Transcript [00:00] So, as this war progresses and we see [00:03] that Iran's military capabilities are [00:06] being destroyed. Uh [00:08] all the numbers are out there. We've [00:09] been talking about them. The navy, the [00:11] ballistic missiles, their air force, [00:14] they're really being decimated. So, [00:15] we're moving towards another stage in [00:17] the war where [00:19] it's more of it's going to be more about [00:21] attacking regime targets and diminishing [00:23] the regime such that regime change [00:25] happens. That's certainly Israel's [00:26] objective and America has also embraced [00:28] that objective. [00:30] And [00:31] so the conversation has turned a lot to [00:33] what is the outcome that we want. I've [00:35] written about this. There's a column of [00:36] mine in the Jerusalem Post this week [00:39] that on the opinion page there. You can [00:41] go to jpost.com look in the opinion page [00:43] or find my author page just by Googling [00:45] my name in jpost.com and you'll find my [00:48] piece on the regime change issue. It's [00:50] very it's very complicated because all [00:52] the different options have their [00:53] downsides and we've talked about some of [00:55] them in some of the recent videos on [00:57] this channel. What I'd like to do in [00:59] this video is listen to a short [01:01] monologue by Victor Davis Hanson, the [01:03] great Victor Davis Hanson, great [01:05] military historian and public [01:06] intellectual, uh great academic uh [01:09] thinker who laid out some of the issues [01:12] with regime change, some of the [01:13] possibilities and what to look for. I [01:16] have something to say about about what [01:18] he has to say here. So, that's what I [01:20] want to do. I want to listen to Victor [01:21] Davis Hanson. Maybe I'll stop it here [01:22] and there, make a comment, but then [01:24] share my own thoughts on the matter. [01:26] Now, before we get to that, let me just [01:28] remind everyone about the great work [01:30] that is being done at Israel 365 to step [01:33] up and help families that are struggling [01:36] due to the war with Iran. You have [01:38] families whose husb- where the husband [01:40] has been called up for reserve duty, uh [01:42] where or you know, the kids are stuck at [01:44] home, people can't work as much. There's [01:46] a lot of a lot of stresses, a lot of [01:48] PTSD issues, [01:50] uh child care issues. And also in areas [01:53] that have been hit by missiles, there's [01:55] there's families who've lost their [01:56] homes, lost lost possessions, or lost [01:58] loved ones. In Be'er Sheva, we had a [02:00] mass casualty event and Israel 365 has [02:02] really stepped up to the plate to help [02:05] families in need in in wartime. Uh [02:08] Israel 365 has a long history of [02:11] stepping up in times of crisis and [02:13] really addressing needs, finding the [02:15] best organizations and the best [02:16] recipients uh for you know, for funds. [02:19] So, please go to israel365charity.com [02:22] and and find the Israel at War campaign. [02:25] There's a banner for it at the top of [02:26] the page or you can scroll down to the [02:28] current projects and you'll find it [02:30] there. So, israel365charity.com. [02:32] Please go ahead and do that. It's a [02:33] great way to help out uh besides the [02:36] importance of staying informed. Okay, [02:37] let's go to Victor Davis Hanson and [02:40] let's hear his take on the whole [02:42] question of where we are going in this [02:44] war. [02:49] Hello, this is Victor Davis Hanson for [02:50] the Daily Signal. There's been a lot of [02:52] criticism of the Trump administration [02:54] over uh what will be the end game in [02:57] Iran and I'll get that to in a second, [02:59] but they've also said, "What is your [03:01] agenda?" And they've criticized Trump, [03:04] for example, citing that he wants to [03:07] demilitarize um [03:09] Iran so it doesn't have ballistic [03:11] missiles and the or drones and the [03:12] capability to attack its neighbors or [03:15] that it wanted to uh ensure that it did [03:18] not have a nuclear weapon, which [03:21] [clears throat] the Iranians themselves [03:23] brag that they have the ability to make [03:24] 11 right now should they wish or had [03:27] they we not bombed. There's also an [03:30] agenda his critics say, "Well, he wants [03:32] to overthrow the government or at least [03:34] help the protesters." [03:36] Well, he wants to do all three. They're [03:37] not mutually incompatible. When we were [03:40] when we went to World War II, we really [03:41] didn't know what the ultimate aim was. [03:44] Joseph Stalin was our nominal ally and [03:47] he was shocked when Roosevelt and [03:48] Churchill kind of [03:50] on the on the fly in 1948 at the [03:53] Casablanca conference said, "Actually, [03:56] our aim is unconditional surrender." [03:58] Nobody thought it was at the time. Was [04:00] the [04:01] purpose in World War II to just fight [04:04] them to a standstill? That's what Russia [04:07] originally thought. Was it to we to [04:10] destroy the Nazi government? Was it to [04:12] reclaim all of Western Europe and then [04:15] make sure that they were democratic [04:16] governments? Is that what we said or did [04:18] we didn't say we were going to do that [04:20] in the Eastern Europe? We thought we [04:21] were, but there were a lot of aims in [04:23] World War II both in the Pacific and the [04:25] European theater. That's happens in war. [04:28] There a lot of things are articulated as [04:30] you go on. [04:32] This is a such an important point and I [04:33] just want to appreciate it and and talk [04:36] about it a little bit more. [04:38] That war aims don't aren't necessarily [04:42] all articulated at the beginning. There [04:44] going to be multiple war aims and war [04:46] aims can change and be articulated at [04:48] different points and they can be changed [04:50] based on what changes or what you learn. [04:52] For example, Roosevelt probably [04:54] determined that unconditional surrender [04:57] was the only acceptable outcome after [04:59] realizing who the Nazis were and who the [05:01] Imperial Japanese were and the way they [05:03] were fighting and realizing that the [05:04] only this is that really is the only [05:06] acceptable outcome. You don't [05:07] necessarily have that clarity when you [05:10] start. And this is such an important [05:12] point also in terms of how media reacts [05:15] when officials, whether they're American [05:17] officials, Israeli officials, get up and [05:19] make statements and talk about what [05:20] their goals are and if they're different [05:23] than what was articulated at the very [05:24] outset of the war, people will say, [05:25] "Wait a second, you're changing the [05:27] goals. That's not what you said the [05:28] objective was. Now you're changing the [05:29] objective." And the answer, as as Victor [05:32] Davis Hanson is really saying here, is [05:34] it could very well be, "Well, [05:36] we went in with one objective, but then [05:38] situations changed and and and maybe the [05:40] battlefield conditions became more [05:42] favorable to us, you know, the lay of [05:44] land became more favorable and new [05:45] opportunities opened up." And this [05:47] brings this brings us back to the 12-day [05:49] war in June. You might remember that the [05:51] goal was, of course, get rid of the [05:53] nuclear program, you know, Israel, you [05:55] know, you know, going in, hitting the [05:56] ballistic, hitting the leadership. And [05:59] the goal is to get out the nuclear [06:00] program. And then in the middle of that [06:02] war when Israel started hitting regime [06:04] targets and started talking about regime [06:05] change, people uh started talking about [06:08] it like a bait and switch. Some of our [06:09] friends in the politically conservative [06:11] space, you know, I'm a frequent guest on [06:13] Steve Bannon's show and he started [06:14] talking about that and he he was blowing [06:16] up at the time, "Oh, you know, you [06:17] didn't say this it was a regime change [06:19] war. It's a bait and switch. You you [06:20] know, this war started and now you're [06:22] talking about regime change." [06:24] And the answer really is and I remember [06:28] I remember, you know, arguing with Steve [06:29] about this actually, saying, "Well, [06:31] well, [06:33] yeah, the original goal wasn't regime [06:35] change. It was getting rid of the [06:36] nuclear threat, the ballistic missile [06:37] threat, but if the option for regime [06:39] change that we didn't realize we didn't [06:41] realize we'd have such great success in [06:43] the early days of the war and and the [06:45] possibility of regime change opens up, [06:47] so why not go for it? I mean, why can't [06:49] we have a tolerance for objectives [06:52] changing as the war goes on? I think [06:54] it's a very important perspective." [06:56] All right. Um he hasn't talked about [06:58] regime what the regime change could look [07:00] like yet. That's coming. [07:02] As far as the outcome, [07:04] I think there's three possible outcomes [07:06] and there is sort of a deadline that is [07:08] self-imposed. [07:10] We're only uh 8 months from the November [07:14] midterms and it will be adjudicated on [07:17] the economy and Trump is not talking [07:19] about the economy because he has his [07:21] hands full with Venezuela and the Iran [07:24] war. People have talked about Cuba. Some [07:26] point very quickly he's going to have to [07:27] pivot and start talking about the [07:30] economy and the good things that he will [07:32] argue that he has done. And he has to [07:35] get the tensions lowered so that oil [07:38] tankers and commerce can go freely out [07:40] of the Straits of Hormuz and gas prices [07:43] will go back. Kind of ironic for [07:44] Democrats that gas prices have rise when [07:47] they were 30 or 40 cents lower than the [07:50] average under Joe Biden. So, they they [07:53] have risen temporarily due to [07:54] speculation because after all, we're the [07:56] largest oil producer in the world and [07:58] self-sufficient in oil. It's speculation [08:01] about what might happen next that's [08:02] raising oil prices. So, there is a [08:05] pressure on this administration to get [08:08] the job done. And there's going to be [08:10] three possible outcomes. [08:12] And we haven't articulated which it is. [08:14] Some are impalable. One is impalable. [08:16] One is favorable. The first is that we [08:20] put so much pressure [08:22] on the Iranian theocracy that would be [08:25] defined by destroying its [08:26] infrastructure, its meetings, its [08:29] leadership, its military, its weaponry. [08:33] Uh the Revolutionary Guards are are [08:35] scattered and [08:37] and attrited. And at some point there is [08:41] going to be either a call for them to [08:44] say, "No more. No mas. We can't We're [08:47] losing our entire country's military [08:50] infrastructure. We have no air force [08:51] now. We have no navy now. We have very [08:54] few missiles. We're [08:56] We give up. We can't take it anymore." [08:58] Okay. And that would be followed then um [09:03] by a popular uprising and that would [09:06] mean the demonstrators then the the [09:08] theocracy would say, "We can't do it [09:11] anymore." People who had demonstrated [09:13] 30-something thousand have been killed [09:15] in the last They would pour back out on [09:17] the streets. There would be an interim [09:20] coalition government, dissidents in [09:22] Europe or the Shah's son. Some people [09:25] would come over and they would have [09:26] explicit instructions to form a [09:28] coalition transitory government leading [09:31] the way to a consensual government with [09:33] elections supervised by outside powers, [09:36] the EU, NATO, who knows. And [09:40] eventually within a few months there [09:42] would be an elected government with the [09:44] wherewith [09:45] with a warning that they will not allow [09:47] the theocrats to come back and [09:49] participate just as the Germany didn't [09:52] allow the Nazis to participate in the [09:54] government and they would be under [09:57] strict instruct instructions that they [09:59] can't get a bomb and they have to [10:01] dismantle their missiles if there's any [10:03] left for particular period of time or [10:05] whether inspected. That would be the [10:07] optimum choice. In other words, regime [10:10] change, demilitarization, [10:13] constitutional government, Iran goes [10:15] from being the problem in the entire [10:17] Middle East and its efforts to make a [10:19] Shia revolution and overthrow the Gulf [10:21] states, destroy Israel, etc. No, and now [10:24] it is a force for good and a force [10:27] multiplier of the Abrams Accord, etc. [10:30] The second [10:32] uh [10:33] possible solution, I would call it the [10:35] Venezuelan solution with the caveat, we [10:38] don't know how Venezuela is going to [10:39] work. But in this scenario, we get [10:42] somebody who is a dissident or had ties [10:46] with a former government, but is [10:47] secular, such as a military general at [10:51] one of the lower generals, one or two [10:53] star, they haven't been [10:54] for you know, haven't been formidable [10:56] figures in the top hierarchy of the [10:58] theocracy, and they come and say the the [11:02] malocracy is dead and most of the [11:04] generals are dead and I represent [11:06] dissident generals that want to stop [11:08] this war and we promise you that we will [11:11] agree to the negotiation demands before [11:14] the war to stop the ballistic missiles, [11:16] stop the huge subsidies to the Houthis, [11:19] Hezbollah, Hamas. We will stop all [11:21] nuclear proliferation, will allow you to [11:23] come in, and we will [11:27] exercise power with the proviso if the [11:30] people want us to have a transition, [11:33] we're willing to talk about that. That's [11:35] not so good because you're not getting [11:37] the dissidents and the people [11:38] immediately in the process, but on the [11:41] other hand, you have somebody who has [11:43] power in the government and supposedly [11:45] would be backed by what's left of the [11:47] army to get rid of theocracy and could [11:49] serve as a useful kind of Venezuelan [11:52] partial transition as we saw earlier in [11:55] the year. And finally, the worst [11:57] scenario, but it might happen, I would [12:00] call it stewing in their own juice. At [12:03] some point, [12:04] a month, 6 weeks, we've done about all [12:07] we can. In other words, we've destroyed [12:09] the military ability in every aspect of [12:13] Iran to hurt its neighbors, at least for [12:15] the foreseeable future. We may even have [12:18] found their nuclear material. We've [12:20] wiped out their leadership, but there's [12:22] still people fighting. And we don't want [12:24] to go there in the ground. [12:26] And so we just say, well, see you, [12:28] wouldn't want to be you. We've done what [12:30] we can. It'll take anybody who takes [12:32] power 5 to 10 years. We hope that you [12:36] people who were so brave to go out in [12:38] the street will now after we've stopped [12:41] bombing, you can it's in your hands. [12:43] We're not going to tell you to have a [12:44] consensual government, we're not going [12:46] to try to keep wiping out your enemies. [12:50] We're done. We did this for a month or 6 [12:52] weeks and it's up to you now to take the [12:55] reins and create your own type of [12:57] government according to your own wishes [12:59] with a caveat, if you let the malocracy [13:01] come back, we will be back. But from now [13:03] on, we're not going to put ground [13:04] troops, we're we're done. [13:06] And that would be the third. [13:08] Obviously, the best thing in the world [13:10] would be to have the [13:12] uh out the Ayatollahs completely out of [13:15] the picture, completely impotent, the [13:18] army disbanded or at least not in [13:20] service to the theocracy, a transitional [13:24] figure coming in who would agree to a [13:26] constitutional government with elections [13:29] and and dissidents would flock back and [13:31] that would be a wonderful thing to see a [13:33] consensual government around. The second [13:35] best would be a Venezuelan solution, a [13:37] strongman keeps order, but does not [13:40] allow uh [13:41] nuclear proliferation or aggression [13:44] against its neighbors for the time [13:45] being. The third was [13:47] we've done enough, we've defanged the [13:50] tiger, [13:51] and we don't really know what's going to [13:52] happen, but from time to time we'll [13:54] check in, but in the meantime, we hope [13:55] you dissidents [13:57] we hope you could do something, but it's [13:59] not our job, not our responsibility. [14:02] With that, I'll leave you. This is [14:04] Victor Davis Hanson for the Daily [14:06] Signal. [14:08] Okay. [14:11] So, yeah, that was Victor Davis Hanson. [14:12] He lays out these three options. [14:15] And so I want to go to I just want to go [14:17] through with them and share and share my [14:19] thoughts on the matter cuz I think [14:20] there's a few things that he missed that [14:22] are also very important factors to take [14:25] uh to take into account. Uh so first of [14:28] all, here is uh [14:30] This is the This is the piece that I [14:31] wrote in the Jerusalem Post. Uh it was [14:33] published uh in the online edition uh [14:37] yesterday [14:38] and uh I think it's going to be in the [14:40] print paper tomorrow. Is a chaos-free [14:42] transition possible? The risks of [14:44] Iranian regime change. And what I lay [14:46] out in here, and it's something that [14:48] that uh that Victor Davis Hanson did not [14:50] mention, is that [14:52] President Trump has already expressed [14:54] his preference. [14:56] Uh he's already expressed his preference [14:58] his preference for what what uh [15:01] what VDH called the [15:04] Venezuela option. With the Venezuela [15:06] option, you you decapitate the regime, [15:08] you find some someone you can work with [15:10] near the top, a strongman. Now, uh [15:13] here's [15:15] I I I want to [15:17] you know, throw some cold water on that [15:19] on that possibility. It is It is what [15:21] Trump wants. He's said it now multiple [15:23] times. He said it sitting with German [15:25] Chancellor Merz last week. He said it [15:28] again on Friday. He said it again [15:29] yesterday. He wants the Venezuela [15:32] option. In other words, [15:34] preserve stability, [15:35] empower these this technocratic class, [15:38] hold a gun to their heads, make them [15:39] behave, use the people who are running [15:41] the show [15:43] as the transition and put them in [15:46] charge. Here's the problem with that in [15:48] Iran. [15:49] Venezuela is much more similar to a [15:52] Libya and Iraq or a or a Syria in [15:56] structure in that you have a small small [15:59] ruling class. Uh it's not even a class [16:01] really. You have a group, a kind of [16:03] mafia team or family that is running the [16:06] show and you can hold a gun to their [16:07] heads. [16:08] The Iranian regime [16:11] is a massive amount of people. There are [16:14] There are It's probably over a million [16:15] people who are employees of or part of [16:18] the IRGC and their extended families and [16:20] all of the bureaucrats. Let's remember [16:22] that Iran is also a multinational [16:24] organization. It has Hezbollah. [16:27] Hezbollah is not funded by Iran. It's [16:29] It's arms of Iran. So it has It has the [16:32] drug trafficking trade that goes [16:33] worldwide. It has bases in Paraguay and [16:36] and and Venezuela and elsewhere. It has [16:39] drug trafficking, human trafficking, it [16:42] has these multinational deals with other [16:45] countries. It's a It's a totally [16:47] different type of structure. And if you [16:49] keep the criminals intact [16:52] in the interest of preserving stability, [16:54] what you're also preserving is that [16:56] entire network, that entire structure. [16:58] What's more, as you go down the layers [17:01] in the IRGC, people are more and more [17:04] ideological. [17:05] So the rank and file of the IRGC are [17:08] extremely ideological Shiite Muslims. [17:10] Now, what does that mean? [17:12] Shiite Islam is different than Sunni [17:14] Islam in in a very important theological [17:16] way. [17:17] Sunni Islam believes in spreading jihad [17:21] by by coercion. You go out, you hold a [17:24] knife to people's heads, or you do [17:26] civilizational jihad like the Muslim [17:28] Brotherhood does around the world, you [17:29] take over cities. It's very It's very [17:31] pragmatic jihad. [17:34] Okay? Again, either through actual like [17:35] slitting of people's throats, chopping [17:37] off their heads, or taking over. [17:40] The Shiite [17:42] uh mindset is a little different. [17:45] It's all about bringing back the [17:47] bringing the Mahdi, the hidden Imam, who [17:49] will come and he's like a Messiah [17:50] figure. You know, picture that they have [17:51] a Messiah, the Mahdi, and it's about [17:53] bringing the Mahdi and the Mahdi comes [17:55] after this it has this apocalyptic end [17:58] game where there's this there's this [18:00] massive world war and everything is [18:02] everything needs to be torn down and [18:03] destroyed, which then ushers in this [18:05] Messianic age. It's an apocalyptic [18:08] ideology. [18:10] Okay? So this firing in all directions [18:12] that you're seeing, causing maximum [18:14] chaos, is a feature, it's not a bug. [18:16] That's part of their ideology. And [18:18] that's why the Shiites were always like [18:19] these hardliners just saying, "We're [18:20] going to death to America, death to [18:21] Israel." [18:23] Trying to get a nuclear weapon, and [18:24] that's why it's so dangerous that they [18:25] have nuclear weapons cuz they literally [18:27] will use them. It's It's like in their [18:28] religious in their eschatology, in their [18:31] religious thinking about the end times, [18:33] you cause this massive chaos and this [18:35] massive destruction all over the world, [18:37] and that's what ultimately ushers in [18:40] the uh that's what ultimately I'm sorry. [18:43] That's what ultimately ushers in the [18:46] the the you know, the perfect world. [18:49] Okay, so they're Shiites. And that means [18:51] that the rank and file of the IRGC are [18:54] crazy Shiites. These are Shiites who [18:56] they have this ideology. And if the top [18:59] bureaucrats or some technocrats near the [19:01] top start cooperating with the Americans [19:03] and say, "We're going to you know, we're [19:05] going to manage things according to the [19:07] American rules," the people near the [19:09] bottom are just and they have weapons. [19:10] Remember, this is the IRGC. They're not [19:12] going to stand for it. [19:14] So it's going to devolve into chaos [19:16] anyway if they try to do that. As [19:18] opposed to Venezuela, where they're [19:19] Marxists. [19:20] Okay? They're Marxist uh [19:23] uh [19:24] you know, communist [19:25] strongmen who are at the top of the [19:28] Venezuela regime like Maduro. They're [19:29] not so ideological. They want money and [19:31] power. So you can work with them more. [19:34] So this is that's one fly in the [19:36] ointment of the Venezuela option that he [19:38] brings up. [19:39] Now, that first option that the IRGC [19:41] gets so decimated and there's a call of [19:44] no mas as he says, you know, and they [19:46] have because they have no air force, [19:47] they have no navy, they're so weak, and [19:49] then there's a popular uprising, [19:51] and I guess the protesters are protected [19:53] by American drones and Israeli drones [19:55] hovering overhead preventing the [19:57] protesters from being heard and somehow [19:59] there's a happy ending dissidents [20:01] return. [20:02] This is also not so simple. Remember the [20:04] weapons are in the hands of the IRGC. [20:07] And for the regime to actually change [20:10] is going to take a lot of work on the [20:12] ground and the question is how much [20:13] America wants to be involved. [20:15] Option three stewing in their own juice [20:18] just means that the regime stays in [20:19] power or it turns into ethnic violence. [20:23] Meaning the Kurds in the Northwest [20:25] are at are are chomping at the bit to [20:27] stream across that border. They want to [20:29] carve out some autonomous zone in the [20:30] Northwest. [20:32] And you have Baluchis in the south who [20:34] are similar. You have the MEK which is a [20:36] Muslim terrorist group that's going to [20:38] try to cause havoc and get their piece [20:40] of the pie also. [20:41] And the stewing in their own juice [20:44] option could mean that the actual good [20:47] free people of Iran who don't have [20:48] weapons and frankly aren't nearly as [20:51] organized as these terrorist militias [20:53] could end up getting caught in the [20:54] crossfire and we could have abject chaos [20:57] and that could also lead to a refugee [20:59] crisis in the area cuz people don't stay [21:01] in chaotic areas. They spill over the [21:02] borders into elsewhere. [21:04] And so there could be massive ripple [21:06] effects. Put all this together with the [21:08] fact that the Gulf states, the Saudis [21:11] and the other Gulf states in my opinion [21:12] don't want even want the regime to fall. [21:14] They're going to try to get Trump to [21:15] stop this and keep the regime intact. So [21:18] there's a lot of factors going on here [21:20] that really play into what could end up [21:23] happening. [21:24] Um and but these are the things to keep [21:27] our eyes on. We need to watch for are we [21:30] seeing defections or refusing to follow [21:33] orders in the lower part of the rank and [21:35] file of the IRGC [21:38] and how does the Iranian army behave? If [21:40] we start to see actual defections or or [21:42] or personnel refusing to carry out [21:44] orders, then there is a chance that the [21:46] popular uprising could be much more [21:48] successful. We also have to keep our [21:50] eyes on the minority groups [21:52] and and see if they're trying to write [21:55] if they're trying to cause any violence [21:56] but meaning like the Kurds, the [21:58] Baluchis, the MEK and these other [22:00] opposition groups. So there's a lot to [22:02] keep our eyes on here. I'll try to keep [22:03] everyone abreast of things but make no [22:06] mistake about it. Trump is pushing for [22:08] this what he calls Venezuela option but [22:10] I don't believe it's really transferable [22:13] to Iran. [22:14] So we'll see what happens. We'll keep [22:16] you informed. Thank you for watching [22:18] and and God bless you. Stay safe.
