Transcript [00:00] So, what do we make of this ceasefire? [00:03] Is it going to last? Is it a good thing? [00:05] Is it not a good thing? These are all [00:08] questions that, you know, time will [00:10] tell. I'm not really sure how long a [00:13] ceasefire with this regime can last. And [00:16] uh it certainly is a bit worrisome if [00:18] Trump gets his wish of creating a [00:21] Venezuela situation. We've been talking [00:23] about that for weeks. Where he's trying [00:25] to salvage uh whatever uh whatever [00:29] leadership there is in the regime that [00:31] still has power to hold things together [00:33] and do business with them rather than [00:35] bring the regime completely down. [00:38] These are all questions uh for another [00:40] day as we have to see how things play [00:42] out in the next few days. I have a lot [00:43] of thoughts on that. What I want to do [00:44] in this video is uh I want to address [00:48] how the Iranians are talking about the [00:51] ceasefire. And we're going to do what we [00:53] what we always do on this channel, uh [00:55] which is take a look at Iranian state [00:58] media. Now, I made another video about [01:00] the religious aspect of this, about how [01:02] they're seeing uh the the the [01:05] relationship of the ceasefire to the [01:07] 40th day after the death of Khamenei, [01:10] which has a very important religious [01:13] significance to these fanatical twelver [01:16] Shiite Muslims. Go Make sure you see [01:18] that video on this channel as well. But [01:20] here I just want to take a look at [01:21] Iranian uh regime media [01:25] and see what they're saying about this. [01:27] One thing that we've learned, if you're [01:28] new to this channel, let me explain why [01:30] it's so important the regime media. You [01:32] might think, "Well, it's just [01:33] propaganda. What difference does it [01:34] make?" It's just the opposite. Let me [01:35] explain. [01:37] Excuse me. See, in if you live in a [01:39] society where there's free where there's [01:42] freedom of the press, where there's [01:43] where there's free media, [01:46] then you don't necessarily know. I mean, [01:49] it's a wonderful thing to have freedom [01:50] of the press. I'm all in I'm in favor of [01:52] it. But if I read an editorial in an [01:55] American newspaper, it doesn't [01:56] necessarily tell me anything about what [01:59] the government is thinking. Uh [02:01] obviously, because there's freedom of [02:02] the press. And what you have in [02:04] totalitarian regimes where there is no [02:07] freedom of the press is that the media [02:10] then becomes a newsletter put out by the [02:14] regime. And that could be very helpful [02:16] because when you see, you know, what [02:18] stories they're putting up there and [02:20] what the editorial slant is and what the [02:22] analysis is saying, what you're actually [02:25] getting is a peek inside how they're [02:28] thinking and how they and what [02:29] narratives they're trying to push. And [02:31] if you read that carefully, you read [02:32] that critically, you can really learn a [02:34] lot about who you're dealing with, what [02:36] you're dealing with, and where things [02:38] are headed. That's why we do this here, [02:40] uh [02:41] looking at Iranian state media. I make [02:42] it a point in my own [02:45] for my own understanding of things to [02:47] check in on the home media, the local [02:50] media of all the players involved in any [02:52] situation. So, in this war I've been [02:54] reading Saudi media and Emirati media [02:56] and Turkish media and, you know, I'm [02:59] reading all the media of the [03:01] the local media, Egyptian media. You [03:04] want to see what they're saying and it [03:06] gives you a fuller picture. All right, [03:07] let's get right to it. [03:09] Here we go. So, this is the front page [03:10] of WANA today and I wanted to show you [03:12] the front page not because it discusses [03:14] the ceasefire but because it doesn't, [03:17] meaning in the top story. You would [03:19] think that the top story on the front [03:21] page of Iranian state media would be the [03:24] ceasefire, but it is not. The top story [03:27] is the massive public turnout on the [03:29] 40th day after the assassination of [03:31] Iran's leader. And of, you know, [03:34] for why that is the top story rather [03:37] than the ceasefire is the top story. And [03:39] this is true also in Tasnim, which is [03:41] the other regime media. It's a [03:44] That's the [03:45] um [03:47] That's the media run by the IRGC, where [03:49] this is actually run by the government. [03:51] It's really the same thing. They're both [03:52] regime media. They're two different [03:54] outlets. Also there, the top story has [03:56] to do with um with the 40th day after [04:01] Khamenei was killed. So, you can go [04:03] watch that other video to understand [04:04] that. [04:05] Uh but let's take a look at what they're [04:06] saying about the deal. So, first we have [04:09] the official statement, the Iran Supreme [04:11] National Security Council statement on [04:14] the two-week ceasefire. This was issued [04:16] This was issued on April 8th, the day of [04:18] the ceasefire. And here is the text of [04:21] what they say. I'm going to read this in [04:22] full so that we get their whole [04:24] statement. [04:26] The enemy, in its cowardly, illegal, and [04:29] criminal war against the Iranian nation, [04:31] has suffered an undeniable, historical, [04:34] and crushing defeat. There's your [04:35] opening sentence. Iran has won. The [04:38] enemy, the United States and Israel, [04:40] have lost. By the grace of the pure and [04:43] holy blood of the martyred leader of the [04:45] Islamic Revolution, His Eminence Grand [04:47] Ayatollah Imam Khamenei, peace be upon [04:49] him, the prudent measures of the Supreme [04:52] Leader of the Islamic Revolution and [04:53] Commander-in-Chief, His Eminence [04:55] Ayatollah Sayyid Mojtaba Khamenei, [04:57] that's the son, that's the new guy who [04:59] no one has seen, may God protect him, [05:02] and the struggle and bravery of the [05:03] warriors of Islam on the fronts, [05:06] especially the historical, lasting, and [05:08] heroic presence of you, the dear nation, [05:12] on the scene since the very first days [05:14] of the war, Iran has achieved a massive [05:17] victory and forced criminal America to [05:20] accept its 10-point plan. In this plan, [05:22] America is fundamentally committed to [05:25] guaranteeing non-aggression, [05:27] the continuation of Iran's control over [05:30] the Strait of Hormuz, the acceptance of [05:32] enrichment, enrichment of uranium, the [05:35] lifting of all primary and secondary [05:37] sanctions, the termination of all [05:38] resolutions [05:41] of the Security Council and the Board of [05:43] Governors, the payment of Iran's [05:44] damages, the withdrawal of US combat [05:47] forces from the region, and the [05:48] cessation of war on all fronts, [05:51] including against the heroic Islamic [05:54] resistance of Lebanon, meaning [05:56] Hezbollah. [05:57] That's what they say the ceasefire [05:59] includes. Now, the Americans deny that, [06:02] but that's that's their statement. Okay. [06:04] We congratulate all the people of Iran [06:06] on this victory and emphasize that until [06:09] the details of this victory are [06:10] finalized, there remains a need for the [06:13] steadfastness and prudence of officials [06:15] and the maintenance of unity and [06:17] solidarity among the Iranian people. [06:19] Islamic Iran, along with the brave [06:22] mujahideen of the resistance in Lebanon, [06:25] Iraq, Yemen, and occupied Palestine has [06:28] dealt blows to the enemy over the past [06:30] 40 days that the global historical [06:33] memory will never forget. Iran and the [06:35] axis of resistance, as representatives [06:38] of honor and humanity against the most [06:40] savage enemies of mankind, have given [06:43] them an unforgettable lesson after a [06:46] historical battle. [06:48] They have so crushed their forces, [06:50] facilities, infrastructure, and all [06:52] their political, economic, [06:53] technological, and military assets that [06:56] the enemy is now plunged into collapse [06:58] and desperation. That's what they're [07:00] saying, that they've completely [07:01] destroyed the American military, the [07:03] technological assets, the economy, [07:06] destroyed Israel, seeing no path before [07:09] it other than surrender to the will of [07:10] the great nation of Iran and the [07:12] honorable axis of resistance. Do you [07:14] understand? Their narrative is that they [07:16] crushed the Americans, they crushed the [07:18] Israelis, they brought them to their [07:20] knees, and there was no way out other [07:22] than to surrender to Iran. The ceasefire [07:25] is a surrender by the Americans and the [07:27] Israelis. Now, this might be laughable, [07:29] but I'll explain when I finish what [07:31] they're doing here. They're actually [07:32] doing something very important. [07:34] On the first day, when the criminal [07:36] enemies of Iran began this oppressive [07:39] war, they imagined they would succeed in [07:41] complete military dominance over Iran in [07:43] a short time and force Iran to surrender [07:46] by creating political and social [07:48] instability. They thought Iran's missile [07:51] and drone fire would be quickly [07:53] extinguished and did not believe that [07:55] Iran could deliver such a powerful [07:56] response beyond its borders and across [07:59] the entire region. Global evil Zionism [08:02] had convinced the ignorant president of [08:05] America that this war would finish Iran, [08:07] allowing them, after removing this last [08:10] bastion of humanity and mankind, to [08:13] comfortably commit any crime against [08:15] anyone they wished from then on. They [08:18] meaning Iran, the Iranian regime was [08:20] standing in the way of of these savages [08:24] trying to commit crimes against everyone [08:26] in the world. They dreamed of [08:27] partitioning dear Iran, plundering its [08:30] oil and wealth, and ultimately leaving [08:32] Iranians immersed in chaos, instability, [08:36] and insecurity for many long years. The [08:39] brave warriors of Islam and their [08:41] courageous allies in the axis of [08:43] resistance, despite their hearts being [08:46] wounded and torn by the martyrdom of [08:48] their Imam, decided, relying on Almighty [08:51] God, to and following the Lord and [08:53] Master of Martyrs, to give these enemies [08:56] a historical lesson once and for all. [08:59] They chose to take revenge for all [09:01] previous crimes and create conditions [09:03] where the enemy would forever cast away [09:06] the thought of aggression against dear [09:08] Iran, fully tasting the flavor of [09:11] humiliation and abasement before the [09:14] great nation of Iran. [09:17] With this strategy and relying on the [09:19] unprecedented political and social unity [09:22] established within the country, [09:23] unprecedented unity, right? Iran and the [09:26] resistance initiated one of the heaviest [09:29] hybrid battles in history against [09:31] America and the Zionist regime, [09:33] achieving all the objectives designed [09:35] for this conflict during this period. [09:38] Iran and the resistance almost [09:39] completely destroyed the American [09:41] military machine in the region. They [09:43] dealt crushing and profound blows to the [09:45] vast infrastructure and facilities that [09:47] the enemy had built and stationed around [09:49] the region over the years for this war [09:51] against Iran. In regional dimensions, [09:54] they imposed extensive casualties on the [09:57] criminal American Army and within the [09:59] occupied territories, that's Israel. [10:02] They delivered heavy and shattering [10:04] blows to the enemy's forces, [10:05] infrastructure, facilities, and assets. [10:09] Ob- None of this is true, obviously. [10:12] They so constrained the field on all [10:13] fronts that not only were none of the [10:16] enemy's main objectives realized, but [10:18] the enemy realized approximately 10 days [10:20] after the start of the war that it would [10:22] in no way have the capability to win [10:24] this war. For this reason, it began [10:27] attempting to establish contact with [10:28] Iran and requesting a ceasefire through [10:31] various channels and methods. You see, [10:34] asking for a ceasefire, saying you want [10:36] to negotiate, calling for a ceasefire [10:40] itself to them is a sign of weakness. [10:43] The honorable nation of Iran must know [10:45] that by the grace of their children's [10:47] struggle and their historic presence on [10:49] the scene, the enemy has been ple- [10:52] pleading for over a month for the [10:55] cessation of the fierce fire of Iran and [10:58] the resistance. However, the country's [10:59] officials, because it had been decided [11:01] from the very beginning that the war [11:03] would continue until objectives were [11:06] achieved, including the enemy's regret [11:09] and desperation and the removal of [11:11] long-term threats from the country, gave [11:13] a negative response to all these [11:15] requests and the war continued until [11:17] today, which is the 40th day. They're [11:20] pointing out that it's the 40th day. Go [11:22] see my other video on the 40th day. Uh [11:25] very important uh in in Shiite Muslim [11:28] thinking, the 40th day is uh very [11:31] auspicious. Furthermore, Iran has so far [11:34] rejected several deadlines presented by [11:37] the president of the United States and [11:39] continues to emphasize that it grants no [11:41] importance to any type of deadline from [11:44] the enemy. We now give tidings to the [11:46] great nation of Iran that almost all war [11:49] objectives have been realized and your [11:52] brave children have driven the enemy to [11:54] a historic helplessness and a lasting [11:57] defeat. Iran's historic decision, backed [12:00] by the unified support of the entire [12:02] nation, is to continue this battle for [12:04] as long as necessary until its massive [12:07] achievements are consolidated and new [12:09] security and political equations are [12:11] created in the region based on the [12:13] acceptance of the power and sovereignty [12:16] of Iran and the resistance. [12:18] In this regard, I know this is going on [12:20] a long time. That's part of the point. [12:22] In this regard and according to the [12:24] prudence of the supreme leader of the [12:25] Islamic Revolution, His Eminence [12:27] Ayatollah Sayyid Mojtaba Khamenei, may [12:29] God protect him, and the approval of the [12:32] Supreme National Security Council and [12:34] considering Iran and the resistance's [12:36] upper hand in the battlefield, the [12:38] enemy's inability to carry out its [12:41] threats despite all claims [12:44] and the formal acceptance of all the [12:46] rightful demands of the Iranian people, [12:48] it was decided that negotiations be held [12:50] in Islamabad to finalize the details. [12:53] This is so that was in a maximum of 15 [12:56] days. With the finalization of details, [12:59] Iran's victory on the field shall also [13:02] be consolidated in political [13:04] negotiations. [13:06] To this end, while rejecting all plans [13:08] presented by the enemy, Iran drafted a [13:11] 10-point plan and presented it to the [13:13] American side via the country of [13:15] Pakistan. It emphasized fundamental [13:17] points such as controlled passage [13:19] through the Strait of Hormuz in [13:21] coordination with Iran's armed forces, [13:23] which grants Iran a unique economic and [13:26] geopolitical position. The necessity of [13:28] ending the war against all components of [13:30] the axis of resistance, which means [13:32] Israel has to stop bombing Hezbollah, [13:34] which signifies a historic defeat for [13:36] the aggression of the child-killing [13:39] Israeli regime. [13:40] The withdrawal of US combat forces from [13:43] all bases and deployment points in the [13:46] region. [13:47] The establishment of a secure transit [13:49] protocol in the Strait of Hormuz such [13:51] that it guarantees Iranian dominance [13:54] according to the agreed protocol. The [13:56] full payment of Iran's damages according [13:59] to estimates. The removal of all primary [14:02] and secondary sanctions and resolutions [14:04] of the Board of Governors and the [14:06] Security Council, the release of all [14:08] blocked Iranian properties and assets [14:10] abroad, and finally the approval of all [14:13] these items in a binding Security [14:15] Council resolution. It is worth noting [14:18] that the approval of this resolution [14:19] will turn all these agreements into [14:21] binding international law and will [14:24] create important diplomat- an an [14:25] important diplomatic victory for the [14:27] nation of Iran. Now, the honorable prime [14:31] minister of Pakistan has informed Iran [14:34] that the American side, despite all [14:36] outward threats, has accepted these [14:38] principles as the basis for negotiations [14:42] and has surrendered to the will of the [14:43] Iranian nation. [14:45] Accordingly, at the highest level, it [14:47] has been decided that Iran will engage [14:49] in negotiations in Islamabad with the [14:51] American side for a period of 2 weeks [14:54] based solely on these principles. [14:57] Okay. It is emphasized that this does [14:59] not mean the end of the war. Iran will [15:01] only accept the termination of the war [15:03] once the details, given the acceptance [15:05] of Iran's preferred principles in the [15:07] 10-point plan, are finalized in the [15:10] negotiations. [15:11] The negotiations will begin in Islamabad [15:13] on Friday, April 10th, with complete [15:16] distrust of the American side. [15:18] They throw that in. And Iran will [15:20] allocate 2 weeks for these talks. This [15:23] timeframe is extendable by mutual [15:25] agreement. [15:27] It is essential that during this period [15:29] complete national unity be maintained [15:32] and victory celebrations continue with [15:35] strength. [15:36] The current negotiations are national [15:38] negotiations and a continuation of the [15:40] battlefield. It is necessary for all [15:43] peoples, elites, and political groups to [15:45] trust and support this process, which is [15:47] under the supervision of the leader of [15:49] the revolution and the highest levels of [15:51] the system, and to strictly avoid any [15:53] divisive comments. [15:55] In If If the enemy's surrender on the [15:57] battlefield is transformed into a [15:59] decisive political achievement in the [16:01] negotiations, we will celebrate this [16:04] massive historical victory together. [16:06] Otherwise, we will fight side by side on [16:09] the battlefield until all the demands of [16:11] the Iranian nation are met. Our hands [16:13] are on the trigger and the moment the [16:15] slightest error is committed by the [16:17] enemy, you'll be It will be responded to [16:19] with full power. Now, this seems like [16:21] insane ramblings [16:23] and there's a lot of lies in there. [16:26] But let me explain where they're coming [16:27] from. [16:30] I'm repeating myself cuz I've said this [16:31] many times. [16:33] Iran never ever thought that they could [16:36] defeat the United States and Israel [16:38] militarily. That is not their goal in [16:40] this war. [16:41] Their definition of victory, I know it's [16:44] hard for for Westerners to get this in [16:46] their heads. Their definition of victory [16:48] is that they live to fight another day. [16:51] This goes back to the whole Shiite [16:53] ethos. [16:55] Shiite Islam began as a minority group [16:57] within Islam that was battered and [17:00] beaten but continued to persevere. [17:03] That's their whole way of thinking. So, [17:05] to them, if the great America and Israel [17:09] and their air forces failed to bring [17:12] them down, then they won. They [17:14] prevailed. They're still standing. [17:17] That's victory and that's the way [17:19] they're painting this, that the [17:20] Americans backed down, the Americans [17:22] couldn't take it any longer, that they [17:24] backed down and they won. Okay? Now, [17:28] so that was a kind of crazy piece cuz [17:30] it's the statement of the of the uh of [17:32] the regime. But then, we have a more [17:36] analytical piece and this was published [17:38] the same day [17:40] um [17:41] just uh [17:43] few hours later. [17:45] Is the recent ceasefire a sign of US [17:48] defeat? [17:49] Okay. [17:51] And look what it does here. This is a [17:52] fascinating piece. Not nearly as long, [17:54] don't worry. [17:55] After weeks of confrontation, a [17:56] temporary 15-day ceasefire between Iran, [17:59] the United States, and its allies has [18:00] been announced while negotiations to [18:03] solidify it are still ongoing. Different [18:05] narratives have emerged to explain this [18:09] sudden halt in fighting. [18:11] Different narratives have emerged [18:13] to explain it. [18:15] Why? Why the sudden halt in fighting? [18:18] Some analyses argue that the ceasefire [18:20] is not the result of a balanced [18:21] agreement, but rather the consequence of [18:24] the opposing sides' failure to achieve [18:26] its stated objectives. Very interesting. [18:28] They're saying, you know why this [18:29] ceasefire is actually happening? It's [18:31] actually happening. This is the more [18:32] interesting piece, by the way. [18:34] The ceasefire is actually happening [18:36] because the Americans {slash} the [18:39] Israelis, but mainly the Americans, [18:41] failed to achieve their objectives and [18:43] now they want an off-ramp. [18:45] There's some truth to that. [18:47] This perspective attempts to present an [18:50] alternative view of the balance of power [18:53] by pointing to political and field [18:55] developments, one that can be outlined [18:58] through 10 key points. And now they give [19:00] This isn't their 10-point plan. No, no. [19:02] This is 10 [19:05] uh [19:07] reasons why this ceasefire happened. [19:10] Okay? [19:12] It's fascinating. Check this out. This [19:15] is their analysis. [19:17] And you might wonder why they do pieces [19:19] like this. I'll say it at the outset. [19:20] I've mentioned this before. [19:22] Like when they're when they're [19:23] predicting Trump, they'll give all the [19:25] different options of what he might do. [19:26] Like why are they doing that? Why are [19:27] they showing their cards? They're not [19:28] showing their cards. They always want to [19:31] show that they've got it all figured [19:33] out, that they're not being fooled. So, [19:35] if they put forward all the different [19:36] possibilities [19:38] and they put forward all this analysis, [19:41] it makes them seem like they're not [19:43] being fooled. It's It's It's It's a [19:45] strange game, but that's what they're [19:47] doing. So, here we go. We got these 10 [19:48] points now. Check this out. [19:50] Number one. [19:52] The United States failed to achieve its [19:55] most important strategic goal, [19:57] overthrowing the Islamic Republic, [19:59] turning it into an unattainable ambition [20:01] for Washington and its allies. In this [20:03] regard, Iran's adversaries effectively [20:06] suffered a major defeat. There you go. [20:08] Exactly what I just said before. [20:10] Their definition of defeat is that they [20:13] failed to take down the regime. We don't [20:15] think of that as victory, right? Like we [20:17] battered them, we killed all their [20:19] leadership. We like beat them to a pulp, [20:22] knocked out their whole air force, their [20:23] whole navy, every [20:24] No, but to them, you wanted to bring [20:27] down the regime and you failed and [20:29] therefore you lost. [20:31] Okay? That's their number one point that [20:33] of what led to the ceasefire. Number [20:35] two, Donald Trump and his allies had [20:37] claimed they would destroy Iran's [20:39] military capabilities through force, [20:42] they now acknowledge that this goal [20:44] appears unrealistic. [20:46] See? Iran's still fighting. They didn't [20:48] They didn't destroy through force. Like [20:50] that. Number three, the US and its [20:52] partners had aimed to bypass political [20:54] agreements and use military force to [20:56] remove Iran's nuclear materials and [20:59] force submission. [21:01] In this area, they faced what is [21:02] described [21:04] by this article as a historic failure, [21:06] meaning they didn't remove the nuclear [21:08] materials. Another failure. [21:10] Number four, Washington had demanded [21:12] limits on Iran's missile capabilities, [21:14] threatening military action otherwise. [21:16] However, in Iran's 10-point proposal, [21:19] reportedly accepted by Trump, not [21:21] really, [21:22] there is no indication of such [21:23] restrictions. [21:25] Okay. [21:26] Number five, the US and its allies had [21:29] planned to weaken Iran through military [21:31] strikes and by activating separatist [21:33] groups, like the Kurds and and uh other [21:37] separatist groups. These efforts, [21:39] however, were neutralized early and [21:42] failed to materialize. [21:44] Number six, the stated goal of reopening [21:46] the Strait of Hormuz through military [21:47] means was not achieved. They failed They [21:50] failed to open the Strait of Hormuz. [21:52] Instead, Iran's preconditions regarding [21:54] a new legal framework for the Strait [21:56] were reportedly accepted as a basis for [21:58] negotiations. This is real. This is a [22:00] very serious point here. Let me Let me [22:02] drill down on this a little bit. [22:04] You see, the Strait of Hormuz, [22:06] Iran is on one bank of it and the other [22:09] Gulf states are on the other bank of it, [22:11] UAE and Saudi Arabia, there's other [22:13] states there, Oman. [22:16] Why does Iran get to close it and [22:17] control it? [22:18] It's an international waterway. They're [22:20] not allowed to. This is pure pure um [22:24] thuggish terrorist mafia tactics, where [22:27] you grab something that you're not [22:29] entitled to [22:31] and then start negotiating. [22:34] And then start negotiating based on the [22:36] fact that you're holding it, right? So, [22:38] they grabbed the Straits of Hormuz and [22:40] say, "We control the Straits of Hormuz." [22:42] And now, the fact that [22:45] the fact that there's any negotiation [22:46] over the Strait of Hormuz is itself [22:49] giving in to them. [22:50] I think this I think that's a that's the [22:52] biggest mistake. I think the ceasefire [22:54] is a mistake for a number of reasons, [22:55] but that's right right near the top of [22:57] the list. [22:58] Okay. [23:00] Number seven, while the US and its [23:03] allies had called for regime change, not [23:05] only did the Islamic Republic remain in [23:07] place, but it also strengthened its [23:09] position, rejecting a 15-point proposal [23:12] and advancing its own 10-point plan. [23:14] Look at that. How did they strengthen [23:16] their position? You might say, "What [23:17] What do you mean you strengthened your [23:17] position? You're all dead." No. [23:19] You see, for for them, the fact that [23:22] that the basis of negotiation is not the [23:25] American 15-point plan, but their [23:27] 10-point plan. Whether it is or it [23:28] isn't, I don't know. [23:30] But you see how they're framing it? [23:31] That's considered a victory [23:33] for them. Number eight, in the field of [23:35] air defense, the US and its allies are [23:37] described as having suffered setbacks [23:40] that could mark a turning point in [23:41] military assessments. I don't know what [23:43] they're referring to there. [23:45] Number nine, the perceived damage to US [23:47] mil- military credibility [23:50] may have broader implications. Meaning, [23:52] if the US was incapable of bringing down [23:55] the Iranian regime, if the US was [23:56] incapable of getting the Straits of [23:58] Hormuz open, [24:00] that is damage to US military [24:02] credibility and it will have broader [24:05] implications, potentially affecting [24:07] global security order and altering [24:09] existing power structures. US failure. [24:12] This is a real This is This is a really [24:14] important point. [24:16] And I hope the White House reads this. [24:18] Because what they're saying is, "Look, [24:20] guys, [24:22] if you were incapable of opening the [24:24] Straits of Hormuz, if you were incapable [24:25] of defeating us, [24:27] then you now look weak on the world [24:29] stage." [24:31] And that's going to have global [24:32] implications and it's going to re- It's [24:34] going to reorient power structures. They [24:36] might be right. Number 10, regional [24:39] allies, and this is a this sort of flows [24:41] from number nine. Number 10, regional [24:43] allies of the United States are said to [24:45] have reconsidered their reliance on [24:47] Washington. [24:49] That is real. [24:51] You think the Saudis and the Emiratis [24:53] want this war to end [24:55] with Ghalibaf and Aragchi with these [24:58] with the remainder of the regime still [24:59] in power? [25:01] You think they'll be happy about that? [25:04] After everything they've been through [25:05] now for the last few months and what the [25:07] relations are going to look like down [25:08] the road and the regime starts [25:09] rebuilding itself and is still in power? [25:11] You think they want that? You think [25:13] they're going to trust the United States [25:14] to to see things through? [25:19] Regional allies of the United States are [25:21] said to have reconsidered their reliance [25:23] on Washington, a shift that could lead [25:25] to significant developments in [25:27] international relations moving forward. [25:29] There it is. [25:30] Very very interesting piece. [25:33] Is the recent ceasefire a sign of US [25:35] defeat? And they And they lay out 10 [25:37] reasons why they they they they believe [25:40] that it is. Before we go on, [25:43] um [25:44] I just want to ask you to sign up for [25:46] the Israel 365 Action Newsletter. This [25:49] is the organization that I lead. 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We have very informative [26:36] webinars with top experts [26:38] on uh on on a whole range on all the [26:41] range of issues that we deal with, [26:42] geopolitical experts. So, you you want [26:44] to get plugged in, go there, just put in [26:46] your name, your email address, and [26:49] you'll start getting our weekly [26:50] newsletter. We're not going to bombard [26:51] you, you'll get a weekly newsletter that [26:53] gives you updates on what's really going [26:55] on in Israel and links to a lot of [26:57] important information. [26:58] israel365action.com. [27:00] All right. [27:02] Now, [27:03] uh a few more items on the ceasefire [27:05] before we wrap up this video. So, let's [27:07] talk about the Lebanon situation cuz in [27:10] the on WANA also, they have this ticker [27:13] sort of of of uh updated stories. [27:16] And the top story there right now is [27:18] that Ghalibaf, that's the speaker of the [27:20] house who's who's doing the [27:22] negotiations. He's this murderous thug. [27:25] We've talked about him in previous [27:26] videos. If he if he ends up being the [27:31] the guy who remains in power working [27:32] with the Americans, the Iranian people [27:34] are not going to tolerate that and [27:36] you're going to see more of an uprising. [27:37] He is the most vicious [27:39] uh member of the regime. [27:42] Uh [27:43] Anyway, so he put out a tweet saying, [27:45] "Time is running out." Look what he [27:47] wrote here. This is a tweet of his or a [27:49] post on X, whatever they're called these [27:50] days. Number one, Lebanon and the entire [27:53] resistance axis, [27:55] the resistance axis is the Houthis, [27:56] Hezbollah Hamas [27:58] as Iran's allies form an inseparable [28:01] part of the ceasefire. [28:04] Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, that's [28:05] the Pakistani Prime Minister, publicly [28:07] and clearly stressed the Lebanon issue. [28:09] There's no room for denial and [28:10] backtracking. [28:13] Ceasefire violations carry explicit [28:15] costs and strong responses. Extinguish [28:17] the fire immediately. In other words, [28:19] what Ghalibaf is saying here, they're [28:21] panicking over the fact that Israel is [28:22] continuing to strike Hezbollah in [28:24] Lebanon. [28:26] Cuz they're saying Hezbollah's got to be [28:27] part of the of the of the ceasefire. [28:31] Now, I find this kind of comical in a [28:33] way because Iran has loved to play this [28:36] game for years, claiming that Hezbollah [28:38] is an independent Lebanese organization, [28:40] even though everyone knows that [28:42] Hezbollah is an arm of Iran. Again, [28:44] Hezbollah is not really a proxy of Iran. [28:47] I've said this before. Very important [28:48] point. Hezbollah is not a proxy of Iran. [28:51] The Houthis are a proxy of Iran. They're [28:52] an independent organization. They get [28:54] funding, they get weapons. They're a [28:55] proxy. [28:57] Hezbollah is Iran. It's like the foreign [28:59] legion [29:00] of Iran. [29:02] They're just not in Iran physically, [29:04] they're in Lebanon, but they're they are [29:05] Iran. Like when when the head of [29:07] Hezbollah was killed, Nasrallah, he was [29:11] his appoint- his successor was appointed [29:13] in Tehran by the Iranian regime, okay? [29:16] They're just a branch of Iran. So, when [29:19] Hezbollah is still fighting Israel, that [29:22] is Iran fighting Israel. [29:25] And it they used to always deny that [29:28] Hezbollah was an arm of Iran. And now [29:29] they're saying that they there's no [29:31] ceasefire unless the war against [29:33] Hezbollah also stops, essentially [29:34] acknowledging that they're part of their [29:36] military. So, it's a little bit comical [29:38] there. [29:39] >> [snorts] [29:39] >> Um Now, why are they so panicked about [29:41] it? Why don't they just allow you know, [29:43] throw Hezbollah under the bus? Why are [29:45] they so panicked about it about ending [29:48] about ending the attacks on Leb- on on [29:50] Hezbollah? Their whole I mean, the [29:52] regime's about to collapse. Why are they [29:54] worried about this one proxy [29:56] not proxy, this one like I just said, [29:58] this one arm of theirs [30:01] you know, they're willing to blow up the [30:02] whole thing because Israel is still [30:04] attacking Hezbollah. [30:06] So, there's a there's an analysis piece [30:08] up on WANA also explaining their [30:11] behavior. [30:13] And explaining the bind that they're in. [30:14] It's a very revealing piece and it's not [30:17] so long, okay? [30:18] I'll just read you a few I won't read [30:19] you the whole thing. I'll read you the [30:20] key paragraphs. Urgency of a strategic [30:23] Iranian response to the Lebanon crisis. [30:26] That's the title of the piece. That [30:28] there's an urgent need for a strategic [30:31] Iranian response to what's going on [30:33] there. [30:34] The large-scale attack launched by [30:35] Israel against Lebanon since yesterday [30:37] afternoon has been described they always [30:39] use that language by military analysts [30:42] as the most significant foreign assault [30:44] in the country's history. [30:46] Okay. [30:47] And it's a massive catastrophe and they [30:49] talk about [30:51] and they quote Israel's defense minister [30:53] Katz saying how how widespread it the [30:55] attack is. And now look what it says [30:57] here. [30:58] And then they say what's driving the [30:59] escalation is that Netanyahu is trying [31:01] to save himself politically. What should [31:03] be done? This is the key. Look at this. [31:07] According to this perspective, Israel [31:08] may be anticipating a direct military [31:11] retaliation from Iran and its allies [31:13] which could serve to objectives. In [31:15] other words, what Israel wants to [31:16] accomplish. Number one, disrupting [31:19] ongoing diplomatic efforts such as the [31:20] anticipated talks in Islamabad mediated [31:23] by Pakistan. [31:24] And creating justification for broader [31:27] regional escalation. [31:30] Okay? In other words, Israel wants the [31:31] war to escalate. They don't want the [31:33] ceasefire. They want to scuttle the [31:35] talks and therefore Israel is just [31:37] hammering Hezbollah because they they [31:39] they want the ceasefire to fall apart. [31:42] For this reason, any response [31:45] must be carefully calculated and [31:47] strategically timed. [31:49] The apparent delay in Iran's reaction [31:52] may reflect an effort to assess the full [31:54] scope of the situation. What are they [31:55] doing? [31:56] This is called C.Y.A. They're covering [31:59] their butts. [32:01] Because they're not step [32:04] If they're going to agree to a ceasefire [32:07] but Hezbollah is still getting hammered [32:10] and they're doing nothing about it and [32:11] they stopped firing rockets at Israel [32:13] because of the ceasefire, then they're [32:15] looking like completely impotent and [32:18] abandoning Hezbollah and they look [32:20] totally weak. [32:22] So, they're covering themselves by [32:24] saying, well, the delay in response, the [32:26] apparent delay in Iran's reaction is [32:29] really just because they're assessing [32:31] the situation. Okay. At the same time, [32:33] proponents of a stronger response argue [32:36] that any retaliatory action must impose [32:38] significant costs on Israel enough to [32:40] force a reassessment within Netanyahu's [32:43] government. So, if we're going to [32:45] respond, you got to respond really [32:46] really hard. Among the proposed targets [32:49] are key energy infrastructures. It says [32:51] what what they would hit in Israel. [32:54] And then it says the article is [32:55] referring to an Al Jazeera piece they [32:57] mentioned near the beginning of the [32:58] article. I didn't read that paragraph. [32:59] The article also criticizes the Lebanese [33:01] government for its silence in the face [33:04] of the attacks. Meaning, they're this is [33:06] their way of of criticizing the Lebanese [33:08] government because the Lebanese [33:09] government is not really stepping up to [33:11] defend Hezbollah. They really want to [33:12] get rid of Hezbollah. [33:14] So, so they're calling them out. They're [33:16] kind of warning them. [33:18] Public sentiment on the ground in [33:20] Lebanon reflects growing frustration. [33:22] Okay. And then it says look at the look [33:24] at how it ends. Ultimately [33:27] the response to the current crisis from [33:29] this viewpoint should be both innovative [33:31] and decisive combining swift diplomatic [33:34] initiatives with strong political [33:36] messaging and potentially calibrated [33:39] military action. They're they're [33:41] covering their their butts because they [33:43] know that they're not going to take [33:45] military action against Israel for its [33:47] attacks in Lebanon. So, they're saying [33:49] that they're going you know, if [33:51] ultimately the response is probably [33:53] going to be something diplomatic and and [33:56] political and calibrated military [34:00] action. [34:01] Figures such as Abbas Araqchi, that's [34:03] the foreign minister of Iran, are [34:05] specifically mentioned as key actors who [34:08] should take a leading role. The argument [34:10] concludes that failure to act promptly [34:13] could mark the beginning of a decline in [34:15] Iran's influence in Lebanon emphasizing [34:18] the urgency of the moment. This is an [34:20] awesome awesome closing sentence. Let's [34:23] look at it again. [34:24] The argument concludes meaning this [34:26] article is concluding. Failure to act [34:29] promptly failure of Iran to act promptly [34:32] to defend Hezbollah to do something [34:35] about what's happening in Lebanon while [34:37] they have a ceasefire with America and [34:38] they're allowing Hezbollah to get [34:40] hammered [34:41] so failure to act promptly could mark [34:45] the beginning of a decline in Iran's [34:48] influence in Lebanon. [34:50] That would be a terrible thing. Iran [34:52] can't lose its influence in Lebanon and [34:54] this emphasizes the urgency of the [34:56] moment. Very revealing line about the [34:59] bind that they're in. They need to [35:02] respond. They need to flex their muscles [35:04] and show that they're still the primary [35:06] player in Lebanon. [35:08] But if Hezbollah is getting hit and [35:10] they're doing nothing [35:14] and they're [35:15] and they're impotent to do anything [35:18] then they look weak and it's the [35:20] beginning of the downfall of the regime. [35:22] They can't allow that. They can't allow [35:25] themselves to look weak. The thing that [35:27] they fear most, what they fear most is [35:30] not attacks, it's not damage to this [35:33] bridge or that plant or or that military [35:37] base. That's they they they don't care [35:40] that much about those things in the end [35:42] of the day. What they care about is is [35:45] saving face and not looking weak in the [35:48] eyes of the public in Iran because [35:50] that's what could really topple the [35:52] regime. [35:53] Anyway, that's so that's what the [35:55] Iranians are saying. That's what they're [35:56] saying about the ceasefire deal. If you [35:57] think about everything I've said in this [35:58] video, the chances that the ceasefire [36:01] deal is going to go anywhere I think are [36:02] very slim. Um [36:05] meaning it could be temporary [36:07] but there's no way to have a lasting [36:09] ceasefire with these with these [36:12] fanatical Shiite twelver Muslims. [36:14] Especially if all they're doing in their [36:16] media is trash talking how we America [36:18] lost the war. [36:19] If the ceasefire does hold and they [36:21] declare victory this way [36:23] um there'll be some truth to it. [36:26] Because you can't [36:29] the only way to defeat the regime is [36:31] that it's clear that they're defeated [36:33] and then we have a chance to actually [36:34] move past this evil. [36:36] Until then, we're going to be dealing [36:38] with these guys. That is just the [36:40] reality. [36:42] All right, folks. [36:43] Thanks for watching. I hope you found [36:45] this [36:46] uh edifying, interesting [36:48] and uh I can't stress enough. It's very [36:50] important to read the the enemy media. [36:54] You'll learn a lot about how they're [36:55] thinking. [36:56] All right, God bless. Thanks for [36:57] watching.
