Transcript [00:00] Everyone, [00:01] I want to react to this Victor Davis [00:03] Hanson clip that I'm going to play you a [00:05] few minutes [00:07] and use it to talk about what's actually [00:09] going on now and I think it should calm [00:11] a lot of people down who are getting [00:13] nervous right now. A lot of people are [00:14] nervous about the extension of the [00:16] ceasefire and that it looks like Trump [00:18] is looking for an off-ramp or getting [00:20] cold feet or getting skittish and I [00:23] don't believe that that's what's [00:24] happening and if you've been watching [00:26] this channel [00:27] you've heard my analysis of what this [00:29] ceasefire actually is [00:32] but this Victor Davis Hanson clip makes [00:33] a lot of things clear and I'm going to [00:35] drill down on a few of the points he [00:37] makes and we're also going to take a [00:39] brief look at how the Iranian regime is [00:42] reacting to the ceasefire extension and [00:44] that hopefully will make everything [00:46] clear and we can all rest easy with what [00:49] is happening. So that's what we're going [00:50] to do in this video. Let's go ahead and [00:52] pull up Victor Davis Hanson on the Trump [00:56] ceasefire [00:58] extension well or on the Iranian bluff [01:02] as he calls it. Here we go. [01:06] Well, you mentioned the war Victor. So [01:09] the Straits of Hormuz are the Iranians [01:11] say they're in control. This is [01:14] from two days ago where [01:17] clearly Donald Trump saying we are now [01:19] in control. Anyway, what's your take on [01:21] on the latest headlines Victor? Nothing [01:24] that the Iranians say can be taken at [01:26] face value because there is no Iranian [01:29] government. [01:30] The the first and second echelon of that [01:33] apparatus gone. So you have [01:36] the people in the military that's one [01:38] click. [01:40] You've got the theocracy that Khomeini [01:43] Khomeini you know surrogates. That's [01:45] another. You've got the Islamic [01:47] Revolutionary Guard Corps. It's probably [01:50] the most dominant. [01:51] And [01:53] then you've got these elected [01:54] politicians and they have two driving [01:58] concerns. One [02:00] they are terrified that one of the other [02:02] three groups will think they're weak and [02:05] are negotiating with the Americans and [02:07] either kill them or marginalize them or [02:09] cut off their revenue such as it is. So [02:11] they always want to outdo each other. At [02:14] the same time they want to outdo each [02:16] other by saying you know we're we're [02:17] winning and all this crazy stuff. They [02:20] are also afraid of an uprising because [02:24] if there's an uprising [02:26] any of their hardline stuff that [02:28] protects them from each other [02:31] is going to put a noose around their [02:33] neck and a Nuremberg-like trial given [02:35] they've killed 30 to 40,000 people. [02:38] So you got the schizophrenia that on one [02:40] day they want to be moderate and signal [02:43] the Iranian people that maybe we might [02:45] transition someday with me as a figure [02:48] and the other day it's hardliner please [02:50] don't kill me if you're in the Guard [02:52] Corps. [02:53] So it's almost impossible. The other [02:55] thing that's going on is [02:57] they [02:59] they did a and everybody says well why [03:01] didn't he blockade Iran and and open [03:04] this [03:05] he had a sequence that makes sense. He [03:07] destroyed [03:08] their air capital navy [03:11] air defenses most of their military [03:14] industrial nuclear complex [03:17] and then he said let's talk and he had [03:19] negotiations. [03:21] And now he [03:24] started a blockade that reportedly is [03:27] costing them $430 million a [03:29] day in revenue. Now this is on top of [03:31] losing probably a 50-year investment of [03:34] a half a trillion dollars in [03:36] a missile arsenal barracks military [03:40] apparatus vehicles planes drones nuclear [03:44] factories you name it. It's wiped out. I [03:48] just make a little footnote that Jack [03:50] because Ben Rhodes and the Obama people [03:52] are all on TV saying oh Trump he's just [03:56] people don't understand he's just [03:58] reinstituting [03:59] the Obama [04:01] joint plan plan of joint you know the [04:03] comprehensive plan joint line of action. [04:06] >> are we sending pallets of cash over? [04:08] Yeah, exactly. We're not it's nothing [04:10] the same. [04:11] Obama was arming rearming a ascendant [04:15] Iran that was scary and indomitable so [04:19] people thought. We are dealing with a [04:21] prostrate weakened enfeebled [04:25] corpse of Iran and we're dictating to [04:28] we're not negotiating. We're dictating [04:30] to it. So if these negotiations break [04:33] down [04:34] and Iran thinks it's going to send some [04:37] missiles into Saudi Arabia or storm a [04:40] tanker Donald Trump will take out their [04:44] bridges the first day probably he will [04:46] take out their [04:48] power plants. [04:50] And the only what is Iran thinking? Well [04:52] Iran is thinking that we're going to go [04:55] into the traditional rug I don't I don't [04:57] think that's an ethnic stereotype. I've [04:59] been in the Middle East so now I've [05:00] bought a rug in [05:01] Turkey once and one in Greece and it's [05:04] it's [05:05] you you barter but that's what they [05:07] think. They're going to go to the bazaar [05:09] and barter and yesterday today and [05:12] tomorrow whatever they say doesn't [05:13] matter and draw out the negotiations [05:16] hoping that a the left will win the [05:20] midterms the midterms will be lost Trump [05:22] will be impeached and the Republican [05:25] Congress people will put pressure on him [05:28] and before the midterms to get out the [05:30] Europeans will put pressure Japan [05:32] everybody they think [05:34] time is on their side and he will fold [05:37] and then they can reconstruct and they [05:39] probably feel they have some fissionable [05:41] material they can fish out. Okay. [05:45] Time is not on their side not when [05:47] you're losing 400 million plus a day. [05:49] All he has to do is not give in [05:52] for the next 5 to 6 10 days and he still [05:55] has plenty of time during for the [05:57] midterms. Just don't put the foot boot [06:01] off their neck. Make sure they they [06:03] suffer 400 450 million dollars in lost [06:07] revenue and that'll mean finally these [06:09] people who are living lavishly and [06:12] sending their children and their friends [06:14] all over Europe and the United States [06:15] money it'll cut off. [06:18] And when that and then they will [06:19] negotiate. If you want to accelerate a [06:21] little bit if they start to do crazy [06:23] things then yeah take out their bridges [06:25] or something. If anybody complains in [06:27] the left and says that you're going to [06:29] impeach them just remind you everybody [06:31] that Bill Clinton took out every bridge [06:33] on the Danube in 1999 [06:35] when he bombed any also bombed all the [06:38] electrical facilities in um [06:41] in Belgrade. So don't don't fall for [06:44] that hysteria. So I think we're in a [06:46] pretty good place. [06:48] I think a lot of people are getting [06:49] nervous that it's going on too long but [06:53] uh he's got another week or two to put [06:56] He's right on the verge if he can hold [06:58] out against all this European and [07:00] domestic pressure and Asian pressure and [07:03] the Gulf pressure. The Gulf pressure is [07:05] either cut a deal with them or destroy [07:07] them but don't leave them. How do you [07:09] how do you cut a deal with liars so [07:11] Victor? You can't can't you can't. You [07:13] have to dictate. It's like talking to [07:15] the Japanese after World War we learned [07:18] that they bombed Pearl Harbor while they [07:20] were telling us that they wanted to have [07:22] peace [07:23] and they were work right right in the [07:25] middle of negotiations with Cordell Hall [07:28] did they plan and that that fleet was [07:30] already you know it was already on its [07:32] way to [07:33] Pearl Harbor when the negotiations [07:34] started so they knew that. And so when [07:37] we saw them on September 2nd in Tokyo [07:39] Bay MacArthur handed them a list of [07:42] demand unconditional surrender free use [07:45] of your country by the United States [07:47] military United States military will be [07:50] the occupying power and the military [07:52] government to reform. [07:55] And they looked around and they thought [07:57] we do not want another atomic we didn't [08:00] have another atomic bomb for months [08:02] but we they didn't know that. We don't [08:03] want crazy Curtis LeMay bombing us back [08:06] to the Stone Age again. [08:08] And they agreed same thing with Hitler. [08:09] They thought as soon as Hitler killed [08:10] himself [08:12] all these people came out of the [08:13] woodwork Dönitz Göring they you know [08:16] even Himmler. Oh we're the government [08:18] deal with us we'll we'll will you not no [08:20] no no you were defeated and here's [08:23] what's going to happen. You're going to [08:24] be occupied you're going to be zones of [08:26] occupation you're going to have no [08:28] military nothing and this time you're [08:30] not going to cheat like you did after [08:32] World War I. [08:34] And that's what they did. [08:36] You don't they don't have any cards to [08:38] play. They have none. [08:40] The only card they have is the dream [08:42] house of the Democratic media nexus that [08:44] thinks they're that this is a disaster. [08:47] Okay. So that's Victor Davis Hanson. [08:50] And uh [08:52] let me just pull that down. [08:56] So I keep hearing people on the right [08:59] people who should know better are [09:00] starting to worry. Right? They see the [09:01] ceasefire being extended they see the [09:03] negotiations seemingly going nowhere. [09:06] They see Trump sending envoys to [09:08] Islamabad and Iran and saying we're not [09:10] ready for the next round. [09:13] Uh you know Iran saying that and they [09:14] think well maybe Trump's being played [09:16] Iran is running out the clock. This is a [09:18] mistake. [09:20] But as Victor Davis Hanson just [09:21] explained that is wrong. [09:23] And frankly it confirms everything I've [09:25] been saying about the situation from the [09:27] beginning. Let me walk you through it. [09:30] So first point we're going to make three [09:32] main points here in this video. Point [09:34] number one [09:35] something I've been saying since before [09:36] the war. [09:37] The regime's number one and really only [09:41] big concern is its own survival as a [09:44] regime. [09:45] And Victor Davis Hanson lays out [09:47] something that I think a lot of Western [09:49] analysts miss because they keep trying [09:51] to treat the Islamic Republic like a [09:53] normal state with a coherent foreign [09:55] policy that actually cares about the [09:57] things that normal states care about, [09:58] but it is not. [10:01] He also points out that there's no [10:02] unified Iranian government. You have [10:05] these four competing power centers, the [10:06] military, meaning the Iranian army, [10:10] which is different from the IRGC, right? [10:13] The uh [10:14] Iran has had since the beginning of the [10:16] of these of this regime two armies, two [10:19] militaries, two different air forces, [10:20] two different navies, two different [10:22] militaries. And one is the IRGC and one [10:24] is the military. The Iranian military is [10:27] still there. [10:28] And they kind of are intact. We've only [10:30] taken out the top top top echelon, but [10:33] the but from that top echelon down, [10:35] we've kind of left them intact, and we [10:37] might need them down the road because [10:39] they are a more moderate, potentially [10:41] stabilizing force once the regime falls. [10:43] That's a separate issue. So, you have [10:44] the military, [10:46] you have the theocracy, the mullahs, you [10:48] have the IRGC itself, which is the [10:50] largest and most powerful of these [10:52] factions. They have [10:54] They have the thugs in the street. They [10:56] have uh a nationwide uh network of these [11:00] thugs who are armed. [11:02] They're the real muscle. And then you [11:04] have the elected politicians, and that's [11:06] like Peseschkian, the uh president, and [11:09] Aragchi, the foreign minister, and their [11:10] dynamic ideal. So, you have all these [11:12] different four groups. [11:14] They're all And all these groups right [11:16] now are focused on positioning [11:19] themselves that they're the main [11:20] decision-maker [11:21] and also not being destroyed by the [11:23] other three. [11:25] And Victor Davis Hanson puts it pretty [11:26] plainly. These people are terrified. [11:28] They're panicked. They're terrified that [11:30] if they look weak, [11:32] one of the other factions will [11:33] marginalize them [11:35] and and possibly even kill them or cut [11:37] off their money if depending on which [11:39] faction we're talking about here. [11:41] And they're also equally terrified that [11:43] if they take too hard-line a stance, if [11:45] there's a popular uprising and they try [11:47] to suppress it, [11:49] that will put a proverbial noose around [11:52] their neck because they've already [11:53] killed somewhere between 30 and 40,000 [11:55] of their and they don't want to make [11:57] that situation worse. So, they're stuck. [12:00] Side note, I think that this is the [12:02] ideal time for the Iranian people to [12:04] take to the streets because while all [12:05] this is going on [12:07] is the [12:08] the last thing the Iranians could do and [12:11] get away with is start shooting [12:13] protesters again [12:14] while they're playing this this game [12:17] with the Americans and trying to get the [12:19] Americans to back off of the blockade [12:21] and uh and and and prolong the [12:24] negotiations. If they start shooting [12:25] their own people in the streets, it will [12:27] not be good for them. So, I think this [12:28] is the best time for the people to come [12:29] out. Side point. Okay. [12:31] The point here is that this government [12:34] is not making rational strategic [12:36] calculations. [12:37] I pointed out just 2 days ago in a video [12:40] on this channel that [12:42] there was about six different news [12:44] items, quote unquote news items, in [12:45] Iranian state media all in one afternoon [12:48] from uh all basically saying the same [12:50] thing, trying to get the Americans [12:53] to understand that there can't be a [12:54] negotiation if they keep the blockade on [12:56] cuz they're panicking about the [12:57] blockade. [12:59] The the the collection of factions that [13:01] make up the Iranian regime right now are [13:03] in survival panic. [13:05] And [13:06] you have to take that into account when [13:08] you read their behavior vis-à -vis the [13:10] ceasefire and potential negotiations [13:12] because nothing they say here is really [13:14] about diplomacy. It's about the internal [13:16] positioning and about each faction [13:18] signaling that they're not weak and [13:20] they're not the ones who gave in. [13:23] And also trying to position themselves [13:24] as the actual authorities to make a [13:26] decision. Now, this is also why Trump's [13:28] talk [13:29] from the beginning of the war of a [13:31] Venezuela model for regime change is [13:33] looking less and less realistic. Just to [13:34] review, the Venezuela model is where you [13:37] just remove the top top top echelon like [13:39] you took out Maduro, and then you work [13:41] with the the the technocrats and the and [13:45] the other people in the regime who are a [13:47] layer or two down who can keep the [13:50] trains running on time, so to speak, and [13:51] they can keep stability. That's what [13:53] Trump wants in Iran cuz he doesn't want [13:55] it to devolve into an Iraq or [13:57] Libya-style chaos. [13:59] But the Venezuela analogy only works if [14:01] there's a faction inside the power [14:03] structure willing [14:05] to break ranks, able to actually make a [14:07] deal and manage a transition. I don't [14:09] know if there is. [14:11] In Venezuela, you had military [14:12] commanders who were reachable. You [14:14] didn't have so many different factions. [14:16] You had people at the top who were [14:18] basically mobsters who wanted to make a [14:20] lot of money who could easily be flipped [14:22] and work with the Americans with a gun [14:23] to their head. In Iran, [14:26] the faction that would have to sign off [14:28] on any transition ultimately is the IRGC [14:30] because they are the muscle. And the [14:32] IRGC is also the least amenable to a [14:36] deal because they're also the most [14:38] ideologically committed [14:41] um in terms of having large numbers of [14:43] people. Obviously, the mullahs, the the [14:45] the theocrats are also ideologically [14:47] committed, and that's why the mullahs, [14:50] like the the religious leadership and [14:51] the IRGC, are very closely aligned. [14:54] These are not people who are going to be [14:57] amenable to engineering a kind of [14:59] Venezuela-style soft landing for the [15:02] fall of the regime. [15:04] So, the Venezuela model, regime change [15:07] from within and managed transition from [15:09] without, runs into a very hard brick [15:12] wall in the Iranian power structure, [15:15] which means [15:17] that if the goal is to fundamentally [15:19] change [15:20] the situation in Iran, [15:24] then what Trump is doing right now is [15:25] the best option, which is what we'll [15:27] call siege to the point of surrender. [15:30] We call it a ceasefire, and that's fine. [15:32] We'll get to that in a moment, but it's [15:34] really a siege. [15:36] And it's strangling them. [15:39] It's really the It's really the only [15:40] option. It's the right option to bring [15:42] down the regime. I've been saying this [15:43] for months. The regime's primary [15:45] interest [15:46] is not Iran. It's not even the nuclear [15:48] program. It's the survival of the [15:51] regime, of the people currently in [15:52] power, so that no matter how battered [15:55] and bruised they are when the guns fall [15:57] silent and Trump packs off or the or the [15:59] Democrats win the midterms or whatever, [16:02] that they can reconstitute themselves. [16:04] So, that was one point. [16:06] Point two, and I've already alluded to [16:08] this, but let's make this very clear, [16:09] and this might be the a key point for a [16:11] lot of people watching this video, a lot [16:13] of people on our side, people I've met [16:15] in synagogue, in the street, [16:17] at work, who are worried about Trump [16:19] extending the ceasefire, extending the [16:21] deadline, and and [16:23] folks, [16:24] this is not a ceasefire. That's my [16:27] That's my second point. This is not a [16:29] ceasefire. We're calling it a ceasefire, [16:30] and that's good, but it's not a [16:32] ceasefire. Let me be very direct. The [16:34] word ceasefire [16:38] is a distraction. [16:40] A ceasefire means that both sides stop [16:43] applying pressure. It's a pause in the [16:46] war. It's a pause in hostilities. [16:48] Everyone stands down. Everyone gets a [16:51] breather. That is not what is happening [16:53] at all. What is happening is that the [16:56] kinetic loud bombing phase of the war [16:59] has paused, [17:00] and the United States is now running a [17:03] siege, a naval blockade of all of Iran's [17:05] ports, [17:06] cutting off their economy. They even [17:08] went after ships in the Pacific that [17:10] were that were Iranian ships. They are [17:13] blockading and strangling and choking [17:15] the entire Iranian economy. This is what [17:17] we call siege warfare. Siege warfare has [17:20] been a form of warfare from time [17:23] immemorial. And we simply moved from [17:25] bombing to siege. [17:28] And Victor Davis Hanson gives us the [17:30] number that it's costing them. It's [17:32] costing $430 million a day in lost [17:35] revenue every single day. [17:38] And that's on top of the destruction of [17:40] what Victor Davis Hanson describes as a [17:42] 50-year half trillion dollar investment, [17:46] the missile arsenal, the nuclear [17:47] infrastructure, [17:49] the military-industrial complex. It's [17:50] all gone. [17:52] Okay? The pressure has not stopped. [17:54] Though, the bombing has stopped, but the [17:56] pressure has not stopped. The instrument [17:58] has changed. Instead of bombs, it's [18:00] siege. It's economic strangulation. [18:04] Right? It's not air strikes, so we think [18:06] of it as a ceasefire. [18:08] Siege warfare is is the is [18:12] is being very effective, and it's what [18:14] we're seeing now. So, that's point [18:15] number two. It's not a ceasefire. [18:17] And by the way, it's good to call it a [18:18] ceasefire because as long as it's called [18:21] a ceasefire, that calms down the oil [18:23] prices, that keeps the left quiet, um it [18:26] puts more pressure on the Iranians to [18:28] come to the table if you call it a [18:29] ceasefire. There's a lot of good reasons [18:31] to call it a ceasefire, and there's no [18:33] reason for Trump to talk about it being [18:35] a siege, but let's make no mistake about [18:37] it. It's a siege. Point number three. [18:41] And this is the key. [18:42] It's the reason I'm sitting here talking [18:45] to you. Stop worrying about the [18:47] extension. [18:49] Let's talk about why people are nervous. [18:52] The argument from the worried camp goes [18:54] something like this. [18:56] Iran is playing for time. They're going [18:58] to drag out the negotiations. They're [19:00] going to run out the clock to the [19:01] midterms. They're going to count on [19:03] domestic and international pressure to [19:05] force Trump's hand. [19:08] The Europeans are complaining. The Gulf [19:10] states are nervous and skittish. The [19:12] longer this goes on, the more the [19:13] pressure builds on Washington to cut a [19:15] deal. [19:16] Any deal. [19:18] So, Victor Davis Hanson addresses this [19:20] directly, and his answer is simple. Time [19:22] is not on Iran's side. We're used to [19:24] time being on Iran's side because the [19:26] usual Iranian mode of of [19:29] of negotiation with Westerners is you [19:32] kick the can down the road and you [19:33] prolong things. Why? [19:35] Not just to get to the next [19:37] milestone like the midterms or whatever. [19:39] Every Western Every negotiation the [19:42] Iranians ever have with Westerners, they [19:44] prolong it for a very simple reason. [19:46] Westerners are bad negotiators because [19:48] what Westerners do when and [19:50] is going on, you know, they start off [19:52] with their demands of what they want. [19:54] And then as the negotiation goes on and [19:56] on and on, the longer it goes, the more [19:58] a Westerner Westerners believe that [20:00] compromise is a good thing and that [20:01] compromise works. So, the longer the [20:03] negotiation goes on without a deal, the [20:05] more a Westerner is inclined to say, [20:07] "Well, maybe if I just drop that demand [20:10] or that demand or maybe if I just give [20:12] in to that request of the other side, [20:14] maybe I'll get a deal then." And then [20:16] you don't get a deal and then a few [20:17] weeks later the Westerner goes, "Well, [20:19] maybe I should just make one more [20:20] compromise." [20:21] So, the and and the Persians the [20:23] Persians the Iranian regime they know [20:25] that if [20:26] things go on a long time, that helps [20:28] them for a whole host of reasons as [20:30] we've laid out. [20:32] But, this is not that. [20:35] This is a siege. They are losing $430 [20:37] million a day. Think of what that number [20:39] means. [20:40] That means that every week Iran loses $3 [20:44] billion. [20:45] Every month $12 billion. [20:49] The regime's ability to pay its people, [20:51] to fund its proxies, to keep all the [20:53] factions quiet, to keep the IRGC and the [20:56] Basij loyal, [20:57] all of this depends on their revenue and [21:00] that revenue is being choked. [21:04] And this connects right back to the IRGC [21:05] issue. [21:07] The IRGC's power, its networks, its [21:09] ability to keep its people in line, all [21:12] depends on the flow of money. [21:14] So, the blockade is not just squeezing [21:16] the Iranian government to get them to [21:18] the negotiating table. The it is it is [21:21] squeezing [21:23] the one faction that has the most to [21:25] lose from any deal. The elected official [21:28] faction doesn't depend on the money flow [21:30] quite in the same way that the IRGC [21:32] does. I mean, they do, but they don't [21:34] have a hundreds of thousands of [21:36] operatives with weapons who need to be [21:38] paid every month. [21:42] So, the faction that has the most to [21:43] lose [21:45] from any deal with the Americans and the [21:47] most to lose from the blockade is the [21:50] IRGC. You starve the IRGC of revenue [21:53] long enough and the internal [21:57] uh [21:58] the internal workings of the [22:00] organization start to start to get very [22:04] uh unstable. [22:07] This is siege warfare and it's creating [22:10] the conditions where even the hardest [22:12] hardliners are panicking. [22:14] Now, if you want a real-time [22:15] illustration of just how disoriented the [22:17] regime is right now, take a look at how [22:20] Iranian state media covered Trump's [22:23] ceasefire extension. This is a news item [22:27] from yesterday. Let me show it to you. [22:31] Uh let me pull this up. Hold on. [22:35] Uh [22:36] let me get it. Let me find this. Here it [22:38] is. [22:42] Okay, take a look. This is an item from [22:45] WANA from Iranian state media that it's [22:48] it's a very strange news item. What does [22:51] Trump's open-ended ceasefire extension [22:53] mean? I love pieces like this because [22:55] one of the benefits of this trait of [22:59] Iranian culture, which is that they [23:01] always want to save face and not look [23:04] foolish, [23:05] is that whenever they don't know what on [23:07] earth is going on, whenever they're [23:08] trying to figure out Trump, they publish [23:10] these pieces that give a few different [23:12] theories of what is actually happening [23:16] and that way they're covered so that [23:18] they can always look smart and look like [23:20] they had it all figured out in advance. [23:21] So, if they come up with three different [23:23] uh predictions and one of them comes [23:25] right, they can say, "You see, we knew [23:26] it all along." It's a strange trait [23:28] because it's actually counterproductive [23:30] because they show their cards when they [23:32] do this. [23:33] But, they do it to save face. And here [23:36] they write this piece to try and to [23:38] understand what the heck Trump is doing. [23:41] So, look at this. What does Trump's [23:43] open-ended ceasefire mean? And they come [23:44] up with five different possibilities. [23:47] And look at the five possibilities. [23:48] They're like [23:49] all over the place. [23:51] One, it's possibly a sign of military [23:53] deadlock. [23:55] That maybe the United States has failed [23:57] to achieve its objectives. After testing [23:59] multiple scenarios, it has concluded [24:01] that continuing the war would not bring [24:03] any more gains. That's one possibility [24:05] for why Trump is extending the cease [24:06] ceasefire. In other words, he doesn't [24:08] want to fight because the fighting [24:09] wasn't working. [24:11] Possibility number two, that it's a [24:13] deceptive move [24:15] by Trump, a tactical deceptive move [24:18] uh suggesting the extension could be [24:20] tactical. Under this scenario, actions [24:22] such as limited operations or targeted [24:24] assassinations could still follow. [24:27] Possibility number three, that it's a [24:28] shift in the US role in the conflict, [24:31] meaning that America's looking for an [24:32] off-ramp [24:34] and looking to hand the whole thing over [24:35] to the Israelis and that maybe the [24:37] United States is going to start [24:38] withdrawing. [24:39] Possibility number four, that it's a [24:42] continuation of naval blockade and [24:44] hostile posture, which is I think the [24:46] correct one. That is really what it is. [24:51] And possibility number five, that it is [24:53] an effort to sustain a shadow war. And I [24:57] don't know what they mean by this even [24:58] after reading their explanation, to [25:00] exert indirect pressure on Iran's [25:02] economy and political environment. I [25:04] don't know what that means really. It's [25:05] not really indirect pressure, it's kind [25:07] of direct. But, they come up with these [25:08] five theories about what Trump is doing. [25:14] And that shows you how confused they [25:16] are, how much they are in disarray. [25:20] Right, Trump [25:22] Iran canceled going to Islamabad. They [25:25] canceled going to Pakistan. Trump [25:26] extended the ceasefire without being [25:28] asked, without an Iranian request. And [25:31] he flipped his own position within 7 [25:33] hours. It was a confusing move that [25:35] demanded some sort of response. Iran [25:38] does not have an official response. [25:39] Nothing, no statement. [25:41] Tehran looked at what just happened and [25:43] had nothing to say. [25:44] And in their own media coverage of the [25:46] extension, they list five separate [25:48] contradictory theories for why Trump did [25:50] it. Military deadlock, tactical [25:52] deception, the US pulling back, the [25:54] blockade is continued hostility and a [25:57] shadow war, whatever that means. Five [25:59] different theories and they can't even [26:00] pick one. They don't know what is [26:02] hitting them. They don't know what's [26:03] going on. [26:06] Think about that. We're in a situation, [26:08] they're panicked, they're confused, [26:10] they're getting choked and losing money. [26:12] Meanwhile, it's being called a ceasefire [26:15] and that's keeping oil prices calmer. [26:17] That's keeping the world that was [26:19] screaming and and yelling about you [26:21] know, when they're bombing. It keeps [26:23] everyone relatively quiet. Everyone can [26:25] talk about how there's a ceasefire. [26:27] And meanwhile, [26:29] the regime is confused and divided. The [26:32] infighting has begun. [26:34] They're struggling to explain to their [26:36] own people what's happening. That's [26:37] making them look bad in the eyes of [26:38] their people, which is huge. It's one of [26:40] the big pieces of the puzzle that we [26:43] need. We need them to look weak and [26:45] confused in the eyes of the Iranian [26:47] people cuz the worst thing is for the [26:49] Iranian people to still be intimidated [26:50] by them and still be worried about them. [26:52] And the more disjointed they look in the [26:54] eyes of their own people, the better. [26:56] And that's the elegance, that's the [26:58] beauty, the genius of what Trump is [27:00] doing. Whether he's doing it by design [27:02] or instinct is immaterial. [27:05] The kinetic phase of the war, let me say [27:07] it this way. The bombing, the kinetic [27:09] phase of the war was always going to [27:11] generate lots of pressure to stop. [27:13] It's big optics. It's bombs. [27:17] Those images create a political [27:19] environment. The European leaders start [27:22] lashing out. You get protesters in the [27:24] streets to, you know, in the West. You [27:27] get the entire Democratic media [27:29] apparatus screaming at it's a war crime. [27:33] And that and that political pressure is [27:34] real. And it also means a a spike in oil [27:37] prices. [27:38] But, a blockade is quiet. [27:41] There's nothing to photograph in a [27:42] blockade. It doesn't generate dramatic [27:46] uh images. [27:49] Especially if you call it a ceasefire. [27:52] It just slowly and quietly destroys the [27:55] financial foundation of the regime [27:57] that's already fractured and panicking. [27:59] So, when you extend the ceasefire [28:01] unilaterally [28:03] without being asked, while keeping the [28:05] blockade, the siege fully in place, [28:08] you add this layer of psychological [28:10] pressure of this confusion on top of the [28:12] economic one. And now they're [28:14] questioning every move and they're keep [28:16] and they're producing a five theory [28:18] explainer [28:20] instead of a coherent strategy. Why [28:23] would Trump return to the noisier, more [28:26] politically costly instrument, bombing, [28:29] when the quiet one is working? [28:32] The answer is you wouldn't [28:34] and you shouldn't. [28:36] And Victor Davis Hanson ends with a very [28:38] clear bottom line. Iran has no cards. [28:40] The only thing sustaining the nervous [28:42] energy around the situation, the only [28:44] thing giving Iran any leverage at all, [28:46] is the Western media and political [28:49] complex that keeps insisting Trump is [28:50] making mistakes. He isn't. The ceasefire [28:53] is a siege. The siege is the strategy. [28:56] And the evidence that the strategy is [28:58] working is in plain sight in the panic [29:01] and chaos in the regime's own public [29:03] statements, the internal divisions that [29:06] are now spilling out into the open. [29:10] So, everyone who's worried that the [29:11] extension of the ceasefire is a sign of [29:13] weakness or drift in American policy, [29:16] I'll say this. You're looking at the [29:19] wrong thing or you're looking at it the [29:20] wrong way. The war did not pause, it got [29:23] quieter [29:25] and it is working. [29:27] The Venezuela model, that's a different [29:29] issue. That I believe was always a [29:30] fantasy that given who holds the power [29:32] in Iran, [29:34] but what replaced what might replace the [29:36] Venezuela model, the real fall of the [29:39] regime, [29:40] is already underway. And that's what [29:42] we're seeing here. I hope this calmed [29:44] you down [29:45] and I hope you enjoyed this video. [29:47] Please like, share, subscribe, do all [29:48] that good stuff. And make sure that you [29:50] go over to Israel 365 news and you catch [29:53] all the content we're putting up there [29:54] cuz you don't want to miss those videos. [29:56] There's a lot of very important [29:57] interviews and other video content. And [29:59] also in the description of this video, [30:01] you'll see a link to subscribe to Israel [30:04] 365 action and news newsletters. Make [30:06] sure you hit that so that you're really [30:08] in you're so you're plugged in to [30:10] everything that we're doing and you [30:11] don't miss anything. All right, God [30:12] bless. Thanks for watching.
