Transcript [00:00] General Jack Keane was on Fox a little [00:02] while ago and you by the way brilliant [00:04] on Fox prime time. Uh very impressive. [00:07] Uh made the point he said maybe another [00:09] week or two. We see Hegath has just sat [00:11] down for a 60 Minutes interview and he [00:13] said we've learned the lessons of Iraq [00:15] and Afghanistan. Uh we we hear on Fox [00:18] and and obviously a lot of them are very [00:20] connected. We can't let that battle [00:21] creep get in. Do you see it as as more [00:24] of a shortterm thing and define that? I [00:27] know. What's a piece of string? Well, [00:31] we know what Trump wants because finally [00:33] a couple days ago, he revealed what he [00:34] wants uh in terms of outcomes. He was [00:37] when he was sitting with Chancellor [00:38] Mertz in the Oval Office the other day [00:40] and he had a sort of ad hoc press avail. [00:44] He was asked [00:45] um about regime change [00:48] >> and his answer was very it was very [00:49] Trumpian answer. He didn't answer the [00:50] question directly. He just started [00:52] sounding like he's rambling but he's [00:54] not. And he he he talked about the ideal [00:58] of Venezuela. He praised the Venezuela [01:01] situation. He said, "Look what we did [01:02] there." [01:03] >> And he said something very interesting. [01:05] He said, "Look, we kept the government [01:06] intact. They removed Maduro and started [01:09] working with Deli Rodriguez, who was [01:10] Maduro's number two." [01:12] >> Yeah. [01:13] >> And what that does, and I'm not saying [01:15] this as a criticism, there's there's [01:16] pros and cons to this. Although it [01:19] throws the Venezuelan people under the [01:21] bus, it seems at least in the short [01:23] term, it certainly doesn't embrace Maria [01:26] Karina Machado who who won that election [01:28] by a landslide. [01:30] >> It chooses stability over democracy and [01:33] there's something to be said for that [01:34] because if you if you say we're we're [01:36] going to remove all the criminals and [01:38] then you end up with instability. So he [01:40] compared Venezuela to Iraq where in Iraq [01:43] when the Saddam Hussein regime fell, [01:46] they went in and they cleared everyone [01:47] out. They fired everybody. But that of [01:50] course leads to all kinds of chaos and [01:51] ISIS grows out of that. So Trump was [01:54] touting the Venezuela model as a way of [01:57] keeping things stable because you keep [01:59] all the technocrats and bureaucrats in [02:01] place. You keep the structure in place. [02:03] Everything continues to run. You [02:04] decapitate it and you move in and you [02:06] work with those top people and you hold [02:08] a gun to their head and get them to [02:10] behave. And that way you now the [02:12] question is what you do down the road. [02:14] If Venezuela doesn't at some point under [02:16] American under American uh um uh [02:20] supervision go to an actual democratic [02:23] election and the Americans long term [02:25] keep working with these Marxist [02:27] criminals who were who were basically [02:29] the Maduro regime criminals mobsters who [02:32] are running Venezuela which is what the [02:34] Americans are doing now. If that's what [02:36] happens long term then the Venezuelan [02:37] people are no freer than they were under [02:39] Maduro. Maybe maybe a little freer. [02:41] >> But Trump wants the same thing in Iran. [02:43] It's much cleaner if you say we're going [02:46] to purge everyone, then what happens? [02:48] All the people in power, all the IRGC [02:50] people are going to fight to the end. [02:52] >> They're not. But if you say to them, [02:54] listen, if you cooperate with us, you [02:57] know, everything will be fine. And then [03:00] you and you in and you put some [03:01] stability in there, that doesn't mean it [03:03] moves to a democracy. The Americans want [03:06] that. The Israelis might not be as [03:07] satisfied with it. Um, so you know, but [03:11] I can see Israel suddenly going, you [03:14] know, right now Israel is the golden [03:15] boy. They're America's sidekick and no [03:17] one's criticizing them and nobody and [03:20] nobody's criticizing Israel because [03:21] indirectly they'd be criticizing Trump. [03:23] But what happens when America and the [03:26] Saudis and the Amiradis and the Qataris [03:28] say, "Okay, we're done. We're [03:29] negotiating with these guys." And they [03:31] work with the reformers in the regime in [03:33] Iran and Israel says, "No, no, no, no, [03:34] no. This is not this is not good enough [03:36] for us." Then suddenly Israel can become [03:39] isolated like that. [03:41] >> Yeah, it's I mean everything you say is [03:43] is brilliant. Do you think it makes a [03:45] difference and the point of difference [03:47] from Venezuela to here that Trump has [03:50] been very public multiple times in his [03:52] desire to help the Iranian people? Help [03:54] is on its way. I am going to give you [03:57] the opportunity. It's now on you to take [03:59] back your country, take back your [04:00] government. That would be a point where [04:02] people could legitimately go at him for [04:05] if he pulled out and that wasn't at [04:07] least an opportunity for them. But I am [04:09] also acutely aware of the fact that just [04:12] because you remove some bad guys, it [04:13] doesn't mean that everyone else there is [04:15] good. That the 90 million people are [04:17] amazing. I know the vast majority [04:18] doesn't support the current regime, but [04:20] there's other evil people who are [04:21] looking for a chance as well, isn't [04:23] there, to move in. It's complex. [04:26] >> Yeah. Well, this is Trump's blind spot. [04:28] Trump's blind spot with with everything [04:30] he does in the Middle East is an [04:32] assumption that these people have the [04:34] same motivations that he does or that [04:36] most Western people do. [04:37] >> Yeah. [04:37] >> And that is that, you know, really in [04:39] the end of the day, everyone just wants [04:40] money and power. [04:42] >> Uh and it's not necessarily true. These [04:44] are ideological people and it's a [04:46] mistake Westerners have been making [04:47] forever. And that's why we think that [04:50] bringing, you know, like when Jared [04:51] Kushner, you know, shows uh, you know, [04:53] pictures of what Gaza could look like [04:55] and it looks kind of like Boca Raton, [04:57] Florida, you know, and and you say like, [04:59] "Oh, we're going to we're going to give [05:00] them a better life." And then you say, [05:02] "Wait a second. These same people in [05:04] Gaza [05:05] >> still support Hamas even though they're [05:06] living in, you know, in puddles and [05:08] tents, you know." So we think that [05:12] economics matters more to people. So the [05:15] problem with keeping the Iranian regime [05:16] intact the way Trump wants to do and [05:18] saying don't worry, we'll pay them off [05:20] and we'll make them all rich and [05:21] everyone will be happy is that there's [05:23] still Shiite ideologues. Uh so no, [05:26] there's a lot of ways this can go [05:27] sideways, but one thing we have to keep [05:28] in mind, one thing we have to keep in [05:30] mind, I have a I have a column coming [05:31] out soon in the Jerusalem Post about the [05:33] different options for regime change and [05:35] how they're all not really good. Meaning [05:37] this can go sideways in many different [05:38] ways. But we have to keep in mind that [05:41] no matter what happens in Iran, [05:43] >> even if it gets chaotic, even if there's [05:45] if it turns into ethnic violence between [05:48] different groups and the Kurds are [05:49] carving out their peace and the MEK is [05:52] carving out their peace and even if it [05:54] takes a while to stabilize, [05:56] >> it is not as bad as the regime we had [05:58] for 47 years. It's not as bad. No matter [06:01] what outcome is, none of it will be as [06:03] bad as that. the the havoc that that [06:05] regime caused worldwide and and people [06:08] don't talk enough about the fact that [06:10] has has bases of operation training [06:12] bases and more in Venezuela in Paraguay [06:16] all over South America is a global [06:18] organization and the drug trafficking [06:20] and the human trafficking and everything [06:22] that they've been doing worldwide that [06:24] the fact that that that the engine of [06:26] that whole network is being dismantled [06:28] right now even if Iran turns into a [06:32] chaotic place which is Very sad. But you [06:34] know what? That's the reality. If a [06:36] government does evil things, they invite [06:39] destruction on their people. And that is [06:40] a sad fact of life. You know, in Nazi [06:43] Germany, they learned that. In Imperial [06:45] Japan, they learned that. And they're [06:47] learning it in Iran. I feel bad for the [06:48] Iranian people. But that's what happens. [06:51] But none of it, no outcome of this war [06:53] is as bad as the regime itself that [06:56] we've been dealing with for the last 47 [06:58] years, especially since the end of the [07:00] Iran Iraq war. you know, for the for the [07:02] first while when the when they had that [07:04] 10year or 11-year war with with Iraq, [07:06] they kind of kept each other busy and [07:09] they weren't as much of a threat. The [07:11] real rising threat of Iran with the [07:13] proxies and the ballistic missiles and [07:14] then ultimately the drive to nuclear all [07:17] starts after the Iran Iraq war. So if [07:19] they end up getting distracted now with [07:21] an interessent battles to see who gets [07:24] to control the carcass of of the Iranian [07:26] regime afterwards, I feel bad for them, [07:29] but it's still better than this regime. [07:32] >> I will wrap up because I've taken so [07:34] much of your time and I'm very grateful. [07:36] What percentage chance do you give of a [07:39] resa going into transition and the [07:41] Iranian people democratically electing [07:44] their next leader? [07:46] >> It depends on a few things. Well, first [07:48] of all, how popular Resop Palavi [07:51] actually is is a matter of dispute and [07:55] unfortunately I'm finding it very [07:56] difficult and I'm having conversations [07:58] with some of the people on both sides of [08:00] it. I'm having a very difficult time [08:02] discerning the reality because it seems [08:04] that everyone is so politically [08:05] motivated. The propel people are have an [08:08] interest in saying he's more popular [08:10] than maybe he is and the antipalvi [08:13] people the opposite. So, it's very hard [08:15] to get a sense of what's real. um [08:17] meaning there are indications that [08:19] there's that that his name carries a lot [08:21] of weight and still is very popular. We [08:23] saw that with the protests and the [08:24] response to him, but others say no, he [08:27] doesn't, you know, but he's been away [08:28] for four and a half decades and he [08:29] doesn't really know the lay of the land. [08:32] There's a lot of arguments for and [08:33] against. It's very hard to discern. I [08:35] think a lot of it will have to do with [08:37] how active a role do the Americans take [08:40] uh in what goes on afterwards. Uh [08:42] because if they really take a hands-off [08:44] approach and say, you know, you guys [08:45] sort it out, then I don't think Palvi [08:48] has a chance because there's all these [08:50] other militias and there's all these [08:51] entrenched bureaucrats who are going to [08:53] try to have a say. Um and there's [08:56] there's a whole there's a whole [08:57] bureaucracy. Eron, we have to remember [08:59] Iran is not Iraq, Syria, or Libya. Those [09:02] places are were tiny little countries [09:05] where the where the the the dictatorship [09:08] was basically a mafia family. In other [09:10] words, Bashar Assad gets on a plane and [09:12] flies to Russia. That's the end of the [09:13] Syrian regime. Doesn't work that way in [09:15] Iran. The IRGC is around 180 190,000 men [09:20] and that's just the IRGC. All the [09:23] bureaucrats in the system are not [09:24] technically IRGC, but they are. And then [09:27] you have their families. So, think of it [09:28] more as a political party, an elite [09:31] class of probably between 750,000 and a [09:34] million people that oppresses the rest [09:37] of the population. It's much more [09:38] similar to the Chinese Communist Party [09:40] than it is to a little despotic [09:42] dictatorship like Libya or Syria. So [09:44] removing the regime is not such a simple [09:46] matter. [09:46] >> Final thing, and I I don't want to put [09:48] you on the spot here, but Marco Rubio or [09:50] JD Vance post Trump's second term. [09:55] Well, I just think that when Marco Rubio [09:57] stood up to the mic the other day and [09:59] spoke in Spanish, he reminded everyone [10:01] that the GOP that is right now bleeding [10:04] minorities [10:06] is going to be saved by Marco Rubio [10:08] because if he's the presidential [10:09] candidate, he will sweep across um [10:12] Texas, Nevada, New Mexico, Arizona, [10:17] Southern California, and he'll speak [10:19] Spanish and he'll sweep everyone off [10:21] their feet. JD Vance. I I just, you [10:23] know, without saying what I like or [10:25] dislike, I don't think JD Vance has a [10:26] chance of winning a presidential [10:28] election.
