Transcript [00:00] Hey everyone. So, [clears throat] if you [00:01] watch my channel, you know that I'm a [00:03] pretty big fan of Victor Davis Hanson. I [00:06] find him to be very thoughtful and [00:08] and very wise. He's an eminent military [00:11] historian and he was interviewed the [00:14] other day. He did a hit on Sean [00:16] Hannity's show on Fox where he kind of [00:18] summed up where we are in the war and on [00:22] the surface it was just one of these, [00:23] you know, news hits where he's just [00:25] saying a bunch of stuff. I want to go [00:27] through what he said there because I [00:29] think it is the best not only summary of [00:32] the war but in terms of forecasting what [00:35] to expect in the days and weeks ahead, I [00:37] think it was outstanding. So, I want to [00:39] drill down on the points that he made. [00:41] First, let's watch the clip and then [00:43] we'll come back and I'll have some [00:45] comments to make. But before we do all [00:46] that, please go over to Israel [00:48] 365charity.com, [00:50] Israel365charity.com [00:54] and please contribute to the Israel's [00:55] Under Fire campaign. We're raising funds [00:58] for lots of needs on the home front here [01:00] in Israel. A lot of communities and [01:02] families have been affected by the [01:04] missile strikes. [01:06] Specifically, we're looking for [01:08] we are helping out families that you [01:11] know, young families especially. Very [01:13] often the father is away on reserve [01:14] duty. Very often people can't work [01:17] because their jobs are have been [01:19] disrupted by the war and there's a lot [01:21] of financial needs and a lot of [01:23] emotional needs [01:24] and yeah. So, we're plugged in with a [01:27] lot of good charities and it's a good [01:28] way for you to contribute to what is [01:30] going on in a very positive way. All [01:33] right, let's get over to [01:35] Victor Davis Hanson now and we'll see [01:38] what he has to say. Here with reaction [01:40] Hoover Institution Victor senior fellow [01:43] Victor Davis Hanson. First of all, [01:44] Victor, I know you've been through a lot [01:46] medically. Welcome back. Great to have [01:48] you. You've been missed. I know you're [01:50] writing and I know you started your [01:51] podcast up again. It's great to have you [01:53] back. [01:55] Thank you, Sean. I appreciate that. [01:58] All right, let let's just look at this. [02:01] First of all, the entire narrative [02:03] surrounding it. I'll let you take it in [02:05] any direction you want. The media, the [02:07] conflict itself, [02:10] anti-Americanism, [02:12] virulent anti-Semitism [02:15] around the world, college campuses and [02:17] the punditry class. I just want to get [02:19] your overall view of all of it. [02:23] Well, you know, we don't have people on [02:25] the ground to tell us what's really [02:27] happening in Iran except you know, [02:29] captive news people like CNN that are [02:32] there only with the permission of the [02:33] theocracy. But there's enough evidence [02:35] to see how things are really going. It's [02:38] with Europeans would never agree to go [02:40] anywhere near Iran unless they thought [02:42] the tide was turning and they want to [02:44] they they think that we're we're going [02:46] to win. Otherwise, they would keep still [02:48] and the the reason that the petro [02:50] nations of the Gulf survive is they have [02:52] their finger in the wind and they're [02:54] very attuned to the climate. And when [02:56] you have Al Jazeera praising the United [02:58] States bombing campaign and saying that [03:01] it's been underestimated and it's [03:03] brilliant and effective, you get the [03:04] feeling that they think not only should [03:06] the United States finish the job but it [03:08] can and will finish the job. And then [03:11] when you start to see tactical aircraft [03:13] like Warthogs and Apaches, that means [03:16] that they're offering almost ground and [03:18] sea support to to hit targets. There's [03:22] there's nothing there's no defense at [03:24] all when you have that type of aircraft [03:26] flying at will in Iranian airspace. So, [03:29] you put it all together and I think it's [03:32] pretty clear that [03:34] this rope-a-dope strategy that they have [03:36] that we're going to tire before they are [03:38] is dependent on just public opinion, the [03:42] midterms in the United States and if [03:45] Trump sees it through and I think he [03:46] will, I think they're going to fall [03:48] pretty soon in two, three, four weeks. [03:51] And I think they know it and I think the [03:52] Europeans know it and I think the Middle [03:54] East knows it and their only hope, the [03:56] Iranians only hope is that somebody will [03:59] call Donald Trump off before the job is [04:01] finished. [04:03] I don't think that's going to happen. I [04:04] don't think President Trump plans on [04:06] going back a third time. [04:07] >> it is either. I think that's their hope [04:09] from the left. [04:11] You know, you're a great historian. [04:12] You're very knowledgeable. I've been [04:14] pointing out there there seem to be [04:16] three three historical examples that [04:19] Donald Trump is leaning on here. Reagan [04:21] peace through strength. He seems to be [04:23] have a full understanding that what we [04:26] didn't apply in the last century that [04:29] cost about 100 million human souls, [04:31] probably more, that if you don't take [04:34] out a threat early, that you risk [04:36] potentially losing millions of lives. He [04:38] seems to have learned the lesson of Mao [04:41] and Stalin and and Hitler and and Pol [04:44] Pot and Tojo and and Mussolini. [04:47] Lastly, he seems to have learned from [04:49] Iraq and Afghanistan no forever wars and [04:52] with new advanced military technology, [04:55] he is showing that there is a new [04:56] generation of warfare and new strategies [05:00] involving warfare and it's on display [05:02] now for the world to see. Do you see [05:04] anything Do you agree with that? Do you [05:06] see anything in addition to that? [05:09] I do. I think his philosophy is we're [05:12] not going to put people in a pell-mell [05:14] like context where they're going [05:15] door-to-door against jihadists that know [05:18] the terrain and the environment. We're [05:20] not going to do that. We're going to [05:21] play to our strength which is [05:22] intelligence, [05:24] technology, firepower and we're going to [05:27] do it in a new way with enhanced drones [05:29] and satellite reconnaissance so we know [05:32] the individual names of individual [05:34] commanders. That's new. But you know, he [05:36] reminds me a lot in 1939 Churchill had [05:40] warned everybody [05:42] about the threat of fascism on the [05:44] continent, Nazis, Italians and Japanese [05:47] and nobody listened to him. And then [05:49] after the war broke out, he didn't [05:50] nobody called on him and then finally he [05:52] came in and from May 10th of 1940, he [05:56] was saying to everybody these people [05:58] want to take over the whole continent. [06:00] And we weren't in. The Russians were on [06:01] the side of the Germans at that time [06:05] under the Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact and he [06:08] was the voice in the wilderness and [06:09] that's what Trump is trying to do. He's [06:11] trying to say to the American Democratic [06:13] Party what's left of it. You don't [06:15] understand what's going on here. You you [06:17] Europeans don't fully understand. You [06:20] people in the Middle East don't fully [06:21] understand what this regime is about. [06:23] And when people say, well, we didn't [06:24] have an imminent threat. We didn't have [06:26] an imminent threat when they took our [06:27] hostages, when they blew up our [06:29] barracks. Nobody said, we better attack [06:31] Iran because we need an imminent threat [06:33] when they blew up our embassy. They [06:34] never they always acted spontaneously [06:37] with surprises and we never knew what [06:39] they were going to do. So, the idea that [06:41] you have have a telegraphed imminent [06:43] threat, it's not the nature of that [06:45] regime. It's lying, disguise and [06:48] dissimulation and that's their pattern [06:49] for the last 47 years. But nobody's [06:52] taken them seriously. Every president [06:53] said, we're going to deal with this, all [06:55] seven of them and all seven of them did [06:57] not and then all seven of them when they [06:58] got out of office said, I regret that I [07:00] didn't. [07:02] And he's the first one [07:03] that warned the world and said, I'm not [07:05] going to be one of those. [07:07] Steve Witcall clarified that when they [07:09] were bragging that 460 kilograms of [07:13] 60% enriched uranium which means in [07:16] seven to 10 days it can be enriched to [07:18] 90% which is weapons grade. Victor, we [07:20] missed you. Welcome back. We're glad to [07:22] have you and [07:24] >> [snorts] [07:24] >> Okay. So, there's Victor Davis Hanson. [07:27] And [07:29] you know, he made a number of important [07:31] points there. So, I want to walk through [07:32] them clearly [07:34] because if you take them all together, [07:36] they tell a much bigger story than just [07:39] what's happening on the battlefield and [07:41] certainly what we're getting through the [07:42] media which is where he starts. First, [07:44] he he starts with his first point was [07:47] very critical. You cannot rely [07:49] on the media narrative that we're [07:51] getting to understand what's happening [07:53] inside Iran cuz we don't actually have [07:56] real reporting. Journalists there [07:59] operate only with the permission of the [08:01] regime. [08:02] So, instead he [clears throat] says [08:05] you know, without real honest [08:07] independent reporting [08:09] Excuse me. He says that you have to [08:10] watch the behavior of countries that are [08:14] close to the action or are watching it [08:16] more carefully. [08:17] How are the countries acting? And that's [08:19] a very Middle Eastern way of reading [08:21] reality. In the Middle East, what people [08:23] say is far less important than what they [08:25] do. So, if the European countries are [08:27] suddenly leaning in [08:30] and if Gulf states are shifting their [08:32] tone and we're seeing that and if you're [08:33] watching my channel, I've been reporting [08:35] on that [08:36] throughout the war how you see the Gulf [08:38] states are are shifting their tone, more [08:40] pro-American, even more pro-Israel while [08:43] they're tiptoeing towards that. Even Al [08:44] Jazeera praising certain Israeli actions [08:47] without sounding like they're praising [08:49] Israel itself. [08:51] Right? So, even if if you have Al [08:53] Jazeera talking positively about [08:55] American operations, that tells you [08:56] something important. Okay? These are [08:59] um [09:00] You you put these things together. These [09:01] are all actors, the Europeans, the Gulf [09:03] states that are positioning themselves [09:06] based on where they think this is going. [09:09] Okay? That and to illustrate To [09:11] illustrate his point, let's take a look [09:12] at a few headlines [09:14] that just back up what he was saying [09:17] here. So, for example, here's a headline [09:19] in the BBC. This is from today. UK [09:22] allows US to use bases to strike Strait [09:25] of Hormuz targets. [09:26] The UK has agreed to allow the US to use [09:28] British bases to launch strikes on [09:30] Iranian sites targeting the Strait of [09:32] Hormuz. [09:33] Prime Minister Keir Starmer previously [09:34] allowed US forces to use the bases only [09:37] for defensive operations [09:39] to prevent Iran firing missiles that put [09:41] British interests or lives at risk. [09:43] Downing Street said on Friday that [09:44] ministers had approved an expansion of [09:46] the targets to help protect ships in the [09:49] vital oil shipping channel still on the [09:50] basis of collective self-defense. [09:53] President Trump then said, yeah, you [09:54] should have acted faster, etc. Okay, but [09:57] you see here [09:59] uh the UK will still not be directly [10:01] involved in the US strikes. The [10:03] principles behind their approach remain [10:05] the same. Very nice. [10:08] But [10:09] what you see is that they're now [10:10] becoming more cooperative with the [10:12] Americans. And same thing here with [10:14] France. Iran slams France as Macron [10:16] unstance over Middle East war. That's a [10:18] good sign. If Iran is criticizing [10:20] Macron, we're in good That's a good [10:22] thing even though Macron's been worse [10:24] even than than Starmer right now. [10:26] Uh in terms of what he's willing to do, [10:28] nevertheless, he's been condemning He's [10:30] now [10:31] uh a couple days ago condemned the [10:33] Iranians for striking at at um [10:37] at uh oil facilities in neighboring uh [10:41] states, but he did not criticize Israel [10:44] and he hasn't criticized the US. So, [10:46] again, he's he's uh he didn't need to do [10:48] that. He didn't need to attack Iran uh [10:51] diplomatically and he did. So, this is [10:53] what Vic This is what Victor Davis [10:54] Hanson was talking about. You see the [10:56] way people are signaling, the way these [10:57] states are signaling. And then you have [10:59] this important story from [11:01] to uh from from uh from yesterday. [11:04] Seven US allies back plan to reopen [11:06] Strait of Hormuz. [11:08] Okay, so you have on Thursday [11:10] uh March 19th, seven US allies issued a [11:12] joint statement expressing support for [11:14] the possible creation of an [11:15] international coalition to reopen the [11:17] Strait of Hormuz and ensure safe passage [11:19] for commercial ships and oil tankers. [11:21] And these are the UK, France, Germany, [11:23] Italy, Japan, Netherlands, and Canada. [11:27] Okay, and they strongly condemned Iran's [11:29] attacks on commercial vessels. [11:31] So, not being as neutral as they were [11:34] before, not just sitting it out, but [11:36] actually [11:37] uh moving inching in the direction of [11:39] the United States. This is what Victor [11:41] Davis Hanson was talking about, that [11:42] they're leaning in. And the conclusion [11:44] he draws from from this point that he [11:46] made is that the region itself, the Gulf [11:49] states themselves, and you can even see [11:51] the Europeans believe that the tide is [11:53] turning against Iran. Cuz everyone [11:56] in this diplomatic space just picks [11:58] winners. Now, the second point he makes [12:01] is about the military situation. And [12:03] this is something a lot of people have [12:04] missed. He mentions equipment like like [12:07] A-10 Warthogs and Apache helicopters. [12:10] That may sound like just another [12:11] technical detail. You hear about all [12:13] these weapons, but it's very significant [12:15] cuz those systems don't operate in [12:18] contested airspace. They fly low and you [12:21] don't fly low slow aircraft like those [12:25] slow in comparison to jets, right? You [12:27] don't fly low slow aircraft like that [12:29] unless you control the skies. [12:32] Which means, in very simple terms, that [12:34] Iran has lost the ability to defend its [12:36] own airspace [12:38] even at a level very close to the [12:39] ground. Which means that it's now a [12:42] completely one-sided military [12:44] environment. And it's an environment [12:46] that will make it extremely difficult [12:49] for the regime to crack down on [12:50] protesters as they did in January. Okay, [12:53] that's a big point. He didn't He didn't [12:54] go there in making this point. [12:57] But the Israelis have already said to [12:59] They've made it clear that when it's [13:02] time for the protesters to come back out [13:05] after they've after the Israelis and [13:07] Americans have degraded the IRGC and the [13:09] Basij even more, they're also going to [13:12] provide air cover to the protesters. [13:14] Okay, so this is So, the fact that the [13:16] United States is moving in this these [13:17] low-flying aircraft are all further [13:20] indications that the Iranian [13:22] capabilities to retaliate have been [13:24] reduced to things that can't even [13:26] threaten [13:27] low-flying aircraft. Okay, now from [13:29] there [13:30] uh Victor Davis Hanson moves on to what [13:32] he calls Iran's strategy. And this is [13:34] where I think he's exactly right. It [13:36] lines up with what I've been saying from [13:38] the very beginning. If you've been [13:39] watching me for the last few weeks, [13:41] you've heard me say this a million [13:42] times. Iran is not trying to win this [13:45] war [13:46] in a conventional sense. They don't [13:47] think they can. That's not their [13:49] strategy at all. This this I I I even [13:51] wrote about this 10 days before the war [13:53] in the Jerusalem Post. They are not [13:55] trying to defeat the United States or [13:57] Israel on the battlefield. Their [13:58] strategy, [14:00] simply put, is to prolong the conflict, [14:02] escalate just enough, and survive. [14:05] They're playing for time. They're [14:07] betting on Western political pressure, [14:09] on the price of oil, on media [14:11] narratives, on uh the [14:13] upcoming elections. [14:15] And so, they're relying on this idea [14:17] that if they can just hold on long [14:18] enough, someone will force Trump to stop [14:21] before the job is finished. That's [14:23] Iran's strategy. [14:25] And then uh [14:28] Victor Davis Hanson takes it a step [14:29] further and he says that the end might [14:32] be closer than people think. He throws [14:35] out a timeline of weeks. Maybe that's [14:36] right, maybe it's optimistic. I don't [14:38] know. Either way, it's not a forever war [14:40] if that's the case. But again, the [14:42] important point is not the exact [14:43] timeline. It's the fact that the [14:45] regional actors, the Europeans, the Gulf [14:47] states, are behaving as though the [14:50] regime is in real danger of falling. [14:52] And then he sh- And then he shifts to [14:54] something even bigger. [14:55] And which is interesting. How this war [14:58] is being fought. And that he identifies [15:01] that we're seeing something new [15:04] in this Trump era. This is not Iraq. [15:06] It's not Afghanistan. There are no plans [15:08] for occupation. There won't be [15:09] door-to-door fighting in hostile cities. [15:12] Instead, what you're seeing is a model [15:14] built on intelligence, precision, and [15:16] overwhelming technological advantage. [15:20] A drone, satellites, targeted strikes. [15:23] I mean, the targeted strikes in this war [15:24] are unbelievable. The You know, with [15:26] this real-time identification of [15:27] commanders and exactly where they are. [15:30] In other words, the if you put it all [15:32] together, this is a war [15:35] without occupation and without [15:37] devastating damage to the civilian [15:39] population, either. It's a major shift, [15:41] and if it works, [15:43] it changes how wars are going to be [15:45] fought going forward. Uh I mean, [15:47] provided you have the intelligence to do [15:48] it. [15:50] But then, Hanson brings in the [15:52] historical analogy comparing Trump to [15:54] Churchill warning about a threat that [15:56] others didn't take seriously. Now, [15:59] besides the comparison itself, [16:01] and you can make of it whatever you [16:02] want, the underlying point of the [16:04] comparison here is it is critical. For [16:07] decades, everyone has known what the [16:10] Iranian regime is. They've known its [16:12] ideology, its behavior, its use of [16:14] terror, and its use of deception. And [16:17] yet, every administration said, as he [16:20] pointed out in the video, every [16:21] administration said, "We'll deal with [16:22] it." and then didn't and then regretted [16:24] it. And this connects to his final [16:27] point, which I think is really the heart [16:29] of what he's saying. [16:30] The idea that you wait for an imminent [16:33] threat before acting, [16:36] that assumes your enemy behaves in a [16:38] predictable, transparent way and [16:40] telegraphs things, right? He made that [16:42] point. Why does it make sense to deal [16:44] with a threat only when it's imminent? [16:46] If you If you knew that someone wanted [16:48] to kill you and your family [16:50] and was working on plans to do it, would [16:52] you wait until the threat was imminent [16:55] before dealing with it? [16:58] Iran is a terrorist state. They think [17:00] like terrorists. Their entire playbook [17:03] is built on surprise, on their proxies, [17:06] on on denying on denying things, on [17:09] deception. By the time you see the [17:11] imminent threat, it's already too late. [17:13] So, people saying there wasn't an [17:14] imminent threat, why are we attacking? [17:16] It's It's It's insane. [17:19] Okay, let me [17:21] let me sum all this up. When you take a [17:22] step back [17:23] and you put [17:25] everything together, [17:26] what Victor Davis Hanson is really [17:28] saying is this. [17:29] The military outcome may already be [17:32] decided, and the real question now is a [17:34] political one. Will the United States [17:37] and the broader West [17:39] allow this war to reach an actual [17:42] conclusion? Or, [17:45] and this is a danger, and I've talked [17:46] about this, will the same pattern that [17:49] we've been seeing for decades repeat [17:51] itself, where pressure builds, [17:53] then there's hesitation, the regime [17:55] survives not because it won, [17:58] but because we stopped short. [18:02] Right, history didn't didn't change in [18:04] 1945 because the allies managed the Nazi [18:07] regime. [18:10] It history history changed because they [18:13] destroyed the Nazi regime. They [18:15] completely destroyed it, and that's the [18:16] lesson that has been uh unfortunately [18:19] unlearned ever since. In the decades [18:22] since World War II, we got used to wars [18:24] ending in negotiations, [18:26] where the enemy remains, the ideology [18:28] remains, the threat remains. Maybe it's [18:30] weakened, it's pushed back, but it's [18:33] still there. [18:34] And over time, that becomes the [18:36] expectation of what happens with wars, [18:38] cuz that's the way it's been since World [18:39] War II, no matter what happens, evil [18:41] regimes survive. And our enemies have [18:43] learned this. They understand that the [18:45] West no longer thinks in terms of [18:47] victory, only in terms of management. [18:51] And if that's the case, then you just [18:53] need to survive, right? You survive the [18:55] pressure, you outlast the political [18:56] cycle, and you live to fight another [18:58] day, cuz they don't have political [18:59] cycles in these in these uh [19:01] in these totalitarian regimes. So, [19:03] that's the games they play. [19:06] It makes it easy for them to survive. [19:08] And that that brings us to the real [19:11] question here about this war. It's not [19:13] about whether There's no question about [19:15] whether this war can be won, [19:18] but whether it will be finished. That's [19:21] the question. Because if Iran survives [19:23] this, it won't be because they won. [19:25] It will be It will be because the West, [19:28] once again, chose not to win. [19:33] That's where we are right now in this [19:34] war. [19:36] All right, folks. Thank you so much for [19:38] watching, and thanks for helping grow [19:40] the channel. I really appreciate it. I [19:42] appreciate all of the likes and shares [19:44] and and uh messages. I do spend a lot of [19:46] time uh [19:47] every day [19:49] reading messages, reading comments that [19:51] people make on the videos. I want to [19:52] improve the channel, and I appreciate [19:54] all the comments. Please drop a comment [19:56] below. Please like, share, subscribe, [19:57] all that good stuff. [19:59] And tell people about what we're doing [20:00] here on this channel. God bless you. [20:02] Have a great week.
