Transcript [00:00] So, there are negotiations. We've been [00:02] talking about this for a couple days. [00:03] Trump says that there are active [00:04] negotiations between some leaders in [00:08] Iran and the Americans and he's touting [00:10] this as going well and that we could be [00:13] headed for a deal. So, we're going to [00:14] break that all down through the eyes of [00:17] Iranian regime media. That's right. To [00:19] those of you who've been with me since [00:21] the beginning of the war, we've been [00:22] doing this around once a week where we [00:24] do a review of what Iranian state media [00:28] is saying and it's a fascinating window [00:31] into where they want this to go and how [00:33] they how they see all the strategic [00:36] calculations. If you're new to this, [00:38] you're going to enjoy this one. These [00:39] are important videos. Uh before we get [00:41] to that, please make sure to visit [00:43] Israel365charity.com [00:46] uh and click on the Israel is under fire [00:48] banner. There are still many, many [00:50] families, a growing number of families [00:51] who are struggling with a whole range of [00:53] issues having to do with the attacks [00:56] from Iran, from damage to their homes, [00:58] loss of their homes, loss of family [01:00] members, injuries, children at home, [01:03] inability to work for a variety of [01:05] reasons, stress, the Passover holiday [01:07] coming up and the list goes on and on. [01:09] The home front challenges right now for [01:12] Israel are many and uh the um and the [01:15] resources are stretched thin and this is [01:18] a great way for you from a distance to [01:20] participate in what is going on here and [01:22] alleviate some of that stress. [01:25] Uh go to Israel365charity.com [01:28] and give to the Israel is under fire [01:30] campaign and Israel365 is plugged in to [01:34] all the best charities on the ground and [01:36] your dollar will go right to where it is [01:39] needed most. So, we're going to start [01:40] this off with a short clip of President [01:43] Trump from yesterday talking about where [01:46] things stand. [01:49] We killed all their leadership. [01:52] And then they met to choose new leaders [01:53] and we killed all of them. [01:56] And now we have a new group and we can [01:58] easily do that but let's see how they [02:01] turn out. It's We have really [02:04] regime change. You know, this is a [02:06] change in the regime [02:08] uh because the leaders are all very [02:09] different than the ones that we started [02:12] off with that created all those [02:14] problems. So, this was I think we can [02:15] say, Jason, this is regime change, [02:17] right? What makes you trust them? [02:20] I don't trust anybody. I don't trust [02:21] you. I mean, [02:23] that's only cuz I know you. But uh if I [02:25] didn't know you, I'd probably have more [02:27] trust. [02:28] >> [laughter] [02:29] >> But uh [02:30] I don't trust anybody. Why do you Why do [02:32] you say that Why do you say what makes [02:34] you Do you think I trust them? I don't [02:36] trust them. [02:37] >> Then why bother talking to them? [02:39] Because they're going to make a deal. [02:40] They're going to make a deal. They did [02:42] something yesterday that was amazing, [02:45] gave us a present. [02:47] And the present arrived today. [02:49] And it was a very big present worth a [02:52] tremendous amount of money. [02:54] And I'm not going to tell you what that [02:55] present is but it was a very significant [02:59] uh [03:00] uh [03:01] prize. [03:03] And they gave it to us and they said [03:04] they were going to give it so that meant [03:06] one thing to me, we deal with the right [03:07] people. [03:08] >> nuclear related? [03:09] >> No, it wasn't nuclear related. It was [03:11] oil and gas related. And it was a very [03:14] nice thing they did but what it showed [03:16] me is that we're dealing with the right [03:17] people cuz you know, you don't know cuz [03:20] the leadership was killed, all gone. [03:22] Khamenei, all gone. [03:24] As the expression goes, the past supreme [03:27] leader. [03:28] And then the new supreme leader was [03:31] racked up, at a minimum racked up pretty [03:33] good. [03:34] And everyone else was gone. [03:36] And then many of the people in the third [03:38] tier are gone. [03:40] But we're dealing with a group of people [03:42] that I think turned out and and they [03:45] the present, the gift they made to us [03:47] was very significant and they said they [03:49] were going to do it and it happened. [03:51] And they're the only ones that could [03:52] have done it, Jennifer. [03:54] Okay. So, that's the opening of his [03:56] remarks there from yesterday. And [04:00] let's just unpack what we heard before [04:01] we get to the Iranian state media. First [04:04] of all, you see something that I talked [04:07] about right from beginning of the war, [04:08] from before the war, [04:10] that there could be something that isn't [04:12] regime change and the Trump [04:14] administration [04:16] excuse me, could try to sell it as [04:18] regime change. And you saw it right [04:20] there on camera [04:21] where Trump is saying, "This is regime [04:23] change. This really is regime change." [04:25] What he's trying to do, what he's doing [04:27] is saying that dealing with these third [04:31] tier, if you take his formulation, [04:34] dealing with these third tier members of [04:37] the regime is basically regime change [04:39] because it's a different group of [04:40] people. [04:41] Now, that's not regime change for the [04:45] Iranian people, that's for sure and [04:46] certainly wouldn't satisfy the Israelis. [04:48] So, remember, this regime has this [04:50] massive international apparatus of [04:52] proxies and trafficking of in drugs, [04:55] human trafficking all over the world. [04:57] It's a huge multinational criminal [04:59] apparatus. We've also oppressed their [05:01] people. The criminals who've been [05:03] massacring their people are all still [05:06] there. Uh well, not they're not all [05:08] still there but meaning that it would [05:10] leave that structure intact. This is [05:12] Trump trying to tout a kind of Venezuela [05:15] model. [05:16] And if you don't know what I'm talking [05:18] about, watch previous videos or um you [05:20] know, just look it up. He's looking at [05:22] this Venezuela model here and trying to [05:25] tout it as regime change. And then he [05:28] says that the way he knows he's talking [05:29] to the right people is because the [05:30] things that they that they say they [05:32] they're going to deliver on, they [05:33] deliver on. And uh and negotiations. [05:38] Okay, so that's the American line that [05:39] there are negotiations happening. Now, [05:41] let's go over to our favorite Iranian uh [05:44] state outlet, WANA, and see what they [05:46] have to say. So, this is the front page [05:48] today, WANA news front page. Top news. [05:52] And if you if you've been with me [05:53] before, you know that the top news is [05:55] never actually a news item. [05:57] What's the news item? Ceasefire or [06:00] deception. Tehran's doubts amid war. [06:04] Now, look at some of the other headlines [06:07] before we get into that story. How did [06:08] Iranians react to Trump's rhetorical [06:10] retreat? What was Trump trying to [06:13] achieve with his new Iran remarks? Trump [06:15] delays Iran strike. Tehran denies talks. [06:19] You see, this is all It's all about [06:22] meaning the top four stories here, the [06:25] the top one and the next three [06:27] are all about [06:29] are all about the you know, what was [06:31] Trump trying to you know, trying to [06:32] interpret Trump and what is he trying to [06:34] accomplish. But let's go to the lead [06:36] story. Ceasefire or or deception, [06:38] Tehran's doubts amid war. As the war [06:41] between Iran and the coalition of the [06:42] United States and Israel enters its 26th [06:45] day, renewed talk of negotiations and a [06:48] potential ceasefire has begun to surface [06:51] in Western and Israeli media circles. [06:54] Reports, including those from Yedioth [06:56] Ahronoth, that's an Israeli paper, [06:58] suggest that Washington is pushing for a [07:00] temporary ceasefire lasting roughly 1 [07:02] month to allow space for discussing a [07:04] broader agreement framework. [07:07] Okay, and then it talks about how how [07:09] this all started [07:11] because the Americans and Israelis [07:12] started it and how they're at fault. [07:14] From the perspective of analysts close [07:17] to Tehran, and this is standard in their [07:20] in the in the regime media, where they [07:22] just talk about analysts and they don't [07:23] name them or they say experts say and [07:25] they don't name them. They do it all the [07:27] time and we'll see it a few times in [07:28] these pieces. From the perspective of [07:30] analysts close to Tehran, however, the [07:32] ceasefire proposal is not viewed as a [07:34] genuine step towards peace but rather as [07:38] part of a recurring pattern, one in [07:40] which military pressure is paired with [07:42] diplomatic signaling. In this view, [07:45] similar pauses in past confrontations [07:48] have primarily served as opportunities [07:50] to regroup forces and manage wartime [07:53] costs rather than paving the way for [07:55] lasting de-escalation. In other words, [07:57] Trump is deceiving us and this isn't [07:59] real negotiations, it's just a strategic [08:02] pause for him to then um uh you know, [08:06] get regroup the forces, manage the [08:09] wartime costs, and plan for the next [08:12] stage of attack. Within this framework, [08:15] the push for a ceasefire by the [08:16] administration of Donald Trump is [08:17] interpreted by some, there it is again, [08:19] they're always very vague, experts and [08:21] some some people say, as a reflection of [08:24] mounting pressure. Trump's caving to [08:27] pressure, that's part of the narrative. [08:29] Beyond the battlefield, the war has [08:30] imposed significant economic strain, [08:33] including disruptions to global energy [08:35] markets and rising operational costs. A [08:38] temporary halt in fighting could offer a [08:40] chance to ease these pressures and [08:42] prepare for subsequent phases of the [08:44] conflict. So, that's why Trump is doing [08:45] it. He doesn't really want to end the [08:46] conflict. He is Trump is [08:49] cracking under pressure. That's the [08:51] narrative here. A key variable shaping [08:54] Tehran's position is the shift in its [08:55] internal and strategic calculus. [08:59] What do they mean by that? [09:01] Iran has sustained substantial losses, [09:03] including high-level casualties and [09:05] damage to both military and civilian [09:06] infrastructure. [09:08] Under such conditions, the cost-benefit [09:10] analysis surrounding negotiations has [09:13] evolved. Observers note, there it is [09:16] again, that the notion of negotiating [09:18] for compromise is now met with [09:20] considerable skepticism. So, the thrust [09:22] of the piece is, so far, Trump is [09:26] cracking under pressure and that this [09:28] whole negotiation thing is Trump uh [09:31] is showing that Trump is is is feeling [09:33] the stress and wants to end this thing. [09:36] So, it's Trump bowing to pressure. And [09:38] number two, that we don't believe him, [09:41] we the Iranians don't believe him and [09:44] they're skeptical. Okay. [09:46] At the same time, diplomacy has not been [09:48] entirely ruled out. There are [09:50] indications that indirect communication [09:52] channels remain active, messages [09:54] exchanged. However, Tehran's overarching [09:57] stance centers on a core principle. And [09:59] now we have a bolded sentence. Again, if [10:03] you've been if you've seen these updates [10:04] before, we always pay attention to the [10:07] the occasional bolded sentence. What [10:09] does it say? [10:11] Any pause in hostilities must be [10:14] accompanied by credible guarantees [10:17] preventing further military action. Now, [10:18] look at this piece. [10:20] All this text, that's the only bolded [10:23] sentence. Any pause in hostilities must [10:25] be accompanied by credible guarantees [10:28] preventing further military action. That [10:30] is what they want. [10:32] Any pause in hostilities, which means [10:33] that if they cut a deal, it's going to [10:36] come with they're going to demand one of [10:38] their [10:39] it's the only bolded sentence. Their [10:41] demand is going to be a guarantee [10:45] that there won't be further attacks, [10:46] which raises a very important point. [10:50] Do the Americans have the ability [10:53] to guarantee that the Israelis won't [10:55] carry out further attacks if the [10:57] Israelis don't want to go along with [11:00] this? And the Israelis have signaled in [11:02] multiple ways that they don't believe in [11:04] these negotiations. They certainly don't [11:07] like who the Americans have chosen to [11:09] negotiate with if all the reports are [11:10] true and they seem to be credible. [11:13] I've talked about that in some previous [11:14] videos. [11:16] The Iranians are going to demand it. [11:18] This position reflects a broader shift [11:20] in the narrative of the war. [11:22] Unlike the early stages when the [11:24] initiative largely with its adversaries, [11:27] Iran is now seeking a more assertive [11:29] role in shaping the terms of any [11:31] potential end to the conflict. You see [11:32] here here's what they're doing with the [11:34] framing of where we are in the war with [11:36] these negotiations. Trump is looking at [11:38] a negotiation with a vanquished enemy [11:41] who is negotiating the terms of their [11:43] defeat. That's how he's interpreting it, [11:46] but that's not how they're seeing it. [11:48] That is not how they're seeing it. [11:50] That's not how they're framing it. [11:51] They're framing it that Trump feels [11:53] pressured [11:54] and [11:56] and because he's feeling pressured by [11:58] oil markets and by other strains and [12:00] domestic strains, he wants an off-ramp. [12:03] And if he's being sincere, but we also [12:06] don't believe that he's being sincere, [12:08] but if we get our guarantees that [12:09] they'll really be they'll were really [12:11] actually be an end to all attacks, then [12:14] the regime can survive and then we're [12:17] then we're willing to go along with a [12:18] ceasefire and [12:21] we are being assertive. We're shaping [12:24] the results. [12:26] Okay? We're shaping the results. Trump [12:27] is not imposing anything on us. [12:30] Okay? Shaping the terms of any potential [12:32] end to the conflict. In this context, [12:33] accepting a ceasefire without securing [12:36] fundamental conditions is seen as a [12:38] strategic miscalculation. In sum, when [12:41] the proposal for a 1-month ceasefire may [12:42] appear a while it may appear on the [12:45] surface to be a diplomatic opening, it [12:47] is met with deep skepticism in Tehran. [12:51] The continuation of intense military [12:52] operations alongside diplomatic [12:54] overtures suggest that the conflict has [12:56] yet to reach a decisive turning point [12:58] and its outcome will likely depend on [12:59] developments on the ground and the [13:01] evolving balance of power in the weeks [13:02] ahead. [13:04] And then we have this one. Trump's lack [13:07] Trump lacks balance. Iran's readiness [13:09] forced enemy retreat Iran's readiness [13:12] forced enemy retreat. This is all from [13:15] today, by the way. All the stories we're [13:16] looking at are from today. So, all in [13:18] the same day's paper. [13:20] So, here we have this piece of news or [13:22] analysis, whatever you want to call it. [13:24] A member of the of the National Security [13:26] and Foreign Policy Commission of the [13:28] Parliament stated [13:30] that Trump's that Trump lacks balance in [13:32] his speech and emphasized that Iran's [13:35] readiness for reciprocal response has [13:38] caused the enemy to retreat. [13:41] Look at that opening line. [13:44] Trump lacks balance in his speech and [13:47] and Iran's readiness for reciprocal [13:50] response has caused a retreat. [13:53] Okay, so this is this is how they're [13:54] shaping it, right? The Americans are [13:56] panicking or at the very least under [13:59] pressure and [14:01] they're now retreating. Esmaeil Kosari [14:04] Kosari reacted to the the contradictory [14:08] remarks of the US president by [14:09] describing him as arrogant and selfish [14:12] noting that Trump often retreats when [14:14] faced with Iran's firm reaction. [14:17] The Tehran representative described [14:19] threats against infrastructure [14:21] uh right as as a sign of this as as a [14:24] erratic nature. He noted that based on [14:26] Iran's decisive reaction and the [14:28] pressure from regional countries [14:30] regarding the risks to the people of the [14:32] region, Trump extended his self-imposed [14:35] deadline. In other words, the extension [14:37] of the deadline of Trump's ultimatum was [14:39] because Trump himself is unsure and is [14:42] under pressure and is buckling under [14:44] pressure. [14:45] Kosari stated that the enemy is waging [14:47] psychological warfare to influence [14:49] public opinion, but Iran has already [14:51] anticipated these moves. They're a step [14:53] ahead. He emphasized that while the [14:54] enemy lacks sound judgment, Iran takes [14:57] these matters seriously and remains [14:59] fully prepared for a reciprocal response [15:01] to any action. Regarding the [15:03] requirements for any potential [15:04] agreement, the lawmaker mentioned [15:06] several key demands including the [15:09] control of the Strait of Hormuz [15:11] and payment of reparations since the US [15:14] and Israeli regime were the aggressors. [15:16] So, here they're saying they only [15:17] mention two things here among the among [15:19] the key demands. We've already seen the [15:20] demand for the end of hostilities in the [15:22] other article. In this one, we have the [15:24] demand that Iran retain control of the [15:26] Strait of Hormuz. Trump has ruled that [15:28] out. [15:29] And that the United States and Israel [15:31] pay reparations to Iran. He further [15:33] stressed the necessity of removing US [15:35] bases from the region, another demand, [15:38] and warned the occupying regime [15:42] that's Israel that Iran maintains the [15:44] right to confront any aggression against [15:47] the resistance front. The resistance [15:49] front is the Iranian regime's name for [15:53] its proxy network. [15:55] Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis, [15:59] Palestinian Islamic Jihad. They call [16:01] that the resistance front. So, look what [16:03] they say here. Part of the terms of [16:04] their agreement [16:06] are that they're still going to manage [16:08] is that they're still going to have a [16:09] proxy network. It's insane. [16:12] Other major demands highlighted by [16:14] Kosari include the provision of [16:16] international guarantees to prevent [16:18] future US aggression. There you go. That [16:20] we saw in the previous piece. [16:22] The complete lifting of sanctions and [16:23] return of all assets stolen and taken [16:25] abroad by the former Shah. Okay? So, [16:28] this is [16:29] uh this is [16:31] this is a funny piece from a propaganda [16:32] perspective cuz what is it? It's [16:34] basically a press release saying what [16:36] their demands are [16:38] and say and and uh positioning Trump as [16:42] weak and confused and under pressure. [16:48] So, they put it into the mouth of some [16:51] member of the Parliament [16:54] who's a representative from Tehran and [16:56] they make it an article about stuff he [16:58] said. [16:59] Okay? There you go. So, we see what they [17:01] want. Now, this is a really interesting [17:03] piece here. [17:05] How did Iranians react to Trump's [17:07] rhetorical retreat? [17:09] How did they react? [17:12] So, this is an interesting piece. We'll [17:13] look at the opening and we'll it's a [17:14] very long piece. We're not going to read [17:16] all of it. We're going to jump to the [17:17] end after we after I I tell you what [17:18] it's all about. So, this is this piece, [17:20] the first half of it, is all about how [17:22] regular how regular Iranians are [17:26] reacting to Trump's move to [17:28] negotiations, which they're calling a [17:30] retreat. Remember, they're interpreting [17:32] the the the desire for negotiations on [17:35] the American side as a sign of weakness [17:37] because if you're winning a war, why [17:38] would you negotiate? Why would you call [17:39] for negotiations? [17:41] If you're winning a war, [17:44] you just keep winning. [17:45] That's the way they think. Why would you [17:46] ever stop? Trump says he wants to stop [17:48] cuz he wants to prevent more loss of [17:50] life. [17:51] He's thinking he's a he's a he's an [17:53] ethical Western person. [17:56] But they're looking at him and saying [17:57] he's retreating. [17:59] So, how do the Iranian people react to [18:01] this? Hours before Trump's deadline for [18:03] reopening the Strait of Hormuz was set [18:04] to expire and after threats to target [18:07] Iran's electricity infrastructure, the [18:09] US president suddenly changed his tone. [18:12] He stepped back from the prospect of an [18:13] attack, extended the deadline by 5 days, [18:16] and claimed that there were constructive [18:18] talks, but of course the Iranians [18:20] uh denied it. And then it goes into what [18:23] people were saying. A debate intensified [18:25] over Trump's claim that talks were [18:27] underway. [18:29] And then we have reactions from several [18:31] Tehran residents. [18:33] One Tehran resident, notice there's no [18:35] name, [18:37] it's a fake person. One Tehran resident [18:39] responding to the latest messaging said, [18:41] "We should not back down. He didn't even [18:43] let the smallest crime go unanswered. [18:44] The smallest of them was the Dana [18:46] destroyer." That was a a ship attacked [18:48] by the Americans. "Our boys were burned [18:49] alive because of that crime. We should [18:51] never back down because of what he did." [18:54] And end of quote from one Tehran [18:56] resident. More than a purely emotional [18:58] outburst, the statement reflects a [19:00] broader sentiment among part of Iranian [19:02] society. In the middle of a war, any [19:04] talk of negotiation that comes [19:06] hand-in-hand with threats is no longer [19:08] seen as diplomas as diplomacy but as [19:11] deceit. Then it quotes another citizen [19:14] saying that we shouldn't trust Trump. [19:17] And then a woman in Tehran saying that [19:20] uh you know, again, it doesn't name her. [19:21] It just says a woman in Tehran told [19:23] Juana news that if Trump really cared [19:25] about the Iranian people, he wouldn't be [19:27] uh you know, he he he wouldn't be [19:29] threatening human uh [19:31] you know, civilian infrastructure. [19:34] This remark highlights one of the most [19:35] important social layers of the story. [19:37] The public reaction is not necessarily [19:39] an ideological defense of the political [19:41] system, but a rejection of the notion [19:44] that external pressure, sanctions, and [19:46] military threats can be legitimized [19:48] under the label of supporting the [19:50] people. This is a very interesting [19:52] paragraph. [19:54] So, here [19:56] they know [19:58] that in the West [20:00] everyone knows that the majority of [20:03] Iranians hate the regime. [20:06] So, what they're doing here, it's almost [20:08] like a little like a like a limited [20:09] hangout. They're saying, "Look, [20:11] the Iranian people are really upset, and [20:13] they want to they want to signal to the [20:14] West [20:16] that the aggression and the threats are [20:19] turning the Iranian people [20:23] back towards support for the regime, or [20:25] at the very least turning the Iranian [20:27] people against the Americans, against [20:29] the Israelis." [20:31] Okay? [20:33] But, they don't want to make the case [20:35] that these people are are turning [20:37] against the Americans because they're [20:38] now ideologically supportive of the [20:40] regime, cuz that's not plausible. [20:42] So, look at look what they say. This [20:44] remark highlights, meaning they're [20:45] quoting these people in Tehran who are [20:47] upset. [20:48] And the last one they quoted was this [20:50] woman in Tehran [20:52] who was saying that that if Trump really [20:54] cared about the Iranian people, he [20:56] wouldn't be doing all this. [20:58] And then it says [21:00] that [21:01] much of the public reaction [21:03] is not an ideological defense of the [21:06] political system, meaning they're not [21:08] supportive of the regime. We're [21:09] admitting that, but it's a rejection of [21:11] the notion that external pressure [21:15] is supportive of the people. [21:17] Right? They're trying to signal [21:19] that the Iranian people are going to [21:20] turn against America. [21:23] And this is a narrative that I that [21:24] we've heard out there. In fact, when I [21:26] was on Steve Bannon's War Room earlier [21:28] this week [21:29] arguing with him, pushing back on him, [21:31] it was really over this point where [21:33] Steve was parroting this propaganda that [21:36] he'd heard that the Iranian people are [21:39] rallying around the regime. And I was [21:41] basically saying to him, "That's insane. [21:43] That's abso- There's no basis in reality [21:45] for that." [21:46] Okay. [21:47] And it And then it goes on with more of [21:49] this, that the public is tired of [21:50] negotiations and don't trust them. Now, [21:52] towards the end of the piece, there's [21:54] another man in Tehran, blah blah blah. [21:58] But, look what happens down near the end [21:59] of the piece. [22:01] Here. [22:03] It turns into a piece of analysis. It [22:05] stops with all of the quotes from the [22:07] people in Tehran, and at the bottom of [22:09] this piece, it's almost like one big [22:11] buried lead. A buried lead in a news [22:13] story is that often key information that [22:15] is being conveyed in a news item [22:18] is left for the end because they want to [22:20] put it out there, but they don't want it [22:21] to be the headline. [22:23] Look what So, look at this. This is This [22:25] is the key of everything we're reading [22:27] in this video. [22:28] Why doesn't Tehran consider this [22:30] negotiation? [22:33] Remember, the title of this piece was [22:34] supposed to be about how Iranian regular [22:36] people are reacting. [22:38] But, here's a piece of analysis. On the [22:40] surface, Trump says contacts have been [22:42] taking place. Tehran says no [22:44] negotiations are underway. [22:46] Okay? This contradiction is not merely [22:48] semantic. It reflects a strategic [22:49] disagreement over how the current [22:51] situation is defined. [22:53] The dominant view in Tehran is that even [22:56] if messages have been exchanged, they've [22:58] been mediation, warnings, message [23:02] passing, or crisis management efforts, [23:04] not negotiation in the real sense of the [23:06] word. [23:08] So, they're saying, "Yeah, we have been [23:10] talking." They don't want to say that [23:11] Trump's that the Americans are all [23:12] lying, that there's been And when they [23:14] say there's no negotiations, so they're [23:15] saying, "Yeah, there's been some [23:16] contact, but it's not a real [23:18] negotiation." [23:19] For the Islamic Republic, the term [23:21] negotiation carries heavy political [23:23] baggage. Accepting it in the middle of [23:25] attacks and threats could be interpreted [23:29] as a sign of retreat. This is an [23:30] interesting tell. They're saying the [23:32] reason that we refuse to acknowledge [23:34] that it's a negotiation [23:36] is that we don't negotiate under threats [23:39] and under fire. [23:41] And if we this is actually a negotiation [23:45] then it would be a sign of retreat, but [23:46] we don't negotiate under fire. [23:49] Okay? Now, look at this. [23:51] That is why Tehran is trying to cement [23:54] the following narrative. [23:58] And then three narrative points that [24:00] they are saying that Tehran wants to [24:03] cement. [24:05] Such an interesting thing. It's almost [24:06] like they're telling you what they're [24:07] doing. [24:09] They're telling you what the propaganda [24:11] machine is trying to do. Tehran is [24:13] trying to cement this narrative. [24:15] Point number one, the United States did [24:17] not enter talks from a position of [24:18] strength. [24:20] Point number two, rather, after [24:22] threatening Iran's vital infrastructure [24:24] and recognizing the potential costs of [24:26] escalation, it moderated its tone. In [24:28] other words, Trump threatened to bomb [24:29] the energy facility [24:31] of the of the electrical facility, and [24:33] then realized it was a mistake, and then [24:35] backed off. [24:36] So, the United States is not in a [24:37] position of strength. [24:39] Trump made a mistake. [24:41] And now, by claiming constructive talks [24:45] it, meaning the United States, is trying [24:46] both to calm markets and preserve an [24:49] image of psychological superiority. [24:54] At this stage of the crisis, Trump's [24:56] remarks [24:57] about postponing an attack, the Strait [24:59] of Hormuz, and constructive talks cannot [25:01] be viewed as a simple diplomatic [25:02] statement. They serve simultaneous [25:05] purposes on three fronts. Okay, so now [25:08] they're saying that Trump's whole [25:10] whole postponement of the attack and [25:13] talking about how there's constructive [25:15] dialogue is is really is not just a [25:18] diplomatic statement but it's actually a [25:20] strategic move, and this is [25:24] what it's trying to accomplish. [25:27] Number one, the military front. A [25:29] temporary reduction in the likelihood of [25:31] a direct strike on Iranian [25:32] infrastructure without fully abandoning [25:35] the threat. In other words, Trump [25:36] extends the [25:37] the deadline, and that way he can back [25:39] off of striking the infrastructure, but [25:41] he hasn't abandoned the threat. Number [25:43] two, the energy front. Preventing a [25:46] sudden shock to oil markets and [25:48] containing global fears over the closure [25:51] or insecurity of the Strait of Hormuz. [25:53] And number three, the psychological [25:55] front. Projecting the impression that [25:57] Iran, under military pressure, has been [26:00] pushed towards contact and dialogue. So, [26:02] it's saying, "This is why Trump's [26:03] actually doing this. He wants to calm [26:05] the energy markets. He wants to [26:08] uh he wants to keep the threat on the [26:10] energy infrastructure without actually [26:12] fulfilling it. [26:13] And he wants to project the [26:16] psychological advantage that Iran has [26:18] been pushed to dialogue." Remember Trump [26:20] said, "They called me. I didn't call [26:21] them." [26:23] But, what emerges from both the [26:24] reactions in Tehran and the official [26:26] statements is that inside Iran, at least [26:28] for now, this narrative has found few [26:31] buyers. In other words, we're not buying [26:32] into Trump's smoke and mirrors. The [26:34] reaction recorded in Tehran, recorded in [26:37] Tehran. The reactions recorded in Tehran [26:39] reveal an important point. So, now [26:41] they're referring back to all of those [26:42] people on the street, those men on the [26:44] street reactions that were the first [26:46] half of this article, of those unnamed [26:48] people. [26:49] And it says, "Iranian society is not [26:51] necessarily monolithic. [26:53] But, in the face of external pressure [26:54] and Washington's contradictory [26:56] narratives, a shared skepticism has [26:58] taken shape." This is echoing the same [27:00] narrative [27:02] that we saw earlier [27:03] that And look, it's bolded. This is a [27:05] bolded sentence, that Iranian society, [27:07] while not monolithic [27:09] when the external pressure [27:12] creates a consensus around skepticism of [27:15] the Americans. [27:16] That the the pressure from the Americans [27:18] is causing the people to move back [27:21] toward and not necessarily towards the [27:23] regime, but become more hostile or [27:26] skeptical of the Americans. [27:29] Some are angry, some are exhausted, some [27:30] are anti-war, some some distrust both [27:33] sides. But, across nearly all these [27:36] voices, one line keeps repeating. Bolded [27:38] line. People do not want war, but [27:40] neither are they persuaded by peace that [27:42] comes through threats, sanctions, and [27:45] attacks. [27:47] And that's pretty much it. Okay. [27:49] And finally, what was Trump trying to [27:52] achieve with his new Iran remarks? [27:54] And then So, this piece, it most of it [27:57] is just quoting Trump and insulting him. [28:00] Um and stuff that we've already said. [28:05] But, then look what it says down here. [28:08] All right, it talks about how how Trump [28:09] said they can never have a nuclear [28:11] weapon, how his the things that he said [28:13] were were uh were contradictory. [28:16] And this And this is the part I wanted [28:17] to read. Trump also commented on Iranian [28:20] oil exports. "I just want as much oil in [28:22] the system as possible. Whatever little [28:24] money Iran makes is not going to make a [28:26] difference." [28:28] This position comes at a moment when the [28:29] crisis between Iran and the United [28:31] States has become one of the most [28:32] sensitive points of the intersection [28:34] between [28:35] regional security and the global energy [28:38] market. [28:40] Any threat will reverberate through oil [28:42] prices everywhere. [28:44] Was Trump's 5-day window a real delay or [28:48] a strategy to manage oil shock and [28:50] psychological warfare? [28:52] Look at this. This is absolutely [28:54] fascinating. If Trump's remarks are read [28:57] not merely at the level of rhetoric, but [29:00] in the broader context of timing, energy [29:03] markets, and narrative warfare, the [29:05] 5-day deadline he reportedly set before [29:07] a possible strike on Iran's critical [29:09] infrastructure may represent far more [29:12] than a simple pause or a full retreat. [29:15] It may instead be part of a [29:17] multi-layered strategy designed to [29:19] simultaneously manage the battlefield, [29:22] the oil market, and public perception. [29:24] These are the three things they keep [29:26] talking about. In previous articles that [29:28] we've read in this video, we've seen [29:29] these are the three things they believe [29:31] that Trump is trying to accomplish. [29:33] Manage the battlefield, manage the oil [29:35] market, and manage public perception. [29:37] One serious possibility [29:39] is that the 5-day window is not simply a [29:42] diplomatic pause, but a calculated [29:44] effort to push the crisis toward the end [29:47] of the trading week when global [29:50] oil markets are closed. If a strike were [29:52] to occur at that point, the initial [29:55] shock could be partially softened by the [29:57] two-day market closure, reducing the [30:00] immediate psychological and speculative [30:02] spike. In other words, if an attack [30:05] happens while markets are open, oil [30:07] prices could react and sharply and [30:10] instantly. If it happens over the [30:12] weekend, part of that panic is absorbed [30:15] during the closure, making Monday's [30:17] reopening potentially less explosive. [30:21] And this is why and then it goes on to [30:23] say that this is why some analysts, of [30:25] course never naming them, say that [30:27] Trump's 5-day deadline is just really a [30:29] smoke screen. [30:31] Um [30:32] because there's and that and that it's [30:34] really just a cover for more attacks [30:36] that are coming. [30:39] Uh and then it talks about how this is [30:40] coming at a time where, you know, where [30:42] Iran has has accomplished many things on [30:44] the battlefield and the Americans are [30:45] backing off. [30:47] And we'll jump down here. The picture is [30:49] increasingly clear. What is unfolding is [30:51] not just a nuclear bargaining round, nor [30:54] merely a simple military threat. It is a [30:56] three-front war being fought [30:58] simultaneously across the battlefield, [31:01] the oil market, the psychology of public [31:04] perception. [31:05] Okay, that is what WANA is saying today. [31:08] And just for good measure, we'll go over [31:09] to Tasnim. [31:11] I mentioned that I mentioned that Tasnim [31:12] is another Iranian state media. Here's [31:14] the difference between them. WANA is [31:16] more of their [31:18] narrative shaping propaganda machine. [31:20] And that's why I'm much more interested [31:21] in it. [31:22] Tasnim is much more of a kind of news [31:24] ticker, but here's the other difference. [31:26] Tasnim is more transparently the [31:29] mouthpiece of not the government of [31:31] Iran, but the IRGC, the the Islamic [31:35] Revolutionary Guard Corps, the bad guys, [31:37] the guys who are really running the [31:38] show. This is their [31:40] English language outward-facing news [31:42] outlet. [31:43] And look at their headlines today. Okay, [31:45] this is today's Tasnim. [31:48] First, Iranian intelligence foils [31:50] Zionist plot, arrests a bunch of agents. [31:53] Israeli army fuming at Tasnim saying [31:55] that [31:56] the Israelis don't like something that [31:58] they wrote. [31:59] And then it has Qalibaf warns US not to [32:02] test Iran's self-defense resolve. [32:05] And then Trump caught manipulating [32:07] markets with fabricated Iran talks [32:10] announcement. [32:11] On WANA, the top four stories were all [32:13] about Trump and the negotiations. On [32:16] Tasnim, we don't [32:18] the top stories are just about how it [32:20] you know Iran [32:23] fighting back and cracking down. And [32:26] they and they mention the negotiations [32:27] only in the context of saying that [32:29] they're fabricated and fake. [32:32] So, that's an interesting contrast [32:34] there. [32:35] Uh all right, so that's our review of [32:37] Iranian state media as it stands right [32:39] now. Just to sum things up, what we're [32:41] seeing here [32:43] is that the Iranians are are are their [32:46] their narrative is we don't trust that [32:49] Trump isn't deceiving us. [32:51] And he's only moving to negotiations out [32:54] of weakness, out of indecisiveness, out [32:57] of looking for an off-ramp. [32:59] And it shows that what we're doing is [33:00] working. [33:02] And by the way, it could be true. If [33:04] Trump actually secures this this deal [33:07] with Qalibaf or these other guys, even [33:10] though he sits there in the Oval Office [33:11] that I opened with that video claiming [33:13] that this is regime change, it will not [33:16] be viewed by as regime change by anybody [33:18] in the Middle East and certainly anybody [33:20] in Iran, including the Iranian people.
