33:11] uh prochemicals, [33:13] metal work and that sort of thing, which [33:16] are not exclusively military [33:20] industries, but they are the primary [33:23] industries that send the raw materials [33:25] to the military industries. uh all of [33:28] that has been very heavily damaged. [33:30] Having said that, one of the things that [33:32] was learned in World War II by the the [33:34] strategic bombing of Germany is that a [33:37] country that's up and running can [33:39] rebuild very very quickly. [33:42] >> Yep. [33:44] Yeah. That's where we look, this is this [33:47] speaks to the whole question of [33:51] like you were saying before how how the [33:52] Americans are learning but they don't [33:55] quite get it yet. And you know, you [33:58] know, Trump repeats like a mantra. They [34:02] have no navy. They have no air defenses. [34:04] We've destroyed them. We've defeated [34:05] them. There there's nothing left. And [34:09] and the Iranians, [34:11] and they're not kidding, they're [34:12] serious, [34:14] really view this as a victory because [34:16] the because the shooting stopped and [34:18] they're still in power because they [34:20] don't care like like you said, because [34:21] they don't care about their people. And [34:22] that's why I'm very skeptical about [34:24] like, oh, we're going to start bombing [34:25] their civilian infrastructure. Like, [34:27] they don't care. All they care about is [34:30] that they remain in power. And that's [34:32] why I I I think the that's why I led [34:35] this conversation with you, Elliot, with [34:37] the Straits of Hormuz because it seems [34:41] uh and I watch this very very closely [34:43] and I and I make a point of reading [34:45] Iranian state media every day, both [34:47] Tasnim and Wana. I want to get, you [34:48] know, there's different state media [34:50] outlets. Um, Wana is a little more [34:53] analytical. Tessim is IRGC, you know, [34:57] newsletter and [34:58] >> right [34:59] >> and they've been kind of, you know, very [35:01] smug the whole war. But with this [35:04] hormuse thing over the last 24 hours, [35:06] they seem to be panicking. They're [35:08] freaking out over this. And maybe we're [35:10] finally seeing something that actually [35:12] like, let me let me say this another [35:14] way. Our definition of victory [35:17] can't ignore their definition of victory [35:20] or our definition of their defeat has to [35:23] be consistent with how they would view [35:24] it. And and that's where I think the [35:26] Americans aren't quite there yet. [35:30] >> First of all, absolutely I agree with [35:32] you. Uh let's keep in mind that closing [35:34] the straits to Iranian shipping also is [35:39] a swipe at China. [35:42] Well, there's a there's a lot going on [35:44] in in in that package. And if Iran can't [35:47] supply China with oil, China has no use [35:50] for Iran. [35:54] So there there's a lot going on there as [35:56] well. I I do want to come back to [35:57] something that you mentioned though. I [35:59] think that the targeting of what's [36:02] called civilian infrastructure, I I [36:04] don't like that terminology because it's [36:07] not purely civilian. It has other [36:10] there's been a lot about this and I [36:11] think it's important to say bombing [36:14] something that is purely civilian for [36:16] the for the purpose of causing harm to [36:19] the civilian population is a war crime. [36:22] However, there are many things [36:24] particularly [36:26] communications [36:27] uh transportation [36:30] infrastructure which are multi-purpose. [36:33] they include military. Uh, and here [36:35] again, you know, World War II provides [36:37] all the great examples in in the the [36:40] months leading up to D-Day, the Allies [36:43] bombed the French rail system to [36:45] oblivion in order to be able to prevent [36:48] the Germans from reinforcing the the [36:50] front in in Normandy. So, the rail [36:54] system is ostensibly civilian except [36:56] that all major troop and and and [36:59] logistics movement was done by rail. I'm [37:02] looking at another element to this and [37:04] that is that by isolating areas of Iran [37:09] and and here particularly bridges [37:12] because you know if you take out a [37:13] bridge it's hard to go around. If you [37:15] take if you destroy a road it can be [37:18] filled in and and made usable very very [37:21] quickly in relative terms. But by [37:23] isolating segments of Iran uh from [37:27] Thran, [37:28] it improves the chances of the hopeful [37:32] uprising that hopefully will occur [37:36] after all of this is after the military [37:38] aspects of this are over and will make [37:40] it very difficult for the IRGC and the [37:42] Basie to get from one place to the [37:45] other. It increases the chances that a [37:47] local uprising I'm making up places now, [37:50] right? in Isvahan for example will not [37:52] be put down because they won't be able [37:54] to move force from terror on to there [37:57] >> and I think that has a strategic value [37:59] as well but it's that that that's my [38:02] projection analysis not not a prediction [38:06] >> I wonder it's been something I feel like [38:09] since the beginning whether it was Prime [38:10] Minister Netanyahu or whether it was [38:12] President Trump you know telling people [38:14] hey stay inside we're coming [38:16] >> and we'll tell you when to come outside [38:18] and there were people trying to guessed [38:20] that uh BB was, you know, telegraphing [38:22] that they, hey, this Friday you guys [38:25] should come out and and do your thing [38:27] and and there was all kinds of [38:28] speculation and the pundits said what [38:30] they were going to say. Do you see that [38:32] as a as a viable endgame here? Do you [38:35] really feel like the Iranian people are [38:38] going to rise up and take control of [38:40] their country? [38:42] >> First of all, it's something I think [38:43] we'd all like to see. Uh will they do it [38:47] here? Here here I I'll give you the [38:49] difficulties. Um first of all I would be [38:52] shocked. [38:53] >> Let me just add to the question. Let me [38:55] just add to the question before you [38:56] finish answering. Will they do it [38:58] without a ground operation by either the [39:01] US or the Israelis? Let's let's let's [39:03] add that to the mix. Go ahead. [39:05] >> Okay. So So I can't answer the will. [39:07] I'll answer can. They can do it without [39:09] a ground operation. [39:11] >> Okay. As as a matter of fact, I I would [39:13] like to see it happen without a ground [39:15] operation. I'm uh I I think that what [39:19] was done in both Iraq and Afghanistan [39:22] uh at least certainly in the followup [39:26] was disastrous and it all falls under [39:30] the category of what I call you broke [39:31] it, you bought it. U okay now again [39:36] America the allies did that to Germany [39:38] in World War II. They did the Americans [39:40] did it to Japan in World War II but went [39:42] in there saying we broke it, we bought [39:44] it. we're going to put it back together [39:46] again and we're going to own it until we [39:48] put it back together again and and and [39:50] give it back to you. That was way [39:52] upfront with occupation and occupation [39:55] forces and the like here. The problem is [39:59] that and it it's it's an analytical [40:01] problem. I'm not I I'm not questioning [40:03] the the moral issue here. The [40:08] and I'll use Iraq as as as the bad [40:10] model. It was we're not doing this to [40:13] conquer Iraq. we're doing to liberate [40:15] the Iraqi people from the horrendous [40:18] regime of Saddam Hussein, which is fine. [40:20] That's wonderful. But once you've gotten [40:22] rid of the regime, are you an occupier? [40:26] The answer is yes, but no. But yes, but [40:28] no. And and that that sort of unclear [40:31] status leads to the merry mess that we [40:34] saw there for for the years after. [40:38] the population needs to overthrow the [40:40] government. Whether [40:43] it with if it will it the answer is I [40:46] don't know. I'll hear here pros and cons [40:49] to the argument. There is no central [40:52] opposition in Iran. [40:55] Okay. Now the good news to that is it [40:57] means that the IRGC and the based have [40:59] nobody to go after [41:02] on the other hand because right so so [41:04] there's a resiliency [41:07] on the other hand the absence of a [41:09] coordinated centralized opposition means [41:12] that it's less powerful [41:14] it means that the that an uprising needs [41:17] to have more spontaneity to it [41:20] than I would like in if as a strategist [41:24] but as I said but But if if it had been [41:26] decapitated, that wouldn't wouldn't help [41:28] either. So there there's a lot of [41:32] variance here of I don't know because [41:34] what needs to happen now in practical [41:36] terms is this mass that's known as the [41:40] people needs to somehow coalesce [41:44] and somehow get together and somehow [41:47] rise up. Now it's possible. It's not an [41:50] impossibility. It's just harder to [41:52] predict. [41:54] It's the um it's the shift [41:58] I'll use American domestic terms between [42:01] a mob and a riot. [42:04] Okay. At what point does a mob become a [42:07] riot? There's a lot of literature. [42:08] Nobody's got a really good answer to it. [42:12] Okay? Because it's not something that's [42:13] or an organized demonstration that's [42:15] driven. So that's that's number one. [42:17] Number two is the question of will it [42:20] succeed? And I think that part of what [42:22] we're seeing in terms of the operations [42:25] that were up until the the ceasefire, [42:28] both Israeli and American, was to weaken [42:31] the regime, its infrastructure, its [42:34] control infrastructure as much as [42:37] possible so that if and hopefully when [42:41] there is an uprising, it has the [42:42] greatest chance of success because I [42:46] think I've mentioned it on on to to you [42:48] guys and I'll if I'll say Yet again, uh, [42:51] one of Elliot's iron laws is that these [42:53] things work when the the rebels have [42:55] more people willing to die than the [42:57] regime is is willing and able to kill. [43:00] This regime is willing to kill [43:01] everybody. And that means its ability to [43:04] do it needs to be reduced below the [43:07] level of of the willingness to sacrifice [43:10] of the people. [43:11] >> Can I throw one more thing in here? We [43:13] haven't talked about the Gulf States, [43:15] Saudi Arabia, Oman, uh, all of them, [43:19] UAE, and Turkey has started hitting the [43:22] news with some things that, uh, Erdogan [43:25] has said about them sending an army to [43:29] Israel. And I I've read a couple of [43:31] different articles here. And whether [43:33] it's late night tweets or if he's [43:36] getting his Trump on or if he actually [43:37] means what he's saying, I don't know. So [43:40] what's happening with the Gulf States [43:42] and Turkey and some of the other Muslim [43:44] Arab countries? [43:47] >> Okay, the Gulf States have been [43:49] convinced graphically that Iran Iran is [43:52] not only not their friend, but can't be [43:54] trusted by standing on the sidelines, [43:57] they can't count on being left out of [44:00] the picture. So they have become [44:04] essentially enemies [44:07] in practice as opposed to simply in [44:09] potential. Uh leave Qatar aside for a [44:13] moment. Qatar is a little more [44:15] problematic. But but having said that in [44:18] the mix from Kuwait all the way down to [44:21] to the Emirates and everybody in between [44:24] u they see Iran and and and Saudi Arabia [44:27] of course they see Iran as an active [44:29] enemy. what they can do about it is [44:32] extremely limited. [44:35] They don't have real armies. [44:38] They do have air forces, but they can't [44:41] do it alone. And frankly, uh, knowing [44:44] the coordination level between the [44:46] Israeli Air Force and the US air powers [44:50] because here, let's also remember the [44:51] United States doesn't have just an air [44:53] force. The United States has four air [44:56] forces [44:57] and they don't normally talk to each [44:59] other. [45:02] So there's one level of coordination [45:04] between branches. I'm overstating it, [45:06] but not by much. Between branches of the [45:08] United States, right? The Air Force, the [45:11] Navy, the Army, and the Marine Corps [45:15] and the Israeli Air Force. Now, you've [45:17] got to keep in mind, you've got hundreds [45:18] upon hundreds upon hundreds of combat [45:20] aircraft flying over this battle zone in [45:25] small, relatively small groups. This is [45:27] not World War II of thousand bomber [45:30] raids sweeping in formation over over [45:33] Europe. This is groups of two, four, six [45:36] planes zipping along at close to 1,000 [45:39] miles per hour. And nobody shot at each [45:42] other. Nobody's collided with each [45:44] other. The the only one was two American [45:46] planes because I think there there was a [45:48] a coordination mess up on the on the [45:51] planning side, on the air traffic side. [45:53] Not it wasn't the pilot's fault. Uh, the [45:56] coordination is incredible. It's superb. [45:59] It's outstanding. I'm not a high grader. [46:01] This is like, you can't say enough about [46:04] it. Throwing Kuwaiti, Saudi, Amirati [46:10] into the mix will cause more trouble [46:12] than it's worth. Not because they're bad [46:13] guys, but they don't have the punch to [46:17] justify [46:19] the risk of coordination. [46:21] >> Right. And what's needed by the [46:22] Americans and the Israelis isn't more [46:24] sets of hands. It's not like they're [46:25] lacking in in resources. You know, the, [46:29] you know, we kind of have to wrap up, [46:31] but I would, you know, I I would suggest [46:34] something that uh I actually heard from [46:36] our good friend, he's been on the [46:37] podcast many times, Dr. David Worms, [46:39] where he said, you know, the one thing [46:41] the Saudis probably could do without [46:42] getting in the way of the Americans and [46:44] the Israelis is deal with the Houthis, [46:47] >> right? [46:49] Yes. Absolutely. [46:52] Um, just one quick sentence and I [46:55] because Turkey is a whole story in [46:56] itself. Doug, you you you raised the [46:58] question. Look, Erdogan is hardcore [47:00] Muslim Brotherhood. He hates Israel. [47:04] >> He has no great love for the West [47:05] either, but he knows how to play the [47:06] game because of NATO and America and all [47:08] of that and and he's he's wooed Trump uh [47:12] somehow as a result of that. [47:14] >> But I think this is where my danger. [47:18] >> Fair enough. But I'm saying up until now [47:20] we're you know where we are. Uh but he [47:22] is hardcore radical Islam Muslim [47:25] Brotherhood and that's all you need to [47:26] know to know about where he's coming [47:28] from. [47:29] >> Well, I know there's a ton more. U we're [47:31] going to continue to pray here on [47:33] Shouldertoshoulder. But as always, [47:35] Elliot, we appreciate your expertise and [47:37] encourage all of you to go over and [47:38] check out Conflict Uncovered. Uh you'll [47:40] get all the inside scoop on the military [47:42] operations and Elliot's insight. So, [47:45] thank you again, Elliot, for being with [47:46] us and thank you for listening to [47:48] today's episode. If you enjoyed this [47:49] episode, please like, rate, and share [47:51] this podcast. Subscribe on Patreon. Come [47:53] on over to Facebook, like our page, join [47:55] our group as we would love to connect [47:56] with more and more of our [47:57] shoulder-to-shoulder family. And we'll [47:59] see you on our next episode.
