Transcript [00:00] Hey everyone. So, I'm back in Israel, as [00:02] you can see. [00:03] And I'd like to share with you a clip of [00:06] Victor Davis Hanson talking about where [00:08] we are right now with vis-a-vis Iran and [00:10] the Middle East strategically. [00:13] And he talks about what is Trump's [00:14] calculus, what is with the Iranians [00:16] calculus, what is Israelis calculus, and [00:19] I want to expand on the points he makes. [00:20] I kind of want to use what he says as a [00:22] springboard to add my own two cents. So, [00:25] I'm going to be stopping this video at a [00:27] couple of points to comment. Let's get [00:29] right to it. [00:31] Victor Davis Hanson. Here we go. Years [00:34] no one hasn't been able not not even [00:37] Obama, not Biden, not the Europeans to [00:39] negotiate successfully with the Iranian [00:41] theocracy. [00:43] Their currency is delay, delay, [00:46] dissimulation, lie, lie, lie. [00:49] And so here [00:50] tragically [00:52] the war was kinetically over [00:55] in 30 days. Now we're into [00:58] the high 60s, right? We had all [01:01] um [01:02] March and April, 60. Now we're into [01:05] Well, it's going to be 70 days. [01:08] And most of that has been this [01:10] negotiation. And what has it got us? We [01:12] haven't got anything from them. It's [01:14] always let's go to Pakistan, let's do [01:17] this and this is what they want. So, [01:20] they have closed the window, the [01:21] original window from eight months to the [01:24] midterms, to six and counting. [01:27] And now we're right at six months. [01:31] And so the time is running out for [01:32] Donald Trump to have enough [01:35] a big enough window to flip over the [01:38] economy, get gas prices down. Cuz today [01:41] the jobs report was 115,000 [01:44] new jobs. It was more than twice what [01:47] the dismal [01:49] economists said it would be. They're [01:50] always downplaying what can happen. So, [01:52] the elements of a boom are there. [01:55] From with the other data, you know, the [01:57] market. These people know what they're [01:58] doing. [02:00] Supposedly, they're very confident. And [02:02] all it's all it's There's just two [02:04] things holding it back, and that's the [02:05] price of gasoline and the pessimism [02:08] about what's going to happen with this [02:10] war, which is augmented or accentuated [02:13] by this drawn-out negotiation. So, at [02:16] some point [02:18] uh don't And why is it drawn out? [02:20] Because we don't know There's really [02:22] only one reason if you reduce it down. [02:25] We don't know how many rockets they [02:28] have. [02:30] Okay, he's going to talk about how [02:32] because we don't know how many rockets [02:33] they have, that's that's what is holding [02:36] the Americans uh [02:39] uh in this delay pattern that the [02:41] Iranians have. So, we'll get to that in [02:43] a bit. I'll I'll play the clip from [02:45] there. But first, I want to comment on [02:46] what he just said. He's talking about [02:48] the Iranians have the you know, their [02:49] whole strategy is delay, delay, delay [02:51] because they believe that Trump is under [02:52] the gun in terms of time because of the [02:54] midterms. [02:55] Um [02:57] And once once they think that Trump is [03:00] up against the clock and wants this to [03:01] end quickly, they know that with every [03:04] day that they delay, they get closer and [03:06] closer to the chances of survival, and [03:07] they squeeze [03:09] and they squeeze Trump. But there's [03:10] another element there that he doesn't [03:12] mention, [03:13] which I want to share with you. So, let [03:14] me just pull this down [03:16] and add this here. So, here's a headline [03:19] from a couple of days ago, and it's [03:21] about the upcoming meeting of Trump and [03:23] President Xi Jinping [03:26] of China, okay, the dictator of China. [03:28] Trump and China's Xi set for talks [03:30] spanning Iran, nuclear, trade, and AI. [03:34] Okay, this is from 2 days ago. [03:37] US President Donald Trump and Chinese [03:38] President Xi Jinping are set to discuss [03:40] Iran, Taiwan, artificial intelligence, [03:42] and nuclear weapons as they weigh [03:45] extending a critical minerals deal, [03:47] according to US officials previewing [03:48] Trump's 2-day visit to China this week. [03:50] The leaders of the world's two largest [03:51] economies [03:52] will hold their first face-to-face talks [03:54] in more than 6 months as they try to [03:56] stabilize [03:58] ties strained by trade, [04:00] the US and Israeli war with Iran, and [04:03] other areas of disagreement. Trump is [04:05] scheduled to arrive in Beijing on [04:07] Wednesday ahead of talks [04:09] set to take place Thursday and Friday. [04:11] It will be his first trip to China since [04:12] 2017. [04:14] The US and China are expected to agree [04:16] to forums to facilitate mutual trade and [04:18] investment. [04:20] Talks about buying airplanes. [04:24] And there's a little bit about trade and [04:26] and look at this. [04:31] The Trump Xi talks [04:34] are also expected to veer into areas [04:36] that have long been a source of US-China [04:38] tension, including Iran, Taiwan, and [04:41] nuclear arms. China maintains ties with [04:43] Iran and remains a major consumer of its [04:46] oil exports. Trump has been leaning on [04:48] China to use his influence to push [04:50] Tehran to make a deal with Washington [04:54] and end the conflict that began when the [04:55] US and Israel launched strikes on Iran [04:57] in late February. [04:59] The Trump administration also has [05:00] pressed China on its dealings with [05:02] Russia. Okay. [05:05] The president has spoken multiple times [05:06] with the General Secretary Xi Jinping [05:07] about the topic of Iran and about the [05:09] topic of Russia to include the revenue [05:11] that China provides to both those [05:13] regimes, [05:14] as well as dual-use goods, components, [05:16] and parts, not to mention the potential [05:18] of weapons exports. I expect the [05:20] conversations the conversation to [05:22] continue. [05:27] Okay. So, what you see here is that [05:30] Trump is I mean, he's it comes right out [05:32] and says [05:33] that Trump [05:35] has been leaning on China to use his [05:37] influence to push Tehran to make a deal. [05:42] So, what is the So, what are the [05:43] Iranians doing now? So, what the [05:44] Iranians are doing now is they are [05:48] just taunting the Trump administration. [05:50] Here, take a look at this news item that [05:52] I just saw. [05:54] Look at this news item in Vienna from [05:55] today, okay? [05:59] This is amazing. Look at this. [06:02] Iran's message to Trump, accept defeat [06:05] or return to war. [06:07] Which sounds like it's the most insane [06:08] thing to say. Accept defeat or return to [06:10] war. They're taunting him. Iran has [06:13] effectively blocked every path through [06:14] which the United States could exit [06:16] claiming victory. At this point, [06:18] fulfilling the Islamic Republic's [06:19] maximum demands is seen as the only way [06:21] for Trump to escape the Persian Gulf [06:22] quagmire. [06:24] Accepting Iran's authority of the Strait [06:26] of Hormuz, ending the war on all fronts. [06:29] Dismantling US military bases across the [06:31] region, paying reparations, and [06:32] recognizing Iran's nuclear rights. This [06:34] is the most maximalist statement. Since [06:36] the White House views these conditions [06:37] as an outright defeat, it continues to [06:39] resist accepting them. [06:42] This seems to be insane. But, look at [06:45] this statement down here. [06:47] That leaves only one possible outcome, [06:49] return to war because the issue was that [06:51] the current ceasefire itself is [06:53] portrayed [06:54] as the result of America's defeat on the [06:57] battlefield. Look at that. [07:00] It's wild. [07:02] Iran had previously warned that if it [07:03] were that if war were imposed on it, [07:05] Tehran would not allow the other side to [07:07] end it whenever they wished. What are [07:09] they doing here? [07:10] It seems suicidal. They're taunting him [07:12] saying, "The only solution is to go back [07:14] to war and and you know [07:16] and you think you can just cuz you [07:18] started the war that you can end it. You [07:19] can't end it whenever you want. We're [07:20] still going to fight. We're still at [07:22] war." Why are they taunting Trump? [07:24] Because they know that Trump wants a [07:26] deal and doesn't want there to be [07:28] kinetic action going on while he's [07:30] visiting Xi Jinping. It will make that [07:32] the dynamics of that visit with Xi [07:34] Jinping will be much more difficult for [07:35] Trump [07:36] under if there's [clears throat] kinetic [07:38] action going on, or at least that's how [07:39] the Iranians are reading the room. And [07:41] there's some and I think it's a good [07:44] read of Trump's behavior. [07:46] And what Trump has been doing he's been [07:47] saying he's pressuring the Chinese to [07:49] help. It's be very hard to argue with Xi [07:51] Jinping that he wants him to make a deal [07:53] make it part of some other dealings he [07:55] has with China. [07:56] >> [cough] [07:57] >> If if he's bombing while he's there. So [07:59] because they know that Trump isn't going [08:01] to attack now, it's a perfect time to [08:02] taunt him and make him look weak. [08:05] So that's what I think that they're [08:06] doing now. [08:07] Um, so that's but that and that all and [08:11] you put that together with this issue of [08:13] the midterms that Victor Davis Hanson [08:14] brings up and the and the delay tactics [08:17] they see this as a real opening for them [08:19] to survive. [08:21] All right, let's go back to Victor Davis [08:22] Hanson now. So he had just brought up [08:23] the fact that the big issue for the [08:25] Americans that's holding them back is we [08:27] don't know how many rockets they have. [08:28] I'm going to let him flesh out that [08:30] point a little bit more and then I'll [08:31] stop the video again and comment. [08:35] By that I mean we could we have 800 [08:37] Apaches [08:39] and warthogs that can be in the sky as [08:41] well with the goal. They can destroy all [08:43] the PT boats. They can destroy all the [08:45] port facilities in a few hours. They can [08:48] stop in other words the Iran ability to [08:50] harass shipping. [08:51] >> [snorts] [08:52] >> But they don't know how many missiles or [08:54] drones they have. [08:56] And if they are re- being replenished [08:59] through the Caspian Sea route or rail or [09:02] along the smuggled in along the border. [09:04] I doubt very many are getting through. [09:07] But that means [09:09] Now there are real rumors [09:11] out there. Um, [09:13] there's a lot of information coming out [09:14] that there are smuggling going on. It's [09:16] coming [09:16] coming from two directions from the [09:18] Caspian and also through Pakistan [09:21] over to the Iranian regime and that they [09:23] are somehow replenishing weapons. [09:26] Um, and the source of that would [09:27] probably be China who based on what I [09:30] just told you [09:31] China has an interest in squeeze in [09:33] using this current uh, tight spot that [09:35] Trump is in that Trump has painted [09:37] himself into uh, to try to squeeze him. [09:40] Uh, and emboldening the Iranian regime [09:42] more is a good way to squeeze uh, to [09:44] squeeze Trump and have him come in [09:45] weaker to the meeting in Beijing. Let's [09:48] see what else Victor Davis has to say [09:49] here. Is it as long as, you know, you [09:51] read maybe they have a thousand. So, [09:54] they are sending messages to our [09:56] negotiators that saying we have the [09:58] ability if you take us down to destroy [10:01] the Gulf [10:02] uh, oil industries, their dedi- [10:05] desalinization plants, their dis- [10:08] distillery, all that. [10:10] >> [gasps] [10:10] >> And that's holding us back. And so, they [10:13] and they just draw it out and draw it [10:15] out at some point and then Donald Trump [10:18] replies on their recent attacks you [10:20] mentioned on the tankers. He then [10:24] uses kinetic energy and he attacks [10:26] certain facilities in um, [10:29] Iran and he attacks tankers that try to [10:31] break through. But, and then he says [10:33] it's a love tap. Because he he's under a [10:36] deadline and he's got [10:39] all of the Republican congressmen, the [10:41] Republican Senate, the MAGA people, [10:43] they're all saying, "We were doing so [10:45] well and then the war came. [10:47] And if you can finish it, we There's a [10:50] good article, I think it's in American [10:52] Greatness Day by Fred Fleitz. He's a [10:54] very smart guy. [10:57] And he argues that we've done so much [10:59] damage to Iran and the nuclear [11:01] industrial [11:03] military complex that it would take them [11:05] years [11:06] to recover. And at any time that we [11:08] surveilled these mountain hideouts of [11:10] the imagery radium, they were to be [11:13] redeveloped, we could just do what we [11:14] did last June and hit them. But, more [11:18] more importantly, we could leave some [11:19] residual forces that had that ability or [11:22] their bases in the Gulf and then go [11:24] home. And then that's his argument, but [11:27] >> [sighs and gasps] [11:28] >> I don't know the effect of that on the [11:30] Iranians, the Iranian resistance [11:32] movement. People are very disappointed [11:34] cuz you [11:35] the Iranian resistance has not come up [11:38] again. And if they were to rise up, [11:42] you get the impression that all bets [11:44] would be off the table, that [11:46] US [clears throat] air cover would start [11:48] to help them. [11:49] If they If they're able to send [11:51] Okay, this is not exactly a fair point [11:54] to the Iranian people saying that you [11:56] know, [11:57] saying people are disappointed in them [11:59] that they haven't come out into the [12:00] streets. There could be US air cover to [12:01] support them. Let's remember that [12:03] President Trump [12:05] has decided to negotiate and has been [12:08] open that he wants to make a deal [12:10] with [12:11] these criminals like Qalibaf and Vaidi [12:15] or or he's the head of IRGC. He's not [12:16] really in the negotiation, but people [12:18] like Abbas Araqchi. We're talking about [12:20] the regime keeping He Trump keeps saying [12:22] the regime has changed. The Iranian [12:23] people know that it has not. [12:25] And that this means preserving the [12:27] regime. They're not going to step out [12:28] into the street if Trump is going to [12:29] stab them in the back and make a deal [12:31] with these guys and keep them in power. [12:32] I'm not saying that Trump will. I'm not [12:33] saying I suspect he actually will. [12:36] But as long as that's what he's [12:37] signaling out there, the Iranian people [12:39] aren't sure that they that America has [12:41] their back to bring down the regime. [12:43] So, not such a fair point. [12:45] drones into [12:48] Islamic [12:49] Revolutionary Guard Corps roadblocks and [12:52] checkpoints and they are. You can [12:54] imagine if there was [12:56] they were unleashed, they could do a lot [12:58] of damage and help the resistance. So, [13:01] I think Trump thought the resistance [13:02] would be more active at this point. And [13:05] they need to be armed. So, [13:07] he's in a deadlock [clears throat] [13:08] and Israel, as to your question, [13:11] Israel is right next to Iran and is [13:15] vulnerable. It's only got 10 and 1/2 [13:17] million people. The United States is 340 [13:19] million people and it's far away. So, we [13:21] have different geopolitical assessments [13:24] of its risk. [13:26] And uh [13:29] it it it's also got to be very very [13:31] careful because in the United States, [13:33] one of the reasons that has driven down [13:35] Israeli popularity [13:37] is this left-wing meme and then [13:40] amplified by Tucker Carlson and the rest [13:43] that Netanyahu dragged Trump into the [13:46] war. So, if Trump starts to say [13:50] our interests are not exactly alike and [13:52] we've done so much damage together, they [13:54] won't come back and Israel says, "Yeah, [13:56] but you're leaving us with a wounded [13:57] bear in a cave." [13:59] And the first thing he does is going to [14:00] come out at us or the Gulf. [14:02] >> [sighs and gasps] [14:03] >> Uh [14:04] but they can't He has to avoid Netanyahu [14:06] has to avoid the idea that he was trying [14:08] to pull Trump back in. [14:10] So, they have to be And he This is all [14:12] coming from the must note from the [14:14] Israeli press. It's not coming from [14:16] Netanyahu. [14:18] So, [14:19] we'll see what happens, but um [14:23] Hold on. So, that that is a very [14:26] important point. [14:27] That once Iran is a wounded bear, [14:32] the people the [14:33] the countries that are most at risk from [14:35] that are the Israelis and then he threw [14:38] in and the Gulf, but he was talking [14:39] about it from the Israeli calculus. [14:42] Uh that yes, Israel's Israel's interests [14:44] and the United States interests are not [14:45] 100% aligned, but understand that this [14:47] is the same thinking going on right now [14:49] in Kuwait, in Bahrain, [14:52] in in Oman, in the United Arab Emirates, [14:55] in in Saudi Arabia, where they're [14:56] saying, "Okay, listen, Trump, you [14:58] decided to go ahead and blow this whole [14:59] place up on February 28th. [15:02] If you don't finish the job and you [15:04] leave us, [15:05] you leave us with an angry wounded bear, [15:09] you leave the Iranian regime intact, [15:11] they're going to rebuild, they're you [15:13] know, we're we're the ones who are on [15:14] the front lines of that. We're the ones [15:15] who get attacked. This brings us back to [15:17] the rocket attack issue when he was [15:18] talking about how we don't know how many [15:20] rockets they have and they could disrupt [15:22] you know, they they can still take out [15:24] the [15:25] the the oil refineries and the and the [15:27] other and the other assets [15:29] uh the other oil related assets of the [15:31] Gulf states with their rockets. [15:33] And this is why even though their navy's [15:36] been destroyed, they can still keep the [15:37] Straits of Hormuz closed um [15:40] because [15:41] they have these rocket launchers in the [15:43] hills along the banks of the [15:45] of the Strait of Hormuz and and they [15:47] have rockets pointed right across the [15:49] strait at those at those Gulf states. [15:52] So, both from the Iranian's perspective [15:54] and the Gulf states' perspective, [15:55] they're looking at America saying, "Wait [15:56] a second, are you going to leave us in a [15:58] cave with a wounded bear?" to use Victor [16:00] Davis Hanson's analogy. [16:02] So, there there you can see that the [16:04] strategy is really is really moving in a [16:06] few different directions here. But [16:08] again, you read the Iranians, you read [16:10] their strategy, they see Trump not [16:12] wanting to go kinetic, wanting to make a [16:14] deal with China, brokering a deal with [16:16] Iran, and the Iranian people looking at [16:18] Trump wanting to broker a deal with [16:20] these with these gangsters and saying, [16:21] "Hey, wait a second, do you have our [16:23] back?" So, this is a real moment of [16:24] truth for Trump. Simultaneously, [16:27] again, just to sum up, you have the Gulf [16:29] states and Israel saying, "Are you going [16:31] to leave us with a wounded bear? Do you [16:32] have our back? [16:34] Are you going to finish the job or you [16:35] or are you going to back out and come to [16:37] some compromise that leaves uh that [16:38] leaves the evil regime intact?" You have [16:40] them all worrying. And you have the [16:42] Iranian people also worrying, "Wait a [16:44] second, are we [16:46] Is it safe for us to go out and protest? [16:48] Will America have our back if they're if [16:49] they're trying to cut a deal with the [16:51] same people who slaughter us?" [16:53] Um so, that's kind of [16:56] the bind that we're in because Trump [16:57] wants a deal quickly. He doesn't want to [16:59] go to China with kinetic action going [17:01] on, and meanwhile the Iranians are [17:02] taunting him. So, that's how I see the [17:05] That's kind of my [17:07] my uh expansion on some of Victor Davis [17:09] Hanson's points [17:11] and how I see this um [17:13] this current moment that we're in here. [17:16] You know, you know, let's watch a couple [17:17] more minutes of him. [17:19] The problem would be not if a J.D. Vance [17:22] necessarily or Marco Rubio were [17:24] president [17:26] next president. That would be 6 years of [17:28] vigilance. [17:29] And they would act. I think even Vance [17:31] would. [17:32] But if you get an AOC or um a Pete [17:36] Buttigieg or Newsom, they wouldn't. They [17:39] would all dismiss Israel. [17:42] I I've never seen just a as a excursus, [17:45] I've never seen anything like this. [17:48] My friend Megyn Kelly the other day um [17:50] in a passionate uh interview [17:53] which [17:55] went all went viral because the people [17:57] were juxtaposing it. [17:59] When I was on her program last summer, [18:02] she was very adamant about the necessity [18:04] of the bombing to take away the nuclear [18:06] threat. Then she made some really good [18:08] points about Islam. And I I mean, [18:11] going back [18:13] through five or six administration, who [18:15] who were the people who blew up our [18:17] Tanzania [18:18] uh [18:19] our Kenya embassies, our Beirut [18:21] embassies, our Marine [18:23] barracks? Who were the ones that sending [18:24] shape charge to blow up Americans? [18:27] Who was the panty bomber, whatever we [18:29] call the underwear bomber? [18:31] Who Who that killed people at Fort Hood? [18:35] Who killed people at San Bernardino? [18:38] Who killed people in a nightclub? Who [18:40] did 9/11? [18:42] Uh who are those [18:43] >> USS Cole, right? The whole [18:45] >> USS Cole. We know who It's not Jewish [18:47] terrorist. It's Islam. [18:53] There you have it. [18:54] There you have it. [18:56] So, the question is, does Trump know [18:58] that? Is that in the top of his mind? I [19:00] keep coming back to the fact that Trump [19:02] was saying from the beginning that he [19:04] doesn't want to leave this problem for [19:05] another president. He doesn't want to be [19:07] another Obama. [19:08] So, I just, you know, every time I I [19:10] look at this and see, hey the Iranians [19:12] are playing him they're going to survive [19:15] he's not going to get his deal or I'm [19:19] worried that he's going to prop up [19:21] the regime that's there [19:24] which it looks like he's trying to do [19:25] but at the same time he keeps reminding [19:27] us that he [19:28] he understands who the regime is and the [19:30] necessity of getting rid of them. [19:33] So it remains to be seen what happens. [19:35] Please drop a comment let me know what [19:37] you thought of this video especially of [19:39] the style of of interrupting at various [19:42] points rather than playing the whole [19:43] clip through let me know because I'm [19:45] experimenting with different ways of [19:46] analyzing these clips. [19:48] And there are pros and cons so I your [19:51] your opinion is important to me. I want [19:53] to thank you all for helping the channel [19:54] grow. Make sure you're subscribed and [19:56] make sure you're also subscribed to the [19:58] links [19:59] in the in the description of this video [20:01] to get to Israel 365 news.com [20:04] go there and Israel 365 news newsletter [20:08] and Israel 365 action newsletter and the [20:10] Israel 365 news YouTube channel. Make [20:13] sure that you're getting all of the [20:14] content we are putting out. [20:16] All right, God bless. We'll be back with [20:18] more soon.
