Transcript [00:00] Hey everyone, this is the Iran update [00:02] for Tuesday, February 10th, and we're [00:05] going to start this one with General [00:08] Jack Keane on Fox News giving his take [00:11] on the current situation. Let's have a [00:14] look at that. [00:17] >> Well, I think a deal can be reached. [00:19] Well, we you have to get in position. We [00:21] have plenty of time. If you remember [00:22] Venezuela, we waited around for a while [00:25] and uh we're in no rush. I think we had [00:28] the results today were with Iran. It was [00:30] a meeting. We're going to meet again [00:32] early next week. And they want to make a [00:35] deal. Iran, as they should, want to make [00:37] a deal. They know the consequences. If [00:39] they don't, if they don't make a deal, [00:41] the consequences are very stable. So, [00:44] we'll see what happens. [00:45] >> And President Trump giving a positive [00:47] assessment of talks between the US and [00:48] Iran last week, but the president also [00:50] sounding a note of caution if a deal is [00:53] not ultimately reached. It all comes [00:54] amid a buildup of US military assets in [00:57] the Middle East. So, let's untangle this [00:59] with retired General Jack Kein. He's a [01:01] Fox News senior strategic analyst. Sir, [01:03] before we get your take on this, [01:05] Ambassador Michael Huckabe trying to [01:08] explain why this is bigger than Israel. [01:11] >> Americans need to understand Iran's [01:12] threat is not about Israel. It's about [01:14] America. They've been saying death to [01:16] America for 47 years. President Trump is [01:19] just that. He's President Trump. He is [01:21] not President Trump. He's not going to [01:24] allow the Ayatollah to continue to play [01:27] this along and somehow act like that he [01:31] will never take action. He's already [01:32] proven he will take action when he needs [01:35] to and when he does it will not be mild. [01:38] >> General, what is your assessment of the [01:40] situation now? [01:43] >> Yeah. Well, certainly we're in a phase [01:45] here that we've seen play out before [01:47] with the Trump administration, and that [01:49] is when when he has a potential conflict [01:52] with an adversary is offering them a [01:54] diplomatic way out of that before the [01:57] execution of it. We saw it back prior to [01:59] the June operation midnight hammer to uh [02:02] destroy Iran's nuclear capability and [02:04] prior to the commencing the war that [02:06] Israel did. uh diplomatic overtures were [02:09] made to Iran and they refused them and [02:11] the result was the 12-day war and the [02:14] United States very successful operation. [02:16] Same thing happened in Venezuela uh with [02:19] Madura and that diplomatic option is [02:22] being offered to Iran right now. I think [02:24] Iran's motivations in in this are are [02:27] kind of twofold. one to drag out these [02:30] uh negotiations as much as possible and [02:33] the the advantage they see in doing that [02:35] is it puts off the military operation [02:38] itself. It enables them to better [02:40] prepare to defend against it and also to [02:44] be able to retaliate as a result of it. [02:46] And then the the second thing Iran has [02:49] and this is major motivation for them is [02:52] to make some kind of a deal uh with the [02:55] Americans that would grant them sanction [02:58] relief. Admittedly it would likely be [03:00] condition based based on their complying [03:03] uh with the deal itself. But that is [03:05] clearly what their objective is. And and [03:08] the reason for that is as we have [03:10] reported here time and again their [03:11] economy is in the tank with this no hope [03:15] of recovery and that is why the people [03:18] are in the streets and really want a new [03:20] regime because they know this regime is [03:22] not capable of changing the quality of [03:25] their life experience. So that's where [03:27] we are. I actually even if we got a deal [03:29] that's favorable to us, Dana and Bill, I [03:33] think the preferred option is a military [03:35] one because if if we get a deal with the [03:38] Iranians, we know a couple of things. [03:40] One, they're going to cheat. Two, [03:42] they're not going to stop destabilizing [03:44] the Middle East. They will continue to [03:46] support their proxies and they will [03:48] continue to be aggressive uh against [03:50] Israel, which may warrant even more [03:52] military conflict, you know, as a result [03:54] of that. That's who the Iranians are. [03:56] They'll continue to export terrorism [03:59] itself and they will cheat. We know they [04:01] will cheat because we've bit them been [04:04] with them for four plus decades. So I [04:07] don't think it's a good option to extend [04:09] the life of this regime for what maybe [04:12] another 10 years or so. [04:14] >> It doesn't make sense to me. the [04:16] military option, the one that the [04:18] president is in the planning and [04:19] preparation stage of it is a preferred [04:22] option here because it sets the [04:25] conditions for regime collapse and it [04:27] would likely be a combined operation [04:29] with Israel and the United States. And [04:31] what we're seeing now, the pacing uh for [04:35] this operation is being driven by being [04:37] able to move resources into the region [04:39] to do two things. one to help us defend [04:42] as well as the Israelis against Iranians [04:46] retaliation attack but also to make [04:49] certain that this operation would likely [04:52] not be a limited operation in terms of a [04:55] one night operation or two nights. This [04:57] would be a comprehensive campaign [05:00] combined with the stated purpose to set [05:02] the conditions for a regime collapse. [05:04] And that would mean the whole Iranian [05:06] ecosystem in terms of what com what [05:10] composes that regime, what sustains that [05:12] regime would be under attack to include [05:14] their military capability. Obviously, [05:16] rockets missiles uh etc. [05:19] >> Well, we also know that the prime [05:21] minister of Israel, BB Netanyahu, will [05:24] be visiting the White House this week. [05:25] So, we'll take all of that under [05:27] advisement and be in touch with you as [05:29] the week goes along. Thank you so much. [05:32] >> All right, let's unpack this. [05:35] Um, first of all, that clip at the [05:37] beginning of Trump, if you noticed, and [05:39] I've been pointing this out all the way [05:40] through in the in the sentence, the [05:42] first sentence they had him say, he [05:44] said, "We want a deal [05:47] and we h and it takes time for us to get [05:49] into position." Which is talking about [05:51] preparing for an attack. It's that [05:53] classic Trump misdirection play that [05:55] I've been talking about. And in case you [05:57] missed one of the previous videos that [05:59] we did sometime last week, I also used [06:01] this clip I'm about to show you in a [06:04] video on the Israel 365 YouTube channel. [06:07] I want to play this again because it's [06:09] so important. This is a clip of [06:11] President Trump way, way back in 2016 [06:15] when he was first running for president. [06:17] This is in April of 2016. He wasn't even [06:19] the nominee yet. and he gave his first [06:22] major foreign policy address as a [06:24] candidate in Washington DC. And I'm just [06:26] going to play you a couple seconds of [06:28] this. They're so important for what [06:29] we're all going through right now. [06:36] And then there's ISIS. I have a simple [06:39] message for them. Their days are [06:42] numbered. I won't tell them where and I [06:45] won't tell them how. We must [06:50] >> [applause] [06:53] >> We must as a nation be more [06:56] unpredictable. We are totally [06:58] predictable. We tell everything. We're [07:01] sending troops, we tell them. We're [07:03] sending something else, we have a news [07:04] conference. We have to be unpredictable. [07:08] And we have to be unpredictable starting [07:11] now. [07:13] There you go. [07:16] This is a doctrine for President Trump. [07:18] Okay, let's think of it that way. When [07:20] we look at these misdirection plays at [07:22] him speaking at, you know, giving mixed [07:25] messages or seeming indecisive or [07:27] erratic, [07:29] that's not that's not the proper way to [07:30] interpret it. This is a doctrine of [07:32] President Trump's. And I'm going to also [07:33] point out that in that speech when he [07:35] said that part, this wasn't an [07:36] off-the-cuff remark. Trump often goes [07:38] off script, but you can tell when he's [07:40] going off script and when he's not [07:42] because you can tell when he's reading [07:44] at a certain pace and reading what's on [07:45] the teleprompter. This was part of his [07:47] speech. This was an important point [07:49] about how he is going to conduct the [07:51] sensitive [07:53] uh aspects of foreign policy that deal [07:55] with military, right? He meaning it's [07:58] unpredictable. It's a doctrine of [08:00] unpredictability. Now, later on in the [08:03] uh in that clip from Fox News that we [08:04] started with, we had Ambassador Huckabe [08:06] basically saying, "Look, President Trump [08:08] is not going to allow this to be a [08:09] situation where he doesn't where he [08:12] doesn't uh act and he and he he's going [08:14] to he's not going to be another Obama. [08:15] he's not going to allow himself to get [08:17] duped. And and uh and General Keane [08:21] pointed out along those lines that what [08:23] is really the point of making a deal [08:25] with these guys so they can just kick [08:26] the can down the road because even if [08:28] there's a deal to to dismantle their [08:30] their nuclear program, it's a technology [08:32] that they're working on, they have the [08:34] wherewithal to rebuild it. And these [08:36] guys are are they could just wait it out [08:38] until Trump is not president anymore. [08:40] And there has never been an opportunity [08:43] ever since the 1979 revolution in Iran [08:45] that brought these criminals into power. [08:47] There has never been an opportunity like [08:49] this to remove them from the stage. And [08:51] that's the point that General Keane was [08:53] making. And we have to get our heads [08:54] around this. Big changes like this that [08:57] are, you know, that look like massive [09:00] instability and a war. There's I I [09:03] totally understand the inclination that [09:05] so many people have to say, "Oh, we [09:06] don't want to go to war. anything to [09:07] avoid war. That anything to avoid war uh [09:12] impulse can lead us to allowing evil [09:16] actors to remain in power long term. And [09:18] there's no reason why they should remain [09:20] in power long term. Now, I'll also point [09:22] out Keane made a very good point that [09:24] the attacks on Iran will set the [09:26] conditions for regime collapse. Set the [09:30] conditions for regime collapse. That's [09:32] how we have to think about this. [09:33] Ultimately, the regime change has to [09:37] come from the Iranian people. There's no [09:39] way that this regime will go away [09:41] without the Iranian people stepping up. [09:43] But the the United States and Israel [09:46] together can carry out attacks that set [09:50] the conditions for the regime to fall [09:53] apart and collapse. And that's what [09:54] these attacks are going to be designed [09:56] to do if and when President Trump [09:59] decides to launch them, which again it's [10:01] looking more and more likely that that's [10:03] what he's going to do. Um meanwhile, uh [10:06] Prime Minister Netanyahu is on his way. [10:09] We have uh Prime Minister Netanyahu put [10:11] out a statement. I'm now leaving for the [10:13] United States for my seventh trip to [10:15] meet with President Trump since he was [10:16] elected. This of course does not include [10:18] his unforgettable visit to Israel and [10:20] his speech in the Knesset. Let's take a [10:22] look at what he says here. [10:24] U because he talks about the [10:25] negotiations a little bit. [10:37] local. [11:23] Shalom. [11:28] Okay. So, we all knew that that was the [11:30] purpose of the trip. And as AP reports, [11:32] Netanyahu wants Trump to demand more [11:34] from Iran. The leaders will meet this [11:36] week. And we talked about this in [11:40] yesterday's update that Israel is really [11:43] uh pressuring that that any [11:46] negotiations, as it says here, the prime [11:47] minister believes that any negotiations [11:49] must include limiting ballistic missiles [11:51] and ending support for the Iranian axis, [11:53] meaning the proxies. And that was a [11:55] statement from Netanyahu's office over [11:57] the weekend. [11:59] And um [12:02] America of course has this massive this [12:04] massive military buildup here. And then [12:06] they in this AP piece they quote a an [12:12] Iran expert from Israel who used to work [12:14] for the Mossad [12:16] and she points out Simashan. points out [12:19] that Israel of course is afraid that is [12:21] that the US is going to reach a narrow [12:23] agreement with Iran which would [12:25] temporarily halt uranium enrichment. A [12:27] deal which Iran in which Iran halts its [12:29] enrichment for several years would allow [12:31] Trump to claim victory. But Israel [12:33] believes any such agreement that does [12:35] not end Iran's nuclear program and [12:37] reduce its ballistic missile arsenal [12:39] will eventually require Israel to launch [12:42] another wave of strikes, she said. And [12:46] some members of Netanyahu's cabinet have [12:47] signaled that unilateral action remains [12:50] on the table for Israel even if a deal [12:53] is reached that Trump hails as a [12:55] victory. This is a member of Netanyahu's [12:58] cabinet. This is energy minister Ellie [12:59] Cohen saying this on Army Radio. Now let [13:02] me explain. Not all cabinet ministers [13:04] are as close to the prime minister and [13:06] not all of them speak for the government [13:07] necessarily. Some of the ministers are [13:09] from other parties. Ellie Cohen is very [13:13] close to Prime Minister Netanyahu. is [13:14] part of his inner circle. Okay. So, when [13:17] Energy Minister Ellie Cohen tells Army [13:19] Radio that Israel views Iran's ballistic [13:21] missiles as a grave threat and quote [13:23] reserves the option to act should an [13:26] agreement not meet its security needs. [13:29] We need to take that extremely seriously [13:33] uh because uh that means that the [13:36] Israelis are preparing everyone they're [13:38] including their own people for the [13:40] possibility that Israel will act alone [13:43] if there's a deal that does not satisfy [13:45] Israel. Okay? So one way or another uh [13:48] those ballistic missiles are going to [13:49] get dealt with whether they get dealt [13:51] with by the Americans or they get dealt [13:52] with by the Israelis. Meanwhile, with [13:54] other players in the region, the Turks [13:56] uh are signaling again that there should [13:59] not be any military intervention. This [14:00] is an interesting plotline developing [14:02] because of the close working [14:03] relationship that the Trump [14:06] administration has with the Turks, which [14:07] is very problematic, of course. But uh [14:10] here we have the the Justice and [14:13] Development Party, the AK party. That is [14:15] Erdogan's party. So an official from [14:17] that party, the party's spokesman was [14:21] addressing regional and global issues [14:23] following a central executive board [14:24] meeting chaired by President Erdogan. [14:27] And he said that any military [14:30] intervention in Iran, external military [14:32] intervention, will be based on wrong [14:34] analyses and cause great instability. [14:37] Now, of course, it would cause great [14:39] instability. Let's be honest, but maybe [14:41] we need a little instability. You know, [14:43] this this fetish of stability being a [14:46] goal and being a good thing. This is [14:48] something that's really worth talking [14:49] about because you hear it from world [14:51] leaders all the time. Oh, we want [14:53] stability. We want stability. We want [14:54] stability. What does stability mean? I [14:56] mean, North Korea is stable, right? It's [15:00] a brutal dictatorship where no one has [15:02] any human rights, but it's stable. If [15:06] stability means that the bad actors [15:08] continue to be bad actors, what does [15:11] that mean? And and what does stability [15:13] mean with the Iranian regime in power? [15:15] Have we had stability for the last 47 [15:17] years withah and kamas and the Houthis [15:22] and everything else and and the drug [15:23] trafficking across to Venezuela up into [15:26] the United States and everything that [15:27] the Iranian regime does. I guess it's [15:30] stability because the regime hasn't [15:32] fallen. [15:34] You know, as this Turkish official [15:37] saying that we need to have stability. [15:39] This is the language they're talking. [15:40] They're trying to sell this to the [15:42] people around Trump that, you know, [15:44] don't rock the boat. We want stability. [15:45] Don't be someone who started a war. And [15:49] they're all warning that they're that [15:51] attacking Iran could lead to regional [15:55] instability. Regional instability. Uh [15:58] they're warning, you know, the Iranians [16:00] have been saying this as well that it's [16:03] going to lead to a regional war. Now, [16:04] let me be very clear. I said this in my [16:06] update the other day. There will not be, [16:09] and I'm going out on a limb making a [16:11] prediction here. I don't usually like to [16:12] make predictions, but let me be clear. [16:15] There will not be a wider regional war [16:17] if the United States attacks Iran. [16:20] Anyone who tells you that there's a fear [16:21] of that, tell them this. Listen [16:25] carefully. [16:26] wider regional war means that someone [16:30] joins the Iranians, [16:33] that someone helps the Iranians, that [16:35] someone jumps in when the US and or [16:38] Israel attacks the Iranians. Who's going [16:40] to join in? Look at a map of the Middle [16:43] East. None of the Gulf states are going [16:44] to attack the United States and attack [16:47] American assets. Is it who's going to [16:50] join them? Saudi Arabia is not going to [16:52] join them. [16:53] Who's going to help them out? Their [16:55] proxies. Yeah. Okay, [16:57] Iraq, Iraqi and andbah and Lebanon who [17:01] probably won't do anything because [17:03] they're caught between Iraq and a hard [17:05] place in Lebanon. You can go over to the [17:06] Israel 365 news channel and you'll see [17:09] my video about Saudi Arabia that I just [17:12] that we just released uh where I talk [17:14] about that no one is going to join the [17:17] Iranians fighting against the Americans. [17:19] It would be the end of them. Imagine any [17:21] any regional actor who joined in to help [17:24] Iran by attacking American assets or [17:26] attacking Israeli assets. They would [17:28] they would invite unbelievable [17:31] retaliation against themselves. There's [17:33] no one who's going to help them. And the [17:34] Russians and the Chinese already showed [17:36] us during the 12-day war that they were [17:37] not willing to lift a finger. So [17:39] instead, what they do is these kind of [17:41] performative actions that make it look [17:42] like they're still with them and that it [17:44] makes it look like they'll support them [17:46] militarily without committing. I talked [17:48] about this in an earlier update last [17:50] week where you know the Chinese and the [17:54] Russians said that they're going to [17:55] conduct joint naval drills together with [17:57] the Iranians in midFebruary [18:01] right in the middle of all of this. No, [18:02] the point was to signal that they're [18:04] with them without making a commitment to [18:06] defend them. So we had something similar [18:09] today where u this was just reported [18:12] today that the Chinese military atache [18:16] that the based in Thran. So the Chinese [18:19] have a military atache based in Thran. [18:22] And today he met with Brigadier General [18:25] Bahaman Bemard, commander of the Islamic [18:28] Republic of Iran Air Force commemorating [18:31] the allegiance of the Iranian Air Force [18:34] personnel to Ayatollah Kmeni and Air [18:38] Force Day. During the ceremony, the [18:40] Chinese military attes presented a scale [18:43] model of the J20 [18:46] Chinese fighter jet to the Iranian Air [18:49] Force commander. The J20 is a fifth [18:52] generation Chinese stealth fighter [18:54] developed by Shangdu Aircraft Industry [18:57] Group, Chinese designed for both air [18:59] superiority and ground attack, etc., [19:02] etc. And then it says at the bottom [19:03] here, it's considered a serious [19:05] competitor [19:07] to the US fifth generation aircraft such [19:10] as the F-22 and the F-35, symbolizing [19:13] China's technological advances in [19:15] defense industry. So he presents him [19:17] with this toy, with this scale model of [19:20] a stealth fighter. Now, let me be very [19:22] clear. The Chinese have not sold this [19:25] plane to Iran. They're not going to sell [19:27] it to Iran. The Iranians are trying to [19:30] get the Chinese to sell them the J10 [19:32] fighter, which is uh which is a [19:34] generation behind. There was rumors [19:36] going back a few months ago. This is a [19:37] story from I think back in uh when is [19:40] this from? Back in July, right after the [19:42] 12-day war, where the Chinese were [19:44] trying to purchase the J10 fighter, the [19:47] J10C, [19:49] which is a generation behind the J20. [19:52] It's still a nice a nice plane. And they [19:54] and it's not even clear that they've [19:56] purchased that yet. Let me add that [19:59] weeks after the 12-day war, instead of [20:01] trying to rebuild their infrastructure [20:03] and maybe solve some of their economic [20:05] problems, they were hard at it trying to [20:08] buy more weapons. At the time, they they [20:10] purchased some Russian MiGs. [20:13] Um but this this little uh stunt here of [20:17] presenting the uh you know presenting [20:20] this uh the head of the Iranian air [20:22] force with this stealth fighter is just [20:25] a way of kind of flexing muscles and [20:27] saying look the Chinese are going to be [20:29] arming the Iranians with advanced [20:31] equipment. Look the Chinese are not [20:34] going to risk anything anything to [20:38] defend the Iranian regime. They will [20:41] not. So bottom line is this is what I'm [20:43] trying to tell you. Anyone who tells you [20:46] that there is a threat of a regional war [20:49] if the US attacks Iran, don't believe [20:53] them. It's nonsense. Or just ask them [20:54] the simple question. Okay, tell me who's [20:58] going to join the Iranians? Who's going [20:59] to fight alongside them? When was the [21:01] last time anyone in the Middle East [21:03] jumped in to help fight a war? any state [21:07] actor jumped in to help fight a war to [21:10] help out another another country [21:12] fighting a war. Where have you ever seen [21:14] that in the Middle East? It's absolute [21:15] nonsense. Don't believe it. It ain't [21:17] going to happen. That's my update for [21:19] today. We'll keep watching everything. [21:21] There's a lot happening here. You can [21:22] drop a comment. Let let me know if you [21:24] agree with me. Maybe you disagree and [21:25] you think there is a real chance of a [21:27] wider regional war. If so, answer my [21:29] question. Who do you think will join [21:30] them? How do you think this will play [21:32] out? If you do agree with me, please [21:34] share this video. tell other people [21:36] about it because there's a lot happening [21:38] now and there's a lot of fog and a lot [21:40] of misdirection plays by everyone [21:41] involved. So, please keep watching this [21:43] channel, stay tuned to it and again, [21:45] please drop a comment. Let me know what [21:46] you think of these videos because we're [21:48] still, you know, we're still building [21:49] out the channel and we really appreciate [21:51] all your help. And of course, always go [21:52] over to Israel 365 News, check out [21:54] everything we're doing there. God bless.
